Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Fluctuation: Pay Attention to the Transformation of Later Trading Logic" [2] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory trend. The market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected in December [5][6]. - Steel supply and demand are both weak. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Iron ore is also expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. Group 4: Steel Analysis Supply - The output of the five major steel products increased this period. The output of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coils increased. The output of electric - arc furnace steel contributed more to the increase [5][12]. Demand - The apparent demand of all steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [5]. Inventory - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories continued to decline, but the pace of decline slowed down [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [5]. Price Forecast - The pressure level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The pressure level of hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [5]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Supply - The daily output of molten iron this week was 234.68 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 tons. It is expected to continue to decline and may fall below 230 tons. The domestic iron ore arrival at ports was low this period, but the shipment was active. The overseas port inventory was at a high level [5][17]. Price Forecast - It is expected that iron ore will continue to fluctuate. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. Group 6: Trading Strategy - Maintain the judgment of the short - term oscillatory trend of steel and ore. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations [5]. - Pay attention to the time inflection point in December when the market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected [6]. Group 7: Important Information - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [7]. - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from a loss to a profit year - on - year [7]. - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1.561 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period of last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period of last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period of the year before last [7]. - In November 2025, the floating value of the coking coal long - term contract price linked to steel increased by 78 yuan compared with October [7].