Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the black building materials - steel and ore sector [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - It is expected that the steel and ore markets will show a volatile trend, and neither has broken through the resistance levels. The trading strategy includes short - term operations for single - side trades, continuing to hold the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread with an adjusted stop - loss and take - profit, and seizing opportunities to go long on the rebar - to - iron ore ratio [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore all rose and then fell. They all closed down at night [1] 2. Important News - By the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [1] - In February 2026, China's stainless steel imports were 122,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,200 tons (15.32%) and a year - on - year decrease of 37,400 tons (23.39%). From January to February 2026, the total stainless steel imports were 267,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54,600 tons (16.93%). In February 2026, the domestic stainless steel exports were 260,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,400 tons (11.78%) and a year - on - year decrease of 15,200 tons (5.53%). From January to February 2026, the total stainless steel exports were 492,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 262,700 tons (34.78%). In February 2026, the net export volume was 137,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,600 tons (56.49%). From January to February 2026, the net export volume was 225,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 208,000 tons (48.00%) [1] - Iran refused to accept US President's special envoy Witkoff and Trump's son - in - law Kushner as US negotiators, accusing them of "perfidy" [1] - Since March 25, the atmospheric diffusion conditions in Handan City have deteriorated, and the heavy - pollution weather emergency command center decided to launch a level - II emergency response from 14:00 on March 25, 2026 [1] - Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations stated that non - belligerent countries' ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination [1] - Iran rejected the US - proposed cease - fire plan and put forward five conditions for a cease - fire [1] 3. Market Logic - On the 25th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3,240 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coil was 3,300 yuan, unchanged [1] - On the 25th, the market prices of major imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port fell by 3 yuan per wet ton [1] - On the 25th, the spot market of port coke remained stable, the trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market improved, the total inventory of the two ports increased compared to the previous working day, with Rizhao Port's inventory increasing by 1 to 46, Qingdao Port's inventory increasing by 1.5 to 80, and the total inventory reaching 126, an increase of 11 compared to last week [1][2] 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trades, short - term operations are recommended [2] - For the spread trading, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread, with the stop - loss level of the spread raised to 140 and the take - profit level around 200 [2] - For the rebar - to - iron ore ratio, seize opportunities to go long on the rebar - to - iron ore ratio (go long on rebar and short on iron ore), with the target ratio above 4, while also paying attention to the impact of the later main contract roll - over [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore closed higher, and they also closed higher during the night session [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The US government proposed a 15 - item conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, and is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [1]. - US President Trump said the US is communicating with the "right people", and Iran "wants to reach an agreement", also claiming success in the Iran issue [1]. - Iran's new supreme leader's military advisor emphasized that Iran will stop the war only after getting all compensations, having all economic sanctions lifted, and obtaining international legal guarantees of US non - interference [1]. - In February 2026, the total energy consumption of member enterprises decreased by 2.91% year - on - year, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.66% year - on - year, the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 1.43% year - on - year, and the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.05% year - on - year [1]. - In February 2026, the crude steel output of 69 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - On the 24th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, up 10 yuan [1]. - On the 24th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port remained stable. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 794 yuan per wet ton, unchanged [1]. - On the 24th, the spot market of port coke remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market improved, the quantity of coke collected at the two ports increased slightly compared with the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports continued to increase [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - It is expected that steel and ore will fluctuate with a bullish bias. The support level for rebar futures is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200; for hot - rolled coil, the support level is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350; for iron ore futures, the support level is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [1]. - For unilateral trading, short - term operations are recommended. For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. The closing spread on Tuesday night was 180, the stop - loss spread is recommended to be raised to 140, and the take - profit level is around 200 [1]. - The rebar - to - iron - ore ratio is 3.82. It is recommended to take the opportunity to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, that is, go long on rebar and short on iron ore, with the target ratio rising to 4 [1]. - Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the later main contract roll - over [1][2].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Fluctuation: Pay Attention to the Transformation of Later Trading Logic" [2] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory trend. The market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected in December [5][6]. - Steel supply and demand are both weak. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Iron ore is also expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. Group 4: Steel Analysis Supply - The output of the five major steel products increased this period. The output of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coils increased. The output of electric - arc furnace steel contributed more to the increase [5][12]. Demand - The apparent demand of all steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [5]. Inventory - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories continued to decline, but the pace of decline slowed down [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [5]. Price Forecast - The pressure level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The pressure level of hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [5]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Supply - The daily output of molten iron this week was 234.68 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 tons. It is expected to continue to decline and may fall below 230 tons. The domestic iron ore arrival at ports was low this period, but the shipment was active. The overseas port inventory was at a high level [5][17]. Price Forecast - It is expected that iron ore will continue to fluctuate. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. Group 6: Trading Strategy - Maintain the judgment of the short - term oscillatory trend of steel and ore. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations [5]. - Pay attention to the time inflection point in December when the market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected [6]. Group 7: Important Information - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [7]. - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from a loss to a profit year - on - year [7]. - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1.561 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period of last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period of last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period of the year before last [7]. - In November 2025, the floating value of the coking coal long - term contract price linked to steel increased by 78 yuan compared with October [7].