交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-11-17） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3190，基差137；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存415.75万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线走平；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 利多： 需求尚可，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游需求步入季节性淡季，预期悲观 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-11-12） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3190，基差165；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存425.7万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent increase in spot gold prices, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, driven by expectations of the U.S. government shutdown ending and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1][5][18] - Spot gold rose by 2.84% to $4,114.96 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.76% to $4,120.60 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in the gold market [1][18] - The article notes that the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with rebar and iron ore prices slightly increasing, while coking coal and glass prices declined [1] Group 2 - In international news, the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill aimed at ending a 40-day government shutdown, which may lead to the resumption of normal government data releases [5] - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on market liquidity and investor sentiment, suggesting that the resolution may alleviate some of the liquidity risks previously heightened by the shutdown [18] - The article also mentions the release of new policies by the State Council of China to promote private investment, which includes measures to encourage private capital participation in urban infrastructure projects [6] Group 3 - The article provides insights into the oil market, noting a 1.32% decline in SC night market prices, attributed to Saudi Arabia's significant reduction of official selling prices for crude oil to Asia in response to increased supply from OPEC+ producers [3][12] - The copper market is highlighted, with tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, while the overall demand remains weak due to sluggish performance in the real estate sector [3][19] - The article mentions the performance of the shipping industry, particularly the European shipping index, which saw a decline, indicating pressure on freight rates due to insufficient price increases from major shipping companies [2][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position in steel products [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, with rebar rising and hot-rolled coils falling during the night session. The supply of the five major steel products decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, total inventory dropped by 0.67%, and weekly consumption fell by 5.4%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased this week, inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot-rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand for both declined. With blast furnace production cuts and maintenance in some areas, partial enterprise production cuts, and full losses in electric arc furnace steel, the supply of crude steel is expected to continue to shrink, while the demand side remains weak. The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. It is recommended to continue holding long positions around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, with rebar rising and hot-rolled coils falling during the night session [1] Important Information - In October, the bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.9%. The new loans in October may be less than the same period last year, and the slowdown in government bond issuance may lead to a decline in social financing. The supply of the five major steel products this week was 8.5674 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 185,500 tons, a decline of 2.1%; the total inventory was 15.0357 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 101,900 tons, a decline of 0.67%; the weekly consumption was 8.6693 million tons, a decline of 5.4%, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.2% month-on-month, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [1] Market Logic - The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased this week, inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot-rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand for both declined. With blast furnace production cuts and maintenance in Shanxi, Tangshan in Hebei and other places, partial enterprise production cuts, and full losses in electric arc furnace steel, the supply of crude steel is expected to continue to shrink, while the demand side remains weak. The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000 [1] Trading Strategy - The 3000 level of rebar still has strong resilience. It is recommended to continue holding long positions around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View The report presents the basis data of various commodities as of October 31, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products, aiming to show the price relationship between spot and futures of different commodities [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - IF: Spot price was 4641, down 69. Basis was 9, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.26 [2]. - IH: Spot price was 3012, down 35. Basis was - 4, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.56 [2]. - IC: Spot price was 7331, down 55. Basis was 89, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.75 [2]. Black - For example, Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3230, unchanged. Basis was 124, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.48 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke spot price was 1710, unchanged. Basis was - 67, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.45 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol spot price was 2125, unchanged. Basis was - 55, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.88 [3]. - East China's PTA spot price was 4514, up 16. Basis was - 72, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.68 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper spot price was 87540, down 510. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.26 [4]. - Aluminum spot price was 21280, up 80. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of 0.27 [4]. Agricultural Products - Jiangsu's 43% soybean meal spot price was 2970, up 30. Basis was - 51, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.21 [5]. - Jiangsu's first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8460, up 60. Basis was 332, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.25 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by multiple factors, with steel prices in a downward cycle, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply side is expected to shrink [3][6]. - The five major steel products are in a state of inventory reduction, with increased production and apparent demand this week. The price of raw materials has increased, and it is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate within a range [3][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Analysis - **Macro Environment**: The 14th Five - Year Plan and other policies create a loose macro - environment, which is beneficial to the market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to prohibit the addition of new production capacity [3][15]. - **Supply Side**: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased slightly this week. The main steel - producing areas such as Hebei and Shanxi have implemented crude steel production control plans, with a 30% production limit in Tangshan. The 1 - 9 month crude steel production in China has continued to decline year - on - year, and the iron water production is expected to continue to decrease [3][15]. - **Demand Side**: The peak season for steel terminal demand in October was lackluster, and it is expected to gradually shift to the off - season. Downstream new construction is mainly concentrated in the first quarter of next year, with slow current new construction. Mechanical steel use has increased, but the expected decline in household appliance steel use is significant, and automobile steel use remains stable [3][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.64% week - on - week to 1.51376 billion tons, but increased by 22.58% compared with the same period last year. The production increased by 1.15% week - on - week, and the apparent demand increased by 2.65% week - on - week to 9.164 million tons, reaching a six - month high [17]. Raw Material Market - The upstream coal mine safety inspection has led to an increase in coke prices. The 47 - port iron ore inventory has continued to accumulate, and the global iron ore shipment has reached a high level in the same period in recent years [3][22]. Price Forecast and Trading Strategy - **Rebar**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with a pressure level of 3230 and a support level of 3000. When approaching 3000, it is recommended to try to go long, and stop loss if it effectively breaks through [3][4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The pressure level is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and close attention should be paid to the support level of 750. Short - term operations with stop - loss settings are recommended [4]. Important News - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, the central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations, improve the monetary policy framework, and combat virtual currency operations and speculation [5]. - According to the production scheduling report of three major white goods, the total production scheduling in November 2025 decreased by 17.7% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [5]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will use the carbon market to promote green and low - carbon emissions reduction in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries [5]. - Henan Province has issued a plan to complete the technological transformation or elimination of steel production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level by the end of 2025 and optimize the industrial layout by 2027 [5].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For螺纹, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset. The main factors are weak real - estate demand, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction [2]. - For热卷, due to weakening supply and demand, continued inventory reduction, export difficulties, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction, it should also be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **热卷**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role [7]. 2. Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3240, and the basis is 107, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3350, and the basis is 5, which is neutral [7]. 3. Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 437.48 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 337.57 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. 4. Disk Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [7]. 5. Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **热卷**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. 6. Factors Analysis - **螺纹** - Bullish factors: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [4]. - Bearish factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4]. - **热卷** - Bullish factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [8]. - Bearish factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the expectation is pessimistic [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis data of various futures varieties on October 20, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products. It shows the spot price, spot price change, basis, basis - corresponding contract, and basis deviation degree of each variety [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - The spot price of IF on October 20, 2025, was 4538, with a change of 24, a basis of 31, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.76 [2]. - The spot price of IH was 2975, with a change of 7, a basis of 4, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [2]. - The spot price of IC was 7070, with a change of 54, a basis of 160, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.96 [2]. Black - For Shanghai's rebar, the spot price on October 20, 2025, was 3200, with no change, a basis of 155, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.84 [3]. - Beijing's rebar had a spot price of 3190, a change of - 10, a basis of 145, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.14 [3]. - Shanghai's hot - rolled coil had a spot price of 3270, no change, a basis of 55, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.80 [3]. - Shandong's iron ore had a spot price of 824, no change, a basis of 57, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.46 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke had a spot price of 1656, no change, a basis of - 54, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.40 [3]. - Port - warehouse receipt coking coal had a spot price of 1600, a change of 72, a basis of 312, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.32 [3]. - Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal had a spot price of 753, a change of 9, a basis of - 48, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.26 [3]. - Shahe's low - price glass had a spot price of 1135, a change of - 15, a basis of 44, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.36 [3]. - Hubei's low - price glass had a spot price of 1090, a change of - 20, a basis of - 1, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.28 [3]. - Yinchuan's ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5530, no change, a basis of - 26, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.34 [3]. - Inner Mongolia's ferromanganese had a spot price of 6050, no change, a basis of 262, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.91 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol had a spot price of 2256, no change, a basis of - 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - Henan methanol had a spot price of 2350, no change, a basis of 84, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.47 [3]. - Lunan methanol had a spot price of 2500, no change, a basis of 234, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Hebei methanol had a spot price of 2630, no change, a basis of 364, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.86 [3]. - East China PTA had a spot price of 4299, a change of - 18, a basis of - 85, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - East China PP had a spot price of 6490, a change of 20, a basis of - 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - North China LLDPE had a spot price of 6840, a change of 10, a basis of - 39, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.10 [3]. - High - end PVC had a spot price of 4630, a change of 15, a basis of - 90, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.65 [3]. - Low - end PVC had a spot price of 4560, a change of 45, a basis of - 160, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - East China asphalt had a spot price of 3550, no change, a basis of 409, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Shandong asphalt had a spot price of 3330, a change of - 30, a basis of 269, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - South China asphalt had a spot price of 3500, no change, a basis of 359, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Inner - market ethylene glycol had a spot price of 4077, no change, a basis of 74, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Soda ash had a spot price of 1130, a change of 10, a basis of - 89, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.67 [3]. - Shandong pulp had a spot price of 4960, a change of 10, a basis of - 196, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.74 [3]. - East China short - fiber had a spot price of 6075, a change of - 25, a basis of 47, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.56 [3]. - Urea had a spot price of 1490, no change, a basis of - 110, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - Shanghai natural rubber had a spot price of 14510, a change of 30, a basis of - 300, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.74 [3]. - Whole - latex natural rubber had a spot price of 13810, a change of 115, a basis of - 1000, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.04 [3]. - Qingdao 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1825, a change of 10, a basis of 773, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [3]. - Styrene had a spot price of 6370, a change of - 115, a basis of 5, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.90 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper had a spot price of 85650, a change of 875, a basis of 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.30 [4]. - International copper had a spot price of 75790, a change of 710, a basis of - 80, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.69 [4]. - Aluminum had a spot price of 20930, a change of - 20, a basis of 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [4]. - Zinc had a spot price of 21870, a change of 20, a basis of - 40, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.60 [4]. - Lead had a spot price of 16925, a change of 25, a basis of - 200, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.31 [4]. - Nickel had a spot price of 121300, a change of - 250, a basis of 400, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.78 [4]. - Tin had a spot price of 280000, a change of - 1000, a basis of 660, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.35 [4]. Agricultural Products - 43% Jiangsu soybean meal had a spot price of 2870, no change, a basis of - 25, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.08 [5]. - Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil had a spot price of 8540, a change of 50, a basis of 242, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.12 [5]. - Guangdong average - price 36% rapeseed meal had a spot price of 2480, a change of 40, a basis of 130, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Market average - price rapeseed oil had a spot price of 10420, a change of 77, a basis of 502, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [5]. - Guangzhou 24° palm oil had a spot price of 9290, a change of 80, a basis of - 28, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.75 [5]. - National cotton had a spot price of 14480, a change of 45, a basis of 1015, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Guangxi white sugar had a spot price of 5770, a change of - 20, a basis of 342, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.26 [5]. - Yunnan white sugar had a spot price of 5840, a change of - 20, a basis of 412, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Hebei Shijiazhuang fresh eggs had a spot price of 2890, a change of - 110, a basis of 120, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.05 [5]. - Liaoning Dalian fresh eggs had a spot price of 2820, a change of - 110, a basis of 50, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.16 [5]. - Shandong Dezhou fresh eggs had a spot price of 2750, a change of - 100, a basis of - 20, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.24 [5]. - Henan Shangqiu fresh eggs had a spot price of 2800, a change of - 100, a basis of 30, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.36 [5]. - Bei'an soybeans had a spot price of 4050, no change, a basis of - 36, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.78 [5]. - Jiamusi soybeans had a spot price of 4120, no change, a basis of 34, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.45 [5]. - Changchun corn had a spot price of 2240, no change, a basis of 102, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [5]. - Weifang corn had a spot price of 2360, no change, a basis of 222, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [5]. - Changchun starch had a spot price of 2580, no change, a basis of 170, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.67 [5]. - Weifang starch had a spot price of 2605, no change, a basis of 225, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Henan Kaifeng pigs had a spot price of 11400, a change of 160, a basis of - 755, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.94 [5]. - Hebei jujubes had a spot price of 9600, no change, a basis of - 1785, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.84 [5]. - Shandong apples had a spot price of 6400, a change of - 1000, a basis of - 2465, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.98 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pressure of simultaneous weakening of supply and demand persists, but the futures price is still expected to bottom out and rebound in the medium term [1] - In the third quarter, rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, basically erasing the gains from the "anti - involution" speculation. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to decline, demand will seasonally weaken, and inventory is expected to continue to fall, but at a relatively slow pace [8] - From October to November, the market is dominated by weak reality, and prices tend to fluctuate and decline. Starting from December, the market is dominated by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [8] - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and switch to going long on dips in the medium - term if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views - **Market Trend in Q3**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell. In early July, due to the "anti - involution" policy, industrial products rose significantly, but later, affected by high prices and demand concerns, prices declined from August to September [8][9] - **Supply**: Marginal profit is close to the break - even point, so steel mills have strong motivation to reduce production. In November, environmental protection restrictions may increase, and the "anti - involution" policy may be phased out, leading to a decline in supply. However, a decrease in production may cause a decline in iron ore and coke prices, resulting in a "negative feedback" cycle [8] - **Demand**: Downstream demand will seasonally weaken in the fourth quarter, reaching a low point during the Spring Festival next year. Before December, the market anticipates the weak demand in the off - season, pressuring the futures price. After December, the market is optimistic about the peak - season demand next year, boosting the futures price [8] - **Inventory**: Although the current inventory is relatively high, it is likely to continue to decline in the fourth quarter, but at a slow pace. If inventory rises, the price of rebar and hot - rolled coils will face pressure, forcing steel mills to cut production. The total inventory will seasonally rise before the Spring Festival, but the market will focus on the rising speed [8] - **Market Judgment**: From October to November, the market is affected by weak reality, and prices tend to fall. Starting from December, the market is driven by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to rebound. The switch in rhythm depends on technical patterns, policies, and supply - demand conditions [8] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term trading suggests shorting on rallies. In the medium - term, if a clear bottom pattern appears, switch to going long on dips and hold the position until after the Spring Festival next year [8] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3.2 Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils Spot and Futures Market in Q3 - **Price Trend**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, returning to the level at the beginning of July, erasing the "anti - involution" gains. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased, with the increase in rebar's basis being more significant [8][9][14] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between different contracts, regions, and varieties showed differentiation. The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar decreased, while the spread between the 10 and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coils increased. The spread of the 10 - contract of the coil - to - rebar spread reached a record high, while the 01 and 05 contracts were within a reasonable range [22][25][28] - **Profit Analysis**: The profit of upstream and downstream processing slightly improved, which may be related to the "anti - involution" policy in the third quarter. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level and may rise, while the ratio of rebar to coke has declined and may continue to fall [30][33] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis of Steel in Q4 - **Supply**: Steel production has been gradually decreasing, mainly due to the off - season consumption, the National Day holiday, and the "anti - involution" policy. The production of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills has decreased. The production of iron water remains high, but steel mills are likely to cut production in the future due to falling profits [36][38][47] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils during the National Day holiday reached a record low in recent years. The recovery of steel demand after the holiday is not satisfactory. The real estate market is still under pressure, which drags down the demand for steel. However, steel exports increased in September, mainly driven by the high - speed growth of billet exports [54][55][58] - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products has increased rapidly, especially for hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils, which reached record highs in the same period, indicating that the supply of downstream industrial materials exceeds demand. In the fourth quarter, steel mills still face great pressure to reduce inventory, but inventory is likely to decline seasonally [68][73][76] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - **Market Outlook**: The Langer Iron and Steel PMI index indicates pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal patterns suggest that the market is likely to be weak first and then strong in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, the downward trend since August is expected to continue, but in the medium - term, the futures price may bottom out and rebound [79][83][87] - **Investment Strategy**: For short - term trading, short on rallies. For medium - term trading, go long on dips if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low purchasing willingness of traders, and the downstream real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it should be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coil, with weakening supply and demand, decreasing inventory, blocked exports, and potential domestic policy efforts, it should also be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [7]. Summary by Related Catalog Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, traders' purchasing willingness is low, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3230, and the basis is 127; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities nationwide is 4.673 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; neutral [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Likely Factors**: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may be implemented; neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3340, and the basis is 55; bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities nationwide is 3.293 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; bearish [7]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of hot - rolled coil's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9].