1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 9 月 25 日星期四 | | | | 国，在世贸组织当前和未来谈判中，将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇。商务 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 500 | 反弹 | 部召开新闻吹风会介绍，这是中方坚定维护多边贸易体制、积极落实全球 | | | | | 发展倡议和全球治理倡议的重要举措，必将为促进全球贸易投资自由化便 | | | | | 利化注入强心剂。商务部强调，中国仍然是世界上最大的发展中国家，中 | | | 中证 1000 | 反弹 | 国发展中国家的地位和身份没有改变。《中国地方政府债券蓝皮书（2025）》 | | | | | 披露，2025 年地方政府债券呈现三大特点：一是新增限额大幅增加、发 | | | | | 行规模再创新高；二是置换节奏明显前置、新增债发行相对偏慢；三是投 | | 2 | 年期国债 | 震荡 | 向领域进一步拓宽、用于基建项目的专项债额度有所减少。展望未来，财 | | | | | 政发力仍是当前扩大有效需求、提振信心和预期、扭转信用收缩趋势的优 | | | | | 先选 ...

每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，下游地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3270，基差115；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存485.21万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路对待 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-9-24） 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力； ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - **Threaded Steel**: The demand shows no sign of improvement, the inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the weak real - estate market, cooling future demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With a positive basis, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Given the weakening market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [7]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Fundamentals**: Negative due to poor demand, rising inventory, and a weak downstream real - estate industry [2]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 93 and a spot price of 3220 [2]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 35 major cities is 487.23 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. - **Disk**: Negative as the price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and an increase in short positions [2]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Neutral as both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect [7]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 36 and a spot price of 3400 [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 33 major cities is 292.44 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [7]. - **Disk**: Neutral as the price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [7]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and a decrease in short positions [7]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the seasonal off - peak of downstream demand and pessimistic expectations [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - high - level shock; Coal and coke - shock; Rolled steel and screw steel - weak; Glass - shock; Soda ash - shock [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - shock; CSI 300 - upward; CSI 500 - upward; CSI 1000 - upward; 2 - year treasury bond - shock; 5 - year treasury bond - shock; 10 - year treasury bond - rebound; Gold - high - level shock; Silver - high - level shock [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - range shock; Pulp - weak consolidation; Offset paper - bearish; Edible oils - wide - range shock; Oilseeds and meals - shock; Live pigs - shock and slightly stronger; Rubber - shock; PX - wait - and - see; PTA - shock; MEG - wait - and - see; PR - wait - and - see; PF - shock and consolidation [6][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple industries including black, financial, light industries, etc. It provides investment ratings and detailed analyses of the supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors for each product in these industries, guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The Guinean government's requirements boost market sentiment. The daily average pig iron output has recovered to 240,000 tons. Global iron ore shipments have decreased significantly, mainly due to the sharp decline in Brazilian shipments. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term fundamentals have limited contradictions. Attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2] - **Coal and coke**: The purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills has been lowered. The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation of steel and coal mines and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, while demand has recovered slightly. The short - term sentiment in the black sector has cooled, and coal and coke show a low - level shock trend [2] - **Rolled steel and screw steel**: The fundamentals are weak. The steel industry's stable - growth policy does not restrict steel production, so supply remains high. The demand for building materials has declined, and the total demand is hard to reverse seasonally, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Profits have declined, and the 2601 contract of screw steel is running weakly below the 60 - day line [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may cause short - term fluctuations in the market. The cost of production lines will increase. The spot in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key for the 01 contract lies in the path of cold repair. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] - **Soda ash**: The short - term market has stood above the 60 - day line support, and future attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. There was capital inflow in communication equipment and electronic components sectors and outflow in catering, tourism, and pharmaceutical sectors. The element market reform pilot will be carried out, and US CPI data has been released, which affects market sentiment. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Its currency, financial, and commodity attributes all support the price, and the market still has a certain demand for hedging. Although the logic of the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate policy and hedging sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a high - level shock [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased slightly, showing a peak - season but not prosperous situation. The arrival volume is expected to increase this week, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory has been decreasing, and the cost support has weakened. The delivery willingness of the 09 contract has increased. Logs are expected to show a range shock [6] - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has increased, but the profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure. The demand improvement is yet to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to show a weak consolidation [6] - **Offset Paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, but September is the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. It should be treated bearishly [6] - **Edible Oils**: The expected increase in the production of US soybeans and Malaysian palm oil has increased the supply pressure. The export tax of Indonesian palm oil has been adjusted, and the import of domestic rapeseed has shrunk. The demand for double - festival stocking is weak. Edible oils are expected to show a wide - range shock [6] - **Oilseeds and Meals**: The market expects a good harvest of US soybeans, and the export has not improved substantially. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal has been accumulating. Oilseeds and meals are expected to show a shock trend [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and the slaughter rate has also increased. With the recovery of the slaughter rhythm, the supply of large pigs has increased, and the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is expected to widen slightly [7] - **Rubber**: The supply in the rubber - producing areas is affected by weather conditions, and the raw material price is high. The demand of tire enterprises has declined slightly, and the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [10] - **PX**: There are concerns about weak US demand and global supply surplus. The supply and demand of PX have both increased, but the short - term supply - demand has weakened, and the price follows the oil price [10] - **PTA**: The cost support is average, the supply has increased, and the demand of downstream polyester factories has rebounded. The supply - demand has improved, and the price follows the cost in the short term [10] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the future arrival volume is not high. The supply pressure has increased, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supports the price [10] - **PR**: Affected by the decline in international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and the demand has also declined. PR is expected to run weakly with the raw materials [10] - **PF**: The cost support is weak, but the orders in the downstream yarn market have improved slightly, and the inventory of short - fiber factories is low. PF is expected to show a shock and consolidation trend [10]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 - Report Type: Steel Futures Morning Report - Covered Products: Rebar (Threaded Steel) and Hot-Rolled Coil 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - **Rebar**: Overall, the market is complex with mixed signals. The demand is weak, the real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, but there are factors like low production and inventory, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. It is recommended to approach with a high - level oscillation mindset [2][3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand situation has weakened, exports are blocked, but there are also positive factors such as acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. A high - level oscillation approach is also suggested [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: Demand shows no improvement, downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. The inventory is at a low level with a slight decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3240, and the basis is 123, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.5377 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, considered neutral [2] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [2] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2] - **Expectation**: The real - estate market remains weak, future demand will cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [2] Factors - **Positive**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - **Negative**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, considered neutral [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3350, and the basis is 52, a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.8578 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, considered neutral [6] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and the short position is increasing [6] - **Expectation**: The market supply - demand has weakened, exports are blocked, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [6] Factors - **Positive**: Acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - **Negative**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]

Group 1 - Domestic futures night trading opened with mixed results, with copper rising by 0.57% and tin increasing by over 1% [1] - Rebar and coking coal both declined by 0.39% [1] - Glass prices saw an increase of 0.68% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic rebar prices have shown a mild increase, but the growth is limited due to high supply, weak demand, and continuous inventory accumulation [1][2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Rebar production increased by 59,100 tons week-on-week to 2,205,600 tons, and year-on-year it rose by 583,000 tons [1] - Social inventory rose by 212,600 tons week-on-week to 4,537,700 tons, and year-on-year it increased by 109,300 tons [1] - Factory inventory decreased by 49,100 tons week-on-week to 1,696,200 tons, but year-on-year it increased by 167,500 tons [1] - Rebar apparent demand rose by 94,100 tons to 2,042,100 tons, but year-on-year it decreased by 141,600 tons [1] - The overall supply-demand data is weak, with high supply and stable weak demand [2] Market Conditions - The steel market is facing high supply levels, weak demand, and a seasonal increase in inventory [2] - Steel prices have been fluctuating downwards, while coking coal prices have risen for seven consecutive rounds, and iron ore prices remain firm [1] - Steel mills' profits have been compressed to low levels, but the recent improvement in export orders is noted [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Spiral Steel and Hot Rolled Coil Morning Report (2025-8-25) [1] - Analyst: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **For Threaded Steel (Rebar)**: The fundamentals show weak demand, low - level inventory with a slight decrease, and weak purchasing willingness among traders. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory in 35 major cities is increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Expecting high - level oscillations considering the weak real - estate market, cooling demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - **For Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. With a positive basis, inventory in 33 major cities is increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Also expecting high - level oscillations due to weakened market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [6]. Group 4: Factors Analysis For Threaded Steel (Rebar) - **Positive Factors**: Low production and inventory levels, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - **Negative Factors**: Continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand lower than the same period [3] For Hot - Rolled Coil - **Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand entering the seasonal off - season with a pessimistic outlook [8] Group 5: Data Indicators Price - related - Threaded steel spot price: 3300 [2] - Hot - rolled coil spot price: 3420 [6] - Other price data includes Southeast Asian prices for threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet price, and domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [15][18][23] Production - related - Data on blast furnace operating rate, threaded steel short - process electric furnace operating rate, threaded steel weekly output, and hot - rolled coil weekly output are presented [29][32][35] Profit - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil disk profit, threaded steel blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit, and hot - rolled coil blast furnace estimated profit are provided [41][44][46] Inventory - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil social and steel mill inventories are included [52][55][58] Consumption - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption, apparent consumption year - on - year, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented [64][69][73] Market - related - Data on building materials trading volume, real - estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction, and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, and cement price are provided [74][77][81]