节后⾸⽇煤焦钢矿品种价格整体震荡偏强运⾏，核⼼依然在于⾼铁⽔ 对于炉料需求端的⽀撑以及铁矿、焦煤供给端扰动的预期，进⽽给到 钢材⽀撑。相较⽽⾔，需求⽋佳叠加成本端松动，再度主导合⾦玻璃 纯碱品种表现偏弱。夜盘时段，受宏观情绪影响，板块价格整体回 升。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-10-10 基本⾯驱动有限，政策预期仍有扰动 ⿊⾊：基本⾯驱动有限，政策预期仍有扰动 节后首日煤焦钢矿品种价格整体震荡偏强运行，核心依然在于高铁水 对于炉料需求端的支撑以及铁矿、焦煤供给端扰动的预期，进而给到 钢材支撑。相较而言，需求欠佳叠加成本端松动，再度主导合金玻璃 纯碱品种表现偏弱。夜盘时段，受宏观情绪影响，板块价格整体回 升。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿需求高位支撑，供应整体平稳，铁矿基本面压 力不大，四季度重要会议以及宏观预期扰动不减，行业需求欠佳限制 铁矿上方空间，预计短期价格震荡。废钢供需双降，节后首日价格微 跌，当前成材价格承压，电炉利润不佳，废钢自身基本面驱动不足， 预计短期价格跟随成材。 2、碳元素方面，节后短期铁水仍持高位，提供刚需支撑，焦化利润 略有好转但 ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 790. 5 | 10. 0 | 1. 28% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 459. 565 | 12. 200 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) ...

煤焦周度观点 ➢ 阅兵后国内上游产量迅速恢复，蒙煤甘其毛都和策克口岸维持高位通关量，现实供给边际近一周变化较小；但最近供给侧的干预 预期或在政策面消息的影响下表现得较为反复，造成了盘面价格的较大幅度波动。 ◆ 2、需求： Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ➢ 节前对于原料的补库操作已经开启，目前现货需求支撑相对偏强。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外降息如期宣布，盘面计价此前已较为充分，靴子落地后影响有限；国内宏观预期依然偏强，对黑色估值形成一定支撑。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 从现实基本面来看，供需边际双强，宏观层面亦有国内强预期支撑，短期估值或延续偏强震荡。 煤焦基本面数据变化 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：现实基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ◆ 1、供应： 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind 富宝资讯：、国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：Mysteel、iFind ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-25 宏观预期好转，价格宽幅震荡 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：国内钢材市场涨跌互现，午后受螺纹钢期货上涨带动，现货市场成交放量，全天成交较上一交易日 有所好转。螺纹钢主力合约收于3164元/吨；热卷主力合约收于3357元/吨。现货方面，钢材现货成交整体一般，全 国建材成交103859吨，成交量表现相对昨日小幅增加。 供需与逻辑：昨日全国各区域建筑钢材成交量有所好转。期货螺纹钢震荡偏强，现货表现坚挺，节前下游需求存 在补库需求，商家惜售意愿偏强，随着"反内卷"相关政策逐步兑现，追涨情绪回落，短期市场交易主线可能重回 供需基本面，短期建筑钢材价格进入宽幅区间震荡阶段，后续关注旺季需求表现。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 策略 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水维持高位，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走弱。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于803.5元/吨。现货方面，唐 山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳，贸 ...

2025年09月24日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：贵金属价格继续走高，纽约金突破 3800 美元/盎司，市场资金继续做多。 | | 金 | 基本面：美联储主席鲍威尔公开讲话称美股估值相当高，重申面临通胀上升与就业下滑的双重挑战，未明确 | | 属 | 表态 10 月是否降息；美联储官员对于降息依旧存在分歧，联储执委鲍曼警告已"落后于形势"，地区联储主 | | | 席古尔斯比呼吁谨慎行事；美国 9 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 52，连续第二个月扩张，预期 52.2，8 月前值 | | | 53，去年同期为 47.3。其中，就业指数从 8 月的 53.1 降至 52.6；新订单指数环比下降。美国 9 月 Markit 服 | | | 务业 PMI 初值 53.9，为 2025 年 6 月以来的最低值，预期 54，8 月前值 54.5，去年同期为 55.2。其中，就业 | | | 指数从 8 月份的 52 降至 51.6，为 2025 年 4 月以来的最低值；物价指数较上月下降，为 2025 年 4 月以来的 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Optimistic macro expectations, low inventories, and consumer recovery have led to an upward trend in copper prices. With the approaching likely Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected 'Golden September and Silver October' consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to continue rising in the near - term [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices rose significantly. On September 3, 2025, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 80,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous trading day. - The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Metals Market was 80,500 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It was at a premium of 90 - 300 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2509 contract. The supply of imported and domestic copper in the spot market has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The start time of LME's Asian trading on Wednesday was postponed by 90 minutes, and the reason is unknown. - The lack of confidence in the copper market was due to weak downstream consumption. However, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected consumption peak season in China, copper prices started to rise. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, up 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery of the economy and providing some support for copper demand. - The recent rise in gold prices has also boosted copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Although the Shanghai copper main contract once broke through the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, the overall trend was a bit sluggish. After the price soared, long - position holders were more willing to reduce their positions, resulting in a long upper shadow on the K - line. - Given the low spot inventory and the expected consumption peak season, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18, copper prices may have formed an upward trend in the near - term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Wide - amplitude oscillation due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Coke: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2][16] 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs are in a state of wide - amplitude oscillation or oscillation and repetition, with the trend intensity of all commodities being 0, indicating a neutral market outlook [2][4][7] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of iron ore (12601) closed at 777.0 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase. The positions increased by 12,928 hands. Among spot prices, imported ores like Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), etc. all rose by 6.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ores remained stable. Some basis and spread values also changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased. The trading volume and positions of RB2510 decreased, and those of HC2510 also changed. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of RB2510 increasing by 3 yuan/ton and that of HC2510 decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, with the export price up 2.2%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 6798.3 million tons, up 11.0% year - on - year, but the export price was down 10.3%. In the steel union's weekly data on August 28, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5250 yuan/ton and 5680 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the ferrosilicon basis increasing by 8 yuan/ton [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 3, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported. In May and June 2025, India's silicomanganese export volume changed month - on - month and year - on - year [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. The trading volume and positions of JM2601 increased, while those of J2601 changed slightly. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of JM2601 in Shanxi increasing by 6.5 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [14] Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of different log contracts decreased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts changed significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the spot - 2509 basis decreasing by 46.3% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are likely to have an oscillatory correction because of the rapid inventory accumulation [2][7][8]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to show wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Logs are likely to have repeated oscillations [2][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 771.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan or 0.72%. The positions decreased by 948 hands. Among the spot prices, imported ore prices generally increased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3047 yuan/ton and 3310 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.49% and 0.48%. The trading volumes, positions and their changes, spot prices, basis and spreads all had corresponding data [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, and the export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.2%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 6798.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. According to the weekly data on August 28, the production, inventory and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes. In mid - August 2025, the production and inventory data of key steel enterprises also changed [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon all had specific data [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 2, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions and the procurement prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon by some steel mills were reported [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of coke and coking coal all had corresponding data [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1 [15]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of different futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of logs all had specific data, and the price changes of different types of logs in different regions were also reported [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report indicates that iron ore is experiencing repeated macro - expectations and is in a wide - range shock state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 787.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.0 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.38%. The position was 473,608 lots, with an increase of 1,118 lots [1]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices (such as 65% Karara fines, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jinbuba ore) decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton, while 56.5% Super Special ore remained unchanged. Domestic ore prices (66% Langna ore, 65% Laiwu ore) remained stable [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (12601 vs Super Special) increased by 3.0 to 93.9, and the basis (12601 vs Jinbuba) increased by 0.8 to 44.2. Spreads such as 12509 - 12601 decreased by 5.0 to 15.5, and 12601 - 12605 decreased by 1.0 to 24.0. The difference between Karara fines and PB fines remained at 112.0, and the difference between PB fines and Super Special decreased by 2.0 to 108.0 [1]. Macro and Industry News - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on August 31, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of trend intensity being [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Outlook**: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it will experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton with a 1.93% increase. The position increased by 17,754 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (I2601 to Super Special) decreasing by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,129 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spot prices in different regions [7]. - **News**: On August 28, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data also had corresponding changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Outlook**: Affected by market information disturbances, they will experience wide - range fluctuations within the day. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts changed slightly. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained stable, while the price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had corresponding changes [10]. - **News**: Multiple price quotes from the ferroalloy industry were released, and Ningbo Iron and Steel set a bid price for silicomanganese [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton with a 1.8% increase. The closing price of the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.2% increase. Spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, and basis and spread values changed [14]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [14]. Logs - **Market Outlook**: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][16]. - **Fundamentals**: Different contract prices, trading volumes, and positions on the log futures market had various changes. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [17]. - **News**: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [19].