投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-27 现实⽭盾仍存，盘⾯⽀撑有限 节后钢材供需双弱，库存仍在累积，基本⾯缺乏亮点，且市场对旺季 需求预期⼀般，同时铁矿⽯库存压⼒仍存，春节后煤矿复产速度将加 快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压⼒仍存，相关品种价格表现 承压。受南⾮锰矿消息扰动影响，合⾦盘⾯表现强势，但盘⾯涨⾄⾼ 位将⾯临明显的卖保压⼒。 节后钢材供需双弱，库存仍在累积，基本面缺乏亮点，且市场对旺季 需求预期一般，同时铁矿石库存压力仍存，春节后煤矿复产速度将加 快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压力仍存，相关品种价格表现 承压。受南非锰矿消息扰动影响，合金盘面表现强势，但盘面涨至高 位将面临明显的卖保压力。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节后 需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两 会，宏观预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢供需双弱，基本面驱动 有限，价格波动不大。 2. 碳元素方面：节后焦炭供需均有继续增长预期，随着物流运输的 逐渐恢复，焦企累库情况将得到缓解，焦炭供需结构将继续保持健 康，现货预计暂 ...

如果你还在期待金价能立刻反弹、再创新高，那么今天的数据和背后的逻辑，或许需要你冷静下来重新思考。 价格在冲击一个关键阻力位后迅速崩 塌，背后是技术图形走坏、海量资金获利了结、以及宏观预期悄然生变的三重压力。 近十年的市场规律显示，每当黄金走到这种位置、出现这种信号时，后续往往都会走出一段相似的调整剧本。 历史不会简单重复，但市场的情绪和 资金行为模式，却常常押着相同的韵脚。 今天，我们就来拆解这重重信号，看看市场到底在告诉我们什么。 先来看最硬核的盘面数据。 2026年2月25日收盘，伦敦金现报每盎司5142.7美元。 这个数字背后，是当天高达5237.71美元的开盘冲击，和最低下探 至5093.17美元的深度回落。 一正一反，超过140美元的剧烈震荡，最终以一根长长的上影线和实体阴线收盘。 国内市场的沪金主力合约报1144.96元每克，下跌了6.58元，跌幅 0.57%。 上海黄金交易所的黄金T D品种收于1143.97元，下跌3.97元。 国内金价跌幅相对较小，显示出一定的抗跌性，这通常与国内坚实的实物消 费需求和央行持续的购金行为有关。 然而，在全球定价的体系下，国际金价的走势具有主导性。 单日下跌近百 ...

一、市场行情态势回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡，收于 748.5 元/吨，较前一个 交易日收盘价下跌-4 元/吨，跌幅-0.53%，成交 19.0 万手，持仓量 54.1 万手， 增仓 1.2 万手，沉淀资金 89.02 亿。铁矿下跌至预判支撑 730 附近之后，呈现一 定抗跌，短期以偏强反弹思路对待。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 750 跌-2，超特粉 638 跌-2， 掉期主力 98.85(+0.05）美元/吨。掉期反弹走强后陷入窄幅震荡，现货微跌。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 785.3 元/吨，基差 36.8 元/吨， 基差小幅走扩；铁矿 5-9 价差 16.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 11.5 元。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，澳洲发运恢复；本期到港继续走弱，天气影响 到港节奏，后期有望回升；需求端，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂盈利率走弱， 刚需边际回升，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，铁矿港口库存止增，到 港回落叠加钢厂补库使得港口累库压 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 限购政策刺激反弹 短期仍建议空配 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 价格：预期区间在 93~100 美元/吨（61%指数），对应连铁在 710~760 元/吨。 策略：区间操作，卖出看涨期权。 成文时间： 2025 年 2 月 26 日 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策增量、产业政策执行力度、供给减弱速度 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：昨日受房地产"沪七条"政策消息刺激，钢铁板块出现集体反弹，夜盘开始理性回归， 当前市场交易弱现实，楼市限购放松政策更多提振楼市信心，而短期对钢材需求提振有限，短期 铁矿石仍属于空配品种，预计价格仍将保持弱势震荡，后期关注两会政策增量情况（3 月 4 日召 开）。 证监许可【2011】1452 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 海外宏观方面，美国经济呈现整体扩张放缓、多领域结构分化的运行态势。 四季度美国 GDP 增速大幅放缓，个人消费成为主要拖累，同时通胀粘性仍存；整 体呈现内需偏弱、增长降温、各部门复苏节奏显著不一的格局。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，澳洲发运恢复；本期到港继续走弱，天气影响 到港节奏，后期有望回升；需求端，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂盈利率走弱， 刚需边际回升，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，铁矿港口库存止增，到 港回落叠加钢厂补库使得港口累库压力阶段性缓解，但整体总库存压力仍在 积累。盘面表现承压，节后即将召开全国两会，关注市场情绪变化。 库存压力仍在积累，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节后需求预 期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两会，宏观预期仍 存，关注市场情绪变化。 三、宏观层面 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 国内方面，春节期间出行、消费及 1 月关键经济数据表现呈现差异化。1 月 社融开局平 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 788.6 元/吨，基差 48.1 元/吨， 基差变化不大；铁矿 5-9 价差 16 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 11 元。 二、基本面梳理 节前发运受到天气影响，目前已经恢复，春节期间没有明显扰动，没有意外 扰动的情况下供应端仍偏宽松，关注天气对发运到港节奏的扰动；需求端铁水产 量边际回升，刚需仍旧偏稳，节前仍有钢厂生产事故发生，可能影响节后铁水复 产节奏，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，整体库存压力仍在积累，节前市场 情绪走弱，盘面表现承压，节后即将召开全国两会，关注市场情绪变化。 整体而言，库存压力仍在积累，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节 后需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两会，宏观预 期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内维持窄幅震荡，收于 740.5 元/吨， 较前一个交易日收盘价下跌-5.5 元/吨，跌幅-0.74%，成交 22 万手，持仓量 51.9 万手，增仓 2.4 万手 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-13 节前需求回落，盘⾯表现承压 假期临近钢材端累库加快，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现疲软。铁矿⽯ 总库存压⼒持续增加，当前市场对节后需求预期⼀般，盘⾯表现承 压。煤炭供应端存在扰动，煤矿节前放假增多，但煤焦补库进⼊尾 声，需求⽀撑有限，盘⾯低位宽幅震荡。玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价 格。 假期临近钢材端累库加快，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现疲软。铁矿石 总库存压力持续增加，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承 压。煤炭供应端存在扰动，煤矿节前放假增多，但煤焦补库进入尾 声，需求支撑有限，盘面低位宽幅震荡。玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价 格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开 重要会议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场 情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，钢厂补库基本结 束，预计节前现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-12 淡季⽭盾积累，盘⾯表现承压 钢材节前需求回落，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现疲软。钢⼚复产节奏 偏缓，但铁矿⽯发运端存在扰动，盘⾯低位震荡。冬储临近尾声，煤 焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，盘⾯⽀撑有限。玻璃供应端存在扰动，但玻纯 供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 钢材节前需求回落，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现疲软。钢厂复产节奏 偏缓，但铁矿石发运端存在扰动，盘面低位震荡。冬储临近尾声，煤 焦补库支撑逐步转弱，盘面支撑有限。玻璃供应端存在扰动，但玻纯 供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开 重要会议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场 情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾 声，整体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The demand for steel before the festival has declined, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market is weak. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage is coming to an end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment is gradually weakening, and the support for the futures market is limited. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the supply - demand surplus suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Pay attention to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 2. Carbon Element - The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate [2] 3. Alloys - In the manganese - silicon market, supply is stronger than demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. In the silicon - iron market, both supply and demand are weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the trading activity in the market around the Spring Festival is low, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [3] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in the glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Commodity Analysis Steel - Before the festival, the demand weakens, and the futures market is weak. The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills remains stable, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the molten iron output increases slightly, the electric furnaces begin to shut down one after another, and the output of five major steel products decreases slightly. The demand for building materials weakens seasonally, and the manufacturing demand is also in the off - season. The pressure of steel inventory accumulation is emerging, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [7] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose. The demand for molten iron is still stable, and steel mills are accelerating the replenishment before the Spring Festival. As the replenishment progresses, the support for the price may gradually weaken. The inventory pressure is still accumulating, and the market sentiment has weakened recently. The futures market is under pressure. After the festival, the Two Sessions will be held, so pay attention to market sentiment changes [7][8] Scrap Steel - The electric furnaces are gradually shutting down, and the arrival of scrap steel at steel mills has decreased. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] Coke - Before the festival, the sentiment is average, and the futures market is under pressure to operate. The supply of coke has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory in steel mills has increased. The supply - demand structure of coke is relatively healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it remains stable for the time being, and the futures market still follows the cost - end coking coal [10] Coking Coal - More coal mines are on holiday, and the futures and spot are under pressure to oscillate. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [11] Glass - Before the festival, the contradictions are limited, and the price oscillates. There are expectations of disturbances in the supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [12] Soda Ash - The supply remains at a high level, and the price oscillates. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensified. The spot price may return to the price - cut channel, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [12][15] Manganese - Silicon - The inventory tends to increase, and there is still pressure above. The upstream inventory of manganese - silicon is high, but the cost price is firm, which makes it difficult for the futures price to continue to fall. The market trading is cold before the holiday, and the demand support for the price is weakening. The supply may increase after the festival, and the market inventory may further accumulate. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [16] Silicon - Iron - The trading atmosphere has become lighter, and the cost still provides support. The black - plate is under pressure in the off - season, and the market trading is rare before the holiday. The cost support of silicon - iron has become stronger. The demand support for the price is weakening, the production of silicon - iron remains at a low level, and the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [18] 6. Index Information - On February 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2383.17, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%. The steel industry chain index on February 10, 2026, is 1928.47, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a decline of 2.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.76% in the past month, and a decline of 2.40% since the beginning of the year. The PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04% [104][105]

中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-10 现实预期不佳，盘⾯仍有压⼒ 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯延续弱势。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，但铁矿⽯发运端存在扰动，盘⾯有企稳迹象。冬储临近 尾声，煤焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，盘⾯表现偏弱。玻璃供应端存在扰 动，但玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面延续弱势。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，但铁矿石发运端存在扰动，盘面有企稳迹象。冬储临近 尾声，煤焦补库支撑逐步转弱，盘面表现偏弱。玻璃供应端存在扰 动，但玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 1. 铁元素方面：库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当 前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开重要会 议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场情绪变 化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾声，整 体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随 ...