1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of coking coal 2605 soared, hitting the daily limit of 1289.5 yuan/ton with a single - day increase approaching 11%. The sharp rise was the result of the resonance of four core factors: geopolitical conflicts, tight supply - demand fundamentals, capital - driven short - squeezing, and positive macro - expectations, which reversed the previous weak market pattern and triggered a chain reaction in the black - series industrial chain [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Conflicts - Qatar's LNG facilities were attacked and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was tense, raising concerns about global LNG supply. Asian countries turned to coal for power generation, increasing the demand for coal and boosting the valuation of coking coal [5]. - The increase in natural gas prices led to an increase in the demand for coal - fired power generation, raising the valuation of coking coal and thermal coal [5]. - The conflict in the Middle East pushed up the price of methanol, improving the profit of coking by - products, increasing the willingness of coking enterprises to start production, and thus increasing the demand for coking coal [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - On the supply side, domestic coking coal supply was tight. Stricter safety and environmental inspections limited coal production, and imports could not effectively make up for the supply gap [8]. - On the demand side, it was the peak season after the Two Sessions. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased, steel demand recovered, and steel prices rose. The inventory of coking coal in major links was at a low level, and the demand for replenishment increased, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch [9]. - The spot price of coking coal was higher than the futures price, providing strong support for the futures price to rise [13]. 3.3 Capital - Driven Factors - The coking coal 2605 contract had experienced a continuous decline before, and the expectation of a rebound had accumulated. On March 23, it broke through the key resistance level, attracting technical funds to enter the market. The increase in trading volume and open interest led to a short - squeezing situation, accelerating the rise [14]. - The increase was mainly driven by institutional main funds. The top 10 long - position seats increased their positions significantly, and the concentration of funds continued to rise, making the rise explosive [19]. 3.4 Positive Macro - Expectations - Since 2026, domestic growth - stabilizing policies have been continuously strengthened, and positive policies in infrastructure and real estate have been implemented. The industrial economic data from January to February exceeded expectations, enhancing market confidence in economic recovery [20]. - Black - series commodities benefited from the economic recovery, and the market risk appetite increased. The allocation value of commodities as anti - inflation assets was highlighted, and overseas funds flowed into the domestic commodity market, promoting the rise of coking coal [20]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - In the short term, the coking coal 2605 contract has strong upward momentum, but three core variables need to be closely monitored: the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation, changes in the domestic coking coal supply - demand pattern, and capital flow trends [21].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, which in turn suppress precious metal prices due to inflation and recession concerns [1] - The increase in ETF holdings has resulted in higher volatility for gold, while weak U.S. employment data suggests that the U.S. may struggle to raise interest rates [1] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, and the relative stability of the U.S. dollar indicates that the long-term logic for precious metals remains unchanged [1] Group 2: Copper - The escalation of the Middle East situation has raised inflation concerns, while the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates emphasizes the uncertainty of the economic impact [2] - The spot treatment charge (TC) for copper concentrate continues to decline, and domestic copper inventories have decreased to 523,100 tons, indicating a recovery in downstream restocking and operations [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and tightening liquidity expectations are putting pressure on aluminum prices, with the industry operating at a slight increase in capacity utilization to 62.9% [2] Group 3: Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate has seen continuous inventory depletion post-holiday, with strong demand and rising production contributing to a favorable fundamental outlook [3] - The cobalt sector is experiencing tight raw material supply, while downstream demand remains cautious, leading to price fluctuations at high levels [3] - Rare earth prices have decreased on a month-on-month basis, but upcoming restocking plans in April and May are expected to provide some support for prices [3] Group 4: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are stabilizing after a previous surge, with tight supply conditions persisting, although downstream purchasing remains cautious [3] - The price of uranium has increased to $90 per pound in February, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, indicating a potential for further price increases [3] - Tantalum prices continue to rise due to supply shortages from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with demand from emerging industries like AI supporting high prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range with a downward shift in the center of gravity and a weak operation [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished steel continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center of gravity. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] - The finished steel is expected to move in a range [2] Aluminum - The inventory of the domestic alumina market continues to decline, but the decline rate narrows, and the overall inventory level is still high, with further prominent structural differentiation characteristics [2] - There is still an expectation of overseas electrolytic aluminum production cuts. Due to energy and logistics factors in Europe and the Middle East, some production capacities have entered the maintenance cycle, and the logic of global supply contraction remains intact [2] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operation remains stable, with limited incremental supply and overall stability [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% week - on - week, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend [2] - The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and the enterprise production schedule has covered March [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.9%. There is a co - existence of traditional peak - season demand recovery and short - term support from battery foils, but the Middle East war situation affects the air - conditioner foil production plan [2] - On Monday, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons week - on - week, showing a stockpiling trend in all three regions. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with a short - term range - bound oscillation [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various futures are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical conflicts, and macro - economic expectations, showing different trends including short - term shocks, upward or downward movements [1][3][7] - For different varieties, corresponding trading strategies are proposed, such as going long on dips, short - term long trading, etc. [1][4][7] Summary by Variety Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, with a significant drop in March supply. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The release of strategic reserves has limited ability to suppress price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips, focusing on the war situation [7] - **Methanol**: High domestic methanol production, significant reduction in port inventory, and good downstream demand. The market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [13] - **Ethylene glycol**: Inventory in the East China main port is decreasing, supply has decreased, and downstream demand has increased. The price increase is driven by oil prices, and it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [16] - **Synthetic rubber**: Affected by the Middle East military conflict, the supply of raw materials is tight. It is recommended to go long at the current low level [8] Metals - **Iron ore**: In March, supply and demand are both strong. The constraints on ore prices from high supply and high inventory may be alleviated. It may maintain high - level shocks in the short term and is bearish in the medium - to - long term [3] - **Steel rebar**: The supply and demand in the steel market are rising, and the inventory growth rate is slowing. Steel prices may be slightly stronger in the short term [3] - **Copper**: Domestic refined copper supply is strong. High copper prices suppress procurement, and social inventory is high. It is expected to remain in a shock pattern in the short term [9] - **Aluminum**: The suspension plan of Middle - Eastern aluminum plants has been postponed. Geopolitical risks dominate the market sentiment. Aluminum prices have upward momentum in the short term but need to beware of volatility [10] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to increase in March, demand has not fully recovered, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] Agricultural Products - **Soybean meal**: Supported by high - priced US soybeans and increased import costs, but the rise is restricted by sufficient downstream inventory. It is recommended to go long at low prices and be cautious about chasing highs [4] - **Palm oil**: Malaysian palm oil exports have increased significantly. Crude oil provides cost support, but domestic inventory pressure is high. It is expected to be in high - level shocks in the short term, and short - term long trading is recommended [4] - **Live pigs**: The pig price is in low - level shocks in the short term, and the downward space for futures prices is limited in the medium - to - long term [5] Others - **Ten - year treasury bonds**: The expected reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates is beneficial to the bond market. The bond market may continue to fluctuate in a triangle, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [11] - **Gold**: Due to the continuous Middle - East war and rising oil prices, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts has decreased. Gold has limited downward space in the short term and is expected to be in high - level shocks in the medium term [11] - **Platinum**: The Fed's consideration of relaxing bank regulations has increased the downward pressure on platinum in the medium - term [12] - **Glass**: The start - up of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, with poor profits and high inventory. The terminal real - estate demand is declining, and it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking coal**: The resumption of coal mines is restricted, and there is pressure on the fundamentals due to high Mongolian coal imports. The futures price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [1] Polyester - **Polyester bottle chips**: The production of polyester bottle chips and the polyester industry has increased. The decline in Asian PX operating rate and the rise of crude oil drive up the price of bottle chips. It is recommended to go long on dips [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances continue to suppress precious metal prices, with inflation expectations also contributing to this trend. Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to significant oil price increases, creating uncertainty that affects precious metals [1] - Despite weak U.S. employment data and economic performance, expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after geopolitical conflicts subside remain, while central bank gold purchases continue [1] Group 2: Copper - The unexpected weak U.S. non-farm payroll data has boosted expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for copper prices amid liquidity tightening pressures from U.S.-Iran conflicts [2] - Supply constraints are evident as copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) continue to decline, while demand is recovering as companies resume operations post-holiday, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment intentions [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has raised concerns about supply shortages, pushing LME aluminum prices to a nearly four-year high [2] - Supply disruptions are frequent, with Qatar Aluminum Industries halting production due to gas supply issues and Bahrain Aluminum facing transportation obstacles due to regional conflicts [2] Group 4: Tin - The supply-demand situation for tin is weak, with macroeconomic factors increasing price volatility. Progress in water extraction at Myanmar mines and the resumption of exports from Indonesia have led to marginally eased supply conditions [2] - Downstream enterprises are cautiously purchasing due to high inventory levels and uncertainties surrounding AI chip export regulations, which may suppress market sentiment [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong, with continuous inventory reductions observed post-holiday, while production is on the rise. The expected reduction in export tax rebates for battery products may lead to front-loaded battery demand [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand is cautious. Cobalt companies are extending their reach into electric new energy sectors, enhancing competitive barriers [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strategic premiums and supply-demand mismatches, with strong overseas demand and smooth cost transmission contributing to this trend [4] - The price of uranium has increased to $90 per pound in February, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [4] - Tantalum prices have surged due to supply shortages from mining accidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with emerging industries like AI servers and semiconductors driving terminal demand [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets were weak. The first price cut was implemented on Friday, with a reduction of RMB 50 - 55 per ton. Steel mills limited production this week due to environmental protection issues, resulting in a significant decrease in molten iron output, and the post - holiday restocking enthusiasm of downstream enterprises was average. The intermediate trading sector mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the overall online transactions showed mixed results. In terms of production areas, the coal mine output gradually increased after the post - holiday resumption, and the resumption accelerated after the Lantern Festival, with a slight increase in inventory. Although the resumption of coal mines is still restricted, the fundamental pressure of coking coal remains due to the high import of Mongolian coal. The current futures price is greatly affected by domestic and foreign macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts, and coking coal is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets were weak, and the first price cut of RMB 50 - 55 per ton was implemented on Friday [2]. - Steel mills' production was limited due to environmental protection, leading to a significant decrease in molten iron output. The post - holiday restocking enthusiasm of downstream enterprises was average, and the intermediate trading sector was wait - and - see. Online transactions were mixed [2]. - After the post - holiday resumption, coal mine output gradually increased, and the resumption accelerated after the Lantern Festival, with a slight increase in inventory [2]. - The resumption of coal mines is restricted, but the fundamental pressure of coking coal remains due to high Mongolian coal imports. The futures price is affected by macro and geopolitical factors, and coking coal is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total coking coal inventory | 10,000 tons | 1992.79 | 2063.29 | -363.36 | -17.61% | Weekly | | Total coke inventory | 10,000 tons | 984.67 | 980.03 | -7.92 | -0.81% | Weekly | | Average daily molten iron output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 227.59 | 233.28 | -5.69 | -2.44% | Weekly | | Profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises | RMB/ton | 17 | -7 | 1 | -14.29% | Weekly | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral, with prices expected to oscillate [1][2] - Iron ore: Cautiously bearish, with short - term downward pressure on prices [3][4] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Thermal coal: No specific strategy provided, prices in a narrow - range fluctuation [8][9] 2. Core Views - The steel market has poor sentiment, with building materials in a supply - demand weak situation and plate demand expected to improve; the iron ore market has strong supply and weak demand, and high inventory needs to be resolved by price decline; the coking coal supply is loose, and coke follows the weakening of finished products; the thermal coal price shows a narrow - range fluctuation, supported by imported coal [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures prices oscillated upward, while the spot trading was generally weak. The spot prices remained stable, and most regions did not follow the futures price increase. The trading volume decreased in the afternoon as the futures prices declined [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Near the Two - Sessions, macro - expectations are more volatile. Building materials have a supply - demand weak situation, with inventory rising seasonally. Plate production and sales have improved, and the demand is expected to further increase. High intermediate inventory suppresses price performance [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices oscillated upward, and the spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore in Tangshan ports were strong. The trading volume decreased by 31.90% compared with the previous day, and the daily average hot - metal output decreased by 5.69 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of iron ore remains high at high prices. The daily average hot - metal output has significantly declined, and the excessive supply and inventory suppress the price. The key to resolving high inventory is to reduce prices and suppress marginal supply [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is cautiously bearish, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coking coal production in the origin has basically returned to normal, and the trading atmosphere is average. The coke in some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin has started the first - round price cut. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level [6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coking coal supply is loose, with slight inventory accumulation, and the price oscillates. The coke follows the weakening of finished products, and the supply - demand weak situation remains unchanged [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, some coal mines' prices have increased, while some have decreased. At the ports, traders are more willing to sell, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and the actual trading volume is limited. Imported coal prices are high [8] - **Demand - Logic**: The post - holiday demand has recovered, and the domestic coal price has continued to rise slightly due to the import supply problem. The current price is in a narrow - range fluctuation [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The high shipping volume and high inventory pressure of iron ore are difficult to alleviate in the short term. The iron water output on the demand side has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. With the upcoming Two Sessions and positive macro - expectations, along with the futures still showing a BACK structure under a positive basis, the iron ore market will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated strongly during the day, closing at 753.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or - 0.13% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 240,000 lots, the open interest was 533,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.833 billion yuan. The iron ore stopped falling and rebounded as expected after falling to the previous low, and the short - term support below has moved up to around 745. It is still treated with a strong rebound idea in the near future [1]. - **Spot price**: The mainstream varieties of port spot, Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 2 to 753 yuan/ton, Super Special powder dropped 2 to 642 yuan/ton, and the main swap was 99.1 (+0) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to rebound and strengthen, while the spot price slightly declined [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the disc price was 781.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 28.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened; the iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 20.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13.5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The arrivals this period remained at a low level and decreased slightly month - on - month, but are expected to rebound later. The high shipping volume and high inventory pressure are difficult to alleviate in the short term [2]. - **Demand**: Due to the mismatch of blast furnace restart and maintenance time, the iron water output increased significantly month - on - month this period, the steel mill profitability rate slightly recovered, and the rigid demand increased marginally. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of iron water. Attention should be paid to the demand support after the festival [2]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory increased month - on - month, and the berthing inventory decreased. During the Spring Festival, steel mills mainly consumed inventory, and the factory inventory decreased significantly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: Domestic policies are synergistically strengthened, consumption is high - frequency warm, and the real estate market has marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, and the liquidity environment was stable, which was beneficial to short - term interest rates. Exports were stable, travel and consumption were active during the Spring Festival, and social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, supporting domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. Real estate transactions were still at a low level, but the listing prices in first - and second - tier cities rebounded slightly, and the signal of policy optimization increased, but the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed. The special bond quota was raised, but the investment structure was adjusted, and the physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support for the black chain [4]. - **Overseas**: Overseas consumer confidence has recovered, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks have increased. Policy discussions around the Wash nominee have fermented, and the risk premium affects the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with Trump's strengthening of the stance against Iran and the Israeli air strike on Iran, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, pushing up energy and hedging premiums. The overall situation shows a pattern of "growth not stalling, policy and geopolitical risks rising" [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall situation of the black building materials market is complex, affected by factors such as market demand, supply - demand relationship, and macro - expectations. Each variety has its own characteristics and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market showed an upward trend in the disk yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3067 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3219 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the inventory of building materials increased by 50.03% month - on - month to 572.97 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 40.90% month - on - month to 315.35 million tons. The spot trading of steel is in the seasonal off - season [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Building materials are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory increases. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price movement range is limited, following the raw material price fluctuations. The production and sales of strip steel have improved this week, and the demand for sheet metal is expected to further improve, but the high intermediate inventory suppresses the price [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile trend, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price was strong yesterday. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 701,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 327.44%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 73.86%. The global iron ore shipment volume was stable, with a total of 3.341 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The arrival volume at 45 ports continued to decline, with a total of 2.147 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Currently, the supply of iron ore is strong while the demand is weak, and the inventory has been at a high level for a long time, deepening the fundamental contradictions. Although steel mills have plans to resume production, the high supply and inventory still suppress the price. The high - price iron ore shipments remain high, and low prices can suppress the marginal supply of non - mainstream mines, gradually restoring the supply - demand balance. In the short term, the iron ore price still faces downward pressure [4]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be cautiously bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The double - coking futures fluctuated yesterday. The port coke spot market was stable, and the domestic trade spot market had a general trading atmosphere. The coal mines had great pressure to sell, and the prices generally decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal remained at a high level, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was about 1000 - 1010 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the local supply has recovered quickly, the rigid demand of coking enterprises is stable, but they mainly consume raw material inventory, and the de - stocking pattern continues, with weak cost support. For coke, independent coking enterprises continue to accumulate inventory, which is at a medium - high level, and the total inventory has slightly increased, increasing the expectation of spot price cuts [7]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to show a volatile trend, and there are no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety [8]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the demand has recovered recently due to the resumption of work of many downstream enterprises. Most coal mines have queues of trucks for hauling, and the overall coal price has increased. In the port area, affected by the limited domestic resource transfer and the increase in upstream quotations, the ports are generally optimistic about the future, with high quotations. Some traders have a stronger willingness to sell for profit, but the actual transactions are few due to the high quotations. Currently, domestic resources are tight, and imports are also tense, providing short - term support for coal prices. In the import market, the Indonesian policy has not been implemented, and the market pattern is still volatile. Indonesian miners have few offers, and the market quotations and tender prices have increased significantly, but domestic tenders are cautious [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the Spring Festival, the demand has gradually recovered, leading to a strong coal price. Affected by the supply problems in the import market, the domestic coal price has continued to rise slightly. In the short term, the coal price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, but it will enter the off - season in March, and in the long - term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [9]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are provided [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of steel are both weak, inventory is still accumulating, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand is average. The inventory pressure of iron ore remains, the resumption of coal mines after the Spring Festival will accelerate, the downstream replenishment willingness of coking coal is limited, and the supply - demand pressure of glass and soda ash remains. The prices of related varieties are under pressure. Affected by the news of South African manganese ore, the alloy futures market is strong, but it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure when the price rises to a high level [1] - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is still cautious. The futures market still has downward adjustment pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply side still has expectations of weather disturbances. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, there are still macro expectations. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are both weak in the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and actual demand in the future [8] Carbon Element - Coke: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to continue to grow. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of coking enterprises will be alleviated. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [11] - Coking coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of manganese ore prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental contradiction is not large, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the futures market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and electricity costs, as well as the changes in the production start - up level of manufacturers [17] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair, the high inventory will always suppress the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13] Other Information - The report also provides daily monitoring data of spot and futures indicators of black building materials varieties, including spot prices, basis, and futures market profits of various varieties [20] - The report shows the commodity index and plate index of CITIC Futures on February 26, 2026, including the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index, as well as their changes [102][104]