朋友们，我是帮主郑重。就在全球为新年钟声欢呼时，全球大宗商品市场，却用一份极度"分裂"的成绩 单，为2025年画上了句号。如果你只看一个品种，你会对市场产生完全相反的判断，这恰恰是当下全球 经济复杂性的真实镜像。 我们来看看这幅"分裂"的图景。 所以，我的核心观点是：2025年大宗商品市场，完美演绎了一场"宏观预期"与"微观现实"、"长期叙 事"与"短期流动性"的激烈拉锯战。 铜，交易的是未来的绿色梦想；油，困在当下的过剩泥潭；而黄 金，则在避险的"神坛"与投机的"赌桌"之间反复横跳。它们走势的背离，正是全球经济与政策处在复杂 十字路口的直观体现。 对于已经到来的2026年，作为中长线投资者，我们的策略也需要因"品"而异，更加精细化： 对于铜，长期的电气化故事依然牢固，但短期内42%的涨幅已经透支了大量乐观预期。策略上，绝不在 狂热时追高，而应耐心等待市场情绪降温后的回调机会，再考虑分批布局，将其作为对抗通胀和能源转 型的长期配置选项。 一边，是"铜博士"的史诗级狂飙。 伦敦期铜在2025年全年暴涨42%，创下了自2009年金融危机复苏以来 最大的年度涨幅。这绝不是简单的炒作，其背后是电气化时代对铜这种"工业 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant. The downstream开工 drops slightly, and the export orders remain resilient. The overall supply - demand improvement is limited. [3] - The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The spot price is mainly stable, and the demand for low - priced goods improves slightly. The inventory pressure in Shandong is partially relieved, but the national caustic soda inventory accumulates slightly. [4] Group 3: Summary of Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,738 yuan/ton (+147), the East China basis is - 298 yuan/ton (-67), and the South China basis is - 288 yuan/ton (-97) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotes 4,440 yuan/ton (+80), and the South China calcium carbide method quotes 4,450 yuan/ton (+50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (-50), the calcium carbide profit is - 134 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 986 yuan/ton (+116), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 469 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 0.9 US dollars/ton (+4.7) [1] - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (-1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (-0.7), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.01% (-2.12%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate is 74.06% (-2.61%), and the PVC operation rate is 76.12% (-2.27%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,219 yuan/ton (+38), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 31 yuan/ton (-38) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 246.96 yuan/ton (+130.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 340.39 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.47 million tons (+0.76), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.51 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.50% (-1.70%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.00% (-1.11%), the dyeing and printing operation rate in East China is 62.06% (-0.68%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.62% (+0.00%) [2] Group 4: Summary of Market Analysis PVC - Macro factors: The "15th Five - Year Plan" and the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost the demand expectation of PVC. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - Supply: One more enterprise conducts maintenance this week, and some calcium carbide method enterprises continue to reduce production. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant as all new PVC installations in 2025 have been put into production [3] - Demand: The downstream operation drops slightly, with pipes remaining stable and profiles and films decreasing. The downstream purchases at low prices, and the trading volume is light when the futures price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the double festivals [3] - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end is repaired to some extent, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price drops, resulting in a loss in production profit, and the semi - coke price also drops slightly, with the profit end remaining in a loss state [3] - Other factors: The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price. The news of overseas factory closures or bankruptcy applications supports the market sentiment to a certain extent [3] Caustic Soda - Market trend: The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand [4] - Supply: The supply - end operation rate drops slightly, but the overall operation is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is still positive, and the high - level operation of caustic soda is maintained. However, the liquid chlorine price in Shandong is expected to drop in late December, and the cost support may strengthen [4] - Demand: The alumina factory operation is relatively stable, the purchase price is stable, and the non - aluminum demand weakens. The demand for low - priced goods improves marginally, but the supply - end pressure remains as there is no reduction in supply [4] Group 5: Summary of Strategies PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 PVC 昨日PVC期货价格大幅上涨，其中PVC主力期货V2605收盘涨幅达3.02%。上涨主要受宏观预期驱动。 宏观层面，李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议强调，要谋划一批能 够带动全局的重大工程、重大项目、重大载体，市场解读为利好基建，提振PVC需求预期。全国住房城 乡建设工作会议12月22-23日在北京召开，部署明年重点工作时会议提到要着力稳定房地产市场。进一 步强化市场情绪。此外，近期金融监管总局与国务院国资委关于化解债务风险、抵制"内卷式"竞争的表 态，共同构筑了偏强的宏观氛围。 基本面层面，PVC近期小幅改善，低估值，易受宏观情绪影响反弹。当前PVC供应端边际电石法企业继 续降负，整体供应小幅下降，但2025年投产使得PVC供应端呈现充裕格局。需求端下游开工受季节性影 响小幅下降，下游逢低采购，盘面反弹成交清淡。出口订单在双节前仍保持韧性。PVC氯碱综合利润受 烧碱及PVC价格小幅反弹有一定修复，但同比仍低位。海外供应出现收缩信息，美国西湖化学批准2025 年12月关闭45 ...

报告导读： 在供需紧平衡的状况下，供需平衡表很重要，但更需关注宏观对金属价格走势 的核心影响，货币政策、宏观预期、地缘博弈与供给扰动将成为胜负手。工业金属是流动 性 + 传统复苏 +AI 需求的三击。 贵金属：库存扰动持续，白银价格持续上行。 上周欧洲央行保持利率不变，日本央行加息 25 个基点，但对国际市场流动性冲击有限，此外，美国通胀数据 走低、失业率数据走高。上周黄金价格温和上涨，伦敦现货白银价格突破 66 美元 / 盎司，铂钯价格稳步上行。展望 2026 年，我们认为央行购金和黄金 ETF 持仓份额上升，美联储仍有降息预期，且日本加息的背景下，美元指数走弱或将持续，多因素支撑黄金价格。短期关注俄乌谈判带来的地缘政治风险下 行，另外白银库存短缺持续存在，价格或将偏强运行。 铜：长单零加工费敲定，铜供给脆弱性加大，铜价或偏强运行。 美就业数据喜忧参半、通胀超预期放缓，市场对美 2026 年降息预期上升，随着日本加息利 空落地，铜价周五震荡走强。铜矿偏紧延续， 2026 年铜矿长单加工费 Benchmark 敲定，分别为 0 美元 / 吨与 0 美分 / 磅（同比下降 21.25 美元 / 吨与 2.125 ...

银河期货研报：供应端，随着电价上涨，企业亏损加剧，青海地区部分厂家近期新增检修，供应端延续 下行趋势。需求方面，钢联数据显示，钢材库存虽然保持去化，但钢材产量与表需双双下降，对原料端 需求仍有压力。宏观方面，反内卷和控制高能耗预期再度升温，对硅铁有所提振，但基本面供需双弱配 合不足，总体来看延续底部震荡。 【市场资讯】 12月17日，郑商所硅铁期货仓单12972张，环比上个交易日减少96张。 近日甘肃某大厂2台生产72硅铁炉子开始转产，其中一台转低铝硅铁，1台转97硅。内蒙古包头某硅铁厂 检修一台45000kva硅铁炉，减停产情况增加，对价格有一定支撑。 分析观点： 周三，硅铁现货价格持平，硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5100-5200元/吨，75硅铁价格报5600- 5700元/吨。 (12月18日)全国硅铁价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | 地 | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 宁夏地区 | 5200元/ | 市场价 | ...

12月17日，白银现货与期货价格同步刷新历史纪录，国内市场亦紧随其后掀起一波上涨浪潮。 白银继续"疯涨"。 国际市场上，白银价格突破势头尤为迅猛。截至记者发稿，伦敦银现报65.769美元/盎司，日内大涨 3.22%，盘中最高触及66.522美元/盎司，年内伦敦银现涨幅近130%，实现翻倍式增长。 白银为何会成为如此狂热的资产？ "宏观预期、产业趋势与交易博弈的共振，共同推动了年内白银价格的史诗级上涨。"尚艺基金总经理王 峥说道。 具体来看，王峥指出，一是宏观金融环境构成了核心推力。2025年美联储进入明确的降息周期，带动实 际利率下行，极大提升了白银这类无息资产的吸引力。同时，市场对美联储未来进一步宽松的预期，加 上对美国高额财政赤字侵蚀美元信用的长期担忧，进一步点燃资金对贵金属的抱团热情。 二是工业需求的根本性重塑提供了坚实基本面。白银已不仅是传统的避险资产，更成为能源转型与科技 革命的关键工业金属。光伏、电动汽车、人工智能数据中心等产业需求呈爆发式增长，而全球矿产银供 应增长停滞，导致实物供需已连续数年出现硬缺口。 期货市场同样表现强势，截至记者发稿，COMEX白银报66.045美元/盎司，最高报66.6 ...

美联储上周暗示未来降息步伐将放缓，而市场则预计明年至少降息两次，两者存在分歧。 若最新数据表现不佳，"软着陆"叙事或难推动风险资产明显上涨；反之，若数据强劲，可能引发鹰派政 策担忧，推高债券收益率，冲击成长型股票等风险资产。 摘要今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金在4286美元附近震荡运行，截至发稿报4287.30美元/盎 司，日内下跌0.40%。盘中最高触及4317.69美元/盎司，最低下探至4279.99美元/盎司，波幅约38美元。 整体走势显示，短线进入横盘整理阶段，多空力量相对均衡，暂未形成明确单边方向。 今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金在4286美元附近震荡运行，截至发稿报4287.30美元/盎司，日 内下跌0.40%。盘中最高触及4317.69美元/盎司，最低下探至4279.99美元/盎司，波幅约38美元。整体走 势显示，短线进入横盘整理阶段，多空力量相对均衡，暂未形成明确单边方向。 市场密切关注本周即将公布的美国就业与通胀数据，这被视为对近期宏观预期的一次关键检验。 与此同时，非农报告备受关注，预计新增就业岗位仅约5万个，增速显著放缓。该报告不仅影响市场短 期波动，也将成为判断 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - China's total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports reached 29.281 million tons, an increase of 3.589 million tons week-on-week [1] - Total iron ore arrivals at 45 ports in China were 27.234 million tons, up by 2.429 million tons week-on-week [1] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 35.925 million tons, increasing by 2.240 million tons week-on-week [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global iron ore shipments are expected to remain strong, maintaining seasonal highs, while domestic port inventories continue to rise, reaching a new annual high [2] - The average daily port throughput is 3.192 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.074 million tons [1] - Steel mills are experiencing poor profitability, leading to a seasonal reduction in iron production [2] Group 3: Price and Market Sentiment - The iron ore market is currently characterized by a loose supply-demand balance, with short-term price fluctuations influenced by market sentiment and capital speculation [3] - The current trading logic has returned to fundamental drivers, with short-term iron ore prices expected to show weak fluctuations [3] - The structural increase in port storage costs may accelerate the flow of related spot transactions [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The negative feedback pattern in the steel market continues, with weak demand and low profits for steel mills. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the volatility may intensify in the weak market [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on the overall trend in the medium and long term due to the gradually surplus supply and demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the decline in iron water production and the pressure on steel mill profits, and the prices may be weak and volatile [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets have different supply and demand situations, with the price movements affected by factors such as raw material prices and demand [7][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. The demand and supply of both thread steel and hot rolled coil decreased, and the inventory pressure remained. The iron water production continued to decline, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts was high. The downstream demand was weak, and the export remained high. The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the coal and coke price drops put pressure on the market [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market fluctuated. The global shipment was strong, and the domestic port inventory reached a new high. The demand was weak in the off - season, and the iron water was in a seasonal production - cut trend. The macro - expectations were gradually realized, and the overall trend had a downward pressure in the medium and long term [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward. The second round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The price might be weak and volatile [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was weak, and the price might be weak and volatile [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated upward. The manganese ore price increased due to the futures market rebound. The port inventory had a structural problem, and the demand for some ores might change. The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the inventory increased slowly [7]. Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward. The market expected a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The demand from metal magnesium production increased marginally, and the overall demand was still resilient. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [8].

今 日 早 评 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】Mysteel统计全国钢厂进口铁矿石库存总 量为8984.73万吨，环比增42.25万吨；当前样本钢厂的进口矿 日耗为 285.07万吨，环比减4.36万吨；库存消费比31.52天， 环比增0.62天 。评：发运端整体较为平稳，部分矿山年底可能 有冲量，飓风结束到港节奏波动或趋于平稳；需求端样本铁水 产量环比明显减量，淡季逐渐深入，铁水季节性下滑预期仍 存，刚需支撑逐渐走弱，但钢厂盈利率略有增加，且补库需求 暂未明显释放。库存方面，港口库存继续累积，钢厂库存环比 增加，压港小幅下降，整体仍有累库压力。重要会议前期仍有 宏观预期，短期矿价预计震荡运行。 【短评-白银】美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环 比上涨0.2%，基本符合市场预期。同时，9月实际个人消费支出 环比意外持平，前值由上涨0.4%下修为0.2%。评：通胀数据为 美联储12月降息再开绿灯，美国经济承压，市场对未来降息预 期增加，目前市场关注点在黄金是否进一步走 ...