晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观预期回暖 矿价偏强运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 供应方面：外矿发运小幅回落但仍维持相对高位水平，其中澳洲力拓和 FMG 矿山回升显著， 巴西发运创出历史高值后出现较大程度回落，非主流同样高位回落；到港量处于中位偏高水平， 整体看供给端压力有所减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内日均铁水量连续两周小幅回升，本期日均铁水产量 240.75（环比+0.09）， 当前钢厂盈利率水平高位回落但高炉利润水平也出现连续下滑，短流程再度陷入全面亏损对铁 矿石需求存在一定程度保护，整体看国内需求对价格支撑力度边际减弱，后期需关注铁水能否 维持高 ...

黑色金属周报-铁矿 宏观预期提振 矿价震荡反弹 2025年8月25日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 宏观预期提振 矿价震荡反弹 需求端：本期247样本钢厂日均铁水产量出现增量。247样本钢厂铁水日均产量为240.75万吨/天，环比上周增0.09万吨/天，较年 初减3.6万吨/天，同比增16.29万吨/天。本期新增7座高炉检修，3座高炉复产，高炉检修发生在西北、西南、华中区域，高炉复产发 生在西北、东北地区，其中西北地区的高炉检修复产是由于某钢厂产能置换的原因，叠加部分高炉轮休导致;华中、西南的高炉检修主 要由于建材需求下滑而进行年中检修;东北区域的高炉复产为高炉检修结束后常规复产:同时，随着成材价格的下跌而原材料价格坚挺， 导致本周钢厂盈利率持续下滑。根据高炉停复产计划，下期铁水或将环比下滑。 上周铁矿主流现货价格小幅松动。具体来看，卡粉（-6），PB粉（-3），BRBF （+1），金布巴（-2），超特粉（+4），mac（- 10）。块矿方面，PB块（-5） ，纽曼块（+3），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（ ...

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观预期偏向于积极 短期矿价区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：上周中美关税政策落地，国内短期宏观进入空窗期，市场更多关注美联储降息预期。 黑色系受终端需求走弱影响（螺纹表需超预期下滑）整体较为弱势，叠加交易所对焦煤投机氛 围再度抑制（限仓并提高手续费），铁矿石价格跟随回落。但当前高炉高利润以及短流程谷电 再度陷入亏损，预计短期国内需求维持保持相对高位水平，且供给端回升压力并不大，铁矿石 供需阶段性平衡，港口库存趋向于平稳。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人 ...

中信建投期货表示，总体来看，内外宏观预期落地或下修，加速市场情绪回归理性，加之终端需求偏 弱，预计短期铜价承压整理为主。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考 78500-79600 元/吨。策略上，观望或区 间操作。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Copper Weekly Report 20250811 [2] - Researchers: Wang Yanhong, Zhang Jiefu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - In the macro - aspect, copper prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation within 78000 - 78500. After the copper tariff was implemented, the first stage of COMEX copper's sharp decline to narrow the price difference ended. US "hard data" started to weaken, with the manufacturing level hitting a 9 - month low and three - month non - farm payroll data being sluggish. The market anticipates a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear. In China, risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [4][91]. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, the term structure continued to flatten, and China's copper output in July reached a new high. The key lies in overseas fundamental changes, especially the future flow of 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (a 170,000 - ton increase this year). It may flow back to the LME copper market, and the price may be adjusted through COMEX copper's continued decline and a subsequent strength reversal [4][91]. - Regarding the strategy, the domestic copper price game has become dull with both long and short positions reducing. Since the main price variables are overseas and it is currently in a window of macro - expectation changes with a flat fundamental situation, some put - option positions can be added in the low - volatility environment [4][91]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI and Economic Data**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, and China declined. The US manufacturing PMI hit a 9 - month low, and China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders decreased, raw material prices rose, and finished - product inventory declined [13][14]. - **Interest - rate Expectations**: The US "hard data" weakened, and the market expects a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear [14]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [14]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - **Global Production**: In 2024, the global copper mine output was 22.835 million tons, a 2.54% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative output was 9.524 million tons, a 3.27% increase. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus in 2025 [22]. - **China's Imports**: In 2024, China imported 28.114 million tons of copper concentrate, a 2.1% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative import was 14.7543 million tons, a 6.4% increase, but the import data in June declined [26]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - The SMM import copper concentrate index on August 8 was - 38.06 dollars/ton, up 4.03 dollars/ton from the previous week. The PT Gresik smelter's extended maintenance and the approaching expiration of Indonesia's export quota led to a rise in spot TC [31]. Refined Copper Production - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper output increased by 3.94 tons month - on - month. It is expected to decline by 0.6 tons in August due to supply shortages [37]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper and exported 457,500 tons. In 2025, from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons (an 8.6% decrease), and exports were 307,900 tons (a 1.97% increase) [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 2.25 million tons of copper scrap. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.1454 million tons, a 0.5% decrease. The import source structure changed [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, power investment increased by 12.14%, and grid investment increased by 15.26%. In 2025, from January to June, power investment increased by 5.9%, and grid investment increased by 14.6% [53]. - **Wire and Cable**: Related to grid investment, no detailed new data provided [55]. - **Air - conditioning**: In 2024, the air - conditioning output increased by 9.7%. In 2025, from January to June, it increased by 5.5%, and the industry entered the off - season [58]. - **Automobile**: From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, real - estate completion and new - start areas declined. In June 2025, the completion area declined by 14.3%, and the decline narrowed [66]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the three exchanges was 502,000 tons, a 28,000 - ton increase. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 79,000 tons, a 2,100 - ton decrease [72]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of August 5, the CFTC non - commercial long net positions were 20,686 lots, a 16,661 - lot decrease. Both long and short positions decreased [74]. Premiums and Discounts - As of August 8, the LME copper spot was at a discount of - 69.55 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium first declined and then rose. Imported goods will suppress the premium in the future [85]. Basis - As of August 8, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 210 yuan/ton [87]. Strategy - In the current situation of dull domestic copper - price game, with major price variables overseas, in the window of macro - expectation changes and flat fundamentals, add some put - option positions in the low - volatility environment [4][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: Neutral [3] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bullish [3] - Imports: Bearish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Neutral [3] - MTO Profits: Bearish [3] - Inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the reality of methanol is weak, but the expectation is strong due to macro and demand increment expectations, leading to a continuous decline in the recent month spread. The short - term strategy is still a reverse arbitrage logic. For unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the impact of commodity sentiment, and look for long opportunities at low levels in forward contracts [3]. - Coal prices have continued to rebound recently, with pit - mouth prices rising, and coal has entered the peak season [3]. - The domestic methanol operating rate has rebounded slightly but remains low, with many domestic plants under maintenance, resulting in a reduction in inland supply [3]. - Overseas plants are resuming production, and there is significant import pressure in August. However, the recent natural gas shortage in Iran has led to a reduction in supply, and the sustainability of this impact should be monitored [3]. - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand is firm, and the procurement sentiment inland is fair. For olefin plants, there are both restarts and maintenance. Xingxing is under maintenance while Mengda has restarted, resulting in a reduction in coastal demand [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol has remained stable, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol has remained in the red, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol has rebounded slightly [3]. - The MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. - Ports have continued to accumulate inventory, while inland inventory has remained low [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Supply - As of the week ending August 1, the national methanol plant operating rate was 71.5%, with the coal - to - methanol plant operating rate at 76.6%, the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 56.8%, and the natural - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 49.9% [11]. - During the period from July 25 to July 31, Yulin Kaiyue, Yankuang Yulin, Shenmu Chemical, Shanxi Linxin, and Shanxi Gengyang restarted, while Shaanxi Changqing and Runzhong Clean started maintenance. Many domestic plants, including Gansu Huating, Yulin Kaiyue, etc., are still under maintenance [13][14]. Overseas Supply - In Iran, multiple plants are operating at low loads, and two plants are shut down. The high - peak summer electricity demand in Iran has led to a natural gas shortage, which may affect methanol production. For example, Zagros PC's two sets of 330 - ton - per - year plants are operating at low loads, and Bushehr and Fanavaran PC are under maintenance [19]. - In other regions, Shell in Germany, Bioethanol in the Netherlands, and some plants in Malaysia, the US, Trinidad, Venezuela, New Zealand, and Chile also have various operating conditions such as shutdowns and low - load operations [19]. Demand Traditional Demand - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand has changed little. The operating rates of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have rebounded slightly, while those of MTBE and acetic acid have declined. Currently, it is the off - season for traditional demand, but overall, it still shows resilience. The current profit of traditional downstream sectors is low, and it remains to be seen whether the peak demand season will materialize [51]. - The downstream procurement volume has declined recently. The procurement of olefins has slowed down after the previous restocking, and the procurement volume of traditional demand has declined continuously, mainly due to the recent price decline suppressing buying sentiment and the impact of the current traditional off - season [56]. Olefin Demand - As of July 31, the MTO operating rate was 81%, and the operating rate of externally - sourced methanol - to - olefin plants was 76.4%. Mengda's MTO plant restarted at the end of the month, and Xingxing's MTO plant shut down for maintenance [40]. - The profit of East China's MTO plants has recently recovered, mainly due to the recent decline in methanol prices in East China. However, the relatively strong inland methanol prices have led to a recent decline in inland profits [40]. Profits - Coal - to - methanol profit has remained stable, natural - gas - to - methanol profit has remained in the red, and coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit has rebounded slightly. As of August 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 136.5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China was - 270 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 275 yuan/ton [32]. - MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. Inventory - This week, the port inventory is 91.5 tons, and the port's tradable inventory is 43.6 tons, continuing to accumulate. Ports are in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. With the shutdown of East China's MTO plants and the realization of increased imports, ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. Inland enterprise inventory has remained low and continued to decline last week. With more inland plants under maintenance and the large - scale procurement by an inland enterprise, the inland sentiment is expected to remain strong [74]. - The inventory of MTO sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The port procurement volume slowed down last week after the downstream's phased restocking. It is expected that procurement will increase slightly this week. The raw - material inventory of traditional downstream sectors has changed little [80]. Market Spreads - The basis of the East China main contract has remained weak recently. With ports continuing to accumulate inventory, the spot basis in East China has been continuously declining. It is expected that the basis will remain weak in July and August [89]. - The 9 - 1 month spread has been continuously declining. The weak reality has pressured the near - end price, but the macro situation and the improved expectation for methanol itself have made the far - end stronger. In the short term, the reverse arbitrage logic is expected to continue [89]. - The PP/L - 3MA spread has strengthened recently. After the methanol price reached a high and then declined, the spread first contracted and then expanded. In the short term, the volatility of the spread still depends on the methanol side, and short - term trading in bands is recommended [94]. Balance Sheet - The total methanol production, supply, and consumption show different trends throughout 2025. For example, the total production is expected to reach 742 tons in August 2025, with coal accounting for 614 tons, natural gas for 54 tons, and coke - oven gas for 74 tons. The total supply is expected to be 867 tons, and the consumption is expected to be 860 tons [98].

Report Title - "Pork Futures and Options August 2025 Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy expectation has led to a reversal in the futures monthly spread. The domestic inflation expectation is expected to rise, and the pig futures price once soared. The far-month 2601 contract price has shifted to a premium structure relative to the near-month and spot prices [3]. - The marginal risk brought by tariffs will gradually decrease, and the market's extreme situation probability such as global economic recession and significant damage to commodity trade has declined. The domestic market is focusing on hedging policies, and the market is "desensitized" to Sino-US relations [3]. - The overall financial attribute of agricultural products is relatively weak, and they are less affected by the macro environment. Currently, the prices of basic agricultural products are at a historical low level, with low valuations and potential for rebound [3]. - Pig enterprises have experienced about 12 months of high-level profitability. Although the industry's absolute production capacity has not increased significantly, the production efficiency per sow has been greatly improved. With policy expectations, the overcapacity of breeding sows is unlikely [3]. - The pig price in 2025 may not be worse than that in 2023 [3]. - Regarding the pig futures price in the second half of 2025, if the macro expectation continues to strengthen, there are conditions for the undervalued commodities to have their valuations revised upwards. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the futures price is below the breeding cost of 13,500 - 14,000 points, or buy call options near the cost [4]. Summary by Directory 2025 July and August Market Review and Outlook - In July, the "anti-involution" atmosphere drove up the prices of risk assets, and the domestic inflation expectation was expected to rise. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with leading group enterprises, emphasizing measures such as reducing the inventory of breeding sows, controlling the slaughter weight, and restricting secondary fattening, which released a policy signal to support the market [3]. - The soybean and corn prices have reached the bottom range, and it is difficult for the feed cost to continue to decrease in 2025. The current increase in production capacity is mainly reflected in the utilization efficiency rather than the absolute production capacity. The continuous improvement in efficiency has a technical bottleneck, and there is a "scar effect" among retail investors. Therefore, although the upstream of the pig industry has experienced a long period of profitability, it has not accumulated excessive risks [4]. 2025 July Pig Spot and Futures Price Review - In July, the "anti-involution" had little impact on agricultural products, and the volatility of the sector was relatively low. The pig spot and futures prices showed a divergent trend, and the "anti-involution" policy led to a surge in the futures price [6][8]. - From January to July 2025, the agricultural product index showed different trends due to various factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, tariff policies, and seasonal factors. In July, the breeding sector hit a new low [7]. - The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at a relatively low level in history, and the ratio of pig futures to feed is close to the historical low level [10][13]. - In 2025, the piglet price in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the feed price fluctuated overall. The terminal consumption did not show significant improvement, but the average price of pork carcasses was higher than that in 2023. The prices of beef, mutton, poultry, eggs, vegetables, and aquatic products showed different trends [18][21][24]. - According to historical data, the pig spot price in the second quarter is prone to seasonal increases, and the price in August has a high probability of rising [39][40]. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The current inventory of breeding sows is in the green range, and the cumulative increase compared with March 2024 is about 3% [43][44]. - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared with previous years, the price of replacement gilts has been stable, and the market speculation enthusiasm has declined [45][48]. - The production efficiency per sow has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. In May 2025, the pig slaughter volume continued to increase, but the increase may not be large [50][54][55]. Listed Pig Enterprises - The profitability of listed companies has shown significant differentiation, the monthly sales of piglets of listed companies have decreased, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high level [59][62][64]. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - From July to August, the hot weather and the relatively high weight of pigs are the main risks affecting the spot price. In July, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly but was lower than the level in 2023. The import volume of pork and offal has declined from the high level, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly at a low level in June 2025 [68][71][73]. - The current average monthly profitability is at the historical median level, and the profit of purchasing piglets in July is close to the break - even point [79]. Pig Futures Market - In July, the futures price broke away from the spot price and soared, and the futures price has shifted to a premium relative to the spot price. The pig index rebounded from the historical low, and the trading volume and open interest increased significantly [80][81]. - The 2503 and 2505 contracts' futures prices finally rebounded from the low level to make up for the discount to the spot price, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts are near the breeding cost. The near - month contracts have shifted from a discount to a premium relative to the spot price, and the far - month contracts' premium in the peak season has widened under the policy support [84][87][90]. - The basis is stronger than in the same period of previous years. Attention should be paid to the way of the regression of the pig spot and futures prices in the third quarter, and the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage [93][96]. - The volatility of the pig 2509 contract has rebounded [102]. Pig Market Summary - In the third quarter, the macro environment may be the main driving force for the rise of the pig price. Attention should be paid to the real improvement of key consumption [104]. - In trading, it is advisable to buy the 2511 contract at low levels, or short the 2601 contract and long the 2605 contract at an appropriate time. For options, sell the wide - straddle price - spread combination when the volatility is high [104].

Report Overview - Date: July 31, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Scope: Black series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, showing a moderately strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, experiencing wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Influenced by macro - sentiment, showing a moderately weak and volatile trend [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: After sentiment realization, undergoing wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, stabilizing in a volatile manner [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][24] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton (-1.13%). Imported ore prices decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The trend intensity is 0 [4]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and plan the second - half economic work [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,315 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.42%); HC2510 closed at 3,483 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.81%). Some spot prices increased, and there were changes in inventory and production data [6][8]. - **News**: The government will regulate enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity management in key industries. There were also updates on price law amendments and steel production data [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices declined, while some spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, and the price of manganese ore rose. The trend intensity for both is 0 [10]. - **News**: There were price increases in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, changes in enterprise production rates in different regions, and updates on steel mills' procurement prices and manganese ore quotes [11][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: JM2509 closed at 1,117 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.31%); J2509 closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, up 43.5 yuan/ton (2.66%). Some spot prices remained stable, while others changed slightly. The trend intensity for both is 0 [16]. - **News**: There were updates on port prices and member - position changes in the futures market [16][18]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading yesterday. There were quotes for southern port and domestic origin coal, and no changes in member - position in the futures market. The trend intensity is 0 [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed varying degrees of decline or change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable. The trend intensity is 0 [25]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to plan the second - half economic work [27].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [4]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range fluctuations, with attention to the switch of macroeconomic sentiment [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures market shows a strong upward trend [13]. - Polysilicon: Driven by news, the futures market shows a strong upward trend [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan. Trading volumes and price changes over different time intervals are provided [5]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on various nickel and stainless - steel products such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel sheets are presented, including prices, spreads, and profit margins [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5]. - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project has entered the trial production stage [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian IMIP industrial park, and audits and potential fines are planned [6][7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three to one year [7]. - The approved production target for Indonesian nickel mines in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons [7]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of its EF lines, affecting about 1,900 metal tons of nickel - iron output per month [7][8]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets starting in October 2025 [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts, as well as other related indicators such as basis and spreads, are provided [10]. - **Industry Chain**: Prices of raw materials like lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica, and lithium - salt products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, are presented [10]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 668 yuan/ton [11]. - China issued 1,121 energy - storage project lists in the first half of 2025, with a total installed capacity of over 198.145GW [12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the Si2509 and PS2509 contracts, as well as spreads, basis, and cost data, are provided [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Information on prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products in the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is presented [14]. Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Administration of China will accelerate the construction of the new - energy power - market system and promote the development of supporting policies [15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the resonance of macro and news factors, with the policy expectations of macro - structural adjustment and supply optimization fermenting, but the logic between fundamental verification and macro expectations may fluctuate before clear policies on nickel are implemented. The nickel ore support is weakening, and the low - cost supply increment of refined nickel and high inventory in the ferronickel segment have an impact on the price [1]. - The marginal direction of stainless steel prices is dominated by macro sentiment, and the elasticity of the real - world fundamental logic is poor. The macro policy expectations on the domestic supply - side boost commodities, but a clear policy is needed for a trend - upward movement. The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to follow the macro sentiment and fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Fundamentals - **Macro and News Factors**: Macro policy expectations are fermenting, but no clear policies on nickel have been implemented. Short - term policy news from Indonesia is frequent but within market expectations. APNI suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, and the Indonesian government may change the RKAB approval cycle [1]. - **Real - world Situation**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, with the premium starting to decline in July after an increase in Indonesian quota approvals, and the fire - method cash cost has decreased by 1.4%. Refined nickel inventory is stable in the short term, but the expected increase in low - cost supply is a drag. Ferronickel inventory is high, but marginal restocking slightly boosts the price [1]. 3.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Macro and Real - world Logic**: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices. The real - world fundamental logic has poor elasticity. The macro policy expectations on the supply - side boost commodities, but specific policies are needed for a trend - upward movement [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern. The resonance production cuts in China and Indonesia from June to July have alleviated the over - supply situation. The apparent demand in June increased by 2% year - on - year, and the production in June increased by 4% year - on - year, while the production plan for July decreased [2]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: The ferronickel inventory in mid - July was 37,534 tons, up 50% year - on - year and down 11% month - on - month [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. The inventory of various types of stainless steel also decreased [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 395,100 wet tons to 9.8787 million wet tons [5]. 3.4 Market News - **Trade - related News**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - **Project - related News**: In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, entered the trial - production stage [6]. - **Environmental - related News**: Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on the verified illegal companies [6]. - **Policy - related News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [6][7]. - **Production - related News**: Due to long - term production losses, an Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial park has suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as the prices and spreads of various nickel - related products such as imported nickel, ferronickel, and nickel ore are provided [9].