周一亚洲早盘，黄金市场保持平静，价格在每盎司4050 美元附近整理。 上周五金价曾短暂回升至4100 美元，但随后出现回吐，最终重新落回4050 美元一线。美元小幅走强， 金属板块整体温和上扬，白银、铂金和钯金均录得轻微涨幅。 市场对美联储决策的讨论持续发酵。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日谈到，劳动力市场已有降温迹象，未来 仍存在降低借贷成本的空间。虽然其他官员的声音相对谨慎，但这番表态依旧为金价带来短暂提振。 近期美国政府停摆影响了部分经济数据的发布时间，使市场对宏观环境的判断出现一定真空。 本周多项关键数据将陆续补位，包括零售销售、生产者价格指数以及失业金申请数量。这些数据被视为 观察经济温度的重要参考，也可能影响降息预期。目前期货市场显示，投资者预计下个月降息25 个基 点的可能性在六成以上。 自 10月下旬触及每盎司4380 美元的历史高位后，黄金进入横盘阶段。今年以来，金价整体仍保持明显 升势，涨幅约在55% 左右。贸易不确定性、地缘紧张情绪以及对部分国家财政状况的担忧，使避险需 求持续存在，为市场提供支撑。 短期来看，黄金走势仍由宏观预期主导。投资者正等待新的经济数据落地，在更清晰的信号出现前，金 价大 ...

（原标题：黄金、比特币大震荡：传统投资逻辑不灵了？｜财经早察） 11月19日黄金和比特币价格在经历暴跌后有所回调，但想必前些天的震荡行情一定让不少人心惊肉跳。 今天咱们来复盘一下最近比特币和黄金的刺激行情，风险资产和避险资产一起下跌，如此"反常"现象， 到底什么原因？ 我们先看比特币。11月18日，比特币一度跌破9万美元，这可是最近7个月内头一回啊！相信大家还有印 象，10月6日，比特币还曾经飙升到12.6万美元之上，刷新历史最高纪录，但仅仅几天之后，美国总统 特朗普出人意料的关税言论，导致全球市场震荡，比特币也开始坐上了过山车。短短一个多月，直接把 今年的涨幅全跌没了。 为什么呢？这是宏观预期、政策效应和市场情绪等因素叠加影响的结果。 第一，美国市场宏观预期变了。这是最关键的原因。最近啊，美联储内部在关于12月要不要降息的问题 上分歧更大了，有官员认为美国通胀还没达到理想水平呢，不能降；还有一派就说了，现在劳动力市场 不行啊，得赶紧继续降息、保持宽松来挽救就业和居民消费呀。市场一看，好家伙，你们美联储内部要 达成共识，短时间内看来是没戏了，那12月的降息也有可能会泡汤。美国金融市场就像一个游泳池，美 元就是 ...

接下来说说黄金。如果说比特币下跌是"风险资产"的本色出演，那么黄金的同步下跌，就更值得我们警 惕了。因为这在传统金融逻辑里是"反常"的。 11月19日黄金和比特币价格在经历暴跌后有所回调，但想必前些天的震荡行情一定让不少人心惊肉跳。 今天咱们来复盘一下最近比特币和黄金的刺激行情，风险资产和避险资产一起下跌，如此"反常"现象， 到底什么原因？ 我们先看比特币。11月18日，比特币一度跌破9万美元，这可是最近7个月内头一回啊！相信大家还有印 象，10月6日，比特币还曾经飙升到12.6万美元之上，刷新历史最高纪录，但仅仅几天之后，美国总统 特朗普出人意料的关税言论，导致全球市场震荡，比特币也开始坐上了过山车。短短一个多月，直接把 今年的涨幅全跌没了。 为什么呢？这是宏观预期、政策效应和市场情绪等因素叠加影响的结果。 第一，美国市场宏观预期变了。这是最关键的原因。最近啊，美联储内部在关于12月要不要降息的问题 上分歧更大了，有官员认为美国通胀还没达到理想水平呢，不能降；还有一派就说了，现在劳动力市场 不行啊，得赶紧继续降息、保持宽松来挽救就业和居民消费呀。市场一看，好家伙，你们美联储内部要 达成共识，短时间内看来是没 ...

比特币再现过山车行情。10月6日，比特币在盘中飙升至126251美元的历史峰值，但四天后美国总统特 朗普出人意料的关税言论引发全球市场震荡，比特币随之开启跌势。 11月17日，加密货币熊市进一步加剧，比特币跌破9.4万美元，抹去今年以来所有涨幅，自10月6日触及 的纪录高点暴跌逾25%。 北京市社会科学院副研究员王鹏对21世纪经济报道记者表示，比特币价格大幅回调并抹去年内涨幅，核 心在于美元流动性边际收紧。美联储政策预期转向，市场降息预期降温，资金成本上升直接冲击高波动 性资产，机构投资者被迫削减杠杆头寸，抛售压力加剧。与此同时，特朗普政府对加密货币的支持叙事 逐渐失效，全球监管趋严打破"加密资产绝对安全"的幻觉，市场意识到比特币难以同时扮演投机与避险 的双重角色，政策红利预期降温。 本轮风险资产比特币暴跌背后的一个"异常"现象是，风险资产黄金也同步下跌。新火研究院院长丁元对 21世纪经济报道记者表示，近期风险资产（如美股、加密货币）与传统避险资产（如黄金）同步下跌， 这是一个值得警惕的信号。这通常发生在市场流动性出现系统性收缩、资金普遍趋紧的极端环境下。 风险资产和避险资产同步下跌，背后是否暗藏更大危机的信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is experiencing significant downward pressure, erasing gains made earlier in the year due to a combination of macroeconomic expectations, liquidity issues, and trading sentiment [1][5][8]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $93,714, marking a nearly 2% decline in 24 hours and erasing all gains for the year [1]. - As of the latest report, Bitcoin rebounded slightly to $95,734.9, while Ethereum was priced at $3,199.91 [2][3]. - Major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, have seen significant declines, with Ethereum's 7-day drop reaching 11.38% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The decline is attributed to multiple pressures, including fluctuating macroeconomic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies and a tightening liquidity environment [5][6]. - Institutional investors have been redeeming their holdings, leading to a net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs since September [5]. - High leverage levels in the market have made it more susceptible to liquidity shocks, with over 230,000 accounts liquidated in a recent 24-hour period, totaling over $1 billion [7]. Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable decrease in risk appetite among investors, influenced by recent losses in the market and a cautious trading environment [8]. - Historical patterns of Bitcoin's price volatility are causing some investors to preemptively reduce their positions to lock in profits [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term narrative for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks remains intact, but it requires time to mature as an asset class [9]. - Key variables influencing future market direction include the development of ETF channels, clarity in global regulatory environments, and sustained demand in on-chain finance and cross-border payments [9]. - Analysts suggest that while recent declines may correct excessive risk-taking and valuation discrepancies, the structural vulnerabilities of the cryptocurrency market compared to traditional financial assets still pose significant risks [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is repetitive but stable, and base metals will oscillate and rise. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions will continue to support base metal prices, but macro support has weakened. One can cautiously focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up, and also consider low - absorption and long - position opportunities for copper after its price decline. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - For different varieties: copper prices will adjust in the short term; alumina prices will be under pressure and oscillate; aluminum prices will oscillate upwards; aluminum alloy prices will oscillate strongly; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will oscillate; nickel prices will oscillate; stainless steel prices will oscillate; tin prices will oscillate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Due to tight US monetary liquidity, copper prices have adjusted in the short term. The medium - term outlook is oscillating strongly. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the decision on further rate cuts in December is undetermined. The US financial system's capital situation has worsened. In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of November 6, copper inventory increased, and the spot price was at a premium. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed's rate cut and Powell's slightly hawkish speech, along with concerns about tight US money market liquidity, led to a decline in risk asset prices, including copper. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply disruptions increased, processing fees were low, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling increased, causing a contraction in supply. On the demand side, copper inventory did not decline significantly, but the spot price turned to a premium, indicating stronger downstream purchasing willingness. If inventory continues to decline, the price adjustment may be limited [7][8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices will be under pressure and oscillate. - **Analysis**: On November 6, alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipt increased. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has amplified price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and supply contraction is not obvious. China is still in a strong inventory - building trend, and ore prices have loosened slightly. The price is under pressure, but as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, aluminum prices will oscillate upwards. The medium - term outlook is oscillating strongly, and the price center is expected to rise. - **Analysis**: On November 6, the average price of AOO aluminum increased, aluminum bar inventory increased, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased. There were also news about power agreements of aluminum plants and environmental protection warnings in some regions. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and the Sino - US tariff suspension consensus have made the macro sentiment repetitive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and there are environmental protection policies, while overseas supply has marginal disruptions. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, terminal demand is stable, and social inventory reduction has slowed down. Overall, in the short term, the price will oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand is resilient [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, and the price will oscillate strongly in the short term and oscillate in the medium term. - **Analysis**: On November 6, the price of ADC12 increased, and the average price of AOO aluminum also increased. The US Aluminum Association proposed to ban UBC scrap exports, indicating local shortages. The estimated retail market scale of narrow - sense passenger cars in October decreased month - on - month. - **Logic**: In terms of cost, scrap aluminum supply is tight, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate increased slightly, but some alloy plants face the risk of production cuts. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, especially in automobile sales. Overall, with strong cost support and weak improvement in supply - demand, the price will oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The export window has opened, and zinc prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the long term. The overall performance is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On November 6, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount. As of November 6, zinc ingot inventory decreased. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining due to an earthquake. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, Sino - US economic and trade relations are easing, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clear. On the supply side, zinc ore supply has loosened in the short term, processing fees have increased, and smelters' profitability is good, with high production willingness. The export window has opened, relieving domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic market is entering the off - season, and new orders are limited. Overall, domestic social inventory may not accumulate further, and the LME's rule change eases the squeeze - out pressure on LME zinc [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory is slightly accumulating, and lead prices will oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: On November 6, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained stable, the price of lead ingots decreased, and social inventory increased. Some lead ingots were transferred to social warehouses for delivery, and some regenerative lead smelters resumed production. - **Logic**: In the spot market, the premium remained stable. On the supply side, regenerative lead smelters resumed production, but primary lead smelters had many overhauls, and weekly production decreased slightly. On the demand side, although some lead - acid battery factories had short - term production cuts due to high lead prices, it is the peak demand season, and the overall operating rate is high. Considering supply - demand, cost, and macro factors, lead prices will oscillate strongly [17][19]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and nickel prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On November 6, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia strengthened the crackdown on illegal nickel mining, and a company in Mongolia is exploring copper - nickel projects. - **Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. Fundamentally, the supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, the production of intermediate products has recovered, nickel salt prices have weakened slightly, and the market is in surplus with large inventory accumulation. One should focus on changes in LME nickel inventory and RKAB quotas [20][22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and stainless steel prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: The latest stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased. The spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a premium. The average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased. The Indonesian government allocated special funds for mining and smelting projects. - **Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium have weakened, reducing cost support. In October, stainless steel production increased, but downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and there may be inventory pressure in the off - season. Overall, the price will oscillate within a range [23][26]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline, and tin prices will oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: On November 6, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased, and the price of tin ingots increased. - **Logic**: Supply constraints still exist, providing strong support for tin prices. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, the supply of refined tin is expected to tighten. In the future quarter, the shortage of tin ore in China is difficult to significantly ease, and processing fees will remain low. However, after Yunxi's resumption of production, the operating rate of refined tin has increased, and inventory may accumulate slightly, limiting price increases [26]. 3.2行情监测 No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only variety names are listed, so no detailed summary can be made. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On November 6, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index, all showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.50%, 0.61%, and 0.45% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.64% on that day, decreased by 0.07% in the past 5 days, decreased by 0.30% in the past month, and increased by 7.44% since the beginning of the year [151][153].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the natural rubber market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. RU has low valuation and cost - side support but weak buying, while dark - colored rubbers like 20 - gauge rubber rely on downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutrally bearish due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [1][2] - The market has shifted from macro - driven to fundamentals - driven pricing. The current fundamentals show mixed signals, with some positive factors in the upstream and downstream but also significant supply and demand pressures [1] - Trade policies and international situations pose risks to the long - term demand for rubber, and downstream tire enterprises may restructure the supply - demand distribution of rubber [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: After the initial rise, rubber prices retraced due to the fading of macro - positive sentiment. The fundamentals show that although RU has cost - side support, the buying is weak, and 20 - gauge rubber depends on downstream demand. The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, dragging down the price of the rubber system [1] - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand needs continuous macro - positive support, and the export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - Proximal trading: The price difference between Indonesian standard rubber and other standard rubbers has widened slightly, providing some support to NR. The risk of near - month delivery is small, but there is still an anti - arbitrage space for some standard rubbers [7] - Distal trading: The weather in production areas has improved, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory in Qingdao has started to accumulate, increasing the supply pressure. The macro situation still has uncertainties, and the long - term demand may lead to a restructuring of the rubber supply - demand distribution [10] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14800 - 15400; for NR2511, it is 12000 - 12400 [15] - **Trend Judgement**: It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the fundamentals as the main pricing factor. The support for RU01 is around 14600, and the pressure is around 15600; for NR12, the support is around 11800 [15] - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, consider small - scale long - position trading when RU01 stabilizes. For hedging, combine with protective options or consider a long - volatility strategy. For basis trading, consider reverse arbitrage for some varieties. For calendar spread arbitrage, hold long - spread positions for RU and consider long - spread positions for NR11 - 01. For variety arbitrage, consider widening the spread at low levels [16] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - gauge rubber NR, it is 11900 - 12900 [22] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short - sell rubber futures, buy out - of - the - money put options, and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy long - term rubber futures and out - of - the - money call options, and sell put options [22] 3.2 Important Information and Attention Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories decreased, the Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved results, the global automotive supporting demand was good, the Fed cut interest rates, the "15th Five - Year Plan" policies were introduced, and the demand for winter snow tires increased [24][25][26] - **Negative Information**: The Fed's decision on future interest rate cuts is uncertain, the increase in rubber prices has brought supply - demand pressure, the manufacturing PMI in China declined, the tire and automobile inventories are under pressure, and the weather may have a certain impact on production [27] 3.2.2 This Week's Attention Focus - Monitor the rainfall in production areas, changes in dry - rubber social inventory, downstream tire start - up conditions, and important macro data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and China's PPI and CPI reports [28] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, rubber prices first rebounded and then declined. RU and NR found support at around 15000 and 12000 respectively. The liquidity problem of 20 - gauge rubber has been alleviated, and the spot price is still stronger than the disk price. RU's position remained flat, while NR's position continued to decrease [29] - **Capital Trend**: Since last Thursday, the short positions of RU and NR have increased, and the net positions have decreased [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: Last Friday, most spot prices fell, except for the increase in the price of whole milk latex. Among standard rubbers, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [35] - **Basis Structure**: The spread between whole milk latex and smoked sheet rubber narrowed, the basis of whole milk latex remained flat, and the basis of smoked sheet rubber decreased. The basis of some standard rubbers rebounded, and the term structure of NR has changed from a deep back to a shallower one [37][42] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The calendar spread structure of RU changed little, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. The price of NR decreased, and the back structure became shallower, reflecting weak market expectations [42] - **External Market Conditions**: The price of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased, driving the near - month contracts of Japanese RSS3 to strengthen, and the monthly spread structure became flatter. The price and structure of Singapore TSR20 rubber changed little [48] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Recently, the sentiment in the rubber market has fluctuated greatly. The bullish sentiment rose and then fell last week, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was weak. The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU continued to rise, while that of NR decreased [57] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light - colored and dark - colored rubbers widened and then stabilized. The spread between natural and synthetic rubbers increased and then corrected, dragging down the price of natural rubber [60][64] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: Last week, rainfall in Hainan, Yunnan, and southern Thailand affected the supply, and raw material prices were firm. The price difference between water and cup in Thailand rebounded [66] - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: The delivery profit of whole milk latex and the profit of TSR9710 both decreased significantly [73] - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: The overall center of rubber prices moved up last week. The import profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber remained flat, while the profits of 20 - gauge standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased [75] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: The supply of natural rubber in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the weather in some areas has improved, which is conducive to production [10] - **Import Situation**: In September, the import of natural and synthetic rubber in China increased steadily. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while the import of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly [79] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, the actual consumption of natural rubber in China remained stable year - on - year, while the demand in major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia declined [86] - **Tire Production and Sales**: The demand for winter snow tires has increased, and most tire enterprises' start - up rates have remained stable. The inventory of semi - steel tires has decreased, while that of all - steel tires has increased slightly. The export of domestic tires has shown strong resilience but has declined month - on - month [91] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [96] - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales have performed well, and the supporting demand for tires is expected to remain resilient. However, the long - term increase in the demand for truck - related tires may be limited [98][99] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has remained stable overall, with strong performance in all - steel tires and a year - on - year decrease in semi - steel tires. Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [102] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite the decline in automobile sales. The production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable, and the production of commercial vehicles has decreased. The automobile production in Japan and South Korea has shown different trends [104] - **Demand for Other Rubber Products**: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has weakened, while that of rubber tubes is slightly higher than that of last year [111] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: Affected by the weather, the RU warehouse receipts have continued to decline, while the NR warehouse receipts have increased due to stable imports and weak downstream procurement [116] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [118]

Group 1: Market Review - In October, natural rubber showed a "first decline then rise" trend, while synthetic rubber was weak. The main contract of natural rubber (RU) had a monthly increase of 0.37% with a decrease of 444 hands in positions; the main contract of 20 - rubber (NR) had a monthly increase of 1.07% with a decrease of 11,713 hands in positions; the main contract of synthetic rubber (BR) had a monthly decrease of 4.73% with an increase of 13,654 hands in positions [6]. - After the National Day holiday, multiple macro - factors led to a significant increase in the "gold" sector, and industrial products were under pressure. Rubber followed the adjustment. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the macro - expectation improved, and rubber recovered its previous decline. The synthetic rubber declined significantly due to the cost collapse caused by the sharp decline of butadiene [6]. Group 2: Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of October 30, the glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 53.3 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,100 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton. Since October, affected by rainfall, rubber tapping was difficult, and raw material prices were strong, providing cost support. In November, if rainfall eases, the upside of raw material prices is limited; otherwise, cost support remains [8]. Natural Rubber Import Volume - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. The top three import sources in September were Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, with imports of 215,200 tons, 144,000 tons, and 55,600 tons respectively, all with significant month - on - month increases [10]. Rubber Inventory - As of October 24, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 68,705 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month but increased by 14,780.8 tons compared with the same period last year; the general trade spot inventory was 363,524 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and increased by 85,478.52 tons compared with the same period last year; the domestic third - party inventory was 1,038,951 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and decreased by 1,634 tons compared with last year. Overall, the domestic natural rubber inventory decreased in October, and the inventory structure continued to improve [13]. Butadiene Price and Production Profit of Butadiene Rubber - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene market price declined. The supply was expected to be loose, and the inventory of upstream and downstream enterprises increased, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The decline of butadiene price improved the production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises. As of the week of October 31, the theoretical production gross profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was 153.714 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.43 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, and turned from loss to profit compared with the beginning of October [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - In October, the output of butadiene rubber enterprises was 137,579 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,269 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,703 tons. Due to limited downstream demand, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure to decline. As of the week of October 31, the inventory of sample butadiene rubber production enterprises was 27,200 tons, an increase from the beginning of the month and an increase of 3,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of traders continued to decline, but still increased compared with the same period last year [18]. Tire Export - In September 2025, China's truck and bus tire export volume was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67%. The export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.87%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26% with a narrowing increase. The export of truck and bus tires to the EU decreased by 25.70% month - on - month and 23.58% year - on - year, and the export of passenger car tires to the EU decreased by 38.9% month - on - month and 22.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the EU's anti - dumping policy [19]. Tire Inventory - As of the end of October, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39.01 days, a decrease of about 0.2 days compared with the same period last year, and the inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 44.82 days, an increase of about 8.33 days compared with the same period last year. After the "Double Festival" holiday in October, tire enterprises resumed production, but due to trade frictions, the export orders faced pressure, and the overall inventory declined slowly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tires was relatively small, while that of semi - steel tires was large [21]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. After the holiday, the production capacity gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. In the short term, the tire capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable. The early snow in some areas stimulated the demand for snow tires, but the weak external demand and inventory pressure will limit the further increase of capacity utilization [23]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Macro - disturbances are expected to gradually decrease, and the market will return to fundamental expectation games - The short - term support from weather in rubber - producing areas exists, but the core contradiction is the combination of supply growth expectation and demand weakening risk. The seasonal supply increase due to improved weather in rubber - producing areas is the main pressure source. The EU's anti - dumping policy has led to a decline in tire exports, and domestic demand lacks bright performance. The cost collapse of synthetic rubber and its linkage effect will also drag down the price of natural rubber - In the short term, natural rubber will mainly fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade relations and US tariff policies, the weather in Southeast Asian main - producing areas on the supply side, and the start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises, inventory de - stocking, and the progress of the EU's anti - dumping policy on the demand side [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire industry is "Swing" [8][9][10][11][14][16][17][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the industry has marginal weakening, the contradictions are limited. Recently, the macro has continuously released positive news, strengthening the lower support for the prices of sector varieties, which is consistent with the previous judgment of weakened industrial chain logic and strengthened macro - expectations. As long as the hot metal output does not decline more than expected, the macro level will continue to support the prices of sector varieties [8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The daily consumption of sintered powder ore by steel enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term downward expectation of hot metal. But the strengthening of the macro - atmosphere continued to push up the prices of sector varieties. The macro - positives included the release of the "Urban Business Quality Improvement Action Plan" and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders [2] 2. Different Element and Product Analyses Iron Element - For iron ore, the fundamentals have marginal weakening, but the overall contradictions are not prominent. The macro - expectation dominates in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate with support. For scrap steel, the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to follow the finished products due to warming macro - sentiment and slightly improved finished product data [3] Carbon Element - For coke, environmental protection restrictions have limited impact, and the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. With rising costs, coke has started a third round of price increases, but steel mills' profits are under pressure, so the price is expected to oscillate. For coking coal, supply is hard to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy due to low upstream inventory. The third - round price increase boosts the market, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, short - term cost stability and high steel output support the price, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is insufficient. For ferrosilicon, high finished product output and stable costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward space is limited [3] Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the recent strengthening of the futures price has driven a positive futures - spot feedback, but the replenishment space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction through marketization is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward. For soda ash, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro, with the long - term price center moving down to promote capacity reduction [3][8] 3. Individual Product Analyses Steel - Spot market transactions are average, but speculative sentiment has improved. Steel production shows a downward sign, while demand continues to recover, and inventory is decreasing. Short - term the futures price has a rebound drive, but the upward space is limited due to high inventory [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions increased, and the spot price was strong. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased slightly, and the arrival volume has a rebound expectation. Demand - side iron water output declined marginally, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term with macro - expectations dominant [9][10] Scrap Steel - Supply has decreased slightly, and electric furnace profits have increased. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to follow the finished products [11] Coke - The futures price oscillated strongly. Supply is hard to increase due to cost and environmental factors. Demand may decline slightly, and inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate with continued game between steel and coke enterprises [12] Coking Coal - The futures price oscillated strongly. Supply is hard to improve due to production disturbances in mines. Import resources are tight, and inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [13] Glass - The price oscillated. Supply may be affected by gas - related changes, but short - term output decline is limited. Demand is weakening, and the replenishment ability is limited. The price rebound space is limited, and it may oscillate downward in the long - term [14] Soda Ash - The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Supply is stable, and demand is okay. The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price has strong bottom support but lacks upward driving force in the short - term. In the long - term, the price center will move down [16] Manganese Silicon - The futures price oscillated strongly following the upward trend of the black sector. Cost increases are limited, and demand support is weakening due to expected steel production decline. Supply is at a high level, and the price increase driving force is insufficient [17] Ferrosilicon - The futures price rebounded after a decline. Cost has increased, and supply pressure is accumulating. Demand may decline due to expected steel production decline. The price has support but limited upward space [18] 4. Index Information Comprehensive Index - The commodity index was 2263.37, up 0.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2558.20, up 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2266.37, up 1.23% [98] Section Index - The steel industry chain index was 2059.83 on October 29, 2025, with a daily increase of 1.85%, a 5 - day increase of 2.55%, a 1 - month increase of 1.03%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.30% [100]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade concerns and positive macro - expectations have led to a significant strengthening of base metals. In the short and medium term, supply - side disturbances and improved macro - expectations are the main drivers. Copper leads the rise of base metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price catch - up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The restart of Sino - US trade negotiations and the release of the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué have improved market sentiment. Supply disturbances continue to increase, with reduced copper ore supply and higher scrap copper recycling costs. Although it is the peak demand season, high prices have curbed demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. - **Alumina**: There are still fundamental pressures, but the valuation has entered a low - level range. The price is expected to fluctuate. The spot price has shown some declines in different regions [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic and overseas macro - environment is positive. The domestic replacement capacity is being put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is ending, and terminal demand is stable. With the copper - aluminum ratio above 4.0, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [12][13]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. There are small - scale production cuts on the supply side, and demand has marginally improved. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile, and the medium - term price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The macro - environment is optimistic, but the supply is loose in the short term, and the demand is entering the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile at a high level, and there is still room for decline in the long term [18][19]. - **Lead**: There are disturbances in recycled lead supply, and social inventory is at a low level. The current demand is in the peak season, and the supply is slightly less than expected. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [22][24]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand sustainability needs attention. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints are strengthening. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, refined tin supply is expected to tighten. Although the inventory has started to accumulate slightly, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On October 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all showed increases. The industrial products index had the highest increase of 0.95% [152]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 27, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.55%, a 5 - day increase of 2.41%, a 1 - month increase of 5.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.71% [153].