证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 关注交易逻辑转变的时点 2025年12月5日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：当前宏观政策真空期，产业逻辑主导市场。钢材市场供需双弱，因需求端未出现明显改善，冬储尚 未启动，谨慎看待螺卷上方空间，螺纹主力2605合约压力位3200，3050一线仍为强支撑。后期关注市场交 易逻辑，可能向宏观预期转变。 铁矿石：本周铁水日产232.3万吨，环比上周减少2.38万吨，同比去年减少0.31万吨。预计铁水产量降至 230万吨以下。本期国内铁矿到港下降，但发运积极。综合判断，预计铁矿继续维持震荡走势。主力2601 合约压力位833，支撑位750。后期关注主力合约移仓换月。 【交易策略】 1、交易逻辑未发生改变前，建议短线操作。 2、市场逻辑转变：12月将由产业驱动转向宏观预期，注意时间拐点。 重要资讯 3、2025年10月全国不锈钢粗钢产量362.44万吨，与2025年9月环比增加7.87万吨，增长2.22%。10月，中国不锈钢进口量 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Fluctuation: Pay Attention to the Transformation of Later Trading Logic" [2] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory trend. The market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected in December [5][6]. - Steel supply and demand are both weak. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Iron ore is also expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. Group 4: Steel Analysis Supply - The output of the five major steel products increased this period. The output of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coils increased. The output of electric - arc furnace steel contributed more to the increase [5][12]. Demand - The apparent demand of all steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [5]. Inventory - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories continued to decline, but the pace of decline slowed down [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [5]. Price Forecast - The pressure level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The pressure level of hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [5]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Supply - The daily output of molten iron this week was 234.68 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 tons. It is expected to continue to decline and may fall below 230 tons. The domestic iron ore arrival at ports was low this period, but the shipment was active. The overseas port inventory was at a high level [5][17]. Price Forecast - It is expected that iron ore will continue to fluctuate. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. Group 6: Trading Strategy - Maintain the judgment of the short - term oscillatory trend of steel and ore. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations [5]. - Pay attention to the time inflection point in December when the market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected [6]. Group 7: Important Information - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [7]. - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from a loss to a profit year - on - year [7]. - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1.561 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period of last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period of last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period of the year before last [7]. - In November 2025, the floating value of the coking coal long - term contract price linked to steel increased by 78 yuan compared with October [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2023, the implementation of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan" has achieved phased results. In December 2024, Document No. 99 provided a clear path for key provinces to exit. Driven by continuous debt resolution policies, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning have achieved certain results in debt resolution, with reduced implicit debt ratios and effectively relieved regional debt pressure. The three northeastern provinces are close to meeting the criteria for exiting the list of key provinces and are expected to be the first to exit in the future [2][5][71]. - Although the asset structures of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian show varying degrees of transformation, with a continuous decline in the proportion of urban investment income, their profits still mainly come from government subsidies, and their self - hematopoietic ability has not been fundamentally improved. The actual transformation path is long and arduous, and it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategic deployment for the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era [3][73][74]. - Urban investment enterprises can rely on regional resource endowments and strategic positions to cultivate industrial clusters with regional characteristics, achieve maximum industrial value - added through regional collaboration and differential development, eliminate inefficient and ineffective investments, and enhance their profitability and self - hematopoietic ability, thereby improving the fiscal health of local governments and providing strong support for regional high - quality development [3][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction - Since 2023, the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan" has achieved phased results. In early 2024, the State Council required key provinces to strengthen the management of government investment projects to prevent and resolve local debt risks. Northeast China, as an important old industrial base, has heavy regional debt pressure and is included in the 12 key debt - resolution provinces [5]. - Document No. 99 proposed exit criteria for key provinces, including two quantitative indicators (implicit debt ratio and local financial debt/GDP) and one qualitative indicator (ability to prevent and resolve local debt risks without policy support), and put forward clear requirements for the exit progress of financing platforms [6][7]. 3.2 Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in the Three Northeastern Provinces 3.2.1 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Resolution Situations in the Three Northeastern Provinces - **Regional Development and Economic - Fiscal Conditions**: The three northeastern provinces are important gateways for opening up to Northeast Asia, with advantages in agriculture, industry, and characteristic industries. However, in 2024, the population decreased by over 800,000, mainly due to low birth rates, deep - seated aging, and labor outflow. In terms of economy and finance, Liaoning ranks high among key provinces, while Heilongjiang and Jilin are in the middle - lower reaches. In terms of debt, Yunnan and Guizhou have heavy debt burdens, Liaoning ranks in the middle, Heilongjiang has relatively low debt, and Jilin has a relatively high debt ratio [9][10]. - **Debt Resolution Progress**: As of the end of 2024, the implicit debt ratios of the three northeastern provinces are lower than the average of the eight non - key provinces with relatively high implicit debt ratios, meeting the quantitative requirements. Heilongjiang and Liaoning have basically met the two quantitative indicators. The three northeastern provinces have made significant progress in debt resolution through various measures. For example, some areas in Heilongjiang have reduced debt risk levels, Jilin has significantly reduced implicit debt, and the number of financing platforms in Jilin and Liaoning has decreased by over 50% [14][17][21]. 3.2.2 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Resolution Situations in Key Cities of the Three Northeastern Provinces - **Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Conditions**: Among the 11 key cities selected, Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, and Harbin have relatively large GDP and general public budget revenues. In 2024, the government debt balances and debt ratios of key cities increased compared with the end of 2023 [28][30][31]. - **Debt Scale and Repayment Pressure of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises**: As of the end of 2024, there are 25 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in the three northeastern provinces. Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have a significantly higher interest - bearing debt scale. Most cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' interest - bearing debt scales decreased in 2024 compared with the end of 2023, but the debt pressure of Changchun, Harbin, and Shenyang increased, while that of Dalian decreased [35][36]. - **Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in Key Cities**: In 2024, the implicit debt scales and implicit debt ratios of key cities in the Northeast decreased. Most key cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' financing costs decreased or remained the same compared with the previous year. The spreads of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in key cities generally decreased [40][46][48]. 3.3 Exploration and Analysis of Development Transformation in Key Cities of the Three Northeastern Provinces 3.3.1 Financial Performance of Urban Investment Enterprises' Transformation - **Investment - related Assets**: From 2022 - 2024, the investment - related assets of Changchun and Shenyang's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased, Harbin's remained stable, and Dalian's decreased. The proportion of investment - related assets in Changchun, Shenyang, and Dalian increased [54]. - **Urban Investment - related Assets**: Shenyang and Harbin's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises reduced urban investment - related assets, while Changchun's increased, and Dalian's showed a relative expansion [55]. - **Operation - related Assets**: Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' operation - related assets showed a relative contraction, Harbin and Dalian's contracted, and Shenyang's expanded [59]. - **Urban Investment Business Income**: The proportion of urban investment business income of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian decreased [60]. - **Profitability and Profit Structure**: From 2022 - 2024, Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' profitability declined, while Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian's increased. However, the profits of these enterprises still mainly come from government subsidies [62]. 3.3.2 Industrial Upgrading Directions in Key Cities and Market - oriented Participation of Urban Investment Enterprises - **Industrial Upgrading Directions**: Changchun focuses on the automobile industry and new clusters, Harbin builds a modern industrial system through innovation, Shenyang upgrades its industries in a high - end, intelligent, and green manner, and Dalian develops marine - related industries [66]. - **Market - oriented Participation of Urban Investment Enterprises**: Urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian participate in industrial transformation through infrastructure investment, industrial fund operation, and equity investment [67]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The three northeastern provinces have achieved certain results in debt resolution and are close to meeting the criteria for exiting the list of key provinces. Key cities show different debt situations. Although the asset structures of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in some key cities show transformation, their self - hematopoietic ability has not been fundamentally improved [71][72][73]. - Urban investment enterprises in the three northeastern provinces need to carry out industrial investment around regional industrial upgrading directions, enhance their self - hematopoietic ability, and promote regional high - quality development [74].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment trading has temporarily ended, and the focus will return to the industrial supply side [2]. - For steel, the long - term industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production. In the early stage of production cuts, it may actively suppress furnace materials, and in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance [3]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight currently, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - For iron ore, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2605 was 3166.00 yuan/ton (-18.00, -0.57%), HC2605 was 3318.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2605 was 776.50 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.58%), J2605 was 1916.50 yuan/ton (-22.00, -1.13%), JM2605 was 1354.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +1.10%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2601 was 3106.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +0.48%), HC2601 was 3308.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2601 was 800.00 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.56%), J2601 was 1777.00 yuan/ton (-20.00, -1.11%), JM2601 was 1286.00 yuan/ton (-12.00, -0.92%) [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads on October 31**: RB2601 - 2605 was -60.00 yuan/ton (-13.00), HC2601 - 2605 was -10.00 yuan/ton (+4.00), I2601 - 2605 was 23.50 yuan/ton (-1.00), J2601 - 2605 was -139.50 yuan/ton (+0.50), JM2601 - 2605 was -68.00 yuan/ton (+3.00) [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits on October 31**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.88 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38 (-0.01), the rebar disk profit was -160.25 yuan/ton (+8.88), the coking disk profit was 66.62 yuan/ton (-6.84) [1]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Tianjin rebar was 3170.00 yuan/ton (-40.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3320.00 yuan/ton (-30.00), Tangshan billet was 2970.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the Platts Index was 107.40 (-0.30) [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (-50.00), the billet - to - product spread was 240.00 yuan/ton (+30.00), and Rizhao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Other Spot Prices on October 31**: Alumina was 733.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), a certain product was 775.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), Ganqimao Du coking coal was 1390.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1530.00 yuan/ton (0.00), and Qingdao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Basis on October 31**: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton (+10.00), RB main contract was 104.00 yuan/ton (0.00), I main contract was 44.00 yuan/ton (0.00), J main contract was -96.84 yuan/ton (+9.50), JM main contract was 134.00 yuan/ton (+2.00) [1]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: After the macro - events are realized, the market focus may return to the industry. The static supply - demand is healthy, but market confidence is insufficient. The steel production is expected to decline gradually, which may first suppress furnace materials and then drive the sector to rise [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by the macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the 05 contract for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3].

Group 1 - The international oil market is showing signs of downward pressure from both macroeconomic and industry factors, with weak oil demand and increased production from oil-producing countries leading to high inventory risks [1][2] - Since the beginning of 2024, international crude oil prices have been in a weak oscillating trend, fluctuating between $65 and $85 per barrel, influenced by the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle and relatively stable geopolitical conditions in Europe and the Middle East [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, oil prices are expected to adjust weakly, with a mainstream focus level of $55 to $65 per barrel, primarily due to the Fed's initial rate cut phase and concerns over economic downturn and weakened oil demand [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing production to capture more market share, with a total of 2.2 million barrels per day already released and an additional 1.65 million barrels per day being released, amidst limited demand growth and the increasing impact of renewable energy [2] - The combination of weak macroeconomic conditions and strong expectations for inventory accumulation suggests that crude oil prices are likely to undergo a weak adjustment phase, although geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East could lead to short-term price spikes [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures basis widens again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustment may bring long - position layout opportunities [1]. - Short - term gold price may shift to high - level consolidation, but the long - term center of gravity still has upward space; silver may run at a high level in the short term but has the risk of increased volatility [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates due to weak domestic downstream demand in the off - season and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut; zinc price has limited downside space despite inventory pressure; nickel price follows the macro trend in the short term and long - term surplus pressure remains [1]. - Stainless steel futures fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills; tin price is strong in the short term; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have their own market characteristics and influencing factors [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro drivers; iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts; coal and coke prices are under pressure [1]. - Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to run in a volatile manner; rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed; cotton price may range - bound in the short term; sugar supply is expected to be loose; corn has limited short - term rebound and downward space in the medium term [1]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy - related products are affected by geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; various chemical products such as PTA, short - fiber, and styrene have their own market trends and influencing factors [1]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals; copper price is expected to rise; some products like soda ash and ethylene glycol face supply - surplus pressure [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Treasury bonds**: No clear trend judgment provided [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term high - level consolidation, long - term upward space [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term high - level operation with increased volatility risk [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Aluminum**: Fluctuates due to domestic demand and Fed rate - cut expectation, pay attention to far - month long - position opportunities [1]. - **Zinc**: Limited downside space, be cautious about short - selling in the short term [1]. - **Nickel**: Follows macro trend in the short term, long - term surplus pressure exists, focus on short - term trading and selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak fluctuations, pay attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Strong in the short term [1]. - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, high hedging pressure, polysilicon production cut expected [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Capacity reduction expected in the long - term, low terminal installation willingness, good profit [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Frequent resource - end disturbances, large short - term downstream replenishment, limited subsequent replenishment space [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, warm macro drivers [1]. - **Iron ore**: Upward opportunities in far - month contracts [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Prices are under pressure [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil and soybean oil**: Expected to run in a volatile manner, consider exiting long positions [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Recommended to observe [1]. - **Cotton**: Short - term range - bound [1]. - **Sugar**: Supply expected to be loose, price with upper - bound pressure [1]. - **Corn**: Limited short - term rebound, downward space in the medium term [1]. - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1]. - **Log**: Weakly fluctuating [1]. - **Pig**: Bearish due to increased supply and lower costs [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by geopolitics, OPEC+ policies, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - **PTA**: Production resumes, price difference expands, and short - term upward momentum is strong [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory overhauls increase, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - **Styrene**: Bearish due to industry reform rumors and weakening market transactions [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside space, supported by cost [1]. - **PVC**: Fluctuates weakly, with supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by international oil prices, CP prices, and downstream profit conditions [1]. Others - **Shipping**: Supply exceeds the same - period level, and freight rates decline [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals put pressure on prices [1]. - **Copper**: Expected to rise, consider stopping profit for spot - futures positive spread [1]. - **Soda ash**: Bearish due to supply surplus [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by industry reform rumors and hedging pressure [1].