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包钢股份(600010):稀土业务量价齐升,利润环比显著改善
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-20 10:51
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 681 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.65 billion RMB, down 48.64% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 182.24 billion RMB, an increase of 24.34% quarter-on-quarter and 7.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.81 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from losses and a year-on-year increase of 1835% [2] - The rare earth business has seen both volume and price increases, significantly improving the company's profitability [3] - The company has optimized its product structure, with a 9.65% year-on-year increase in steel sales and a record production of over 1.5 million tons of rare earth steel [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was 70.57 billion RMB, with a projected decline to 68.09 billion RMB in 2024, followed by further declines in 2025 [10] - The net profit for 2023 was 515 million RMB, expected to drop to 265 million RMB in 2024, but forecasted to rebound to 2.24 billion RMB in 2025 [10] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.006 RMB in 2024 to 0.10 RMB by 2027 [10] Business Segments - The rare earth segment has benefited from rising prices and improved demand due to export controls and reduced overseas supply [4] - The steel business is expected to benefit from reduced production and a downturn in iron ore prices, leading to a potential reduction in losses [4] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.68 billion RMB, 63.52 billion RMB, and 64.57 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to rise significantly in the following years [5] - The company is positioned to benefit from its strong rare earth resource base and strategic partnerships, which may enhance both performance and valuation in the future [4]