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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250721
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 01:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities and price trends for various commodities: - **Iron Ore**: Macro - expectations support, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 1 [4][5]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains high, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [8][9][11]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [13][15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has one round of price increase implemented, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends; coking coal shows a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensities are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [16][18]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, with stable and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 0 [20][23]. - **Logs**: Wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 1 [24][27]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fundamentals, price trends, and macro - industry news of various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price trends and trend intensities for each commodity, helping investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). The trading volume was 692,666 lots, a decrease of 10,578 lots. Imported ore prices showed some fluctuations, with the price of 65% Carajás fines rising by 3.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro - industry News**: The China Iron and Steel Association organized a meeting to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry" to prevent over - capacity risks [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.74%); the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.91%). Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [9]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for key industries. Steel production and inventory data showed some changes, and export volume decreased in June [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: The silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5,508 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes and procurement price information for silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions, and manganese ore inventory changed [14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 926 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan (0.82%); the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,518 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.07%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different trends [16]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and changes in the CCI metallurgical coal index [16][17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading volume. Southern port and domestic origin prices were provided, and the long - short positions of the top 20 members remained unchanged [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 828.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different trends, and the prices of various log products in the spot market remained stable [25]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [27].