晨报 成材 逻辑：7 月 21 日，Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均 成本为 3317 元/吨，环比上周五增加 24 元/吨，平均利润为-69 元/吨， 谷电利润为 34 元/吨，环比上周五增加 15 元/吨。7 月 21 日，唐山迁安 普方坯资源出厂含税上调 20，报 3060 元/吨。2025 年 1-6 月，我国造船 完工量 2413 万载重吨，同比下降 3.5%；新接订单量 4433 万载重吨，同 比下降 18.2%；截至 6 月底，手持订单量 23454 万载重吨，同比增长 36.7%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 上周末，工信部发声将推出稳增长方案，中钢协表示要研究建立产能 治理新机制，黑色系周五夜盘开始上涨，昨天开盘延续涨势，螺纹钢和热 卷均创反弹以来新高，成交量、持仓量均有放大。宏观层面利好不断，市 场情绪大幅提升。行业基本面相对一般，尤其是下游需求变化不大。建议 短期观望。 原材料：程 鹏 成材：宏观驱动下 钢价反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities and price trends for various commodities: - **Iron Ore**: Macro - expectations support, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 1 [4][5]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains high, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [8][9][11]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [13][15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has one round of price increase implemented, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends; coking coal shows a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensities are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [16][18]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, with stable and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 0 [20][23]. - **Logs**: Wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 1 [24][27]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fundamentals, price trends, and macro - industry news of various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price trends and trend intensities for each commodity, helping investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). The trading volume was 692,666 lots, a decrease of 10,578 lots. Imported ore prices showed some fluctuations, with the price of 65% Carajás fines rising by 3.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro - industry News**: The China Iron and Steel Association organized a meeting to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry" to prevent over - capacity risks [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.74%); the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.91%). Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [9]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for key industries. Steel production and inventory data showed some changes, and export volume decreased in June [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: The silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5,508 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes and procurement price information for silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions, and manganese ore inventory changed [14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 926 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan (0.82%); the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,518 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.07%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different trends [16]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and changes in the CCI metallurgical coal index [16][17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading volume. Southern port and domestic origin prices were provided, and the long - short positions of the top 20 members remained unchanged [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 828.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different trends, and the prices of various log products in the spot market remained stable [25]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [27].

4月29日，中国钢铁工业协会召开一季度新闻发布会，据中钢协初步统计，一季度，重点统计会员钢铁 企业累计营业收入为14360亿元，同比下降6.61%；营业成本为13505亿元，同比下降7.73%；利润总额 215.83亿元，同比增长1.08倍；平均利润率为1.50%，同比上升0.82个百分点，企业效益有所改善。 钢材库存同比下降，处于近年同期低位。3月下旬，协会重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量约1523万吨，同 比下降17.4%；21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存量为1036万吨，同比下降24.6%。 中国钢铁工业协会副会长兼秘书长姜维表示，一季度，钢铁行业生产经营基本稳定，得益于一二月份企 业控产较好，效益同比有所改善，为全年向好发展奠定了坚实基础。 "3月份以来钢铁供给较快增长而需求下降，打破了来之不易、十分脆弱的市场供需动态平衡，市场供大 于求的态势未变，行业自律仍需加强。"姜维说。 在此背景下，构建钢铁行业产能治理新机制尤为关键。"建立产能治理新机制是解决行业供需矛盾的关 键。"中国钢铁工业协会规划发展部主任王滨表示，钢铁协会一直积极呼吁并组织行业和企业共同研 究，积极推动建立完善既有能耗碳排放政策约束，又有行业 ...