1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is rising, tariff disturbances are increasing, and market sentiment is fluctuating. Macro - policies support the industry, and the supply - demand situation shows that production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, and the cost and profit situation varies by region. Technically, the weekly K - line of manganese - silicon is bearish [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Macro - aspect**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue growth - promoting plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The "two major" construction project list of 800 billion yuan and 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment have been basically allocated. Overseas, there are military threats from the US to Russia, a planned Putin - Trump summit, and the US may impose an additional 15% tariff on Japan [6]. - **Supply - demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 100,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal production is at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 70 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement price in July has increased, and attention should be paid to the steel - making tender price in August [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Treat the silicon - manganese market as fluctuating due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, more tariff disturbances, and volatile market sentiment [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 623,000 lots, a decrease of 35,000 lots from the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts was 98, an increase of 24 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 76,045, a decrease of 1,809. The spread between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts was 274, a decrease of 6 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The basis was - 176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 points [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 43.43%, an increase of 1.25%. The daily output was 27,975 tons, an increase of 715 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 125,200 tons, an increase of 1.20%, and the weekly supply was 195,825 tons, an increase of 2.62% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 161,500 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons. Inventory in different regions showed different changes [32]. - **Upstream**: The price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased by 3 yuan/ton - degree to 34 yuan/ton - degree, and the Australian manganese ore price remained unchanged at 51 yuan/ton - degree. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 110,000 tons to 4.385 million tons. The arrival volume of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon decreased significantly. The northern region's spot production profit was - 85 yuan/ton, and the southern region's was - 410 yuan/ton [38][44][48]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week but an increase of 86,200 tons compared to last year. The Hebei Steel silicon - manganese tender price in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to June [50].

同壁财经8月8日讯，盘面上，基建板块股票异动拉升，新疆交建、汇通集团、上海港湾涨停，北新路桥、霍普股份、美丽生态等个股涨幅居前。 | 序号 代码 | | 类型 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 溢 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 159542 | 主 工程机械ETF | 1.284 | 0.029 | 2.31% | 012 | | 2 | 513520 | 跨 日经ETF T+0 | 1.579 | 0.032 | 2.07% | -0.0 | | 3 | 513880 | 跨 ■经225ETF T+0 | 1.466 | 0.030 | 2.09% | -0.0 | | 4 | 513000 | 跨 日经225ETF易方达 T+0 1.578 | | 0.031 | 2.00% | -0.0 | | 5 | 159866 | 跨 日经ETF T+0 | 1.185 | 0.022 | 1.89% | OLO | | 6 | 560280 | ■ 工程机械ETF | 1.447 | 0.027 | 1.90% | 011 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand remains relatively stable, with industry expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply remains high but growth slows down, and demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventory has a slight accumulation, and long - term expectations are still positive after policy - guided optimization. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens during the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,560 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,227 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; that of alumina was 12 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 225,945 lots, down 1,091 lots; that of the alumina main contract was 124,750 lots, down 4,932 lots. The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 11,500 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 463,725 tons, up 925 tons. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory in the SHFE was 117,527 tons, up 1,737 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts in the SHFE were 46,649 tons, down 2,009 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 11,315 lots, up 9,377 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00, up 0.02. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,005 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,460 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 45 yuan/ton, down 665 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium/discount was - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 2.62 dollars/ton, up 0.02 dollars. The basis of alumina was - 5 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The alumina production was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the alumina开工 rate was 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons. The import of alumina was 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons; the export of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; that in Shandong metal scrap was 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import of aluminum scrap was 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export of aluminum scrap was 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - related**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity was 4,520.70 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum开工 rate was 97.68%, up 0.03 percentage points; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 49.70 million tons, down 30,781 tons. The production of aluminum materials was 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - **Trade - related**: The import of primary aluminum was 192,314.50 tons; the export of primary aluminum was 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy was 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The automobile production was 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 9.50%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 9.31%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 9.48%, down 0.0006 [2]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.22, down 0.0494 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and may cut by 50 basis points if the unemployment rate rises further. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements around the end of the third quarter [2]. - **Industry - specific News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue steady - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The expected wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in July were 1.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. In August, the new - house supply decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the machinery, automotive, and power equipment industries [1] - The plan focuses on enhancing the quality of supply capabilities and optimizing the development environment of the industry [1] - The goal is to promote effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the phosphate industry in China, highlighting the challenges faced by the ammonium phosphate sector due to regulatory changes and market dynamics, while also noting the potential for export opportunities in the second half of 2025 [2][3][4][7]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of July 18, 2025, the Chinese government plans to implement a new round of growth stabilization measures for key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, which may indirectly impact the phosphate sector [2]. - Since 2022, stricter export policies for ammonium phosphate have led to a significant decline in production and operating rates, with the operating rate for monoammonium phosphate dropping to 56.3% in 2022, and remaining below 60% in 2023 and beyond [3][4]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Dynamics - The profitability of ammonium phosphate has been under pressure due to high raw material costs and subdued export demand, with average gross profits for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate reported at -58.7 CNY/ton and -128.9 CNY/ton respectively in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - Leading companies in the phosphate sector have managed to maintain profitability by securing upstream resources, while those lacking such integration face significant financial challenges [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The average price of domestic phosphate rock was approximately 1019 CNY/ton in the first half of 2025, showing a slight increase from the previous year, but no growth in effective production capacity was observed [6]. - New phosphate rock production capacity is expected to be delayed, with only 250,000 tons projected to come online in 2025, indicating a continued high demand for existing high-grade phosphate rock [6]. Group 4: Export Opportunities - The price gap between domestic and international ammonium phosphate has widened, with international prices rising significantly due to geopolitical factors, creating potential for increased exports from China in the latter half of 2025 [7]. - Export quotas for ammonium phosphate are typically concentrated in the second and third quarters, suggesting that a surge in exports may occur in Q3 2025, benefiting domestic exporters [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the phosphate chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall operating rate of phosphate ammonium is low, but leading companies have sufficient resources and can achieve considerable profits [1][5] - Since 2022, stricter export policies for phosphate ammonium have led to a decline in domestic operating rates, with the operating rate for monoammonium phosphate remaining below 60% [4][5] - The profitability of the phosphate ammonium segment is under pressure, but leading companies benefit from their upstream resource reserves [5][6] - The price gap between domestic and overseas phosphate ammonium has widened, with expectations for increased exports in Q3 due to high overseas prices [7][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The phosphate ammonium industry has faced challenges due to export restrictions and regulatory impacts, leading to a significant drop in production and operating rates [4] - The average operating rate for monoammonium phosphate in the first half of 2025 was approximately 53.2% [4] Profitability Analysis - The average gross profit margins for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were negative in the first half of 2025, marking a significant decline compared to previous years [5] - Leading companies have managed to maintain profitability through strategic resource allocation and upstream integration [5][6] Market Dynamics - The average price of domestic phosphate rock has seen a slight increase, with expectations for continued high demand in the medium term [6] - The report highlights the potential for increased exports of phosphate fertilizers in Q3, driven by higher overseas prices [7][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated industry consolidation and resource advantages [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Zhengfeng Zhivol" initiative launched by the China Pesticide Industry Association to address issues such as hidden additives, illegal production, and disorderly competition in the pesticide industry, aiming for significant improvements by the end of 2027 [2][3]. Group 1: "Zhengfeng Zhivol" Initiative - The initiative prohibits the addition of hidden or unregistered active ingredients in products and aims to combat illegal production and low-price competition [3][4]. - Companies are required to establish electronic traceability systems for raw material procurement and sales, integrating compliance into a credit evaluation system [3][4]. - A digital management platform will be developed using advanced technologies like big data and blockchain to ensure traceability and compliance in the pesticide industry [3][4]. Group 2: Central Government's Stance on "Involution" - The central government has shown a strong commitment to addressing "involution" in various industries, emphasizing the need for market mechanisms that promote competition and the exit of inefficient capacities [6]. - Recent meetings and reports from the central government highlight the importance of regulating low-price competition and encouraging product quality improvements [6][7]. Group 3: Environmental Regulations and Industry Trends - Stricter environmental regulations are leading to a transformation in China's pesticide industry towards greener and cleaner production methods [8][9]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-efficiency, low-risk new chemical pesticides and biological pesticides, with a gradual elimination of older, high-toxicity products [9]. - The market concentration in the pesticide production sector is expected to increase, with a focus on sustainable practices and compliance with environmental standards [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment and improved raw material fundamentals drive the strengthening of futures and spot markets. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce measures to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity in key industries, leading to strong macro expectations. The China Iron and Steel Association aims to prevent over - capacity risks. - Overseas, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden. - In terms of supply and demand, coke has a third price increase. Raw material supply is improving. Iron - water production is at a high level, and most coal mines have no inventory pressure, with strong price - holding intentions. The total coking coal inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton. - Technically, the daily K - line of the coke main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend. - Strategy suggestion: With positive macro expectations and the market sentiment extremely high due to coking coal's five daily limit up movements driving coke's one daily limit up, the coke main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a plan to promote structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity in key industries. The China Iron and Steel Association focuses on preventing over - capacity risks [9]. - **Overseas**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coke has a third price increase. Raw material supply is improving. Current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons. Iron - water production is at a high level. Most coal mines have no inventory pressure, and coal mines have strong price - holding intentions. The total coking coal inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton [9]. - **Technical**: The daily K - line of the coke main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend [9]. - **Strategy**: The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 25, the coke futures contract position is 55,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 166 lots. The 1 - 9 contract month spread is 48.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points. The registered coke warehouse receipt is 760 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The futures screw - coke ratio is 1.90, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 [13][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 24, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the coke basis is - 405.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 166.0 [26]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61%, an increase of 0.71%. The daily coke output is 51.92, an increase of 0.51. The coke inventory is 50.12, a decrease of 5.43. The total coking coal inventory is 841.21, an increase of 51.02. The available coking coal days are 12.2 days, an increase of 0.62 days [34]. - **Downstream**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 242.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.62 tons. As of July 18, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 886.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.37 tons and a year - on - year increase of 13.62% [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port inventory of coking coal and coke has decreased. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills has increased. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 86.97%, an increase of 0.13%, and the daily coke output is 47.16, an increase of 0.07 [42]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's coke and semi - coke exports were 51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.3%; from January to June, the cumulative exports were 351 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%. In June, China's steel exports were 967.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 5,814.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [46]. - **Housing Data**: In June 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of July 20, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 133.91 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74%. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities increased by 23.12% month - on - month, while that in second - tier cities decreased by 12.39% month - on - month [51][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The rise of ferroalloys is mainly driven by strong policy expectations, macro - sentiment, and the increase in coal - based prices on the cost side, and the short - term outlook is optimistic. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small. Silicomanganese is in a destocking trend, and although the inventory of ferrosilicon is high, coal prices support the price of ferrosilicon. However, there is uncertainty about whether the price can continue to rise. The implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's work plan and the enterprise meeting have stimulated market confidence, but there are uncertainties in the specific implementation and the policy may deviate significantly from market expectations. If the coal price increase is a short - term fluctuation, the support of the cost side for ferroalloy prices will weaken as coal production capacity is released and imports increase [3][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy's Strong Expectations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. The ferroalloy industry has relatively serious over - capacity in the steel industry. Market expectations are that ferroalloy prices will rise based on the price changes during the 2015 supply - side reform [4][5] Ferroalloy Enterprises' Anti -内卷 Symposium - Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy has not been implemented and it is uncertain whether it includes the ferroalloy industry, the internal meeting of the ferroalloy industry verifies market expectations. Due to the relatively low price of the manganese ore market and the low inventory of manganese ore in production enterprises, production enterprises have actively replenished their stocks, boosting the rise of ferroalloys [9] Increase in Coal - based Costs - The continuous increase in coking coal prices has led to an increase in ferroalloy costs because of the high correlation between ferroalloy costs and coal - based prices. With the coking coal main contract hitting the daily limit for many consecutive days, there is a possibility of a supplementary increase in ferroalloy futures [18] Future Sustainability - There is uncertainty about whether the ferroalloy price can continue to rise. The implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's work plan has uncertainties, and the policy may deviate from market expectations. If the coal price increase is short - term, the support of the cost side for ferroalloy prices will weaken as coal production capacity is released and imports increase [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term policy expectation has a greater impact on coal and coal - chemical industries than the fundamentals. The supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure when domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see for now (View Score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, UR01 closed at 1796 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from July 23; UR05 closed at 1804 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; UR09 closed at 1785 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1775 yuan/ton, with a high of 1796 yuan/ton, a low of 1768 yuan/ton, and closed at 1785 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 1782 yuan/ton, and a position of 173,791 lots [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In most regions, domestic small - particle urea spot prices decreased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1830 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton (-1.09%); in Henan, from 1850 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton (-1.08%); in Hebei, from 1800 yuan/ton to 1780 yuan/ton (-1.11%); in Jiangsu, from 1840 yuan/ton to 1820 yuan/ton (-1.09%). The price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi and downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 24 compared to July 23 [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 37 yuan/ton on July 23 to 6 yuan/ton on July 24, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread**: The spread of 01 - 05 increased from - 14 yuan/ton on July 23 to - 8 yuan/ton on July 24, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply pressure of urea is large, with daily production close to 200,000 tons, which is at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still about 750,000 tons, although the enterprise inventory has continued to decline slightly, mainly due to the increase in port collection [1]. - **Demand**: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].