Group 1 - Steel stocks have shown strong gains, with Chongqing Steel rising by 26.09% to HKD 1.45, Ansteel increasing by 9.64% to HKD 2.16, and Maanshan Steel up by 5.53% to HKD 2.67 [1] - Changjiang Securities indicates that the steel sector has significant elasticity and potential for exceeding expectations, despite low industry sentiment and cautious outlook [1] - Current winter storage levels are the weakest in recent years, and total inventory of five major steel products is at a near historical low, reflecting a cautious and pessimistic industry mindset [1] Group 2 - Low inventory levels may alleviate post-holiday destocking pressure, and the price bottoming out suggests that price adjustments have been sufficiently made, leading to a gradual weak balance in supply and demand [1] - The firm suggests that with both fundamentals and prices having sufficiently bottomed, any catalysts on the demand or supply side could lead to significant price increases for finished steel products [1] - The probability of price increases for finished steel is currently greater than that of decreases, and once prices rise, the elasticity of such increases is expected to be notable [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The report indicates that after three years of adjustment, the current position of the steel sector offers high cost-effectiveness, with leading enterprises showing improved profitability and stability [8][13]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks post-May Day, leading to potential profit squeezes for iron ore suppliers. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is highlighted as a key factor [8][13]. Steel Sector - The weekly consumption of rebar decreased to 2.6 million tons, a significant drop of 5.07% week-on-week. The average price of rebar increased slightly by 1.34% to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices fell by 1.54% to 3,812 CNY/ton [14][36]. - Total steel inventory decreased significantly, with a total of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of rebar production has improved, with long-process rebar margins increasing by 25 CNY/ton and short-process margins rising by 350 CNY/ton [34][36]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a deepening negative value for copper TC/RC, with the average LME aluminum price rising by 3.63% to 2,412 USD/ton. The cost of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang decreased significantly by 16.22%, leading to a substantial profit increase [16][28]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that tariffs may boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. As of April 25, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week [16][48]. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 57.44% in February 2025, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 69,600 CNY/ton. Nickel and cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with nickel prices declining [15][39][48].