Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, tungsten prices have surged dramatically, with upstream companies gaining significant control over the market dynamics, while midstream companies face increasing cost pressures [1][4][19]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Tungsten prices have increased by over 50% from the low points at the beginning of the year, with some products seeing nearly 100% annual price increases [5][12]. - As of September 24, European APT prices have risen to between $580 and $645 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 30% [6]. - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with upstream companies adopting a "reluctant selling" strategy, controlling the supply to maintain high prices [3][4][14]. Group 2: Upstream and Midstream Challenges - Upstream companies are experiencing a "golden era" due to fundamental shifts in supply and demand, with a reported 60% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for midstream companies [8][24]. - A significant reduction in tungsten concentrate mining quotas has exacerbated the supply shortage, with the first batch of quotas for 2025 set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% year-on-year [8][15]. - Midstream companies are struggling with profit margins, as the cost of tungsten concentrate has risen significantly while the selling price of APT has not kept pace [24][25]. Group 3: International Trade and Policy Implications - China's tungsten exports have decreased by 34.56% in the first seven months of 2025, while imports surged by 45.57%, indicating a shift in the global tungsten trade landscape [15][26]. - Regulatory discussions are underway regarding "flexible mining quotas" to balance supply and environmental concerns, although there are fears this may reduce resource tax revenues [9][38]. Group 4: Technological Innovations and Future Outlook - The introduction of efficient tungsten waste recycling technologies could potentially reduce the demand for primary tungsten by up to 30% if scaled effectively [41][42]. - The market is approaching a critical point, with potential price corrections anticipated as downstream companies struggle with rising costs and reduced orders from clients [36][39].

Core Insights - The tungsten industry is experiencing a significant price surge, with prices for major tungsten products rising over 50% since the beginning of the year, and some products seeing nearly 100% annual increases [4][11] - Upstream tungsten mining companies are adopting a "hold and price" strategy, controlling supply to maximize profits, while downstream companies face increasing costs and pressure from rising prices [3][7][10] - The supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by a decrease in mining quotas and a surge in demand for tungsten in the photovoltaic sector, leading to a tightening market [5][14][33] Price Trends - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs, with black tungsten concentrate prices exceeding 270,000 yuan/ton, a 92% increase from the beginning of the year [11] - The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) has also seen significant increases, with current prices ranging from 580 to 645 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 30% [5][13] - The rapid price increases have led to a situation where upstream companies are prioritizing domestic demand over international buyers, despite higher offers from overseas [6][13] Supply Chain Dynamics - Upstream companies are now in a position of power, controlling the supply and dictating terms to downstream processors, who are struggling with rising procurement costs [7][15][16] - Downstream companies report that their profit margins are being squeezed, with procurement costs for tungsten concentrate rising by 60% while the selling price of APT has only increased by 25% [19][20] - The overall inventory levels in the tungsten market are critically low, with social inventory dropping below 200 tons, indicating a tight supply situation [16] Market Challenges - The downstream sector is facing a cash flow crisis, with extended payment terms from customers and rising costs from suppliers, leading to increased financial strain [21][30] - Some downstream companies are exploring alternative materials to tungsten due to high prices, which could disrupt traditional demand [28][30] - The overall manufacturing PMI remains below the growth line, indicating broader economic challenges that could impact tungsten demand [32] Future Outlook - Regulatory bodies are considering flexible mining quotas to balance supply and environmental concerns, but there are fears that this could reduce tax revenues [8][32] - Technological advancements in tungsten recycling may provide a long-term solution to supply issues, but these innovations require time to develop and implement [34] - The current market dynamics suggest that if tungsten prices exceed 450,000 yuan/ton, a significant portion of small to medium-sized alloy enterprises may cease operations [33]