证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 金融工程日报 A 股强势上涨，成交额再破 3 万亿创 9·24 行情以来历史次高 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：今日(20250825) 市场全线上涨，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较 好，板块指数中科创 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 成长指数表现 较好。有色金属、通信、房地产、商贸零售、食品饮料行业表现较好，纺织 服装、综合金融、石油石化、轻工制造、银行行业表现较差。钨矿、光模块 (CPO)、稀土、光纤、光通信等概念表现较好，电动车、中国广电、家纺、 快递、长江存储等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日市场情绪较为高涨，收盘时有 91 只股票涨停，有 8 只股票 跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 3.51%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 -4.62%。今日封板率 68%，较前日下降 16%，连板率 23%，较前日下降 1%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250822 两融余额为 21551 亿元，其中融资余额 21401 亿元，融券余额 149 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 11.5%。 折溢价：20250822 当日 ...

招股书显示，佳鑫国际资源是扎根于哈萨克斯坦的钨矿公司，专注于开发集团的巴库塔钨矿项目，根据 弗若斯特沙利文的资料，截至2024年12月31日，那是一个全球最大型三氧化钨(WO3)矿产资源量露天钨 矿。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，截至2024年12月31日，集团的巴库塔钨矿亦是全球第四大WO3矿产 资源量钨矿(包括露天钨矿及地下钨矿)，在单一钨矿中拥有世界上最大的设计钨矿产能。 钨矿公司佳鑫国际资源(03858)于8月20日至25日中午进行招股，最新已结束认购。截至8月25日(周一)下 午2时，佳鑫国际资源孖展认购金额达1440亿港元，以公开发售集资额1.2亿港元计，超购接近1200倍。 据悉，佳鑫国际资源计划发行1.1亿股，其中10%于香港作公开发售，发售价为每股10.92港元，集资近 12亿港元，每手400股，一手入场费约4412.1港元。佳鑫国际资源将于8月28日挂牌，中金公司 （601995）为独家保荐人。 于往绩记录期，集团主要专注于为巴库塔钨矿项目的商业生产作准备。巴库塔钨矿项目于2025年4月开 始一期商业生产，2025年的目标年度采矿及矿物加工能力为330万吨钨矿石。 财务资料显示，集团于2022 ...

假设超额配股权并无获行使及按发售价每股发售股份10.92港元计算，扣除集团于全球发售中应付的包 销费用及开支后，集团估计集团将获得所得款项净额约10.88亿港元。集团计划将全球发售所得款项净 额用于以下用途：(i)约55.0%将用作拨付巴库塔钨矿项目开发的资本成本。其中约17.5%将用作拨付有 关巴库塔钨矿项目开发尾矿库的资本成本。约27.5%将用作拨付有关巴库塔钨矿项目建立选矿厂的资本 成本。约10.0%将用作拨付为集团二期商业生产建立矿石分选系统;(ii)约10.0%将用作发展集团的仲钨酸 铵(APT)生产能力。其中约6.0%将用于仲钨酸铵生产设施的初步设计。约2.0%将用于进行有关潜在客户 及仲钨酸铵需求的市场研究。约1.0%将用于进行仲钨酸铵生产的可行性研究。约1.0%将用于杂项开 支，主要包括差旅及交通开支;(iii)约25.0%将用作偿还集团部分以欧元计值的银行贷款的本金总额及应 计利息;(iv)约10.0%将分配作营运资金及其他一般公司用途。 于往绩记录期，集团主要专注于筹备巴库塔钨矿项目的商业生产，因此，于2022年、2023年及2024年12 月31日止年度以及截至2025年6月30日止6个 ...

Group 1 - The price of antimony in the domestic market has likely reached its bottom, with expectations of recovery due to seasonal demand and potential export growth [1] - Tungsten product prices are hitting new highs, driven by a decrease in supply from domestic quotas and environmental inspections, while overseas production increases are below expectations [1] - The upcoming peak season for flame retardants in September and October may significantly boost domestic antimony prices if export demand recovers [1] Group 2 - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with upstream equipment segments expected to benefit first as production processes are optimized [2] - The production process of solid-state batteries differs from traditional lithium batteries, leading to a significant increase in the value of equipment used in the early and mid-stages of production [2] - The transition to dry processing techniques in the electrode and electrolyte preparation stages enhances the value contribution of these processes [2] Group 3 - The monetary policy in the second half of the year may be more accommodative than expected, focusing on economic growth and employment [3] - External factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may create favorable conditions for monetary easing in China [3] - Domestic economic pressures, including the impact of tariffs and low inflation, suggest a need for further reductions in policy interest rates [3]

Core Insights - The global tungsten market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with domestic black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a three-year high of approximately 25,600 USD/ton, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [1] - Jiaxin International Resource Investment Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the listing hearing on August 11, 2025, with CICC as the sole sponsor, positioning itself to capitalize on the favorable market conditions [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiaxin International's Bakuta tungsten mine is recognized as the largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of WO3 resources globally, with a planned annual mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore starting from April 2025 [1] - The estimated mineral resource of the Bakuta tungsten mine is approximately 107.5 million tons, containing 227.3 thousand tons of WO3, with a credible ore reserve of 68.4 million tons [2][3] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from scarce resources and low costs, creating a competitive moat, with the Bakuta tungsten mine's resources being critical in a market where China accounts for 80% of global tungsten production [3] - The Bakuta mine's second-phase development is included in Kazakhstan's strategic mineral list, with local government support in terms of tax incentives and infrastructure [3] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Jiaxin International's unique shareholder background, including Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction, provides synergistic advantages across the entire industry chain, reducing sales risks and logistics costs by 15%-20% [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the current strong supply-demand dynamics in the tungsten market, with a planned 60% of its fundraising allocated to the second phase of the Bakuta project [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected increase in tungsten consumption driven by sectors such as renewable energy and military applications, leading to a forecasted demand of 15.11 million tons by 2028 [6] - The company is poised to capitalize on the rising tungsten prices, which are anticipated to reach historical highs due to tightening supply and increasing demand from both domestic and international markets [7] Group 5: Future Prospects - Jiaxin International's story is characterized by the race between resource endowment and commercial realization, with the potential for cash flow and valuation re-rating if commercialization proceeds smoothly [8] - The company is expected to become a significant player in the international tungsten market, leveraging its strategic resource acquisition and strong partnerships to navigate industry fluctuations [10]

Group 1 - The global tungsten market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with domestic black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a three-year high of approximately 25,600 USD/ton, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The Bakuta tungsten mine, owned by Jiaxin International, is recognized as the largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of WO₃ resources globally, with a planned annual mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore starting from April 2025 [1][2] - The global tungsten supply is highly concentrated, with China accounting for 80% of production, prompting Europe and the US to seek diversified sources, which Jiaxin International's overseas assets can fulfill [3] Group 2 - Jiaxin International's core competitive advantage lies in its resource endowment, with an estimated mineral resource of approximately 107 million tons containing 0.211% WO₃, translating to about 227,300 tons of WO₃ [2][3] - The company benefits from strong support from state-owned enterprises, with Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction providing synergies in upstream smelting and infrastructure, respectively, reducing logistics costs by 15%-20% [4] - The company plans to allocate 60% of its fundraising for the second phase of the Bakuta project, aiming to increase its annual mining and processing capacity to 4.95 million tons by 2027 [5] Group 3 - The global tungsten market is characterized by strong supply and demand, with a projected increase in tungsten consumption driven by sectors such as renewable energy and military applications [5][6] - The global tungsten supply has been tightening, with a significant gap between production and consumption, indicating a strong demand for tungsten resources [6][9] - Jiaxin International's strategic positioning and resource development are expected to enhance its capital strength and operational resilience, making it a key player in the international tungsten market [11]

格隆汇8月12日｜据中钨在线，钨市涨声继续，钨精矿和主要钨制品价格迭创新高。月初市场经历短暂 微跌后迅速回归稳健，消费端虽未得到充分喘息，但原料端挺市态度坚决，整体钨价走势坚挺。行情的 主要驱动因素仍为供给端紧缺与持货商惜售，叠加国际价格传导与政策预期共振。截至发稿，仲钨酸铵 (APT)价格报29.1万元/吨，较年初涨37.9%；钨粉价格报438元/公斤，较年初涨38.6%；70钨铁价格报30 万元/吨，较年初涨39.5%；废钨棒材价格报327元/公斤，较年初涨48.6%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the "anti-involution" trend may be coming to an end, speculation on price increases, particularly in tungsten, is likely to continue due to rising prices and supply constraints [1] - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached new highs since May 13, driven by tightening supply and stricter environmental policies, with predictions of a supply-demand gap exceeding 4,600 tons by 2025 [1] Group 2 - There is a significant cognitive gap between institutions and retail investors, as institutional funds may not always translate positive news into stock price increases [6][11] - The market reality shows that over 80% of stocks have institutional funds, but the key factor is whether these funds are actively participating in trading [11] - The "institutional inventory" data indicates that institutional participation can significantly influence stock price movements, as seen in the case of Moutai, where institutional activity decreased before the stock price fell [11][13] Group 3 - The demand for tungsten is expected to grow in sectors like photovoltaics, military, and nuclear fusion, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten appearing to be promising investment targets [6][14] - However, these positive indicators may already be priced in, and true investment opportunities often arise from discrepancies between market expectations and actual performance [14] - Investors should be cautious of superficial positive news and utilize data analysis tools to assess institutional behavior and actual fund movements [16]

Group 1: Price Trends - Tungsten prices have been rising continuously this year, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) reaching 190,000 yuan/ton, up 32.9% since the beginning of the year [1] - White tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is priced at 189,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.1% year-to-date [1] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) is at 280,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 32.7% rise since the start of the year [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share tungsten sector has seen a cumulative increase of over 60% as of July 25 this year [1] - Market funds are beginning to reassess investment opportunities in tungsten, which has been undervalued compared to other non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The Ministry of Natural Resources has set a total tungsten mining quota of 58,000 tons for the first batch in 2025, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 6.45% from the previous year [1] - Major tungsten-producing provinces, Jiangxi and Yunnan, have reduced their mining volumes by 2,370 tons and 400 tons, respectively [1] - The natural decline in tungsten ore grades is providing strong support for tungsten prices [1] Group 4: Demand Drivers - The demand for tungsten products is increasing due to the accelerated transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing sector, particularly in photovoltaic and hard alloy fields [2] - The market size for tungsten wire used in photovoltaic cutting is projected to grow from 719 million yuan in 2022 to 6.659 billion yuan by 2025 [2] - Companies like Guangdong Xianglu Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. are ramping up production capabilities, with plans for an annual output of 30 billion meters of ultra-fine tungsten wire [2] Group 5: Industry Responses - Companies are actively responding to the challenges and opportunities presented by rising tungsten prices, with upstream mining firms leveraging resource advantages and downstream firms optimizing product structures [2] - Changyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. is enhancing its resource base through the integration of mining rights and increased exploration efforts [2] - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. aims to increase its tungsten resource assurance rate from 20% to 70% in the future [3] Group 6: Innovation and Cost Management - Companies are improving processes to manage cost pressures and enhance product value, such as Zhongtung High-tech Materials Co., Ltd. extending APT into micro-drill production for printed circuit boards [3] - The focus on high-value-added products is seen as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with raw material price fluctuations [3] - The impact of rising tungsten prices varies across the industry, with upstream companies benefiting from higher prices while downstream firms need to invest in product upgrades and innovation capabilities [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points, reaching a new high for the year, but closed slightly up by 0.01% at 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37% to 11059.04 points, and the ChiNext Index was down by 0.01% to 2310.67 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 189.87 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 30 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Various sectors showed mixed performance, with military, electricity, construction, and liquor sectors declining, while insurance, brokerage, and banking sectors saw gains [1] Hainan Free Trade Port Development - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its full island closure on December 18, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its development [2] - The policy will promote high-quality development by implementing "open on one line, controlled on another line, and free within the island" [2] - The tourism industry in Hainan is expected to benefit significantly, with related businesses such as scenic spots, hotels, and travel retailers poised for long-term gains [2] Tungsten Market Dynamics - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a historical high of 182,500 yuan per ton as of July 21, with a continuous upward trend since May 13 [3] - The supply-demand balance for tungsten is expected to remain tight, and despite potential price corrections, tungsten prices are projected to stay high over the next three years [3] Nuclear Fusion Industry Developments - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., a subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation, aims to advance fusion engineering and commercialization [4] - Global investment in the fusion industry has reached $7.1 billion, with China's significant funding expected to drive growth in core areas such as superconducting materials and magnet systems by 2027 [4] - The technology spillover effects from fusion research are anticipated to open new markets in medical devices and new materials [4] Agricultural Sector Initiatives - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on promoting high-quality development in the pig industry, emphasizing market guidance and policy support [6] Industrial Robotics Market Growth - China remains the largest market for industrial robots globally, with a notable increase in demand from the 3C industry due to national subsidy policies [9] - A specific industrial robot manufacturer in Shenzhen reported that orders are already booked until November, reflecting strong market demand [9] - In the first half of 2025, China's cumulative production of industrial robots reached 369,300 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.6% [9]