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钨价狂飙,产业链上演“三国杀”
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-25 10:57
本文来自微信公众号:经济观察报 (ID:eeo-com-cn),作者:王雅洁,题图来自:视觉中国 9月22日,江西赣州,一家钨矿的销售总监王磊挂断了欧洲买家加价三成求购黑钨精矿的电话。 他随即对团队成员表示,月度现货投放量要控制在200吨以内。 王磊手握的钨矿山出货单显示,9月下半月黑钨精矿发货量比上月同期减少30%,库存周转天数从15天 延长至45天。 这种"惜售"策略背后,是钨产业链上游企业面对历史新高钨价的自信抉择。 2025年以来,钨价一路狂飙。 从8月21日至今,钨价几乎每天都在快速上涨。 9月24日数据显示,欧洲APT(仲钨酸铵,钨精矿经过冶炼加工后的一种重要中间产品,欧洲APT价格 是国际主流钨价指标)价格已飙升至580美元/吨度至645美元/吨度(鹿特丹到岸价),同比上涨超 30%。 王磊说:"现在不是我们在卖矿,是矿在'挑'客户。" 他对经济观察报表示,9月上旬,曾有国内冶炼厂负责人亲自带队来矿区驻守三天,只为争取100吨钨精 矿的优先采购权。 当上游开始"掌控"游戏规则,中游却逐渐面临成本困局。 面对上游矿企的"惜售挺价",江西某冶炼厂厂长李建国形容自己所在的中游企业像"夹心饼干"。他向经 ...
钨价狂飙!业内人士:不是周期性涨价,是战略资源价值的系统性重估
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-25 08:36
格隆汇9月25日|经济观察网文章称,欧洲买家加价三成向中国卖家求购黑钨精矿而不可得,这种"惜 售"策略背后,是钨产业链上游企业面对历史新高钨价的自信抉择。2025年以来,钨价一路狂飙。国内 主要钨产品年内均值较年初低点普遍上涨超过50%,部分产品价格年度累计涨幅已达近100%。 文章提 到,9月24日数据显示,欧洲APT(仲钨酸铵,钨精矿经过冶炼加工后的一种重要中间产品,欧洲APT价 格是国际主流钨价指标)价格已飙升至580美元/吨度-645美元/吨度(鹿特丹到岸价),同比上涨超30%。现 在国内APT社会库存(社会库存是钨市场供需关系的重要体现,它包括经销商、贸易商、下游企业和仓 储等环节的库存)已降至200吨以下(正常水平为600吨),硬质合金企业原料库存仅剩12天(安全线30天)。 业内人士称这不是周期性涨价,而是战略资源价值的系统性重估。 ...
钨价狂飙:上游“惜售”与下游“断炊”
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-09-25 03:58
他随即对团队成员表示,月度现货投放量要控制在200吨以内。 经济观察报记者王雅洁 9月22日,江西赣州,一家钨矿的销售总监王磊挂断了欧洲买家加价三成求购黑钨精矿的电话。 王磊手握的钨矿山出货单显示,9月下半月黑钨精矿发货量比上月同期减少30%,库存周转天数从15天 延长至45天。 这种"惜售"策略背后,是钨产业链上游企业面对历史新高钨价的自信抉择。 2025年以来,钨价一路狂飙。 面对上游矿企的"惜售挺价",江西某冶炼厂厂长李建国形容自己所在的中游企业像"夹心饼干"。他向经 济观察报展示的账本显示,2025年8月该企业钨精矿采购成本同比飙涨60%,而产出的仲钨酸铵售价涨 幅仅25%。 王磊认为,上游矿企的"黄金时代"源于供需基本面的根本转变。这种供需错配正在钨市场引发连锁反 应。 2025年,首批钨精矿开采总量指标降至5.8万吨,同比缩减6.45%,而光伏钨丝需求爆发式增长让供需缺 口持续扩大。 为了应对种种供需矛盾,一名监管部门的人士透露,相关部门正在研讨钨矿"弹性开采指标"的可行性方 案,考虑对采用绿色开采技术的矿企给予5%的配额上浮,以期在保供与环保之间取得平衡。 国内主要钨产品年内均值较年初低点普遍上 ...
重塑钨权:供需趋紧叠加战略属性强化,资源价值重估正当时
2025-09-08 04:11
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tungsten industry, highlighting supply constraints and strategic importance due to geopolitical factors [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Tightening**: The mining quotas for tungsten concentrate have been reduced year-on-year, leading to a significant decrease in supply. The Ministry of Natural Resources allocated 58,000 tons in April 2025, down by 4,000 tons from the previous year [2][20]. - **Export Controls**: China's export controls on tungsten-related products have resulted in a 17% year-on-year decline in export volumes from January to July 2025, exacerbating global shortages and widening the price gap between domestic and international markets to approximately $30 [2][19]. - **Strategic Demand Growth**: The strategic importance of tungsten is increasing, with the EU and the US classifying it as a critical mineral. This has led to initiatives aimed at increasing reserves and reducing dependency on foreign sources, which is expected to drive long-term price increases [3][20]. - **Limited New Production**: New tungsten mining projects in China, such as the Bohai Cobalt Mine and the Shizhu Garden project, are expected to add only about 5,000 tons of output, insufficient to offset declines from aging mines [5][6]. - **Global Supply Challenges**: The slow progress of overseas tungsten mining projects, such as the Monty-owned Sandongwu mine, further intensifies global supply constraints [8][20]. Additional Important Content - **Tungsten Industry Chain**: The tungsten industry consists of upstream mining, midstream smelting, and downstream processing, with China holding 52% of global reserves and 83% of production [4]. - **Recycling and Secondary Supply**: The development of recycled tungsten is gaining attention, especially in regions with limited primary resources. China aims to increase its recycling rate from 20% to over 30% to mitigate supply shortages [9][10]. - **Demand in Downstream Applications**: The demand for tungsten in various sectors is expected to grow significantly, particularly in hard alloys, photovoltaic applications, and integrated circuits, with projected increases in consumption across these areas [15][16][18]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Zhonggao High-tech and Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and comprehensive industry chains [21]. - **Risk Factors**: Investors are advised to be cautious of price volatility, unexpected declines in ore grades, slower-than-expected manufacturing growth, and project delays, which could impact profitability [22].
国海证券:供需趋紧叠加战略属性强化 首予钨行业“推荐”评级
智通财经网· 2025-09-05 02:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tungsten industry is expected to undergo a systematic re-evaluation due to strengthened regulations, declining resource grades, and geopolitical factors, leading to limited future supply growth [1][3] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has reduced the first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 to 58,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 and 5,000 tons compared to 2024 and 2023 respectively, indicating a clear tightening of mining regulations [1] - China's tungsten ore grade has declined from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28% in 2020, which has significantly limited the release of production capacity due to long-term high-intensity mining [1] Group 2 - The downstream applications of tungsten are expanding, with a projected consumption of 55,300 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, driven by manufacturing upgrades and high demand in mining and machinery sectors [2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost the demand for tungsten materials in tooling and mining equipment [2] Group 3 - Export controls on tungsten and the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. are reshaping the industry landscape, with China implementing export restrictions on various tungsten products to promote domestic industrial upgrades [3] - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on certain tungsten products imported from China, aimed at weakening China's influence in critical metals and enhancing the self-sufficiency of strategic industries [3]
佳鑫国际资源涨超9% 钨价涨势持续 公司巴库塔钨矿资源丰富
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 02:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in tungsten prices, with major tungsten product prices doubling compared to the average price in 2024 [1] - As of September 3, the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate reached 278,000 CNY per standard ton, marking a 94.4% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - The company, Jiexin International Resources, is focused on tungsten resource development in Kazakhstan, with its Bakuta tungsten mine having a resource volume of 107.5 million tons of tungsten ore and a grade of 0.211% [1] Group 2 - The Bakuta tungsten mine has a reserve of 68.4 million tons of tungsten ore with a grade of 0.206%, containing 140,800 tons of WO [1] - According to招商证券, the company's core asset, the Bakuta tungsten mine, is already in production, and there are expectations for future production increases [1] - The company is expected to benefit from rising tungsten prices, leading to a potential rapid growth in profits [1]
2025年7月中国钨品出口数量和出口金额分别为0.15万吨和0.7亿美元
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-04 01:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's tungsten exports, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in July 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2] - In July 2025, China's tungsten export volume reached 0.15 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 20% [1] - The export value for the same period was $0.7 million, which reflects a year-on-year growth of 24% [1] Group 2 - The listed companies in the tungsten industry include Zhongtung High-tech (000657), Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry (002378), Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842), Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549), and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778) [1] - The report titled "2025-2031 China Tungsten Mining Industry Market Panorama Research and Industry Demand Assessment" was published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services for investment decisions [2]
江西铜业股份早盘拉升逾8% 花旗对其开启正面催化剂观察 短期或受益美降息预期提振
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 01:48
Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper's stock surged over 8% following the announcement of its mid-year results for 2025, indicating positive market sentiment despite a decline in revenue [1] Financial Performance - Jiangxi Copper reported a revenue of approximately 256.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.97% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 4.451 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.78% [1] - Basic earnings per share were 1.29 yuan, with an interim dividend of 0.4 yuan per share [1] Market Analysis - Citigroup raised its target price for Jiangxi Copper's H-shares from 19.1 HKD to 27.9 HKD and for A-shares from 25 HKD to 33.8 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The bank initiated a 90-day positive catalyst observation for Jiangxi Copper, citing a reduction in China's copper cathode production and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. as potential short-term support for copper-related stocks [1] Industry Context - On August 28, Jiaxin International Resources was officially listed, with its Bakuta tungsten mine being the fourth largest WO mineral resource globally, possessing the largest designed tungsten production capacity in a single mine [1] - Jiangxi Copper holds a 31.24% stake in Jiaxin International Resources, which has begun to release production from the Bakuta tungsten mine [1]
【风口研报】硅光的产业爆发时刻已经到来,这家光芯片公司产品先发优势明确,下游客户信任度高,当前具备多个预期差
财联社· 2025-09-02 10:32
Group 1 - The industry of silicon photonics is experiencing a significant breakthrough, with a specific company having a clear first-mover advantage in its products and high trust from downstream customers, currently possessing multiple expectation discrepancies [1] - A company that successfully launched tungsten mining and resumed copper mining is expected to enhance profits, as it covers various metals including gold, silver, copper, tungsten, and molybdenum, with the upcoming peak season and expectations of interest rate cuts likely to strengthen industrial metal prices [1]
A股盘前播报 | 茅台集团增持贵州茅台(600519.SH)1亿元 工业母机高质量标准体系建设方案印发
智通财经网· 2025-09-02 00:24
Company Insights - Kweichow Moutai's controlling shareholder, Moutai Group, has initiated a share buyback of approximately 1 billion yuan, following a prior announcement to invest between 3 billion to 3.3 billion yuan for share repurchase, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [1] - Xpeng Motors reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with 37,709 units delivered in August, representing a year-on-year growth of 169%. NIO also saw a rise in deliveries, reaching 31,305 units, a 55.2% increase, marking a historical high [3] - Industrial Fulian has repurchased a total of 7.6974 million shares, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value [14] Industry Insights - The National Standardization Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have issued a plan for the construction of a high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines, aiming to establish a basic framework by 2026 [2] - The cryptocurrency market experienced volatility with the launch of the Trump family's "core token," WLFI, which saw a price drop of over 20% shortly after trading began, highlighting the growing influence of the Trump family in the crypto space [4] - Tungsten concentrate prices surged by 12,000 yuan in a single day due to a tightening supply situation, despite some new supply expected from overseas [11]