Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the tungsten price reached a historical high before a slight adjustment, while the rare earth market is experiencing a phase of weak supply and demand [4][7] - The report suggests monitoring specific companies such as Guangsheng Nonferrous, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others for potential investment opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Rare Earth - Recent price changes include a drop of 11.21% for praseodymium and neodymium oxide to 712,500 CNY/ton, and a decrease of 4.47% for dysprosium oxide to 1,390,000 CNY/ton [7][12] - Supply remains tight due to policy and supply-side constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies is weakening [7] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices decreased by 0.90% to 4,395 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices fell by 1.06% to 279,500 CNY/ton [18] - The market is currently in a phase of price stabilization and observation due to low inventory levels at smelters and reduced output from mines [7] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices fell by 4.30% to 1,001,000 CNY/ton, while ammonium paratungstate prices decreased by 1.98% to 1,485,000 CNY/ton [24] - The market is primarily focused on digesting existing high-priced inventory without significant new replenishment actions [7] Tin - SHFE tin prices dropped by 3.11% to 362,460 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices decreased by 6.47% to 44,850 USD/ton [24] - Supply is under pressure due to geopolitical issues affecting major tin mining areas, while demand remains stable from traditional electronics and emerging AI sectors [7] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell by 1.19% to 165,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices decreased by 2.03% to 144,500 CNY/ton [39] - The market is awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent improvements in export volumes noted [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach to seeking investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index has decreased by 15.08% over the past two weeks, ranking last among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, indicating significant market concerns regarding supply and demand dynamics [2][12]. - Precious metals have experienced a notable decline, with COMEX gold prices falling by 13.30% and COMEX silver prices dropping by 19.94% in the same period, reflecting pressures from inflation concerns and a strong dollar [20]. - The tungsten market shows strong upward momentum, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 11.44% over the past two weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic policy constraints [36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 15.08% from March 9 to March 20, 2026, with all sub-sectors, including small metals (-18.50%), precious metals (-12.52%), and industrial metals (-16.07%), showing declines [2][12]. Precious Metals - As of March 20, COMEX gold closed at $4,492.00 per ounce, down 13.30% over two weeks, while COMEX silver closed at $67.81 per ounce, down 19.94% [20]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and regulatory tightening on market liquidity, which has pressured precious metal prices [20]. Industrial Metals - LME copper prices were $12,021.50 per ton, down 6.14% over two weeks, while domestic copper prices averaged 95,470 yuan per ton, down 5.60% [30]. - The report anticipates a weak balance in copper prices due to macroeconomic pressures and cost support [30]. Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose to 1,023,000 yuan per ton, up 11.44% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 123.85% [36]. - The report notes that the tungsten market is influenced by global supply chain disruptions and domestic production constraints [36]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was 255.31, down 13.58% over two weeks, but up 17.64% year-to-date [45]. - The report indicates that demand from downstream sectors is slowing, impacting the rare earth market [45]. Energy Metals - The average price of electrolytic cobalt was 431,000 yuan per ton, down 0.12% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices averaged 149,000 yuan per ton, down 4.03% [54]. - The report highlights the cautious market sentiment regarding the electric vehicle sector and supply chain dynamics [54].

Macro Insights - February CPI year-on-year growth rebounded to 1.3%, significantly up from January's 0.2%, influenced by the later timing of the Spring Festival [4] - Core CPI accelerated, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, the highest since the pandemic began [5] - PPI continued its upward trend month-on-month, increasing by 0.4%, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.9% [5][6] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 jobs in February, leading traders to increase bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [9] - The manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 49.0%, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity compared to the previous month [8] - The domestic tungsten market saw a significant price increase, with black tungsten concentrate prices surpassing 900,000 CNY per ton, marking a 100.11% increase since the beginning of the year [10] North Exchange Market - The average daily trading volume on the North Exchange reached 23.69 billion CNY, a 28.8% increase week-on-week, indicating a recovery in market activity [12] - The North Exchange 50 index fell by 7.14%, with notable fluctuations in individual stocks, highlighting the market's volatility [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks with stable cash flows and continuous R&D investment, while avoiding speculative stocks without performance support [14] - It emphasizes a gradual investment strategy aligned with policy catalysts, particularly in high-end manufacturing, domestic substitution, and aerospace sectors [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][41] Core Insights - The tungsten industry continues to show strong market performance, with a cumulative increase of 35.91% in February, significantly outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 35.82 percentage points [5] - The valuation of the industry (TTM P/E ratio) has risen from 55.45x at the beginning of the month to 75.76x, currently at 97.52% of its historical percentile [5] - Domestic tungsten product prices have surged due to tight resource supply, with significant increases in both black and white tungsten concentrate prices [6][8] - The international tungsten prices have also risen, reflecting the upward trend in domestic prices [8] Monthly Performance Summary - In February, the domestic tungsten concentrate price for 65% black tungsten increased by 32.89% month-on-month to 684,500 CNY/ton, and by 375.35% year-on-year [8] - The price for 65% white tungsten rose by 32.92% month-on-month to 682,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 379.06% [8] - The ammonium paratungstate (88.5%) price increased by 32.63% month-on-month to 1,006,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 374.87% [8] - Tungsten powder prices also saw significant month-on-month increases, with prices for tungsten powder (≥99.7%, 2-10um) rising by 37.32% to 1,717.5 CNY/kg, and a year-on-year increase of 440.99% [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tungsten supply chain is experiencing a seasonal decline in production, exacerbating supply tightness, with domestic tungsten concentrate production dropping by 39.46% month-on-month in February [9] - The operating rate for tungsten concentrate production fell to 35.31%, below the previous year's levels during the Spring Festival [9] - Inventory levels across the tungsten supply chain are at historical lows, with significant reductions in stock for tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate, and tungsten powder [11] Profit Distribution and Market Outlook - The profit margins for tungsten concentrate are expanding due to resource scarcity and price increases, with simulated gross profit reaching 539,400 CNY/ton, a month-on-month growth of 50.71% [11] - The midstream sector is also seeing profit expansion, while the downstream sector faces pressure due to cost transmission issues [11] - Long-term, the tightening of tungsten supply due to various factors, including declining ore grades and stricter mining controls, is expected to support higher tungsten prices [11][38] - The report suggests that the first batch of tungsten mining control indicators for 2026 is expected to tighten, reinforcing the supply constraint logic [38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply constraints and downstream price increases are driving tungsten prices to new highs [4] - The rare earth market is experiencing tight supply, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide reaching new highs due to downstream restocking [6] - Molybdenum prices are rising due to post-holiday restocking demand, while tungsten prices are increasing due to supply reductions and downstream price adjustments [6] - Tin prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, particularly from key producing regions [6] - Antimony prices are showing signs of recovery, with expectations for improved export data to support further price increases [6] Summary by Category Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 4.71% to 890,000 CNY/ton, dysprosium by 9.83% to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and terbium by 1.56% to 6,525,000 CNY/ton [11][6] - Supply remains tight due to policy and supply-side constraints, with downstream magnetic material companies shifting from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by 6.48% to 4,435 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased by 5.42% to 282,000 CNY/ton [18][6] - The market is experiencing a decrease in liquidity due to reduced mine output and low inventory levels at smelters [6] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 13.13% to 784,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 13.66% to 1,165,000 CNY/ton [25][6] - Supply constraints from stricter mining regulations and reduced operational rates are pushing prices higher [6] Tin - SHFE tin prices surged by 24.04% to 453,240 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices increased by 18.89% to 57,425 USD/ton [31][6] - Supply chain concerns from geopolitical tensions in key producing regions are contributing to price volatility [6] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.82% to 167,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 2.08% to 147,500 CNY/ton [46][6] - The market is awaiting signals of export recovery to support further price increases [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market concluded February with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4162.88 points, up 0.39%, marking a monthly increase of 1.09% and achieving three consecutive monthly gains [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.04% [2] - Trading activity remained robust post-Spring Festival, with the total trading volume exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days, and a daily trading volume of approximately 2.51 trillion yuan on February 27 [2] Price Increase Themes - Price increase themes emerged as the core investment logic throughout February, with the chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors showing significant strength [3] - The chemical sector experienced rapid internal rotation, with notable gains in dye and phosphate chemical segments, such as a 32% increase for Chuyuan Co. and a 58% increase for Jinzhengda [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector was highlighted by a 78% increase in Zhangyuan Tungsten's stock, driven by strict supply-side controls and recovering demand [3][4] Company Highlights - YN Holdings saw a remarkable monthly increase of 115%, driven by its dual focus on computing power and electricity integration [5] - Following an announcement on February 11 regarding its acquisition of Zhengzhou Heying Data Co., YN Holdings' stock surged from 6.85 yuan to 13.34 yuan, nearly doubling in value [5] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 305 million to 391 million yuan by 2025, attributed to declining power generation costs and improved operational performance [6] Institutional Insights - Institutions believe that the price increase logic will continue to be significant in March, with price increases serving as a direct signal of performance improvement and economic recovery [7] - The market is expected to validate price increase signals in March and April, with a broader range of sectors likely to experience price increases [7] - East Wu Securities suggests that sectors related to oil and gas, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and public utilities may become the main focus, alongside technology hardware related to AI narratives [8]

Group 1 - The small metals sector in A-shares continues to rise, with key subcategories such as tungsten, germanium, rare earths, and indium showing strong performance, as all 95 stocks in the sector increased in value [1] - The U.S. White House plans to use an AI model developed by the Department of Defense to establish reference prices for global critical mineral trade, initially covering germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten, signaling a potential restructuring of the global pricing system for critical minerals [1] - Supply constraints are a core driver of the recent strength in small metals, with major producing countries tightening resource controls, leading to a noticeable slowdown in the supply growth of tungsten, antimony, germanium, and gallium [1] Group 2 - The supply of tungsten remains tight, with black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a historical high of 777,500 yuan per ton, up 3.04% from the previous trading day, while indium and germanium also face limited supply due to concentrated global production [2] - The demand for small metals is experiencing rigid growth, driven by emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and photovoltaic wind power, which further opens up upward price potential for small metals [2] - Multiple institutions have identified small metals as a key allocation direction for 2026, citing their cyclical elasticity and growth attributes, with strong profitability certainty amid economic recovery and industrial upgrades [2] Group 3 - According to Western Securities, the small metals sector is expected to encounter new opportunities by 2026 due to the rising demand from the AI industry, with strong resonance from supply-side policy constraints and demand-side recovery [3]

Market Overview - On February 27, major A-share indices collectively declined in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.17%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68%, and ChiNext Index down 1.46% [1][9] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15,966 billion CNY, a decrease of 532 billion CNY compared to the previous day [1][9] - Over 2,300 stocks in the market experienced gains [1][9] Company Highlights - YN Holdings (豫能控股) saw its stock price surge, hitting the daily limit after opening, and achieved a total of seven consecutive trading days of limit-up, with the price rising from 6.85 CNY to 13.34 CNY, nearly doubling in value [2][10] - The company announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in Zhengzhou Heying Data Co., which specializes in large-scale data center operations, with an IT capacity exceeding 1GW [12][4] - The investment amount for this acquisition is expected to be no more than 1.4 billion CNY, with a stake of up to 49% [4][12] Industry Trends - The tungsten sector experienced a significant rally, with companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten (章源钨业) achieving five limit-up days in seven trading sessions [5][14] - Tungsten prices have been rising, with black tungsten concentrate and white tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 6,000 CNY per ton, and ammonium paratungstate (APT) increasing by 10,000 CNY per ton compared to the previous month [7][16] - As of February 26, tungsten powder prices reached 1,850 CNY per kilogram, up 71.3% since the beginning of the year, while the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate rose by 65.2% [7][16]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic tungsten market in China has strengthened post-holiday, with leading companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten raising long-term prices, reinforcing bullish market expectations and driving the average price of black tungsten concentrate to a record high of 733,500 yuan per standard ton on February 25, marking a year-to-date increase of 61.74% [3] Group 1: Price Movements - The average price of black tungsten concentrate reached a record high of 733,500 yuan per standard ton, with a year-to-date increase of 61.74% [3] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices also rose, recording a year-to-date increase of 61.94% [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - European tungsten market is experiencing a shortage of downstream inventory, leading to strong price increases during the Spring Festival holiday, contributing to a global price rise in tungsten [3] - Recent proposals from U.S. lawmakers to establish a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" may elevate tungsten's priority in overseas strategic stockpiling efforts [3] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - China has announced measures to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan, which may impact the tungsten supply chain [3] - U.S. President Trump has proposed increasing the military budget to $1.5 trillion for the fiscal year 2027, potentially sustaining high stockpiling levels overseas and further supporting price increases [3]

Group 1 - The tungsten index has experienced a significant surge, with companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten seeing substantial stock price increases, including Zhangyuan Tungsten achieving five consecutive trading limits in seven days [1] - Zhangyuan Tungsten has raised its long-term procurement prices for February 2026, with 55% black tungsten concentrate priced at 730,000 yuan per standard ton, and 55% white tungsten concentrate at 729,000 yuan per standard ton, reflecting an increase from the previous month [2] - The price of tungsten powder has skyrocketed nearly fivefold over the past year, reaching 1,800 yuan per kilogram, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 41.7% [3] Group 2 - The global tungsten supply and demand imbalance has intensified since 2025, driven by policy controls and surging demand, leading to record-high prices for tungsten powder, cobalt powder, and tungsten carbide powder [3] - Companies such as Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Jiaxin International Resources are identified as relevant players benefiting from the rising prices in the tungsten market [3]