本周核心关注二：铜冶炼"反内卷"也有望提速 行业周报 | 有色金属 供给扰动频发，金属板块有望实现多重共振 有色金属行业周报（2025.09.22-2025.09.28） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：全球第二大铜矿 Grasberg 遭遇矿难停产，供给担忧加剧 全球第二大铜矿 Grasberg 矿山发生泥石流事故，引发供应链担忧，目前公 司已启动不可抗力条款。受事故影响，Freeport 将第三季度合并销售预期较 7 月份预估下调约 4%的铜产量和约 6%的黄金产量。同时预计 25Q4 铜和黄 金的销售额将微不足道。另外 Freeport 预计最早要到 2027 年才能恢复事故 前的生产水平，2026 年铜金产量较此前预期下降约 35%，其中铜产量指引 从 77 万吨下调至约 50 万吨，减少约 27 万吨供应。 9 月 24 日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河 北雄安新区召开。铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的 问题是此次会议中代表反馈最集中的问题，也是行业当下最突出的问题。中 国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结讲话中强调，铜冶炼行 业"内卷式"竞争对行业影 ...

本文来自微信公众号：经济观察报 （ID：eeo-com-cn），作者：王雅洁，题图来自：视觉中国 9月22日，江西赣州，一家钨矿的销售总监王磊挂断了欧洲买家加价三成求购黑钨精矿的电话。 他随即对团队成员表示，月度现货投放量要控制在200吨以内。 王磊手握的钨矿山出货单显示，9月下半月黑钨精矿发货量比上月同期减少30%，库存周转天数从15天 延长至45天。 这种"惜售"策略背后，是钨产业链上游企业面对历史新高钨价的自信抉择。 2025年以来，钨价一路狂飙。 从8月21日至今，钨价几乎每天都在快速上涨。 9月24日数据显示，欧洲APT（仲钨酸铵，钨精矿经过冶炼加工后的一种重要中间产品，欧洲APT价格 是国际主流钨价指标）价格已飙升至580美元/吨度至645美元/吨度（鹿特丹到岸价），同比上涨超 30%。 王磊说："现在不是我们在卖矿，是矿在'挑'客户。" 他对经济观察报表示，9月上旬，曾有国内冶炼厂负责人亲自带队来矿区驻守三天，只为争取100吨钨精 矿的优先采购权。 当上游开始"掌控"游戏规则，中游却逐渐面临成本困局。 面对上游矿企的"惜售挺价"，江西某冶炼厂厂长李建国形容自己所在的中游企业像"夹心饼干"。他向经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, tungsten prices have surged dramatically, with upstream companies gaining significant control over the market dynamics, while midstream companies face increasing cost pressures [1][4][19]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Tungsten prices have increased by over 50% from the low points at the beginning of the year, with some products seeing nearly 100% annual price increases [5][12]. - As of September 24, European APT prices have risen to between $580 and $645 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 30% [6]. - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with upstream companies adopting a "reluctant selling" strategy, controlling the supply to maintain high prices [3][4][14]. Group 2: Upstream and Midstream Challenges - Upstream companies are experiencing a "golden era" due to fundamental shifts in supply and demand, with a reported 60% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for midstream companies [8][24]. - A significant reduction in tungsten concentrate mining quotas has exacerbated the supply shortage, with the first batch of quotas for 2025 set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% year-on-year [8][15]. - Midstream companies are struggling with profit margins, as the cost of tungsten concentrate has risen significantly while the selling price of APT has not kept pace [24][25]. Group 3: International Trade and Policy Implications - China's tungsten exports have decreased by 34.56% in the first seven months of 2025, while imports surged by 45.57%, indicating a shift in the global tungsten trade landscape [15][26]. - Regulatory discussions are underway regarding "flexible mining quotas" to balance supply and environmental concerns, although there are fears this may reduce resource tax revenues [9][38]. Group 4: Technological Innovations and Future Outlook - The introduction of efficient tungsten waste recycling technologies could potentially reduce the demand for primary tungsten by up to 30% if scaled effectively [41][42]. - The market is approaching a critical point, with potential price corrections anticipated as downstream companies struggle with rising costs and reduced orders from clients [36][39].

格隆汇9月25日｜经济观察网文章称，欧洲买家加价三成向中国卖家求购黑钨精矿而不可得，这种"惜 售"策略背后，是钨产业链上游企业面对历史新高钨价的自信抉择。2025年以来，钨价一路狂飙。国内 主要钨产品年内均值较年初低点普遍上涨超过50%，部分产品价格年度累计涨幅已达近100%。 文章提 到，9月24日数据显示，欧洲APT(仲钨酸铵，钨精矿经过冶炼加工后的一种重要中间产品，欧洲APT价 格是国际主流钨价指标)价格已飙升至580美元/吨度-645美元/吨度(鹿特丹到岸价)，同比上涨超30%。现 在国内APT社会库存(社会库存是钨市场供需关系的重要体现，它包括经销商、贸易商、下游企业和仓 储等环节的库存)已降至200吨以下(正常水平为600吨)，硬质合金企业原料库存仅剩12天(安全线30天)。 业内人士称这不是周期性涨价，而是战略资源价值的系统性重估。 ...

他随即对团队成员表示，月度现货投放量要控制在200吨以内。 经济观察报记者王雅洁 9月22日，江西赣州，一家钨矿的销售总监王磊挂断了欧洲买家加价三成求购黑钨精矿的电话。 王磊手握的钨矿山出货单显示，9月下半月黑钨精矿发货量比上月同期减少30%，库存周转天数从15天 延长至45天。 这种"惜售"策略背后，是钨产业链上游企业面对历史新高钨价的自信抉择。 2025年以来，钨价一路狂飙。 面对上游矿企的"惜售挺价"，江西某冶炼厂厂长李建国形容自己所在的中游企业像"夹心饼干"。他向经 济观察报展示的账本显示，2025年8月该企业钨精矿采购成本同比飙涨60%，而产出的仲钨酸铵售价涨 幅仅25%。 王磊认为，上游矿企的"黄金时代"源于供需基本面的根本转变。这种供需错配正在钨市场引发连锁反 应。 2025年，首批钨精矿开采总量指标降至5.8万吨，同比缩减6.45%，而光伏钨丝需求爆发式增长让供需缺 口持续扩大。 为了应对种种供需矛盾，一名监管部门的人士透露，相关部门正在研讨钨矿"弹性开采指标"的可行性方 案，考虑对采用绿色开采技术的矿企给予5%的配额上浮，以期在保供与环保之间取得平衡。 国内主要钨产品年内均值较年初低点普遍上 ...

Group 1: Rare Earths - Recent price movements show a 4.18% decrease in praseodymium and neodymium oxide to 572,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide increased by 0.62% to 1,625,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide rose by 1.41% to 7,175,000 CNY/ton [1][2] - The U.S. Department of Defense has agreed to invest $400 million in MPMaterials, becoming its largest shareholder, and set a procurement price of $110 per kilogram for the two most commonly used rare earths, neodymium and praseodymium [1][2] - MPMaterials has announced a $500 million partnership with Apple to supply critical raw materials for its electronic products [1][2] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 0.22% to 4,515 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices decreased by 0.69% to 287,500 CNY/ton [3] - Supply signals indicate a gradual contraction in molybdenum concentrate, while demand from steel mills is increasing, leading to a short-term strong price fluctuation [3] - Recommended companies to watch include Jinduicheng Molybdenum [3] Group 3: Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 13.60% to 284,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.16% to 415,000 CNY/ton [4] - Supply constraints due to reduced mining quotas and stable domestic demand are supporting tungsten prices [4] - Companies to monitor include China Tungsten and Hightech Materials, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten [4] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices on SHFE fell by 1.69% to 274,000 CNY/ton, and LME tin decreased by 2.14% to $34,800/ton [5] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining sector and weak demand from electronics and home appliances are affecting the market [5] - Companies to focus on include Yunnan Tin Company, Huaxi Group, and Xinyi Silver Tin [5] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony ingot prices remained stable at 182,500 CNY/ton, while antimony concentrate prices held at 160,000 CNY/ton [6] - Supply tightness is driven by a halt in overseas mineral imports and low operating rates in smelting plants [6] - Anticipated recovery in export demand starting in October may boost marginal demand [6] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant breakthroughs in welding technology recognized internationally [7] - CFS has raised $863 million in funding, planning to deploy a nuclear fusion reactor in Japan by the late 2030s or early 2040s [7] - Companies to watch in this sector include Antai Technology, SRE New Materials, and West Superconducting [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that rare earths are currently focused on inventory digestion, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide experiencing a decline of 4.18% to 572,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium oxides have seen slight increases [5][12] - The report notes that the supply side for tungsten is tightening, leading to new price highs, with black tungsten concentrate prices rising by 13.60% to 284,000 CNY/ton [5][33] - Molybdenum prices are expected to remain strong due to increased demand from steel mills, with molybdenum concentrate prices rising by 0.22% to 4,515 CNY/ton [5][24] - Tin prices are under pressure due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with SHFE tin prices down 1.69% to 274,000 CNY/ton [5][41] - Antimony prices are stable, with expectations for demand recovery in October, maintaining antimony ingot prices at 182,500 CNY/ton [5][52] - The report emphasizes the accelerating commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion materials, indicating significant opportunities for upstream materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 4.18% drop in praseodymium and neodymium oxide to 572,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium oxides have increased slightly [5][12] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have increased by 0.22% to 4,515 CNY/ton, with strong demand from steel mills [5][24] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices have surged by 13.60% to 284,000 CNY/ton due to supply constraints [5][33] Tin - SHFE tin prices have decreased by 1.69% to 274,000 CNY/ton, reflecting weak supply and demand [5][41] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices remain stable at 182,500 CNY/ton, with expectations for demand recovery in October [5][52] Nuclear Fusion Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, presenting significant opportunities for upstream materials [5][6]

Group 1 - The price of black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) has increased by 101.4% to 288,000 yuan/ton, while ammonium paratungstate (APT) price has risen by 98.1% to 418,000 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has set a total control index for tungsten mining of 58,000 tons for the first batch in 2025, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the first batch in 2024, representing a decline of over 6% [1] - Demand for tungsten products has significantly increased due to the recovery of the manufacturing sector, particularly in automotive, aerospace, and machinery processing industries [1] Group 2 - Companies like Changyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32.27%, with tungsten powder sales rising by 43.68% to 2,657.83 tons [1] - The company has six mining rights and ten exploration rights, enhancing its resource reserve capabilities through collaboration with geological experts [2] - High tungsten prices may lead upstream mining companies to seek potential resource development, while also prompting downstream companies to accelerate the search for alternative materials [2] Group 3 - The development cycle for tungsten mining is long and capital-intensive, making it difficult to quickly increase production, suggesting that tungsten prices may still have room for growth [3] - The value of tungsten resources is being re-evaluated in the market, necessitating all stakeholders, including resource, processing, and end-use companies, to adapt to market changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown strong performance recently, with significant price increases across various segments, driven by market dynamics and expectations of monetary policy changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 8.59% over the two-week period from August 18 to August 29, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 5th among 31 first-level industries [1][2]. - Among sub-sectors, small metals led the gains with a 23.81% increase, followed by metal new materials (7.69%), precious metals (6.76%), industrial metals (5.71%), and energy metals (4.41%) [1][2]. Group 2: Metal Prices - As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516 per ounce, up 3.97% over the two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $40.75 per ounce, up 7.18% [3]. - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price increased by 24.62% to 251,000 CNY per ton; LME tin price rose by 3.99% to $34,950 per ton [3]. - The light rare earth price index increased by 6.39%, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.96% to 597,500 CNY per ton [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September have strengthened metal prices, with a notable increase in the non-ferrous ETF fund by 4.46% on August 25 [4]. - The weakening dollar has enhanced the financial attributes of metals like copper and gold, contributing to the overall price increase [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on opportunities in precious metals and industrial metals such as copper and aluminum [6].

Group 1: Rare Earths - In July, the export volume of rare earth permanent magnets improved month-on-month, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide entering an upward channel, increasing by 7.17% to 597,500 CNY/ton [2][3] - The Pentagon agreed to invest 400 million USD to purchase preferred shares of MPMaterials, becoming its largest shareholder, and set a procurement price of 110 USD per kilogram for the two most commonly used rare earths, neodymium and praseodymium [2] - MPMaterials announced a 500 million USD partnership with Apple to supply key raw materials for its electronic products [2] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 3.21% to 45,050 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices rose by 4.51% to 289,500 CNY/ton [3] - Supply signals indicate a gradual contraction in molybdenum concentrate, while demand from steel mills continues to stimulate inventory replenishment [3] Group 3: Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices surged by 25.00% to 250,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 23.33% to 370,000 CNY/ton [3] - The reduction in tungsten mining quotas and stable domestic demand are supporting price increases [3] Group 4: Tin - SHFE tin prices rose by 4.43% to 278,700 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices increased by 5.29% to 35,500 USD/ton [4] - Supply is tight due to low operating rates of refining tin smelters in Yunnan, while demand remains subdued as high tin prices lead to low restocking intentions in the electronics and home appliance sectors [4] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony ingot prices remained stable at 182,500 CNY/ton, while antimony concentrate prices held steady at 160,000 CNY/metal ton [4] - Domestic antimony raw materials are tight due to a halt in overseas mining, and the low operating rate of antimony smelters is expected to keep production low [4] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant progress in upstream materials benefiting from ongoing technological breakthroughs [4] - The successful completion of the high-temperature lithium-lead comprehensive experimental platform and the approval of a conditional use permit for the first nuclear fusion power plant mark key advancements in the industry [4]