对于后市，机构普遍持乐观态度。中信建投证券金属和金属新材料团队认为，在国内钨精矿第一批配额 缩减，第二批配额下放时间推迟的情况下，供给端极为短缺，钨产业链价格持续推涨。短期来看，第二 批配额量级是钨价方向的决定因素。 （原标题：年内涨超60%！钨价今日再度上调，相关概念股却集体回调） 8月26日，国内钨品市场再度迎来大涨。据中钨在线数据，仲钨酸铵（APT）报价达到35万元/吨，较昨 日上涨1万元/吨，较年初涨65.9%。黑钨精矿（≥65%）报23.3万元/标吨，白钨精矿（≥65%）报23.2万 元/标吨，均较昨日价格上涨7000元/吨，较年初涨超60%。 然而与之形成鲜明对比的是，二级市场上钨概念股却迎来集体回调。截至午盘收盘，钨指数 （884282.TI）大跌3.7%，创下8月以来最大跌幅，成分股翔鹭钨业（002842.SZ）大跌6.92%、厦门钨业 （600549.SH）、章源钨业（002378.SZ）跌超3%，中钨高新（000657.SZ）跌0.42%。 这一背离现象发生在钨价持续走强的背景下。回溯本轮涨势，自4月中下旬起，白钨精矿、黑钨精矿便 以每日近千元的幅度"小步快跑"，5月末突破17万元/吨，7 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with operating income of 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -290 million yuan, a decrease of 180 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The company plans to change its name to "Jiangxi Jiangtu Rare and Precious Equipment Co., Ltd." and its stock abbreviation to "Jiangtu Equipment" following a major asset restructuring and change in controlling shareholder [2] - The major asset restructuring was completed in August 2025, where the company divested its core coal business and acquired a 57% stake in Jinhui Magnetic Selection, with profit commitments for the next three years [2] Group 2 - The tungsten business is projected to have a value exceeding 20 billion yuan, with estimated annual net profit contributions of approximately 750 million yuan from tungsten concentrate and smelting processing [3][4] - The company holds tungsten resources of 496,600 tons, with an estimated annual revenue of about 2.17 billion yuan from tungsten concentrate sales, and a net profit of around 700 million yuan after costs and taxes [2][3] - The tantalum, niobium, and lithium business is estimated to have a market value of about 10 billion yuan, with projected net profits of approximately 300 million yuan based on historical profit margins [4] Group 3 - The change in controlling shareholder to Jiangtu Holdings is expected to enhance the company's ability to integrate non-coal resources and improve financial performance [4] - The company has adjusted its profit expectations for 2025-2027, forecasting net profits of -210 million yuan, -100 million yuan, and -43 million yuan respectively, due to declining coking coal prices [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the export improvement has driven the continuous rise in praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices, with a recent increase of 4.99% to 557,500 CNY/ton. Meanwhile, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices have decreased by 1.83% and 1.90%, respectively [6][13] - The report emphasizes the strong demand for rare earths, particularly in the context of the U.S. Department of Defense's investment in MP Materials and its collaboration with Apple, which is expected to support the supply of key raw materials for electronic products [6] - The report suggests that the small metals sector is experiencing a high level of activity and potential growth, particularly in the context of controlled nuclear fusion materials, which are expected to benefit from ongoing technological breakthroughs and commercialization efforts [7] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - In the last two weeks, praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 4.99% to 557,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium oxide prices decreased by 1.83% to 1.61 million CNY/ton and by 1.90% to 6.975 million CNY/ton, respectively [6][13] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by 1.87% to 4,365 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased by 1.28% to 277,000 CNY/ton [25] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 3.63% to 200,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 5.26% to 300,000 CNY/ton [33] Tin - SHFE tin prices rose by 0.71% to 266,800 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices increased by 1.70% to 33,750 USD/ton [48] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 2.67% to 182,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices fell by 1.54% to 16,000 CNY/ton [50] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The report notes that the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant advancements in technology and potential benefits for upstream materials [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a strong operational trend due to macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions [1][2][3] - The U.S. and China have agreed to pause tariff increases for 90 days, which may positively impact trade relations [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data has increased expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although PPI data suggests inflation may rise in the coming months [2][3] - The U.S. has expanded the range of steel and aluminum import tariffs, affecting hundreds of products [3] - Zambia's copper production has declined, raising concerns about meeting the government's annual production target of 1 million tons [5][19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.62%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92 percentage points [9] - Key stocks that performed well include Bowei Alloy (+39.60%) and Jintian Co. (+34.32%) [9] 2. Key Focus & Metal Prices & Inventory Changes 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices on LME were $9,760/ton, down 0.08% week-on-week, while SHFE prices were ¥79,060/ton, up 0.73% [21][23] - Aluminum prices on LME were $2,603/ton, down 0.46%, and SHFE prices were ¥20,770/ton, up 0.41% [21][23] 2.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices were $3,381.70/oz, down 2.21%, while SHFE gold prices were ¥775.80/g, down 1.52% [35][36] 2.3 Energy Metals - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose to ¥82,000/ton, up 14.69% week-on-week [40][41] 2.4 Strategic Metals - Prices for praseodymium oxide reached ¥568,100/kg, up 5.46% week-on-week [44] 3. Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining and Western Mining are recommended due to supply constraints and strong price support [54][56] - In precious metals, companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold are favored due to ongoing U.S. tariff policies and debt issues [54] - Strategic metals like tungsten and antimony are expected to see valuation reconstruction opportunities, with recommendations for companies like Bowei Alloy [55]

Core Insights - The global tungsten market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with domestic black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a three-year high of approximately 25,600 USD/ton, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [1] - Jiaxin International Resource Investment Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the listing hearing on August 11, 2025, with CICC as the sole sponsor, positioning itself to capitalize on the favorable market conditions [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiaxin International's Bakuta tungsten mine is recognized as the largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of WO3 resources globally, with a planned annual mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore starting from April 2025 [1] - The estimated mineral resource of the Bakuta tungsten mine is approximately 107.5 million tons, containing 227.3 thousand tons of WO3, with a credible ore reserve of 68.4 million tons [2][3] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from scarce resources and low costs, creating a competitive moat, with the Bakuta tungsten mine's resources being critical in a market where China accounts for 80% of global tungsten production [3] - The Bakuta mine's second-phase development is included in Kazakhstan's strategic mineral list, with local government support in terms of tax incentives and infrastructure [3] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Jiaxin International's unique shareholder background, including Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction, provides synergistic advantages across the entire industry chain, reducing sales risks and logistics costs by 15%-20% [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the current strong supply-demand dynamics in the tungsten market, with a planned 60% of its fundraising allocated to the second phase of the Bakuta project [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected increase in tungsten consumption driven by sectors such as renewable energy and military applications, leading to a forecasted demand of 15.11 million tons by 2028 [6] - The company is poised to capitalize on the rising tungsten prices, which are anticipated to reach historical highs due to tightening supply and increasing demand from both domestic and international markets [7] Group 5: Future Prospects - Jiaxin International's story is characterized by the race between resource endowment and commercial realization, with the potential for cash flow and valuation re-rating if commercialization proceeds smoothly [8] - The company is expected to become a significant player in the international tungsten market, leveraging its strategic resource acquisition and strong partnerships to navigate industry fluctuations [10]

Group 1 - The global tungsten market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with domestic black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a three-year high of approximately 25,600 USD/ton, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The Bakuta tungsten mine, owned by Jiaxin International, is recognized as the largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of WO₃ resources globally, with a planned annual mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore starting from April 2025 [1][2] - The global tungsten supply is highly concentrated, with China accounting for 80% of production, prompting Europe and the US to seek diversified sources, which Jiaxin International's overseas assets can fulfill [3] Group 2 - Jiaxin International's core competitive advantage lies in its resource endowment, with an estimated mineral resource of approximately 107 million tons containing 0.211% WO₃, translating to about 227,300 tons of WO₃ [2][3] - The company benefits from strong support from state-owned enterprises, with Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction providing synergies in upstream smelting and infrastructure, respectively, reducing logistics costs by 15%-20% [4] - The company plans to allocate 60% of its fundraising for the second phase of the Bakuta project, aiming to increase its annual mining and processing capacity to 4.95 million tons by 2027 [5] Group 3 - The global tungsten market is characterized by strong supply and demand, with a projected increase in tungsten consumption driven by sectors such as renewable energy and military applications [5][6] - The global tungsten supply has been tightening, with a significant gap between production and consumption, indicating a strong demand for tungsten resources [6][9] - Jiaxin International's strategic positioning and resource development are expected to enhance its capital strength and operational resilience, making it a key player in the international tungsten market [11]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The lithium carbonate price increased by 0.91% to 72,000 CNY/ton as of August 8, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the industry that may be difficult to resolve [6][42] - Nickel prices rose, with LME nickel closing at 212,232 USD/ton, up 1.51% from August 1, 2025, while domestic nickel prices also increased by 1.05% to 121,000 CNY/ton [21][24] - Cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt down 1.48% to 266,000 CNY/ton, while cobalt oxide rose by 2.54% to 203.50 CNY/kg [25][30] - Antimony prices decreased, with antimony ingot averaging 185,000 CNY/ton, down 1.33% from July 31, 2025, amid tight supply conditions [31][35] - The nickel industry faces potential supply disruptions due to the suspension of production lines by Chinese mining giant Tsingshan in Indonesia, which may impact local nickel mining and support nickel prices [12][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Updates - Nickel prices increased, with LME nickel at 212,232 USD/ton and domestic nickel at 121,000 CNY/ton, while supply remains stable despite weather conditions [21][24] - Cobalt prices fluctuated, with electrolytic cobalt down and cobalt oxide up, influenced by raw material shortages from the Democratic Republic of Congo [25][30] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices fell, with domestic antimony ingot at 185,000 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight and production is limited due to many manufacturers being offline [31][35] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices rose to 72,000 CNY/ton, with high inventory levels and slow de-stocking, indicating ongoing supply challenges [6][42] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market remains stable, with domestic production indicators not showing significant growth, and the U.S. government is working to rebuild its rare earth supply chain [15][42] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices increased, with LME tin at 33,900 USD/ton, as supply from Myanmar remains constrained due to production issues [9][15] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices rose slightly, with white tungsten at 193,500 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight due to reduced mining quotas [10][11] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics in lithium supply [42]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the long-term quotes from major tungsten manufacturers have significantly increased, suggesting a continued upward trend in tungsten prices due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][2]. Price Trends - As of August 5, the prices for black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten carbide powder have risen by 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively compared to early July, with current prices at 194,500 CNY/ton, 285,000 CNY/ton, and 422,500 CNY/ton [2]. - The long-term quotes for major manufacturers in early August include: Xiamen Tungsten Industry at 279,500 CNY/ton for APT, Zhangyuan Tungsten at 192,500 CNY/ton for black tungsten concentrate and 283,000 CNY/ton for APT, and Jiangxi Tungsten Group at 194,000 CNY/ton for black tungsten concentrate [2]. Market Dynamics - The current strong performance of tungsten prices is driven by three factors: the manufacturing sector is at a cyclical low, inventory levels among industries and traders are low, and external tungsten prices have been rising since June, reflecting a recovery in exports [3]. - The price gap between domestic and international tungsten prices has reached historical highs, indicating strong demand for domestic products as external markets recover [3]. Supply Situation - The long-term quotes from major manufacturers are close to market price announcements, indicating that the tight supply situation persists [4]. - The Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan has resumed normal shipments since May, with an average monthly output of around 800 tons. However, the domestic tungsten price remains strong, suggesting that local demand and supply constraints have effectively mitigated any potential market disruption from this new supply [5]. Investment Recommendations - Companies positioned at both ends of the tungsten industry chain are expected to benefit from the rising tungsten prices. Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech (000657.SZ) and Anyuan Coal Industry (600397.SH), with related stocks being Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549.SH), Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ), and Xianglu Tungsten (002842.SZ) [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies involved in the tungsten industry, specifically recommending Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tight supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases observed in various tungsten products as of early August [1][2]. - The report identifies three main reasons for the strong performance of tungsten prices: the manufacturing sector is at a cyclical bottom, low inventory levels prompting restocking, and a recovery in export demand since June [2][3]. - The long-term outlook for tungsten prices remains positive due to persistent supply constraints and the scarcity of resources, which is likely to elevate the price center [4]. Summary by Sections Market Prices - As of August 5, 2023, black tungsten concentrate prices reached 194,500 CNY/ton, up 12% from early July; APT prices were 285,000 CNY/ton, up 13%; and tungsten carbide powder prices were 422,500 CNY/ton, up 14% [1]. Long-term Quotes - Major companies have set long-term quotes close to market prices, indicating ongoing raw material shortages. For instance, Xiamen Tungsten's APT quote was 279,500 CNY/ton, while Zhangyuan Tungsten's black tungsten concentrate was quoted at 192,500 CNY/ton [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic tungsten price remains strong despite the normal output from the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, which has a capacity of nearly 10,000 tons of tungsten concentrate per year. The market has absorbed this supply increase without significant price drops [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that short-term price elasticity will be driven by restocking and export recovery, while long-term supply issues will support higher tungsten prices. Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry, with related stocks being Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten [4].

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing a reduction in mining quotas, with the first batch of quotas for 2024 down by 6.5% year-on-year, leading to an increase in black tungsten concentrate prices, which approached 200,000 yuan/ton by the end of July, reflecting a rise of over 30% since the beginning of the year [1][2] - China's tungsten consumption is projected to be around 70,000 tons in 2024, with mining supply at 60,000 tons and the remainder sourced from recycling [1][2] - Hard alloys account for nearly 60% of tungsten consumption, while tungsten materials (including photovoltaic tungsten wire) make up 23% [1][2] Price Trends - Since 2020, tungsten prices have shown a gradual upward trend, with significant increases following the announcement of the first batch of quotas each year [4] - The highest operating rate in five years was recorded in June, indicating resilient demand [4] Global and Domestic Supply - Global tungsten resources are estimated at 4.6 million tons, with China holding 52% of the reserves and accounting for 83% of the production, primarily concentrated in Jiangxi and Hunan provinces [5] - China has implemented total control over tungsten mining since 2002, with the first batch of quotas for 2025 also down by 6.5% year-on-year [6] Future Supply Expectations - Domestic projects like Dahuatang and Zhuxi are expected to add approximately 13,000 tons of tungsten supply by 2030, while overseas projects in Kazakhstan and Australia are anticipated to contribute an additional 10,000 tons [7] Recycling and Cost Advantages - The proportion of recycled tungsten in China is currently low but offers cost advantages, with a shorter production cycle and lower manufacturing costs compared to primary tungsten [8] Import and Export Dynamics - Despite producing 80% to 90% of global tungsten concentrate, China still imports about 10,000 tons annually, with downstream products being exported after powder metallurgy [9] Demand Concentration and Trends - Tungsten demand is primarily concentrated in four sectors: special steel, chemicals, tungsten materials, and hard alloys, with significant growth in hard alloys and tungsten materials expected [10][11] - The hard alloy sector has seen production increase from 23,000 tons in 2015 to 60,000 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [13] Impact of Major Projects - The Yashan project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly increase tungsten demand over the next decade due to extensive use of tungsten tools and equipment [12] Technological Advancements - The implementation of nuclear fusion technology, expected around 2040, could dramatically increase global tungsten demand, with a single 1GW fusion reactor requiring 29,000 tons of tungsten over its 40-year lifespan [17] Market Dynamics - The domestic supply-demand balance indicates a growing gap, with overall consumption projected to rise from 60,000 tons in 2024 to over 70,000 tons by 2027 [18] Key Companies in the A-Share Market - Five key companies in the A-share market are involved in tungsten: Xiamen Property, Zhonggao New, Zhangyuan Property, Xiaolu Property, and Anyuan Meiyu, with Zhonggao New and Zhangyuan Property focusing solely on tungsten business [19][20]