对于后市，机构普遍持乐观态度。中信建投证券金属和金属新材料团队认为，在国内钨精矿第一批配额 缩减，第二批配额下放时间推迟的情况下，供给端极为短缺，钨产业链价格持续推涨。短期来看，第二 批配额量级是钨价方向的决定因素。 （原标题：年内涨超60%！钨价今日再度上调，相关概念股却集体回调） 8月26日，国内钨品市场再度迎来大涨。据中钨在线数据，仲钨酸铵（APT）报价达到35万元/吨，较昨 日上涨1万元/吨，较年初涨65.9%。黑钨精矿（≥65%）报23.3万元/标吨，白钨精矿（≥65%）报23.2万 元/标吨，均较昨日价格上涨7000元/吨，较年初涨超60%。 然而与之形成鲜明对比的是，二级市场上钨概念股却迎来集体回调。截至午盘收盘，钨指数 （884282.TI）大跌3.7%，创下8月以来最大跌幅，成分股翔鹭钨业（002842.SZ）大跌6.92%、厦门钨业 （600549.SH）、章源钨业（002378.SZ）跌超3%，中钨高新（000657.SZ）跌0.42%。 这一背离现象发生在钨价持续走强的背景下。回溯本轮涨势，自4月中下旬起，白钨精矿、黑钨精矿便 以每日近千元的幅度"小步快跑"，5月末突破17万元/吨，7 ...

专家会议：钨行业供需及后市展望 20250822 摘要 全球钨消费量约为每年 11 万吨纯钨，中国占比 60%，且在储量、消费、 贸易和供应方面均居世界首位，对全球钨市场具有重要影响。 2025 年初以来，钨精矿、APT 及钨粉价格上涨约 50%，达历史最高涨 幅，主要受战略价值回归预期驱动，而非基本面供需关系。 中国对钨品出口管控新规（2025 年 2 月 4 日）直接导致国际 APT 价格 飙升，国内外价差显著，表明中国政策变动对全球市场有重大影响。 中国五大钨企业（中钨高新、厦门钨业等）控制全国近一半产量，资源 集中度高，对国内外市场具有举足轻重的影响力。 尽管 2025 年钨市场供应与去年持平，但受战争因素和预期影响，库存 补充需求增加，消费略有增长，价格大幅上涨。 当前钨行业上下游利润分配不均，上游矿山利润率超 60%，中游冶炼业 利润率不足 3%，不利于产业链健康发展，亟需合理调整。 预计 2026 年钨需求将因军事用途增加而增长，同时中国收紧钨开采配 额将导致供应减少，可能进一步推高钨价。 Q&A 今年以来钨行业整体价格表现强势，您能否介绍一下钨行业的结构及其产业链 情况？ 钨行业的产业链分为上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is experiencing significant price increases due to tightening supply and rising demand, with major tungsten companies adjusting their prices accordingly [5][6][7]. Price Trends - Tungsten concentrate prices have surged, with a recent increase of 3,000 to 10,000 yuan per ton, reaching 217,000 yuan per ton as of August 20, marking a 51.75% increase since the beginning of the year [5][6]. - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices are reported at 311,500 yuan per ton, up 47.98% year-to-date, while tungsten powder prices have risen to 482.5 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 53.91% increase [6]. Supply Dynamics - The Ministry of Natural Resources has set a control target for tungsten mining at 58,000 tons for 2025, a reduction of 4,000 tons (6.45%) compared to the previous year [6]. - Major tungsten-producing provinces, Jiangxi and Yunnan, have also seen reductions in mining volumes, contributing to a significant decrease in market circulation [6]. Demand Drivers - The demand for tungsten hard alloys is growing due to their superior properties, with applications in various industries including aerospace, defense, and electronics [7]. - The demand for tungsten in the renewable energy sector is expected to rise, with projections indicating a 22% year-on-year increase in consumption for lithium battery applications by 2025 [7]. Stock Performance - Tungsten-related stocks have generally risen, with an average increase of 10.1% since August, led by companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongtung High-tech, which saw increases of 22.48% and 18.99%, respectively [8]. - The median rolling price-to-earnings ratio for tungsten stocks is 30.24, with some companies like Shengtun Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum having ratios below 20 [8]. Company Performance - Among the eight companies that have reported their half-year results, three-quarters have shown positive growth, with Xianglu Tungsten and Guangsheng Nonferrous turning losses into profits [8]. - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to report a net profit of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.37% to 67.98% [8].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The lithium carbonate price increased by 0.91% to 72,000 CNY/ton as of August 8, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the industry that may be difficult to resolve [6][42] - Nickel prices rose, with LME nickel closing at 212,232 USD/ton, up 1.51% from August 1, 2025, while domestic nickel prices also increased by 1.05% to 121,000 CNY/ton [21][24] - Cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt down 1.48% to 266,000 CNY/ton, while cobalt oxide rose by 2.54% to 203.50 CNY/kg [25][30] - Antimony prices decreased, with antimony ingot averaging 185,000 CNY/ton, down 1.33% from July 31, 2025, amid tight supply conditions [31][35] - The nickel industry faces potential supply disruptions due to the suspension of production lines by Chinese mining giant Tsingshan in Indonesia, which may impact local nickel mining and support nickel prices [12][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Updates - Nickel prices increased, with LME nickel at 212,232 USD/ton and domestic nickel at 121,000 CNY/ton, while supply remains stable despite weather conditions [21][24] - Cobalt prices fluctuated, with electrolytic cobalt down and cobalt oxide up, influenced by raw material shortages from the Democratic Republic of Congo [25][30] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices fell, with domestic antimony ingot at 185,000 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight and production is limited due to many manufacturers being offline [31][35] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices rose to 72,000 CNY/ton, with high inventory levels and slow de-stocking, indicating ongoing supply challenges [6][42] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market remains stable, with domestic production indicators not showing significant growth, and the U.S. government is working to rebuild its rare earth supply chain [15][42] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices increased, with LME tin at 33,900 USD/ton, as supply from Myanmar remains constrained due to production issues [9][15] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices rose slightly, with white tungsten at 193,500 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight due to reduced mining quotas [10][11] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics in lithium supply [42]

Core Viewpoint - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry (002378.SZ) reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising tungsten product prices and increased sales volume [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 2.406 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.65% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 115 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.54% [1] Market Factors - The growth in total operating revenue is attributed to the rise in tungsten product market prices and an increase in product sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong business performance and growth potential in the tungsten industry [2] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue reached approximately 2.406 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.65% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 115 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.54% [2] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.1 yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.11% compared to the previous year [2]

Group 1 - The stock price of Xianglu Tungsten Industry is reported at 9.02 yuan as of August 5, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.29 billion yuan [1] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry is primarily engaged in the research, development, production, and sales of tungsten products, including tungsten powder and hard alloys, which are widely used in mechanical processing and mining industries [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for the company is 25,308, a decrease of 3,951 shareholders compared to July 20, representing a 13.50% decline [1] Group 2 - The company expects a net profit for the first half of the year to be between 15 million yuan and 22 million yuan [1] - On August 5, 2025, the net outflow of main funds for Xianglu Tungsten Industry was 31.98 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 81.87 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing a reduction in mining quotas, with the first batch of quotas for 2024 down by 6.5% year-on-year, leading to an increase in black tungsten concentrate prices, which approached 200,000 yuan/ton by the end of July, reflecting a rise of over 30% since the beginning of the year [1][2] - China's tungsten consumption is projected to be around 70,000 tons in 2024, with mining supply at 60,000 tons and the remainder sourced from recycling [1][2] - Hard alloys account for nearly 60% of tungsten consumption, while tungsten materials (including photovoltaic tungsten wire) make up 23% [1][2] Price Trends - Since 2020, tungsten prices have shown a gradual upward trend, with significant increases following the announcement of the first batch of quotas each year [4] - The highest operating rate in five years was recorded in June, indicating resilient demand [4] Global and Domestic Supply - Global tungsten resources are estimated at 4.6 million tons, with China holding 52% of the reserves and accounting for 83% of the production, primarily concentrated in Jiangxi and Hunan provinces [5] - China has implemented total control over tungsten mining since 2002, with the first batch of quotas for 2025 also down by 6.5% year-on-year [6] Future Supply Expectations - Domestic projects like Dahuatang and Zhuxi are expected to add approximately 13,000 tons of tungsten supply by 2030, while overseas projects in Kazakhstan and Australia are anticipated to contribute an additional 10,000 tons [7] Recycling and Cost Advantages - The proportion of recycled tungsten in China is currently low but offers cost advantages, with a shorter production cycle and lower manufacturing costs compared to primary tungsten [8] Import and Export Dynamics - Despite producing 80% to 90% of global tungsten concentrate, China still imports about 10,000 tons annually, with downstream products being exported after powder metallurgy [9] Demand Concentration and Trends - Tungsten demand is primarily concentrated in four sectors: special steel, chemicals, tungsten materials, and hard alloys, with significant growth in hard alloys and tungsten materials expected [10][11] - The hard alloy sector has seen production increase from 23,000 tons in 2015 to 60,000 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [13] Impact of Major Projects - The Yashan project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly increase tungsten demand over the next decade due to extensive use of tungsten tools and equipment [12] Technological Advancements - The implementation of nuclear fusion technology, expected around 2040, could dramatically increase global tungsten demand, with a single 1GW fusion reactor requiring 29,000 tons of tungsten over its 40-year lifespan [17] Market Dynamics - The domestic supply-demand balance indicates a growing gap, with overall consumption projected to rise from 60,000 tons in 2024 to over 70,000 tons by 2027 [18] Key Companies in the A-Share Market - Five key companies in the A-share market are involved in tungsten: Xiamen Property, Zhonggao New, Zhangyuan Property, Xiaolu Property, and Anyuan Meiyu, with Zhonggao New and Zhangyuan Property focusing solely on tungsten business [19][20]

Industry Overview - The ammonium paratungstate (APT) industry in China has seen significant development driven by national policy support and market demand, with China being the largest producer and seller of tungsten globally [1][7] - As of June 2025, the price of APT in China reached 251,500 yuan per ton, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.19% [1][7] - The Chinese government has implemented strict total control and quota management on tungsten mining to ensure sustainable resource utilization, with the first batch of tungsten mining indicators for 2025 being tightened, reducing the total control indicator by 4,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% compared to 2024 [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten concentrate is limited due to government policies, which in turn affects APT production [1][7] - There is a continuous increase in demand for APT driven by rapid global manufacturing and infrastructure development, particularly in downstream industries such as hard alloys, tungsten material processing, and petrochemicals [1][7] Production and Profitability - As of June 2025, the operating rate of APT in China was 74.95%, an increase of 9.76 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high APT prices that expanded profit margins for producers [9] - The gross profit margin for APT in the last week of June 2025 was 0.08 yuan per ton, a decrease of 52.94% year-on-year, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability due to raw material price fluctuations and increased competition [11] Export Trends - China has historically been a major exporter of APT, with export volumes significantly exceeding imports. However, in 2025, the implementation of export control policies led to a notable decline in export quantities, with a 52.78% year-on-year decrease in the first five months of 2025 [12] Key Players in the Industry - Major companies in the APT market include Xiamen Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Group, which are leaders in production scale, technology, and market share [14] - Xiamen Tungsten Industry has an annual APT production capacity of 45,000 tons and is recognized for its high-purity APT production technology [16] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry has a production capacity of 22,000 tons per year and has achieved significant improvements in production efficiency through advanced technologies [18] Industry Development Trends - The APT industry is expected to focus on technological innovation and green production methods to enhance product quality and production efficiency while minimizing environmental impact [20] - Companies are likely to accelerate the integration and extension of the industrial chain to enhance competitiveness and reduce risks, potentially through mergers and acquisitions [21] - The demand for APT is anticipated to expand further due to the acceleration of global industrialization and the growth of high-end manufacturing sectors such as renewable energy and aerospace [22]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) as a leading player in the packaged water and beverage sector, emphasizing its sustainable growth driven by long-term management and strong channel barriers [7][9] - Since its IPO, Nongfu Spring has maintained a valuation average of 40x, indicating a significant premium due to its market leadership and growth potential in the packaged water and sugar-free tea segments [7][9] - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure and efficient management, which contributes to its competitive advantage in the beverage market [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The packaged water market is projected to grow, with a scale of 247 billion in 2024, driven by large packaging and bulk sales, indicating a continued mid-single-digit growth rate [8] - The soft drink sector is evolving, with Nongfu Spring positioned well to capitalize on the shift towards healthier, low-sugar beverages, enhancing its profitability over time [8][9] - The report notes that the competitive landscape is characterized by strong channel foundations and product endorsements, which Nongfu Spring has effectively leveraged to lead industry upgrades [9] Group 3: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Nongfu Spring are set at 50.1 billion, 56.8 billion, and 63.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 14.79 billion, 16.97 billion, and 18.99 billion, reflecting growth rates of 22.0%, 14.7%, and 11.9% [9] - The expected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.32, 1.51, and 1.69 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 33, 29, and 26 [9] - The report assigns a target price range of 56.65 to 59.48 HKD for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 20% to 26% from the current stock price [9] Group 4: Industry Insights - The tungsten industry is highlighted as a strategic sector with supply constraints, where the first batch of mining quotas for 2025 is expected to decrease by 6.45% [15][16] - Demand for tungsten is anticipated to grow, particularly in the new energy vehicle and military sectors, supported by projects like the Yaxia project, which opens long-term market opportunities [17] - The report estimates a tungsten supply-demand gap of approximately 2,919 tons in 2025, suggesting that tungsten prices are likely to continue rising [18]