再再推【钨】：百万钨精矿时刻加速到来 20260227 摘要 钨精矿价格持续上涨，已接近 78 万~80 万元/吨，供需基础强化，预计 将突破 100 万元/吨的第一目标，时间可能提前至近期。该目标并非本 轮上限。 赣州市打击非法采矿行动可能显著影响钨矿供给，年化口径对钨精矿供 给产量的影响可能超过 5%，且预计影响将持续，合规化趋势将延续。 节后刀具企业如华锐、厦门钨业等纷纷上调硬质合金产品价格 10%- 20%，表明钨精矿涨价向下游传导顺畅，刀具企业毛利率仍可维持在接 近 30%左右。 民用需求端，硬质合金产量增速与刀具企业毛利率显著相关。若硬质合 金产量增长 10%，需求增量有能力覆盖全球钨精矿投产带来的供给增速。 预计 2026、2027 年民用需求年化增速至少在 6%~7%以上，高于全 球钨矿总供应增速（约 4%）。 钨的军工消费占比约 15%。逆全球化背景下，美国战略韧性储备计划和 金库计划提升钨的储备优先级。同时，钨处于出口管制框架内，海外备 库需求动力强劲，2026 年仍值得预期。 Q&A 钨精矿价格的最新位置、目标价位与实现节奏如何判断？ 年后钨精矿价格持续上行，近期已涨至接近 78 万~8 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Jiaxin International Resources (03858) has seen a significant stock price increase of nearly 7%, currently trading at 88.4 HKD, with a transaction volume of 87.2766 million HKD [1] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to equity holders of approximately 300 million to 340 million HKD for 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss to profit [1] - The expected turnaround to profitability is attributed to the fact that the group will not commence operations until 2024, resulting in losses without any revenue during that period [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 25.19% to 671,000 RMB per ton, while the price of ammonium paratungstate has increased by 24.68% to 985,000 RMB per ton [1] - On the supply side, stricter safety and environmental controls in mines have led to a noticeable decline in production and shipments as the year-end approaches, resulting in a temporary tightening of tungsten supply [1] - On the demand side, domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential procurement, with a positive outlook for PCB tool demand [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jiaxin International Resources (03858) is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 300 million to HKD 340 million, reversing from a loss in the previous year [1] - The company anticipates that it will not generate any revenue in 2024, leading to losses, but will commence commercial production in April 2025, marking the start of profit generation [1] - The stock price of Jiaxin International Resources has increased by nearly 7%, with a current price of HKD 88.4 and a trading volume of HKD 87.2766 million [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 25.19% to RMB 671,000 per ton, while the price of ammonium paratungstate has increased by 24.68% to RMB 985,000 per ton [1] - Supply-side factors include stricter safety and environmental controls in mines, leading to a noticeable decline in production and shipments as the year-end approaches [1] - On the demand side, domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential purchases, with a positive outlook for PCB tool demand [1]

Group 1 - The current price of domestic black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is 200,400 RMB/ton, marking a significant increase of over 39% since the beginning of the year [1] - The rise in tungsten prices is attributed to tighter supply due to export controls and stricter environmental production constraints, along with positive sentiment driven by domestic supply-side policy signals and external capital [1] - The implementation of the new industry standard for recycled tungsten materials in China on July 1, 2025, may alleviate the underutilization of capacity in recycling enterprises, but its long-term impact on offsetting slow supply growth is limited [4] Group 2 - The price of tungsten products is reaching new highs, influenced by the first batch of tungsten concentrate quotas and environmental inspections leading to decreased supply [4] - The expected increase in foreign tungsten mines, such as Sandong and Dolphin, has not materialized, while the successful production of the Bakuta tungsten mine is hindered by a lack of local smelting capacity, necessitating transportation back to China for processing before export [4] - The overall balance sheet for tungsten remains tight, with a more pronounced supply gap overseas compared to domestic levels, leading to an optimistic price outlook [4]