点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 报告摘要 流动性：10月BCI中小企业融资环境指数值为52.41，环比+10.15% （1）BCI中小企业融资环境指数2025年10月值为52.41，环比上月+10.15%；（2）M1和M2增速差与上证 指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1和M2增速差在2025年10月为-2.0个百分点，环比-0.80个百分点；（3）本 周伦敦金现价格为4064美元/盎司。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 基建和地产链条：水泥、沥青开工率降至5年同期最低水平 （1）本周价格变动：螺纹+1.89%、水泥价格指数-0.47%、橡胶+0.34%、焦炭+3.29%、焦煤-0.95%、铁矿 +1.40%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水泥、沥青开工率环比分别-0.22pct、-10.80pct、-8 ...

周期半月谈 - 年末年初周期板块供需前景展望 20251123 摘要 油气化工行业资本支出持续下降，2024 年降幅达 20%，2025 年前三 季度再降 10%，预示新增产能减少，有助于改善供需关系，行业自律会 议推动部分产品如有机硅、DMAC 价格上涨，吉林西安通过供应收缩和 装置检修稳定价格。 与锂电相关的 EC、DMC、DEC 等溶剂需求旺盛，价格分别上涨 47.8%、10%、5.1%，受益于供需紧张而非价格协同。华鲁拥有大量 DMAC 和 DGC、EMC 产能，有望受益于相关产品涨价。 煤炭市场明年需求预计平稳偏弱，受经济增速和风光发电替代影响，但 安监环保压力增大抑制产量。煤价中枢预计维持在 750-800 元/吨，稳 定中枢对煤炭公司是利好，长协结构基本不变，坑口煤定价或参照下水 煤方式，增强稳定性。 建材行业受地产下行影响，需求和价格不理想，预计明年新开工项目继 续下跌但跌幅收窄。涂料需求相对较好，玻纤受益于风电装机增长，钢 铁行业反内卷力度不足，减产目标执行存疑，水泥需求下降明显，需严 格执行限产政策并推动碳交易。 当前油气化工行业逐步进入季节性淡季，尽管今年春节较晚，但整体需求端在 房地产 ...

上证报指出，今年以来，主要钨制品价格涨幅较大，与年初价格相比，全产业链产品价格均创下历史新 高。据中钨在线最新数据显示，主要钨制品价格年内已实现全线涨超120%，最高涨幅超140%。 据上证报报道，11月20日，章源钨业官微公布11月下半月长单采购报价:55%黑钨精矿32.80万元/标 吨;55%白钨精矿32.70万元/标吨;仲钨酸铵(国标零级)47.80万元/吨。相关产品价格相较11月上半月均再 次出现上涨，涨幅在6%左右。 今年以来，随着光伏、汽车等产业的显著增长，钨的需求量随之大幅提升。与此同时，供给端的收紧进 一步加剧了市场供需的紧张态势。数据显示，从供给端看，2025年上半年，年度第一批钨矿开采总量控 制指标为58,000吨，较2024年第一批指标减少4,000吨，同比下降 6.45%。需求方面，新能源领域钨需求 近年来显著增长，其中光伏钨丝的需求增长尤为亮眼。业内人士认为，随着供给端收紧、下游需求刚性 支撑及国际局势等多重因素交织，未来一段时间内价格或将保持高位运行。 公司方面，据上证报表示， 中钨高新：主营钨精矿、硬质合金和刀具等产品，拟收购远景钨业注入优质矿山资产，子公司金洲精工 是全球PCB ...

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, with a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of 0.80 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4082 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year new construction area of national real estate is -19.80% [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar at -0.94% and cement price index at -0.76%, while rubber increased by 3.14% [5] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 0.99 percentage points, while cement and asphalt decreased by 11.30 percentage points and increased by 1.0 percentage points, respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year completion area of commercial housing is -16.90% [6] - The weekly operating rate for flat glass is 75%, with glass and titanium dioxide prices remaining unchanged [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high [7] - Weekly price changes for major bulk commodities include cold-rolled steel at -1.00%, copper at +1.11%, and aluminum at +1.44% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.68%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The spot price of oriented silicon steel has decreased by 23% year-to-date [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 25.47% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,890 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.44% and a calculated profit of 4,622 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [8] Price Comparison - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.01 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 110 yuan/ton [10] - The price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel in Shanghai is 470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,094.03 points, with a month-on-month increase of 3.39% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.30 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being real estate at +2.70% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 44.37% and 91.89%, respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.56, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the tungsten industry, highlighting its strategic importance and potential for price stability due to supply-demand dynamics [7]. Core Insights - Tungsten is recognized as a strategic critical metal with extensive applications in key sectors such as aerospace, automotive, and defense, leading to increased global focus on its supply and demand [2][5]. - The global tungsten supply is tightening, primarily due to China's control over production and export policies, which are expected to maintain high tungsten prices [5][23]. - Demand for tungsten is projected to grow, driven by sectors like renewable energy and advanced manufacturing, with significant increases in consumption expected in the coming years [4][24]. Supply Side Summary - Global tungsten reserves are increasing, from 3.4 million tons in 2020 to 4.6 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.85% [3]. - China holds the largest tungsten reserves, accounting for about 52.2% of the global total, while implementing strict mining controls that are expected to further tighten supply [3][23]. - The first batch of tungsten concentrate mining indicators for 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, indicating a continued tightening of supply [3][46]. Demand Side Summary - Hard alloys and tungsten wire are the primary drivers of tungsten demand, with hard alloys accounting for 65% of global consumption [4]. - In the first half of 2025, China's tungsten consumption reached 35,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with significant growth in the hard alloy sector due to manufacturing upgrades [4][24]. - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is expected to create new demand for high-performance tungsten alloys, with projections exceeding 10,000 tons [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading tungsten mining companies in China, such as Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten High-Tech, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply and increasing demand [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.823 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.71% and a year-on-year increase of 39.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.3% and a year-on-year increase of 109.85%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 792 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.67% and a year-on-year increase of 114.05%. The strong performance reflects the company's resource profitability elasticity and competitive positioning in the downstream industry chain [2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported operating revenue of 12.823 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 18.71% and a year-on-year growth of 39.27% [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 810 million yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.3% and a year-on-year increase of 109.85% [2][4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 792 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.67% and a year-on-year increase of 114.05% [2][4] Segment Performance - The tungsten and molybdenum segment generated revenue of 5.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19% and a profit of 1.058 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43% [11] - The energy new materials segment achieved revenue of 5.525 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% and a profit of 273 million yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27% [11] - The rare earth magnetic materials segment reported revenue of 1.579 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% and a profit of 60 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [11]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Tool Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tool industry, specifically highlighting the performance of companies Huari Co., Ltd. and Oke Yi in Q3 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Significant Growth**: - Huari reported a revenue growth of approximately 45% in Q3 2025, with a net profit of around 50 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9 times [1][2][3]. - Oke Yi's revenue increased by 33% year-on-year and 40% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit exceeding 50 million yuan, reflecting a 70% year-on-year growth [1][2][4]. - **Raw Material Price Surge**: - The prices of key raw materials, tungsten concentrate and tungsten carbide, have skyrocketed, with tungsten concentrate rising from 140,000-150,000 yuan to over 300,000 yuan, and tungsten carbide increasing from over 300 yuan to around 710-720 yuan [1][5][6]. - This price surge has acted as a catalyst for industry growth, allowing midstream consumables to effectively transmit price increases [5]. - **Price Adjustments by Companies**: - Huari and Oke Yi have implemented 3-4 rounds of price adjustments this year, with each adjustment around 10%, totaling an overall adjustment of 30%-40% to cover raw material cost increases [6]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The industrial sector is experiencing low inventory levels combined with direct replenishment demand, putting pressure on smaller companies while larger firms adjust sales strategies to navigate market changes [6][7]. - Emerging industries such as wind power, automotive, and military are driving rigid demand growth, leading to a depletion of low-priced inventory among distributors and prompting tool replenishment [7]. - **Current Industry Challenges**: - The tool industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, with weakened demand in general automation and manufacturing since 2022, leading to reduced inventory levels without significant replenishment [8]. - Despite revenue growth, profit margins have been under pressure due to low capacity utilization and previous investments [8]. - **Future Outlook**: - There is an optimistic outlook for the tool industry, with potential policy signals that could trigger a new wave of demand [11]. - The ongoing trends of international expansion and high-end product development are expected to continue, with Huari and Oke Yi positioned as leading companies in this sector [11]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Considerations**: - The importance of inventory cycles in investment decisions is diminishing, but attention should still be paid to inventory and demand momentum [12]. - The current bottom of the cycle presents opportunities in cyclical assets like consumable tools, which can benefit directly from changes in demand due to low inventory levels [12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the tool industry and the performance of Huari and Oke Yi, highlighting growth trends, challenges, and future expectations.

Investment Rating - The report gives the company an "Accumulate" rating [4]. Core Views - The company is a state-owned enterprise and a leader in gold and antimony resources, with a dual-driven model of "gold + antimony" ensuring sustainable development [2][11]. - The company has benefited from rising prices of gold and antimony, leading to significant revenue and profit growth in 2025 [21][24]. - The company has a robust resource base, with plans for future projects that are expected to enhance production capacity [4][37]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the mining, selection, smelting, and processing of gold, antimony, tungsten, and other non-ferrous metals, along with the import and export of related products [2][11]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 30 mining rights, including 18 exploration rights and 12 mining rights, with a total resource reserve of 6,729 million tons [18][39]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 41.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.26%, and a net profit of 1.029 billion yuan, up 54.28% [21][23]. - The company forecasts revenues of 48.925 billion, 58.070 billion, and 63.851 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 1.812 billion, 2.519 billion, and 2.787 billion yuan [4][6]. Resource and Production - The company has a gold resource reserve of 137,856 kilograms and an antimony reserve of 323,060 tons as of the end of 2024 [18][39]. - In 2024, the company produced 46,328 kilograms of gold, a decrease of 2.87% year-on-year, and 29,209 tons of antimony, down 6.15% [20][42]. Future Projects - The company is investing in the Gansu Jiaxin Yidinan mining project, which is expected to enhance gold production capacity significantly [37][38]. - The project is projected to generate an average annual sales revenue of 319 million yuan and a net profit of approximately 56.43 million yuan after tax [37]. Subsidiary Performance - The company's subsidiaries are performing well, with significant contributions to overall production and revenue [39]. - The main subsidiaries include Hunan Chenzhou Mining, Gansu Chenzhou, and Hunan Golden Cave Mining, each contributing to the company's diverse resource base [39][46].

公司上游主要业务是钨矿山资源的勘探、采选，主要产品 为钨精矿，其作为原料用于仲钨酸铵的生产，副产品锡精矿和 铜精矿直接对外销售。 公司中游主要生产各种规格的粉末产品，公司可生产超细 颗粒、细颗粒、中颗粒、粗颗粒、超粗颗粒、超纯粉末产品， 满足不同客户需求。 硬质合金是公司的下游端产品，公司依托本部、赣州澳克 泰和章源喷涂，构建了层次分明、品类丰富的硬质合金产品及 完善的服务体系。其中：公司本部主要生产球齿、传统刀片、 异型、冷镦模、钎片等各类硬质合金产品以及热喷涂粉；赣州 澳克泰主要生产机加工用刀具，其生产的车刀、铣刀、钻刀、 槽刀、金属陶瓷刀片及整体硬质合金刀具产品，可用于钢件、 不锈钢、铸铁、铝合金、高温合金、高硬度钢及复合材料等材 质加工；章源喷涂主要为客户提供工件表面喷涂服务，服务对 象包括新能源行业的电池极片轧辊、传动辊，石油化工机械行 业的螺杆钻具转子、阀门、阀板、阀球等。 二、公司矿山情况 证券代码：002378 证券简称：章源钨业 崇义章源钨业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20251112 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.70 yuan [5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 12.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 846 million yuan, up 18.26% [1]. - The acquisition of a 99.9733% stake in Yuanjing Tungsten Industry for 821 million yuan is expected to enhance the company's tungsten resource self-sufficiency and strengthen its ability to integrate resources within the tungsten industry [2]. - The tightening supply-demand dynamics in the tungsten market are anticipated to support high tungsten prices, with domestic black tungsten and white tungsten prices increasing by approximately 118.88% and 119.72% respectively since the beginning of the year [3]. - The company continues to lead in the production of hard alloys and CNC blades, with significant growth in demand driven by advancements in AI and the PCB tool market [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.98%, and a net profit of 335 million yuan, up 36.53% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit for Q3 2025 was 297 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 725.45%, primarily due to the acquisition of Shizhu Garden Company [1]. Market Dynamics - The national tungsten concentrate production is on a downward trend, with a 6.5% year-on-year decrease in the first batch of mining quotas for 2025 [3]. - The demand for tungsten is expected to grow steadily due to developments in aerospace, new energy vehicles, and electronics [3]. Production and Capacity - The company’s hard alloy production exceeded 75,000 tons in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the global leader [4]. - The subsidiary Jinzhou Precision has a significant market share in the PCB micro-drill sector, with over 80% coverage of the top 20 global PCB customers [4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin for 2024 and Q1-Q3 2025 was 22.07% and 21.83% respectively, showing slight improvements year-on-year [9]. - The company has effectively reduced its expense ratios across various categories, indicating improved cost management [9]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.183 billion yuan, 1.454 billion yuan, and 1.630 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47.60, 38.72, and 34.52 [10].