期货研究报告 2025年12月29日 周报 铜：铜价新高，现货承压 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：内外盘铜价在"强预期"与"弱现实"的激烈博弈中实现历史性突破。LME 铜价于周初率先触及高点，沪铜主力合约则于周五盘中触及98,800元/吨的历史新高。本周市场最突 出的特征在于"强预期"彻底压倒了"弱现实"，在期货价格创下新高的同时，现货市场发出了明确 的疲软信号。 宏观面上，宽松预期延续，美元持续走弱为铜价提供支撑。供给端，智利矿山罢工带来减产风险， 矿端生产扰动与冶炼端CSPT的联合减产计划形成共振，强化供应紧张叙事。需求端，极高的现货价格 已严重抑制实际消费，下游采购极为谨慎，现货电解铜贴水持续扩大，社会库存增幅显著。周内铜价 飙升主要由高涨的市场情绪驱动，一旦情绪退潮，铜价可能会出现剧烈波动。中长期看涨逻辑不改， 警惕短期高位回调风险，做好风险防范。 关注因素：中美12月PMI数据、美联储会议纪要、下游需求变动 | | 单位 | 本周最新 | 上周同期 | 周度环比 | 周度环比 | 频率 | | --- | --- ...

【12月29日现货白银突破80美元，铂金触及历史新高】12月29日周一，受供应紧张、工业需求强劲及美 国进一步降息预期支撑，现货白银价格一度突破每盎司80美元大关，铂金价格也一度触及历史新高。 白银年内迄今一度上涨181%，涨幅远超黄金。这得益于其被列入美国关键矿产清单、供应紧张、库存 偏低，以及工业和投资需求增长。 金价今年迄今一度上涨72%，并多次刷新历史纪录。其上涨受多重 因素推动，包括美联储降息及宽松预期、地缘政治紧张、央行强劲需求，以及交易所交易基金持仓量增 加。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 【12月29日现货白银突破80美元,铂金触及历史新 高】12月29日周一,受供应紧张、工业需求强劲及 美国进一步降息预期支撑,现货白银价格一度突破 每盎司80美元大关,铂金价格也一度触及历史新 高。白银年内迄今一度上涨181%，涨幅远超黄金。 这得益于其被列入美国关键矿产清单、供应紧张、 库存偏低,以及工业和投资需求增长。金价今年迄 今一度上涨72%,并多次刷新历史纪录。其上涨受 多重因素推动,包括美联储降息及宽松预期、地缘 政治紧张 ...

来源:金融界AI电报 周一，主要受供应紧张、强劲的工业需求以及对美国进一步降息的预期支撑，现货白银价格一度突破每 盎司80美元大关，铂金价格也一度触及历史新高。白银年内迄今一度上涨181%，涨幅远超黄金。这主 要得益于其被列入美国关键矿产清单、供应紧张、库存偏低，以及工业和投资需求的增长。金价今年迄 今一度上涨72%，并多次刷新历史纪录。黄金上涨受到多重因素推动，包括美联储降息及进一步宽松的 预期、地缘政治紧张局势、各国寻求摆脱美国证券和美元背景下央行的强劲需求，以及交易所交易基金 持仓量的增加。 ...

据新华社纽约12月26日电 （记者徐静）受避险需求增加等因素拉动，国际黄金、白银价格26日再创新 高。其中，交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期货价格一度达到每盎司4581.30美元，3月白银期货价格突破 每盎司79美元，逼近80美元。 目前，白银相对强弱指数（RSI）读数为93.86，为自1980年1月以来最 高。 最近一周，纽约商品交易所黄金期货RSI创下历史最高纪录，达95.94。黄金RSI历史第二高值出现 在1980年1月，当时达94.69。 今年以来，黄金价格飙升逾70％，有望创下自1979年以来最大年度涨幅。 白银价格今年迄今已上涨超过170％。 受供应紧张等因素影响，铂金期货价格最近一周也飙升至历史新 高，首次突破每盎司2300美元大关。 ...

国际白银期价逼近每盎司80美元 多种贵金属期价创新高 受避险需求增加等因素拉动，国际黄金、白银价格26日再创新高。其中，交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金 期货价格一度达到每盎司4581.30美元，3月白银期货价格突破每盎司79美元，逼近80美元。 目前，白银相对强弱指数（RSI）读数为93.86，为自1980年1月以来最高。当时RSI曾创下98.77的历史 最高纪录。一些市场分析人士认为，任何高于70.0的RSI读数都表明市场上涨过度，后续可能出现回 调。 受供应紧张等因素影响，铂金期货价格最近一周也飙升至历史新高，首次突破每盎司2300美元大关。地 缘政治紧张局势升级以及近期美元走软也起到拉升作用。 最近一周，纽约商品交易所黄金期货RSI创下历史最高纪录，达95.94。黄金RSI历史第二高值出现在 1980年1月，当时达94.69。 今年以来，黄金价格飙升逾70%，有望创下自1979年以来最大年度涨幅。白银价格今年迄今已上涨超过 170%。 此外，纽约铜价继续上涨，进一步巩固了铜价的年度涨幅。一些投资者押注2026年全球铜供应将趋紧。 纽约商品交易所期铜价格26日上涨近4%，至每磅5.7855美元。 转自：新 ...

新华社纽约12月26日电（记者徐静）受避险需求增加等因素拉动，国际黄金、白银价格26日再创新高。 其中，交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期货价格一度达到每盎司4581.30美元，3月白银期货价格突破每盎 司79美元，逼近80美元。 目前，白银相对强弱指数（RSI）读数为93.86，为自1980年1月以来最高。当时RSI曾创下98.77的历史 最高纪录。一些市场分析人士认为，任何高于70.0的RSI读数都表明市场上涨过度，后续可能出现回 调。 此外，纽约铜价继续上涨，进一步巩固了铜价的年度涨幅。一些投资者押注2026年全球铜供应将趋紧。 纽约商品交易所期铜价格26日上涨近4%，至每磅5.7855美元。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵阳】 最近一周，纽约商品交易所黄金期货RSI创下历史最高纪录，达95.94。黄金RSI历史第二高值出现在 1980年1月，当时达94.69。 今年以来，黄金价格飙升逾70%，有望创下自1979年以来最大年度涨幅。白银价格今年迄今已上涨超过 170%。 受供应紧张等因素影响，铂金期货价格最近一周也飙升至历史新高，首次突破每盎司2300美元大关。地 缘政治紧张局势升级以及近期美元走软也起到拉升作 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

技术面：金价日内上涨动能虽然有所减弱，布林带呈现扩张态势，预示着强劲的趋势有望延续，金价受 10月末延续的上升趋势线抬升显著，预计看涨仍可能占据主导。尽管整体趋势看涨，但14日相对强弱指 数已升至80上方，表明市场处于超买状态。这意味着在金价展开下一轮上涨前，可能需要经历一段时间 的震荡整理，任何进一步上行空间或将受限。 12月24日，市场对美联储明年进一步降息的预期日益升温，这可能提振金价。在通胀缓解和就业增长疲 软的迹象下，市场预计美联储将在2026年进行两次降息，相关预期或因此后公布的经济数据影响，再度 提升，利率降低可能会减少持有黄金的机会成本，从而为这种无收益的贵金属提供支撑。在圣诞节假期 前夕，交易相对清淡。交易者正等待周三晚些时候将公布的美国初请失业金数据，以寻求新的动力。 然而，金价的回撤空间可能有限，因为持续的地缘政治不确定性，尤其是美国与委内瑞拉之间的冲突， 可能会保持避险需求的高企。 上行方面，若金价反复测试4500心里关口后，本周坚守该水平，则可能再次上攻4550美元，并有望进一 步挑战4600美元的整数关口。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒 ...

（文华综合） LME三个月期铜涨超1%，盘中创下12,282美元纪录高位，因数据显示美国经济强劲增长，提振了铜需求前景，同时供应紧张相关迹象也提供支撑。 （截至12月24日15:39分，伦铜的价格走势） ...