1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The prolonged Middle - East conflict intensifies concerns about inflation and economic slowdown, suppressing the sentiment in the overseas equity market. However, the enhanced attribute of key mineral resources provides support. The TC remains at a low level, the copper mine supply is tight, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, and the scrap copper substitution is limited. The inventory accumulation pressure eases, and the copper price has support in the short term [2][3]. - **Aluminum**: The supply risk in the Middle - East region due to the conflict remains unresolved, and the planned shutdown and maintenance of South32's Mozambique electrolytic aluminum plant are expected to keep the supply tight, especially overseas. The domestic downstream is resuming production, and the increase in the domestic molten aluminum ratio is expected to reduce the inventory accumulation pressure of aluminum ingots, so the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [5][6]. - **Lead**: The lead ore inventory and lead concentrate TC have a slight increase, while the inventory of recycled raw materials declines marginally. The operating rates of smelters have decreased, and the recycled lead smelting is restricted by raw materials. The finished - product inventory of battery dealers is higher than in previous years, and the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate has not fully recovered. Although there is significant inventory accumulation at home and abroad, the lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the narrowing smelting profit may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. The lead price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rebound as the supply narrows [8][9]. - **Zinc**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate has a slight increase, and the smelting profit has slightly improved. The finished - product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The Iran - related conflict has a small real - impact on zinc ore supply, but there are still concerns about trade disruptions and energy price hikes. The sharp rise in oil prices has raised inflation concerns, and the downward adjustment of interest - rate cut expectations has put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The zinc price has a risk of breaking downward and is expected to show wide - range fluctuations during the conflict [10][11]. - **Tin**: Under the background of macro - easing and general price increases in the semiconductor industry, the sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong. However, the supply - demand of tin ingots is marginally loose, and the inventory has been steadily rising recently, so it is not advisable to blindly chase the high price. The intensification of the US - Iran conflict may put pressure on risk assets, and the tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy and the steady increase in nickel ore prices support the upward movement of the nickel price center. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market is limited, and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has reduced market risk appetite. The price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The intensification of the Iran situation has increased macro - concerns and significantly cooled the speculative sentiment. The commodity market is divided, with oil and chemical products rising and lithium carbonate and other previously rebounding varieties correcting. The total position of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate contracts decreased last week. The repeated disturbances of Zimbabwe's mineral ban have been fully digested. After the festival, the salt factory's operating rate has increased, and the inventory reduction of domestic lithium carbonate has narrowed. The spot market is in a tight supply situation during the peak lithium - battery season. The decline in the lithium price may release spot buying, but it is necessary to be cautious about being bullish before the downward trend ends. Future attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market [17][18]. - **Alumina**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start - up have reduced the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end remains in surplus, and the high - level of warehouse receipt registration due to the premium on the futures market suppresses the upward movement of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to potential driving factors such as the production reduction actions of Guinea's mines or the price - support actions of the Guinea government, and the implementation of supply - contraction policies at the smelting end [20][21]. - **Stainless Steel**: After the festival, the arrival of steel mill resources and the stagnant sales during the Spring Festival have led to a rapid accumulation of social inventory, increasing the supply - side pressure. The market procurement atmosphere has warmed up, and some traders and downstream customers have carried out concentrated inquiries and restocking, promoting a phased increase in trading volume. However, the actual procurement of downstream users is still small, and most are in the preparation stage for resuming work. The overall trading is mainly the resource circulation among traders. The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern [23][24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased. After the festival, the demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of production in the downstream. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and the seasonal shortage of raw material supply, the price may strengthen in the short term [26][27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the copper price first rose and then fell. On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract closed up 0.08% at $12,869/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,250 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 2,125 tons to 284,325 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The domestic SHFE weekly inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 425,000 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts increased by 12,000 tons to 315,000 tons. The spot discount in the East China and Guangdong regions narrowed, and the domestic copper spot import loss and the refined - scrap copper price difference both narrowed [2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price has support below. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 98,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,600 - 13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Due to the Middle - East conflict, the aluminum price rose strongly. On Friday, the LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 4.21% at $3,431/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 25,180 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 27,000 tons to 677,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons to 330,000 tons. The aluminum ingot inventory in three regions increased slightly, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The aluminum rod processing fee rebounded, and the market trading was average. The LME inventory decreased by 2,250 tons to 457,000 tons, and the cash/3M premium was $47.4/ton [5]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to remain tight, and the domestic aluminum water ratio is expected to increase, reducing the inventory accumulation pressure of aluminum ingots. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 - 26,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,350 - 3,600/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.02% at 16,781 yuan/ton, with a total position of 113,400 lots. The LME 3S lead rose $1.5 to $1,949.5/ton, with a total position of 171,700 lots. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 54,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 285,900 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: The lead price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually rebound as the supply narrows [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.04% at 24,295 yuan/ton, with a total position of 189,700 lots. The LME 3S zinc fell $55 to $3,256.5/ton, with a total position of 219,700 lots. The SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 24,150 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 76,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 95,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: The zinc price has a risk of breaking downward and is expected to show wide - range fluctuations during the conflict [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On March 6, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 393,190 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output remains at a low level. The downstream demand has not been effectively reflected, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [12]. - **Strategy**: The tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On March 6, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 137,550 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The spot premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [14]. - **Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On March 6, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 154,580 yuan, up 0.13% from the previous working day and down 11.03% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 156,160 yuan, up 0.19% from the previous day and down 11.29% for the week [17]. - **Strategy**: It is necessary to be cautious about being bullish before the downward trend of the lithium price ends. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 148,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On March 6, the alumina index rose 1.11% to 2,845 yuan/ton, with a total position of 457,700 lots, down 2,600 lots from the previous day. The Shandong spot price was 2,610 yuan/ton, at a discount of 222 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price rose $1/ton to $303/ton, and the import profit and loss was 1 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 337,200 tons, up 900 tons from the previous day [20]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain wide - range fluctuations. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,205 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern, with the reference range for the main contract being 14,000 - 14,400 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy price corrected. The main AD2604 contract closed down 0.6% at 23,280 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased, and the trading volume shrank. The inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: The price may strengthen in the short term [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Jiaxin International Resources (03858) has seen a significant stock price increase of nearly 7%, currently trading at 88.4 HKD, with a transaction volume of 87.2766 million HKD [1] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to equity holders of approximately 300 million to 340 million HKD for 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss to profit [1] - The expected turnaround to profitability is attributed to the fact that the group will not commence operations until 2024, resulting in losses without any revenue during that period [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 25.19% to 671,000 RMB per ton, while the price of ammonium paratungstate has increased by 24.68% to 985,000 RMB per ton [1] - On the supply side, stricter safety and environmental controls in mines have led to a noticeable decline in production and shipments as the year-end approaches, resulting in a temporary tightening of tungsten supply [1] - On the demand side, domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential procurement, with a positive outlook for PCB tool demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. aluminum market is anticipating a significant influx of imported aluminum in early 2026 to replenish inventory gaps, driven by tight spot supply and rising premiums [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Platts Midwest aluminum premium reached a historic high of $1.0095 per pound on January 23, 2026, surpassing the $1 per pound mark for the first time [1]. - The premium is expected to remain elevated in the first quarter of 2026 as new P1020 aluminum arrives in the U.S., with spot buyers accepting higher costs due to supply constraints [3]. - The Midwest premium increased by 55% from the price level of 50% tariffs that took effect on June 4, 2025, with a December 31, 2025 premium of 91.05 cents per pound [3]. Group 2: Import and Trade Relations - The U.S. imported 1.54 million tons of aluminum in 2025, with approximately 70% (1.01 million tons) sourced from Canada, while only India and the UAE exported over 100,000 tons to the U.S. [3]. - Due to uncertainties in U.S.-Canada relations and high European aluminum premiums, much of Canada's available capacity is committed to the European market until the end of the first quarter [4]. Group 3: Demand and Order Trends - Demand for aluminum in the U.S. is expected to remain stable from late 2025 to early 2026, with average order volumes from domestic producers only slightly differing from the previous year [6]. - However, aluminum order volumes began to decline at the end of 2025, with flat-rolled product orders decreasing by 11.4% month-over-month and extruded product orders down by 21.9% [6]. Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainties - Evaluating long-term demand is challenging due to fluctuating trade policies, with speculation about potential increases or decreases in aluminum tariffs [7]. - Participants are cautious, managing existing inventories and minimizing spot business, with overall storage estimates significantly below 200,000 tons [7]. Group 5: Contract Negotiations - The Platts Midwest premium forward curve has been in backwardation since its launch on January 2, 2026, with market participants relying on contracts and existing supplier relationships to meet short-term needs [8]. - Negotiations for 2026 contracts have started earlier and lasted longer than in previous years, as annual discounts are no longer feasible [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper prices are supported by a decline in the US dollar and supply disruptions, with recent price increases leading to decreased purchasing willingness among downstream consumers [1][3] - The latest closing price for London copper is reported at $13,183 per ton, an increase of $54 or 0.42%, while the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,460 yuan per ton, up 700 yuan or 0.68% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory has decreased to 170,525 tons, down 1,175 tons or 0.68% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to trading rules for copper futures, effective January 28, 2026, including an increase in the price fluctuation limit to 9% and higher margin requirements [2] - The adjustments aim to reduce leverage trading risks and avoid frequent trading halts due to price limits, thereby improving market liquidity [2] Group 3 - Supply concerns are heightened due to ongoing disruptions at the Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile, while domestic copper concentrate processing fees continue to decline, indicating a persistent tight supply situation [3] - Domestic smelting capacity has expanded, achieving a record high production last year, but rising inventories in both London and Shanghai are suppressing upward price movement [3] - The increase in copper prices has led to a decline in purchasing willingness among consumers, with expectations of further widening of spot discounts due to weak demand and rising inventories [3]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for silver is at an unprecedented high, driven by retail investors, leading to supply shortages and significant price increases in various markets [2][11][15]. Group 1: Demand Surge - Retail investors in Turkey are willing to pay $9 above the London benchmark price per ounce for silver, indicating a strong demand in the region [11]. - The demand for silver in India is reportedly higher than during the previous year's peak, with small-sized silver bars and coins being particularly popular [3][11]. - Public Gold DMCC's general manager noted that the demand observed is the highest he has ever seen, with many small-sized silver bars sold out in Turkey [9]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply of silver has been significantly impacted, with many Turkish refineries running out of stock for small-sized silver bars [9][11]. - The supply tightness observed in October last year has led to a global ripple effect, particularly affecting the liquidity of silver [3][11]. - Major refiners in India reported that their imports of silver ingots more than doubled from October to December last year, yet they still struggle to meet domestic demand [4][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The retail market is experiencing a shortage of small-sized silver bars and coins, as refiners typically produce larger bars [6][13]. - Analysts suggest that the current retail demand is supporting high prices, and whether this demand can be sustained will be crucial for the future price trajectory of silver [8][14]. - The recent surge in demand has led to the reintroduction of old silver bars into the market, as refiners struggle to keep up with the increased consumption [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The copper prices of both domestic and foreign markets achieved a historic breakthrough in the intense game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The LME copper price reached a high point at the beginning of the week, and the main contract of Shanghai copper hit a record high of 98,800 yuan/ton during Friday's trading session. The "strong expectation" completely overwhelmed the "weak reality" this week. While the futures price reached a new high, the spot market sent a clear signal of weakness. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the short - term risk of high - level correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review and Outlook - Macroscopically, the loose expectation continues, and the continuous weakening of the US dollar provides support for copper prices. On the supply side, the strike at Chilean mines brings the risk of production cuts. The production disturbances at the mine end resonate with the joint production cut plan of CSPT at the smelting end, strengthening the narrative of supply shortage. On the demand side, the extremely high spot price has seriously suppressed actual consumption. Downstream procurement is extremely cautious, the discount of spot electrolytic copper continues to widen, and the increase in social inventory is significant. The sharp rise in copper prices this week is mainly driven by high market sentiment. Once the sentiment fades, copper prices may fluctuate sharply [2]. Attention Factors - Pay attention to the Sino - US PMI data for December, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, and changes in downstream demand [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 97800 | 92315 | 5485 | 5.94% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | - 350 | - 155 | - 195 | - 125.81% | Weekly | | SHFE: Electrolytic copper: Basis | yuan/ton | - 980 | - 940 | - 40 | - 4.26% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | yuan/ton | 98800 | 93410 | 5390 | 5.77% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | tons | 157025 | 160400 | - 3375 | - 2.10% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | tons | 111703 | 95805 | 15898 | 16.59% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The content mainly includes the price trend charts of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio, with data sources from Boyi Master and Nanjing Securities Futures [5][6][8]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - It involves charts such as the forward spot price of copper concentrate (measured by TC price), the average spot processing price of blister copper, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, the price change trend of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference in major markets. The data sources are from Steel Union Terminal and Nanjing Securities Futures [13][14][16]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The content contains charts such as the premium/discount of 1 electrolytic copper (≥99.95%) in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgy). The data sources are from iFinD and Steel Union Terminal [21][22][27]. 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - It includes charts of electrolytic copper bonded area inventory and the inventory of three major futures exchanges, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Nanjing Securities Futures [31].

Core Insights - On December 29, spot silver prices surpassed $80 per ounce, while platinum reached a historical high, driven by supply constraints, strong industrial demand, and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by 181%, significantly outpacing gold, which has risen by 72% [1][2]. - The surge in silver prices is attributed to its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list, tight supply, low inventory levels, and growing industrial and investment demand [1][2]. - Gold prices have also been supported by multiple factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, strong central bank demand, and increased holdings in exchange-traded funds [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices, which briefly surpassed $80 per ounce, is driven by supply constraints, strong industrial demand, and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Silver Market - Silver has seen a year-to-date increase of 181%, significantly outpacing gold [1] - Factors contributing to silver's rise include its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list, tight supply, low inventories, and growing industrial and investment demand [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have increased by 72% year-to-date, reaching multiple historical highs [1] - The rise in gold prices is influenced by several factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, strong demand from central banks seeking to diversify away from U.S. securities and the dollar, and increased holdings in exchange-traded funds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international prices of gold and silver have reached new highs due to increased safe-haven demand, with gold futures for February 2026 hitting $4,581.30 per ounce and silver futures for March surpassing $79 per ounce, nearing $80 [1] Group 1: Gold Market - The most actively traded gold futures reached a record RSI of 95.94, the highest in history, with the previous second-highest value recorded in January 1980 at 94.69 [1] - Gold prices have surged over 70% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver's RSI reading is at 93.86, the highest since January 1980, indicating strong market momentum [1] - Silver prices have increased by more than 170% year-to-date [1] Group 3: Platinum Market - Platinum futures have also reached historical highs, recently surpassing $2,300 per ounce due to supply constraints [1]

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices reached new highs on the 26th, driven by increased safe-haven demand, with February 2026 gold futures hitting $4581.30 per ounce and March silver futures surpassing $79 per ounce, approaching $80 [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for silver is at 93.86, the highest since January 1980, indicating potential market overextension, as readings above 70 suggest a possible correction [1] - Gold prices have surged over 70% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979, while silver prices have risen more than 170% year-to-date [1] Group 2 - Platinum futures have also reached historical highs, breaking the $2300 per ounce mark due to supply tightness and geopolitical tensions, alongside a weakening dollar [1] - Copper prices on the New York market continue to rise, with a nearly 4% increase on the 26th, reaching $5.7855 per pound, as investors speculate on tightening global copper supply by 2026 [1]