Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government has extended the temporary ban on cobalt exports for an additional three months due to high market inventory levels, impacting all forms of cobalt mining activities within the country [1] Supply Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) dominates the global cobalt supply chain, holding 55% of the world's cobalt reserves, estimated at 6 million tons in 2024, and accounting for 76.4% of the global annual production of 22,000 tons [3] - China, as the largest consumer of cobalt, heavily relies on the DRC, importing 62,000 tons of cobalt intermediate products in 2024, with 62,000 tons coming from the DRC, representing nearly the entire share [3] - The extension of the export ban will directly affect raw material supply from June to December, posing a significant risk of raw material shortages for domestic cobalt refining enterprises in China [3] Price Trends - Cobalt prices have experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from a high of 570,000 yuan per ton in March 2022 to a historical low of 160,000 yuan per ton in February this year [4] - Following the first export ban, electrolytic cobalt prices rebounded to 250,000 yuan per ton but have since stabilized around 230,000 yuan per ton [4] - The current extension of the ban is expected to impact approximately 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC over a seven-month period, which is over 40% of the global annual cobalt production for 2024, potentially shifting the market from oversupply to shortage [4] - On June 23, the price of cobalt surged by 22,000 yuan in a single day, reaching 256,000 yuan per ton, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a decade, with other cobalt products also seeing price increases [4]