中广核矿业(01164)再涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.45%，报3.3港元，成交额2218.23万港元。 国投证券国际近期发布研报称，新交易框架带动中广核矿业未来收入利润齐升。在6月初，公司公告 2026-2028年与中广核集团的关联交易价格框架，新的销售价格从过去三年的40%基价+60%现货价格变 为30%基价+70%现货价格，同时基价从61.78美元/磅、63.94美元/磅、66.17美元/磅，大幅上调至94.22 美元/磅、98.08美元/磅、102.10美元/磅。预计公司未来销售业务营收利润可实现大幅上升。 消息面上，高盛最新研报显示，到2026年底，现货铀价格预计将升至每磅91美元左右，与目前的约76美 元相比，意味着至少有约20%的上涨空间。尽管不同的机制驱动着现货和长期合约市场，但该行认为 2026年这两个市场的价格均面临上行风险，长期合约价格自8月以来已从每磅80美元上涨至86美元。高 盛模型显示，2025年至2035年间，铀的累计供应缺口约为13%，而这一数字在2025年至2045年间将进一 步扩大至32%。 ...

国投证券国际近期发布研报称，新交易框架带动中广核矿业未来收入利润齐升。在6月初，公司公告 2026-2028年与中广核集团的关联交易价格框架，新的销售价格从过去三年的40%基价+60%现货价格变 为30%基价+70%现货价格，同时基价从61.78美元/磅、63.94美元/磅、66.17美元/磅，大幅上调至94.22 美元/磅、98.08美元/磅、102.10美元/磅。预计公司未来销售业务营收利润可实现大幅上升。 消息面上，高盛最新研报显示，到2026年底，现货铀价格预计将升至每磅91美元左右，与目前的约76美 元相比，意味着至少有约20%的上涨空间。尽管不同的机制驱动着现货和长期合约市场，但该行认为 2026年这两个市场的价格均面临上行风险，长期合约价格自8月以来已从每磅80美元上涨至86美元。高 盛模型显示，2025年至2035年间，铀的累计供应缺口约为13%，而这一数字在2025年至2045年间将进一 步扩大至32%。 智通财经APP获悉，中广核矿业(01164)再涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.45%，报3.3港元，成交额2218.23万 港元。 ...

Core Insights - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised its nuclear power capacity forecasts for 2050 for the fifth consecutive year, projecting a capacity of 561 GW in a low scenario and 992 GW in a high scenario [1] - The World Nuclear Association reported a 2.5% increase in global nuclear power generation last year, reaching a record high of 2667 TWh, surpassing the previous record set in 2006 [1] - The growth in nuclear power is primarily driven by the accelerated deployment of small modular reactor technology, although a potential uranium supply gap may hinder nuclear revival due to resource depletion in existing mines over the next decade [1] Nuclear Power Capacity Growth - As of the end of last year, there were 440 operational nuclear reactors globally, an increase of 3 from the previous year, with total nuclear power capacity rising to 398 GW [2] - The number of reactors under construction globally stands at 62, with 9 new reactors started and 7 connected to the grid last year [2] - Over 60% of nuclear power plants maintain a capacity factor above 80%, with the average capacity factor rising to 83%, indicating strong operational performance [2] Regional Growth Trends - The growth in global nuclear power generation over the past decade has been largely driven by developments in Asia, with 5 out of 7 new reactors connected last year located in the region [4] - France has significantly contributed to global nuclear power capacity growth, particularly with the restart of previously offline reactors [4] - The U.S. operates the most reactors globally, with a total capacity of 97 GW, and aims to increase its nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050 [4] Uranium Supply Challenges - The World Nuclear Association forecasts a 33% increase in uranium demand by 2030, reaching 86,000 tons, and 150,000 tons by 2040, while existing uranium production is expected to halve during the same period [6] - The IAEA and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency indicate that current uranium resources can support nuclear power until 2050 and beyond, but significant investment in exploration and mining is required to meet rising demand [6] - The uranium market is facing challenges due to aging mines and lengthy production cycles for new projects, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance [7] Price Outlook - Current uranium spot prices are around $80 per pound, with expectations for prices to rise to $87 per pound by Q4 of this year and potentially reach $100 per pound by 2026 [7]