核电复兴

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世界核能发电创新高 铀供应缺口隐忧凸显
Zhong Guo Chan Ye Jing Ji Xin Xi Wang· 2025-10-09 00:30
无独有偶,世界核协会近日发布最新报告指出,去年全球核能发电量同比增长2.5%至2667太瓦时,打 破2006年2660太瓦时的纪录,创下单年发电量历史新高。全球范围内,核电发展势头日益增强,特别是 受到小型模块化反应堆技术加速部署推动,铀需求前景颇为积极。然而,随着现有矿山在未来10年面临 资源枯竭,铀供应缺口隐现,可能将拖累核电复兴。 核电装机量持续增长 国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·马里亚诺·格罗西表示,当前,全球近40个经济体核电行业处于不同发展 阶段,还有20多个经济体正在探索核电发展。 根据世界核协会《2025世界核能业绩报告》,截至去年底,全球运行中核反应堆共440座,较2023年底 增加3座;全球核电总装机容量398吉瓦,较2023年底392吉瓦增加6吉瓦。去年,全球新开工核反应堆9 座、实现并网7座、永久停运4座。截至去年底,全球在建反应堆总数为62座,较2023年底增加1座。 9月15日至19日,国际原子能机构第69届大会召开,会上发布最新年度报告指出,在低值预测情景中, 到2050年核能发电装机容量将达到561吉瓦;在高值预测情景中,到2050年全球核能发电装机容量将增 至992吉瓦。这是国 ...
AI核电,美国本土造! 纽柯钢铁携手TNC点燃美国核电复兴之火
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 02:00
The Nuclear Company(即TNC)于当地时间上周五晚间公布与美国钢铁生产商纽柯钢铁(NUE.US)所达成 的战略合作,旨在大幅提振美国核能和核电系统供应链,并以更加庞大的核电系统支持美国国内制造业 以及AI训练/推理系统所需的几乎无止境电力资源。 TNC在声明中表示,该合作将支持美国总统特朗普此前的一项行政命令——到2050年实现400吉瓦核电 装机目标,其中包括未来五年建设10 座超大型核反应堆。 这次TNC与纽柯钢铁的强强联手,本质是奠定与强化美国核电系统复兴的"制造与质量基座":用美国本 土、可认证、可复制的核级钢与制造体系,给大堆改造与SMR扩张解锁供给、压缩不确定性、降低资 本化成本。对正高强度"斥巨资买核电"的OpenAI、META以及微软等超级AI/云计算巨头而言,它不直 接等于新增核电机组,但却是把长期、稳定、逐时零碳真的落到它们核电表上的必要前置条件。 AI尽头是电力! 电力中当属核电需求最火爆 史无前例的大型数据中心建设与扩建热潮正把全美电网电力需求推向20年来从未见的水平。PJM Interconnection近期发布的一份预测报告显示,未来15年(即到2035年),夏季 ...
世界核能发电创新高,铀供应缺口隐忧凸显
中国能源报· 2025-09-22 01:49
全球范围内,核电发展势头日益增强,特别是受到小型模块化反应堆技术加速部署推动,铀需求前景颇为积极。然而,随着现有矿山 在未来10年面临资源枯竭,铀供应缺口隐现,可能将拖累核电复兴。 根据世界核协会《20 25世界核能业绩报告》,截至去年底,全球运行中核反应堆共440座,较2023年底增加3座;全球核电总装机容量 398吉瓦,较2023年底392吉瓦增加6吉瓦。去年,全球新开工核反应堆9座、实现并网7座、永久停运4座。截至去年底,全球在建反应 堆总数为62座,较20 23年底增加1座。 去年,全球实际发电核反应堆410座,实际发电总装机容量369吉瓦,较2 023年增加1吉瓦。截至去年底,日本有19吉瓦装机量、印度 有不足1吉瓦装机量处于暂停运行状态,另有11吉瓦运行中反应堆未发电。 值得一提的是,全球超过60%的核电机组的容量因子维持在80%以上,去年平均容量因数同比增长至83%,延续了2000年以来的高容量 因数趋势,这意味着核电机组运行业绩并未随运行年限增加而下降。 容量因数是衡量发电设施实际发电效率的指标,为机组全年实际发电量与理论最大发电量的比值。世界核协会指出,暂未观察到容量因 数随反应堆服役年限增 ...
美国关税重大调整! 特朗普宣布豁免黄金、钨以及铀全球关税
智通财经网· 2025-09-06 04:41
Core Points - The article discusses significant tariff adjustments made by President Trump, exempting graphite, tungsten, uranium, gold bars, and other metals from the U.S. government's global tariff policy while including silicone products in the taxable category [1][2] - The adjustments are aimed at facilitating trade agreements with other countries and streamlining the process for implementing tariff changes without requiring new executive orders for each agreement [2][3] - The exemptions for gold, tungsten, and uranium are strategically important for financial stability, manufacturing, defense, and energy security, as they are critical materials that could impact key U.S. industries if subjected to tariffs [4][5] Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and the Department of Commerce are now authorized to implement framework trade agreements with countries like the EU, Japan, and South Korea, reducing the need for Trump to issue new executive orders for each tariff change [2][3] - The exemptions include key materials used in aerospace, consumer electronics, and medical devices, which are vital for various technological sectors [3][4] - The decision to exempt these materials aligns with the goal of maintaining the resilience of critical domestic industries and ensuring national security [4][5] Group 2 - Tungsten is crucial for the U.S. military industry, particularly in high-performance weaponry, and is heavily reliant on imports due to its unique physical properties [5] - Uranium is essential for nuclear energy production, which is a focus of Trump's administration, as it aims to revitalize the U.S. nuclear power sector [5] - The adjustments reflect a broader strategy to address trade imbalances and enhance the competitiveness of U.S. industries while ensuring access to critical materials [2][4]
中国铀业上市背后的全球核博弈
投中网· 2025-08-19 06:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex geopolitical dynamics surrounding uranium resources, emphasizing the strategic importance of uranium enrichment technology and its implications for global power relations, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the historical "Megatons to Megawatts" agreement between the U.S. and Russia [6][8][15]. Geopolitical Context - The "Megatons to Megawatts" agreement allowed Russia to convert 500 tons of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium into low-enriched uranium, supplying the U.S. with 50% of its nuclear power fuel from 1993 to 2013, generating $13 billion for Russia [6]. - The U.S. has become increasingly dependent on Russian uranium, with Russian exports to the U.S. rising to 510,000 tons from 2011 to 2020, accounting for over 20% of the U.S. market share [12]. - European countries also heavily rely on Russian uranium, with some nations depending on it for 40%-60% of their nuclear power generation [14]. Uranium Supply and Demand - China imports approximately 60% of its uranium from Kazakhstan and 30% from Namibia, with increasing reliance on Russian uranium in recent years [15]. - The global uranium supply is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, as seen in the case of Niger, which has threatened to cut uranium supplies to France following a coup [19][21]. Financial Dynamics - The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) has been active in the uranium market, purchasing over 700 tons of uranium in June 2023, which led to a 12.7% increase in spot prices [22]. - The World Bank's recent decision to lift the ban on nuclear project financing is expected to stimulate capital inflow into the uranium sector, reflecting a growing recognition of nuclear power's role in energy security [25][28]. China's Uranium Strategy - China aims to increase its nuclear power capacity significantly by 2035, necessitating a rise in uranium demand [31]. - The China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) is focusing on expanding its uranium production capabilities both domestically and internationally, with plans to enhance its control over uranium resources [32][34]. - The IPO of China Uranium Industry is seen as a strategic move to leverage capital markets for expanding uranium mining operations [34].
华源证券:政策催化与地缘脱钩共振 推动浓缩铀环节战略价值重估
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 02:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "de-Russification" policies in Europe and the United States are creating restructuring opportunities in the nuclear power industry, particularly in the demand for enrichment services [1][2]. - The global supply of enriched uranium is highly concentrated, and the geopolitical restructuring is leading to structural opportunities, with non-Russian suppliers like Urenco and Orano experiencing increased orders and prices [2][3]. - The commercialization of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and the increase in enrichment concentration are expected to significantly boost the demand for Separative Work Units (SWU), with HALEU requiring substantially more SWU compared to conventional LEU [3][4]. Group 2 - The U.S. government is accelerating the reconstruction of its domestic uranium supply chain through various legislative and administrative measures, with Centrus positioned as a key beneficiary due to its capabilities in HALEU production [4]. - The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 allocated $700 million to support HALEU supply plans, and an additional $2.7 billion is earmarked for expanding LEU and HALEU production capacity in 2024 [4]. - Centrus has received multiple contracts from the Department of Energy (DOE) and is restarting centrifuge manufacturing, aligning closely with U.S. policy directions for nuclear fuel self-sufficiency [4].
A股重磅!“国家队”,再度出手!中概股,全线上涨!
券商中国· 2025-07-22 23:22
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing investment in controlled nuclear fusion by China's national team, emphasizing the strategic importance of this sector for future energy solutions and environmental goals [1][5][6]. Investment and Company Formation - On July 22, China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was officially established in Shanghai, with significant participation from key government and industry leaders [2]. - China National Nuclear Power Co. plans to invest 1 billion yuan in the fusion company, acquiring a 6.65% stake, as part of a broader investment of approximately 11.49 billion yuan from multiple entities [3][4]. Financial Overview - As of December 31, 2024, the fusion company reported total assets of 611.56 million yuan and a net loss of 202.60 million yuan. By June 30, 2025, total assets are projected to be 5.37 billion yuan with a reduced net loss of 43.26 million yuan [4]. Strategic Importance - The investment aligns with national strategies for energy transition and aims to solidify the central enterprises' leading role in the nuclear fusion industry, supporting the commercialization of fusion technology [5][6]. Industry Development - Controlled nuclear fusion is recognized as a key solution for global energy challenges and is a focal point of technological competition among nations. China has integrated support for this industry into its top-level design, with various policies promoting research and development [7][8]. - The global investment in the fusion sector is projected to reach approximately 1.74 billion USD by 2024, with significant contributions from China and the U.S. [9]. Nuclear Power Expansion - The Chinese government has approved several new nuclear power projects, maintaining a steady pace of approvals, which is expected to continue supporting the growth of nuclear energy as a clean power source [10][11]. - The demand for natural uranium is anticipated to grow at an annual rate of over 4% from 2024 to 2040, indicating a tightening supply situation that could benefit companies in the uranium sector [12].
中广核矿业(01164.HK):全球核电复苏下的铀资源核心资产 新长协定价机制抬升业绩预期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-12 19:22
Group 1 - The company, China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN), is the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia, backed by CGN Group, which provides a stable platform for overseas uranium resource development and financing [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds a total of approximately 34,000 tons of uranium resources from four uranium mines in Kazakhstan, utilizing in-situ leaching methods with lower mining costs than the global average [1] - The company has a stable financial structure, maintaining a debt-to-asset ratio below 50% over the past two years, and is expected to benefit from the injection of high-quality assets from CGN Group in the future [1][2] Group 2 - The company has established a robust profit model through a dual approach of self-production and international trade, with a pricing mechanism linked to spot prices, allowing for profit expansion as uranium prices rise [2] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of HKD 8.624 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 342 million, despite some impacts from tax rate adjustments [2] - The new sales agreements are expected to elevate profit margins, with a pricing mechanism that increasingly reflects market conditions [2] Group 3 - The global nuclear power revival is accelerating, with the World Nuclear Association (WNA) predicting an average annual compound growth of over 4% in natural uranium demand from 2024 to 2040 [3] - The supply-demand gap for uranium is expected to widen in the medium to long term due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments since 2015, leading to a tightening supply trend [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated high uranium prices, supported by its low-cost structure and abundant resources [3] Group 4 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of HKD 573 million, HKD 942 million, and HKD 1.183 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant year-on-year growth [3] - The company’s projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average PE of 29X for comparable companies in the US [3]
中广核矿业(01164):全球核电复苏下的铀资源核心资产,新长协定价机制抬升业绩预期
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-11 08:31
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core asset in uranium resources, benefiting from the global nuclear power recovery and a new long-term pricing mechanism that enhances performance expectations [5]. - Backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, the company has a leading global resource layout and long-term growth potential, being the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia [5][10]. - The company has a dual-driven model of "self-produced + international trade," which stabilizes growth and profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is HKD 2.26, with a market capitalization of HKD 17,177.54 million [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 86.24 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 3.42 billion [6][21]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 5.73 billion, HKD 9.42 billion, and HKD 11.83 billion, reflecting growth rates of 67.5%, 64.4%, and 25.6% respectively [8][10]. Business Model - The business model consists of self-produced trade and international trade, with the international trade segment providing stable profit through price differences [19]. - The company holds a 49% equity stake in several uranium mines in Kazakhstan, ensuring a stable supply and cost advantage [5][41]. Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing mechanism for 2026-2028 includes a base price (BP) and spot price (SP) structure, with BP set to increase annually, enhancing profit margins [6][49]. Market Outlook - The global nuclear power revival is expected to drive uranium demand, with an average annual growth rate of over 4% from 2024 to 2040 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply of uranium due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments [7]. Valuation - The company’s projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average of 29X, indicating potential undervaluation [10].
中广核矿业(01164):深度报告:签订新销售框架协议,充分受益铀价上行
China Post Securities· 2025-06-10 05:28
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company is entering a fast development phase, being the only platform for overseas uranium resource development under China General Nuclear Power Group, with significant revenue growth following acquisitions [2]. - The company benefits from strong internal demand for nuclear power and has a cost advantage due to its mining operations, with projected sales volumes increasing significantly in the coming years [2]. - The uranium market is expected to remain tight due to geopolitical conflicts and recovering nuclear power demand, with a forecasted supply growth of approximately 8.51% in 2024 and 6.03% in 2025 [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 84.46 billion, 96.48 billion, and 99.72 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.20 billion, 9.22 billion, and 10.53 billion HKD [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 2001 and is the sole platform for overseas uranium resource development under China General Nuclear Power Group, with significant acquisitions enhancing its market position [6]. - The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a majority stake held by China General Nuclear Power Group [11]. Section 2: Uranium Industry - The uranium industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with long-term demand expected to outstrip supply due to increasing nuclear power installations and geopolitical factors [33][47]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expected recovery in nuclear power demand, with significant growth in uranium prices anticipated [40][44]. Section 3: Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue and profit growth over the next three years, with a corresponding increase in earnings per share [49]. - The forecasted earnings reflect a strong recovery in uranium prices and increased production volumes from the company's mining operations [49].