Group 1 - The company maintains a constructive stance on uranium prices due to strong demand from nuclear power and uncertain supply from new mines [1] - Earnings forecasts for 2026E-27E have been revised up by 9-11% based on higher uranium spot price assumptions [1] - The new NPV-based target price has been increased to HK$3.67 from HK$2.42, reflecting expectations of continued recovery in uranium prices [1] Group 2 - Uranium spot price forecasts for 2026E and 2027E have been raised by 9% to US$90 and US$93 per pound respectively [1] - Earnings growth is estimated at 235% YoY in 2026E and 19% in 2027E, driven by new off-take agreements and low base effects [1] - Long-term uranium price assumptions have been revised up from US$96 to US$120 per pound starting from 2031E [1] Group 3 - The multiple for NPV has been increased to 3.5x from 3x, indicating a higher likelihood of resource conversion to reserves due to rising uranium prices [1]

Group 1 - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net investment income for H1 2025, with revenue at 1.709 billion HKD, down 58.4% year-on-year, and a net loss of 68 million HKD, marking a shift from profit to loss [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to the international trade of natural uranium experiencing price volatility, leading to a decrease in gross profit due to inventory accounting methods and a drop in investment income from associated companies [1] - The company achieved a uranium production of 1,354.7 tons U, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with a production completion rate of 110.5%, while mining costs decreased year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The world's largest uranium mining company, Kazatomprom, has revised its 2026 production guidance down by approximately 9.4% to 29,697 tons U, emphasizing a strategy focused on long-term market value rather than volume growth [2] - Kazatomprom's decision to lower production is expected to positively impact uranium prices, as the company holds a significant market share, accounting for 43% of global natural uranium production in 2022 [2] Group 3 - A new sales framework agreement has been approved, which will increase the baseline price for uranium sales from 61.78 to 94.22 USD per pound U3O8 starting in 2026, enhancing the company's earnings elasticity [3] - The new agreement anticipates a significant increase in contracted uranium sales volumes for the years 2026-2028 compared to 2024, with additional buffer provisions for potential resource increases [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the new pricing mechanism and the anticipated rise in uranium prices, leading to accelerated earnings growth starting in 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 was under pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net investment income, leading to a loss of 0.68 billion HKD compared to a profit in the previous year [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to fluctuations in international trade contract prices for natural uranium and a drop in uranium prices, which negatively impacted investment income from associated companies [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a new sales framework agreement approved by shareholders, which will enhance revenue starting in 2026 due to increased pricing and sales volume [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.709 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 58.4%, and a net investment income of 306 million HKD, down 31.5% [1]. - The company recorded a loss of 68 million HKD, reversing from a profit in the previous year [1]. Production and Cost Management - The company achieved a natural uranium production of 1,354.7 tons in H1 2025, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, with a production completion rate of 110.5% [2]. - The average production costs for the associated mines varied, with some showing increases while others decreased, indicating mixed cost management outcomes [2]. Market Outlook - The largest uranium mining company, Kazatomprom, plans to reduce its production guidance for 2026, which is expected to positively impact uranium prices due to supply-demand alignment [3]. - The new sales framework agreement will adjust the baseline price for uranium sales from 61.78 to 94.22 USD per pound, enhancing the company's revenue potential starting in 2026 [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit for the company is expected to rise significantly from 387 million HKD in 2025 to 996 million HKD in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 157.6% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.05 HKD in 2025 to 0.13 HKD in 2026, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 53 to 21 [5].

Group 1 - The company, China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN), is the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia, backed by CGN Group, which provides a stable platform for overseas uranium resource development and financing [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds a total of approximately 34,000 tons of uranium resources from four uranium mines in Kazakhstan, utilizing in-situ leaching methods with lower mining costs than the global average [1] - The company has a stable financial structure, maintaining a debt-to-asset ratio below 50% over the past two years, and is expected to benefit from the injection of high-quality assets from CGN Group in the future [1][2] Group 2 - The company has established a robust profit model through a dual approach of self-production and international trade, with a pricing mechanism linked to spot prices, allowing for profit expansion as uranium prices rise [2] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of HKD 8.624 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 342 million, despite some impacts from tax rate adjustments [2] - The new sales agreements are expected to elevate profit margins, with a pricing mechanism that increasingly reflects market conditions [2] Group 3 - The global nuclear power revival is accelerating, with the World Nuclear Association (WNA) predicting an average annual compound growth of over 4% in natural uranium demand from 2024 to 2040 [3] - The supply-demand gap for uranium is expected to widen in the medium to long term due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments since 2015, leading to a tightening supply trend [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated high uranium prices, supported by its low-cost structure and abundant resources [3] Group 4 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of HKD 573 million, HKD 942 million, and HKD 1.183 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant year-on-year growth [3] - The company’s projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average PE of 29X for comparable companies in the US [3]

以下文章来源于中金点睛 ，作者张家铭齐丁陈彦 中金点睛 . 图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告 中金研究 我们看好铀价长期上行的趋势性机会，短期催化剂的兑现有望进一步加速铀价上涨。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 天然铀价格在年初冲高后持续了半年有余的震荡行情，这使市场对于铀价走势存在广泛的疑虑和分歧。本篇报告我们主要聚焦三大问题，对市场关注的主 要问题进行研究和解答： 一是历史，即如何理解过去的铀价走势？ 我们对历史上的铀价走势进行复盘，认为铀价走势主要取决于供需两侧以及金融机构和实物库存等主要影响因 素。回顾过去二十年，铀价经历了2005-2007年实物供需与金融属性共振的历史性上涨，最高达到138美元/磅，之后经历金融危机、福岛核事故等事件冲 击后趋势性回落。2016年开始，全球核电复苏与铀矿供给出清带动铀价温和上涨，直到2023年8月，尼日尔铀加工厂停产、主要铀矿商产量不及预期、美 国浓缩铀的进口禁令共同推动铀价的加速上涨。 二是未来，为什么我们看好铀价长期上行？ 核心逻辑是需求端全球核电复苏带来持续的需求增量，以及供给端铀矿受到供给刚性强和资本开支低的约 束。一是本轮全球核电需求复苏大势所 ...