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美银:别再迷信60/40股债组合!未来十年实际收益或为负,黄金看至4500美元
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-11 07:45
Group 1: Core Insights - The classic "60/40" stock-bond portfolio strategy is projected to face extremely weak returns over the next decade, with an expected annualized real return of -0.1% after inflation [1] - The main reason for this bleak outlook is the anticipated decline in the performance of U.S. large-cap stocks, which have seen over 15% growth for three consecutive years [1] - Investors are advised to adjust their positions and consider "satellite" assets outside the consensus, including international small and mid-cap stocks, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and gold [1] Group 2: Equity Assets - The report highlights international small and mid-cap stocks as a favorable investment, noting a 15% annualized return over the past five years, comparable to U.S. large-cap growth stocks [2] - Quality U.S. stocks, characterized by strong financial health and low debt levels, are also recommended, as they have consistently outperformed other major style factors since 1996 [2] Group 3: Fixed Income - In fixed income, high-yield bonds are seen as offering the best opportunities, with a current default rate of approximately 2.6%, lower than private credit and syndicated loans [5] - Emerging market fixed income has outperformed U.S. and global bonds over the past three years, with annualized returns of 9% to 12% for portfolios including high-dividend emerging market stocks [5] Group 4: Physical Assets and Thematic Investments - Gold is expected to rebound to $4,538 per ounce next year, representing an 8% increase from current levels, driven by strong global central bank demand and rising fiscal deficits [7] - Thematic investment opportunities include artificial intelligence and technology, U.S. industrial revival, and uranium resources, which are projected to have long-term growth potential [10]
港股午评 恒生指数早盘跌0.25% 中广核矿业逆市大涨7%
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-05 05:08
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.25%, down 63 points, closing at 25,872 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.20% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with expectations of rising industry prosperity due to increasing Fed rate cut expectations. Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose over 5%, Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by 4%, China Aluminum (02600) gained 4.3%, and Liken Resources (02245) surged over 5% [1] - CGN Mining (01164) saw a rise of over 7%, driven by a significant increase in uranium prices in the US stock market, with Morgan Stanley optimistic about the company's stock price rising within 15 days [1] - Reformed Energy (02570) jumped over 9% ahead of a stock unlock next Monday, focusing on hydrogen fuel cell systems [1] Group 2 - InnoCare Pharma (02577) increased by over 6% after reaching a strategic cooperation with Onsemi, with institutions optimistic about GaN as a new direction for robotics [2] - Goldwind Technology (02208) rose over 6% during the session, with expectations of high growth in installations during the peak season, and domestic wind power installations expected to reach new heights during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 3 - Nanjing Panda Electronics (00553) rose by 6% as the 2025 Brain-Computer Interface Conference opened, marking a critical stage for domestic clinical transformation [3] Group 4 - China Oriental Group (00581) increased by 5% after investing approximately 52 million yuan to increase its stake in Jiangsu Shentong [4] Group 5 - Shenzhou International (02313) fell over 4% as institutions lowered the company's sales growth forecast for the second half of the year, with production release expected to continue reflecting in the following year [5] Group 6 - The related stocks of Moore Threads saw a decline, with Dazhong Public Utilities (01635) dropping over 7% [6] - Innovent Biologics (01801) fell over 2% after completing a global strategic cooperation with Takeda Pharmaceutical, raising approximately 777 million HKD through the issuance of 6.9138 million shares [6]