Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for ferroalloys has gradually increased in the short term, but the upward space may be limited due to weak downstream steel terminal demand and high plate inventory pressure [2]. - The supply - side pressure of ferroalloys is relatively small currently. Although the production may gradually increase later, the demand support is limited, and the inventory pressure of silicomanganese is relatively large [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - Supply side: The production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The production may gradually increase later with improved profits and rising hot metal, but the current supply pressure is not large. Ferrosilicon production increased by 0.93% month - on - month, and silicomanganese production decreased by 0.92% month - on - month [2]. - Demand side: Hot metal declined during the Two Sessions and will recover next week. With the steel mill profitability rate at about 40%, the possibility of significant production increase is low. The demand for ferroalloys has certain support but may be limited, and steel tenders need to be further observed [2]. - Inventory side: Ferrosilicon inventory is neutral, with an inventory of 61,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.71%. Silicomanganese inventory is 375,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%, but it is still at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, with relatively large de - stocking pressure [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound and slightly bullish. - Price range: The price of the ferrosilicon 05 contract is between 5,600 - 6,400, and that of the silicomanganese 05 contract is between 5,900 - 6,500 [7]. - Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies: All are recommended to wait and see [7][8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The monthly price range of ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, and that of silicomanganese is 5,300 - 6,000 [8]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, short - sell ferroalloy futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy ferroalloy futures to lock in procurement costs [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Rising crude oil prices drive up coking coal, increasing the cost support for ferroalloys. Hot metal supports the demand for ferroalloys [10][11]. - Bearish information: Ferroalloy production is in a loss, maintaining a low - production strategy. Silicomanganese has a high inventory base and large de - stocking pressure. Downstream steel consumption is average [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On Monday, China will announce the year - on - year growth rates of social consumer goods retail sales and industrial added value from January to February. - On Wednesday, the US will announce the PPI for February. - On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve will announce the upper limit of the interest rate decision, and the US will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week [17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation The report provides price - volume and capital trend charts for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, including closing prices, positions, basis, and spread structures [18][19][20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain The report analyzes the production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, market prices, production costs, electricity prices, coking coal inventory, and manganese ore prices [36][37][38]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The relationship between ferrosilicon export profit and export volume is analyzed [62]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply side: Ferroalloy production profits have marginally improved but are still in a loss. Production is expected to fluctuate slightly at the current level and gradually increase. - Demand side: Steel mills have the motivation to resume production, and the rising hot metal output supports the demand for ferroalloys. - Inventory side: Ferroalloy inventory is at a high level, especially silicomanganese, and de - stocking may require production cuts [63]. 5.2 Supply Side and Deduction The production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is related to production profits and hot metal output, and the future production trends are predicted [67][68][69]. 5.3 Demand Side and Deduction The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is related to hot metal output, steel mill profitability, and downstream product production profits. The future demand trends are predicted [76][77][78]. 5.4 Inventory Side and Deduction The report predicts the future trends of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprise inventories, warehouse receipt quantities, and total inventories [92][93][94].