1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, the output showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The inventory was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, suppressing the absolute price. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. - For industrial silicon, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation [24]. - The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.7444 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 29747 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output of rebar showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 178826 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. The main contract position was 1.5177 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 9222 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.63% (- 5.00). The position changed by - 6440 lots, reaching 564,600 lots. The weighted position was 920,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.70% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 28th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.24% intraday, closing at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.50% intraday, closing at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push (manganese ore for manganese silicon) or supply - contraction (due to losses or "dual - carbon" policy for ferrosilicon) factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 28th, coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 1.61% intraday, closing at 1134.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 1398.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 264 yuan/ton over the futures price. Coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.96% intraday, closing at 1684.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.13% (- 100). The weighted contract position changed by - 8748 lots, reaching 376349 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 50805 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.11% (- 1095). The weighted contract position changed by - 1108 lots, reaching 74886 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1695 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1067 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1). The North China large - plate price was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million cases, up 202,800 cases (+ 0.38%) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1158 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (- 0.38%) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].