Report 1: Steel Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market has neutral supply - demand with no prominent contradictions. The future trend of the black market depends on the coking coal supply. With prices rising to the upper limit of the range, the game intensifies. For long positions, attention should be paid to the previous high - pressure levels (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils) and appropriate reduction of positions can be considered. Also, pay attention to the coking coal supply. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be held [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar 01 contract rose from 3091 to 3133 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan, while plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different changes, with some decreasing [2]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decline of 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a rise of 1.0%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also increased, with rebar production rising by 5.9 to 207.1 (a 2.9% increase) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1 (a 3.0% decrease), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.3 to 414.9 (a 1.0% decrease) [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, a rise of 10.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a rise of 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [2]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures reached the peak and then declined. Although the macro situation is slightly positive after the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the decline in pig iron output still suppresses iron ore. After several days of rebound, the driving force of iron ore weakens. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see, with the reference range of 760 - 830. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 844.0, a decline of 0.8%. Some basis values and spreads also changed [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased, like Carajás fines decreased by 6.0 to 920.0, a decline of 0.6%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Jinshi 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decline of 19.5%, while the global shipping volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a rise of 1.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, a rise of 10.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decline of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 14311.15, a decline of 0.8%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a rise of 1.1% [4]. Report 3: Coke Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. For speculation, it is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low levels, with the reference range of 1700 - 1850. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low levels, with the reference range of 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage can be carried out, but pay attention to risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Some coke prices showed different changes. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 15 to 1787, a decline of 0.8%. The basis values also changed [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of some coking coal varieties increased, such as Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 36 to 1380, a rise of 2.7%. The 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 14 to 1288, a decline of 1.1% [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, a rise of 0.2%. The output of some coking coal mines increased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The demand for coke is affected by the decline in pig iron output [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, a rise of 0.9%. Steel mills reduced inventory, while coking plants and ports increased inventory. Coking coal inventory: Some inventories increased, while some decreased, with the overall inventory slightly decreasing [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for multiple futures varieties, including "cautiously bullish" for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, and "bullish" for coke and coking coal [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Macro factors provide short - term support, and steel products are expected to be strong in the short term. Rebar's supply - demand is weak, but it may be boosted by new regulations and production control. Hot - rolled coil's supply is high, but it may be strengthened by policies [2][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the static fundamentals are neutral to weak, due to the easing of Sino - US relations and positive macro factors, the iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. - **Coke**: After the second round of price increases is fully implemented and the third round is on the way, coke is expected to follow the coking coal price and be strong in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is affected by safety inspections and other factors, and imports may be tightened. With high iron - water production, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions should be held [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon's cost provides some support, and ferrosilicon is expected to follow the coal price. Both are cautiously bullish [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Weekly production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory has decreased. Supply and demand are lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, and the inventory reduction speed is average. The upward driving force is limited. New regulations on capacity replacement and regional production control may boost it, and it may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years. Steel supply is at a high level, but it may be strengthened by policies in the short term [4][5]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices such as rebar 01 are 3133 (up 42), and spot prices like Tangshan billet are 3000 (up 20). There are also details about basis, price differences, and profit margins [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - water production has decreased, and steel mills and ports have increased inventory. Outer - mine shipments have increased, but arrivals have decreased significantly. Steel - enterprise profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are neutral to weak. - **Price Movement**: Affected by positive macro factors, the iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term. Futures prices such as iron ore 01 are 802 (up 12), and there are also details about spot prices, price differences, and freight rates [6][8]. 3.3 Coke - **Market Dynamics**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is in progress. Coke - steel game is obvious. Coke - enterprise profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in losses. Steel - mill inventory is low, and some steel mills are replenishing inventory. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to follow the coking coal price and be strong in the short term. There are details about futures prices, basis, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10][11]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Supply and Demand**: Coal - mine production has decreased month - on - month. Supply is affected by safety inspections and over - production verifications, and imports may be tightened. Iron - water production is high, and demand is guaranteed. The supply - demand pattern has become tight. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions should be held. There are details about futures prices, basis, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and utilization rates [14][15]. 3.5 Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Production area supply is at a high level. After the new round of replenishment demand from downstream steel procurement is released, inventory reduction in production areas becomes more difficult. The cost provides some support in the short term, and it is cautiously bullish [19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply and demand have weakened, enterprise inventory has decreased. It is expected to follow the coal price and be strong in the short term, and it is cautiously bullish. There are details about futures prices, spot prices, basis, and weekly data such as production and inventory [18][19][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain volatile. Steel prices may face pressure before the holiday and could decline after the holiday, but there is a possibility of an increase if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and other factors will also affect the market [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. In the medium term, due to policy disturbances on the supply side, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is advised regarding the upside potential [8][10]. - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, and market expectations are fluctuating [11][13]. - The ferroalloy market is driven by overall commodity sentiment and cost in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Related Information**: The US will impose new high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, and Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners. Shanghai's rebar price is 3290 yuan (+10), and Beijing's is 3190 yuan; Shanghai's hot - rolled coil price is 3400 yuan, and Tianjin's is 3330 yuan [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend at night. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 10820 tons. Five major steel products increased in production overall, with a decrease in hot - rolled coils. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils weakened, while that for rebar continued to recover. Steel inventories have reached an inflection point and are starting to decline. However, there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday, and there may be a risk of decline after the holiday, but there is also a chance of price increase if demand recovers beyond expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; for the arbitrage strategy, continue to hold the long 1 - 5 spread and the short hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, a 1.8% increase. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal increased, and the inventory decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased. The prices of coke and coking coal warehouse receipts are provided [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has digested the pre - holiday raw material replenishment logic. The spot market for coking coal is rising, and coke enterprises are proposing a price increase. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can provide some supply. The demand for steel restricts the upside of raw material prices [8][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, it is a wide - range volatile market in the short term, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, try to enter the long coking coal 1 - 5 spread at low prices; for the options and spot - futures strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US Q2 GDP final value increased by 3.8% annually, and the US will impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1. The real - estate bond financing in August decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. The prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port are provided [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price dropped slightly at night. The mainstream mines improved in the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas demand remained high. The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels [11][13]. - **Trading Strategies**: No specific trading strategies are clearly provided in the text, only a note that the views are for reference only [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: The November 2025 quotes of overseas manganese mines to China increased. On the 25th, the silicon - iron spot price was stable, and the manganese - silicon and manganese - ore spot prices were slightly weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is high, and the short - term negative feedback risk has eased. For manganese - silicon, the supply is high, and the demand is stable. The cost of manganese - ore is rising, but the upside is limited by high supply [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, it is strong in the short term but limited by high supply; for the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see; for the options strategy, sell the straddle option combination [15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices may continue to decline. [3] - The supply and demand contradictions of iron ore are not prominent for the moment, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrous alloys have dropped rapidly. In the short - term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The fundamental problems of over - supply in the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron industries remain. [7][8][9] - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and is expected to have high - volatility. [12][13][14] - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price of soda ash may gradually rise, but the increase is limited. [16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Analysis**: The export volume of steel increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.33% (-10.50), and the position changed to 45.29 million hands. The weighted position was 80.85 million hands. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08%. [5] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipping was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The recent arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased slightly. [6] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On August 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.61% at 5862 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.42% at 5656 yuan/ton. [7] - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferrous alloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There were no obvious fundamental contradictions in silicon iron, and supply also continued to increase. [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.84% (-160). The weighted contract position changed to 526046 hands. [11] - **Market Analysis**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained. Production continued to rise, and the support from the demand side was limited. It was expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50985 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.15% (-595). The weighted contract position changed to 320439 hands. [13] - **Market Analysis**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It was expected to have high - volatility. [14] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price in Shahe was 1138 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, up 180,000 heavy boxes (0.28%) from the previous period. [16] - **Market Analysis**: The production of glass remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. The price adjustment space was limited, and the market expected policy support. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [16] - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of soda ash was 1200 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons (1.19%) from last Thursday. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The price of soda ash fluctuated with the coal - chemical sector. The downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase was limited. [17]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on coking coal and coke futures released by Dayue Futures on July 15, 2025, providing market analysis and price trends [1][2][6] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines have reduced their production due to safety inspections. With positive expectations in the coke market, the demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines are actively destocking. The prices of some scarce and high - cost - effective coal types are stable after the increase, and there may be a further price increase. The downstream steel and coke enterprises have low inventories and strong replenishment demand. In the short term, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Currently, coke enterprises have thin profits, with some in losses and still in a production - restricted state. However, the demand from steel mills is strong, and intermediate speculative traders are actively purchasing. Coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and their inventories are rapidly decreasing, resulting in a tight supply. In the short term, coke prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines' production has declined due to safety inspections. The demand is good, and coal mines are destocking. There may be a price increase for some coal types [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 940, and the basis is 20, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2] - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2] - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2] - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Coke enterprises have thin profits, some are in losses and restricting production. The demand from steel mills is good, and inventories are decreasing rapidly [6] - **Basis**: The spot price is 1420, and the basis is - 99.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6] - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6] - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] 2. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [4] - **Negative**: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [4] - **Coke** - **Positive**: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8] - **Negative**: The squeeze on the profit margin of steel mills and the partial over - exhaustion of replenishment demand [8] 3. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on July 14, 2025, including various coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal, along with price changes [9] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18] - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24] 5. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35] - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to supply constraints and increased demand from steel and coke enterprises, with the main futures contract reaching 840.0 yuan/ton, up 2.75% [1]. Supply and Production - A major coal mine in Changzhi is undergoing maintenance from June 28 to July 12, affecting a total of 375,000 tons of raw coal production [2]. - The overall coal supply is gradually recovering as some previously reduced or suspended coal mines in the Ordos region are resuming production [2]. Market Pricing - On July 1, the auction price for low-sulfur coke coal in the Qinyuan market increased slightly, with a starting price of 1,100 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 1,128 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5 yuan/ton increase from the previous auction [2]. Industry Insights - Xinyi Futures notes that the inventory at mines is showing signs of a turning point, with steel and coke enterprises slightly exceeding expectations in restocking, leading to a recovery in the coal supply-demand structure [3]. - Yide Futures highlights that the fourth round of price reductions for coke has compressed profit margins for coke enterprises, while the supply of coke is declining. However, the demand from steel mills remains resilient, supporting the raw material needs [3]. - The overall market for coking coal is improving, with a notable decrease in the rate of unsold auction lots and increased purchasing activity from intermediate washing plants and traders [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is entering a period of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. It is necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profits [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the near - month non - main contracts have rebounded, and there are safety inspection voices in the main production areas. The short - term may see a rebound, while the medium - term strategy is still high - selling [6]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are under pressure due to macro - level negatives. Their prices are expected to be mainly under pressure [7]. - For iron ore, the off - season effect is gradually being realized, and there is still room for the price to fall [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2905 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan (-2.12%); HC2601 at 3045 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%); J2601 at 658.5 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan (-1.42%); JM2601 at 735.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-3.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-1.18%); HC2510 at 3052 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.04%); J2509 at 695.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (-1.14%); JM2509 at 719 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan (-3.03%) [2]. - **Spreads**: On June 3rd, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 was 23 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 was 17 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; J2509 - 2601 was - 23.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM2509 - 2601 was - 16.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan, up 9 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.21, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.81, up 0.01; the rebar disk profit was <73.18, down 17.78; the coking disk profit was 342.73, up 0.31 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, Shanghai rebar was 3080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 96.3, down 0.5. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Rizhao Port: PB was 728 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: On June 3rd, the basis of HC main contract was 108 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; RB main contract was 152 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; I main contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract was 252.13 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; JM main contract was 216 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. Macro - environment is uncertain, and there may be a short - term policy vacuum. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse market expectations, but relevant information is lacking. It is necessary to maintain the idea of selling hedging or spot pre - sale [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to fall, and the futures black - chain index is at a new low. The 07 contract of coking coal has increased in position and price, and safety inspections are reported in the main production areas. The market is affected by overseas tariffs, and the cost curve of coking coal is unclear. Short - term rebound may occur, and medium - term high - selling opportunities can be focused on [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron has reduced supply, weakened direct and terminal demand, and weakened cost support. Manganese silicon has a relatively balanced supply - demand situation, but supply may increase marginally, and costs are also moving down. Both are under price pressure [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Ore shipments are gradually recovering, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. Steel demand is weakening seasonally, and iron water production is declining. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit on iron water production and the stability of steel exports [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, do well in hedging and open - position management, and conduct appropriate inventory rotation. For arbitrage positions, the coil - to - rebar spread has temporarily stopped losing [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term may see a rebound, and the medium - term strategy is high - selling [9]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Short - sell on rallies due to the repeated Sino - US trade negotiations, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [9].