大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 09 月 26 日 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1.据央视新闻，当地时间 9 月 25 日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"宣布， 自 10 月 1 日起，美国将对多类进口产品实施新一轮高额关税。措施包括对厨房橱柜、 浴室洗手台及相关建材征收 50%关税，对进口家具征收 30%关税，并对专利及品牌药 品加征 100%关税 2.墨西哥政府拟对中国等非自贸伙伴的产品提高进口关税税率的相关措施，具体涉及汽 车及零部件、纺织品、服装、塑料、钢铁、家电、铝、玻璃等产品类别。商务部决定 对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投资壁垒调查。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3290 元（+10），北京地区 3190（-），上海地区热卷 3400 元（-），天津地区热卷 3330 元（-）。 【逻辑分析】 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 昨日夜盘黑色板块依然维持震荡走势，25 日建筑钢材成交为 10.82 万吨。本周钢联数 据公布，五大材总 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices may continue to decline. [3] - The supply and demand contradictions of iron ore are not prominent for the moment, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrous alloys have dropped rapidly. In the short - term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The fundamental problems of over - supply in the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron industries remain. [7][8][9] - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and is expected to have high - volatility. [12][13][14] - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price of soda ash may gradually rise, but the increase is limited. [16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Analysis**: The export volume of steel increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.33% (-10.50), and the position changed to 45.29 million hands. The weighted position was 80.85 million hands. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08%. [5] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipping was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The recent arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased slightly. [6] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On August 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.61% at 5862 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.42% at 5656 yuan/ton. [7] - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferrous alloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There were no obvious fundamental contradictions in silicon iron, and supply also continued to increase. [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.84% (-160). The weighted contract position changed to 526046 hands. [11] - **Market Analysis**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained. Production continued to rise, and the support from the demand side was limited. It was expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50985 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.15% (-595). The weighted contract position changed to 320439 hands. [13] - **Market Analysis**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It was expected to have high - volatility. [14] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price in Shahe was 1138 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, up 180,000 heavy boxes (0.28%) from the previous period. [16] - **Market Analysis**: The production of glass remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. The price adjustment space was limited, and the market expected policy support. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [16] - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of soda ash was 1200 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons (1.19%) from last Thursday. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The price of soda ash fluctuated with the coal - chemical sector. The downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase was limited. [17]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on coking coal and coke futures released by Dayue Futures on July 15, 2025, providing market analysis and price trends [1][2][6] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines have reduced their production due to safety inspections. With positive expectations in the coke market, the demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines are actively destocking. The prices of some scarce and high - cost - effective coal types are stable after the increase, and there may be a further price increase. The downstream steel and coke enterprises have low inventories and strong replenishment demand. In the short term, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Currently, coke enterprises have thin profits, with some in losses and still in a production - restricted state. However, the demand from steel mills is strong, and intermediate speculative traders are actively purchasing. Coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and their inventories are rapidly decreasing, resulting in a tight supply. In the short term, coke prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines' production has declined due to safety inspections. The demand is good, and coal mines are destocking. There may be a price increase for some coal types [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 940, and the basis is 20, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2] - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2] - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2] - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Coke enterprises have thin profits, some are in losses and restricting production. The demand from steel mills is good, and inventories are decreasing rapidly [6] - **Basis**: The spot price is 1420, and the basis is - 99.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6] - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6] - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to be stable with an upward trend [6] 2. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [4] - **Negative**: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [4] - **Coke** - **Positive**: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8] - **Negative**: The squeeze on the profit margin of steel mills and the partial over - exhaustion of replenishment demand [8] 3. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on July 14, 2025, including various coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal, along with price changes [9] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18] - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24] 5. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35] - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to supply constraints and increased demand from steel and coke enterprises, with the main futures contract reaching 840.0 yuan/ton, up 2.75% [1]. Supply and Production - A major coal mine in Changzhi is undergoing maintenance from June 28 to July 12, affecting a total of 375,000 tons of raw coal production [2]. - The overall coal supply is gradually recovering as some previously reduced or suspended coal mines in the Ordos region are resuming production [2]. Market Pricing - On July 1, the auction price for low-sulfur coke coal in the Qinyuan market increased slightly, with a starting price of 1,100 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 1,128 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5 yuan/ton increase from the previous auction [2]. Industry Insights - Xinyi Futures notes that the inventory at mines is showing signs of a turning point, with steel and coke enterprises slightly exceeding expectations in restocking, leading to a recovery in the coal supply-demand structure [3]. - Yide Futures highlights that the fourth round of price reductions for coke has compressed profit margins for coke enterprises, while the supply of coke is declining. However, the demand from steel mills remains resilient, supporting the raw material needs [3]. - The overall market for coking coal is improving, with a notable decrease in the rate of unsold auction lots and increased purchasing activity from intermediate washing plants and traders [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is entering a period of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. It is necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profits [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the near - month non - main contracts have rebounded, and there are safety inspection voices in the main production areas. The short - term may see a rebound, while the medium - term strategy is still high - selling [6]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are under pressure due to macro - level negatives. Their prices are expected to be mainly under pressure [7]. - For iron ore, the off - season effect is gradually being realized, and there is still room for the price to fall [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2905 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan (-2.12%); HC2601 at 3045 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%); J2601 at 658.5 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan (-1.42%); JM2601 at 735.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-3.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-1.18%); HC2510 at 3052 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.04%); J2509 at 695.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (-1.14%); JM2509 at 719 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan (-3.03%) [2]. - **Spreads**: On June 3rd, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 was 23 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 was 17 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; J2509 - 2601 was - 23.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM2509 - 2601 was - 16.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan, up 9 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.21, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.81, up 0.01; the rebar disk profit was <73.18, down 17.78; the coking disk profit was 342.73, up 0.31 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, Shanghai rebar was 3080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 96.3, down 0.5. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Rizhao Port: PB was 728 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: On June 3rd, the basis of HC main contract was 108 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; RB main contract was 152 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; I main contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract was 252.13 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; JM main contract was 216 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. Macro - environment is uncertain, and there may be a short - term policy vacuum. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse market expectations, but relevant information is lacking. It is necessary to maintain the idea of selling hedging or spot pre - sale [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to fall, and the futures black - chain index is at a new low. The 07 contract of coking coal has increased in position and price, and safety inspections are reported in the main production areas. The market is affected by overseas tariffs, and the cost curve of coking coal is unclear. Short - term rebound may occur, and medium - term high - selling opportunities can be focused on [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron has reduced supply, weakened direct and terminal demand, and weakened cost support. Manganese silicon has a relatively balanced supply - demand situation, but supply may increase marginally, and costs are also moving down. Both are under price pressure [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Ore shipments are gradually recovering, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. Steel demand is weakening seasonally, and iron water production is declining. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit on iron water production and the stability of steel exports [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, do well in hedging and open - position management, and conduct appropriate inventory rotation. For arbitrage positions, the coil - to - rebar spread has temporarily stopped losing [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term may see a rebound, and the medium - term strategy is high - selling [9]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Short - sell on rallies due to the repeated Sino - US trade negotiations, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [9].