1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply is generally loose with the arrival of the first shipment of Simandou iron ore in China; overseas shipments declined last week, but recent concentrated arrivals of iron ore have led to a continuous increase in port inventories. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production declined, iron ore daily consumption decreased, and in - plant inventories increased. Overall, supply is stronger than demand, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mills' restocking before the Spring Festival [1][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3163 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.60% with a total trading volume of 5178836 lots and a total open interest of 2320984 lots - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.64% with a total trading volume of 2077198 lots and a total open interest of 1448345 lots - DCE iron ore closed at 812.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or - 0.31% with a total trading volume of 1331049 lots and a total open interest of 652402 lots - DCE coking coal closed at 1171.0 yuan/ton, down 24.5 yuan or - 2.05% with a total trading volume of 6677833 lots and a total open interest of 625637 lots - DCE coke closed at 1717.0 yuan/ton, down 31.0 yuan or - 1.77% with a total trading volume of 116309 lots and a total open interest of 38799 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand side**: Last week, hot metal production declined, iron ore daily consumption decreased, and in - plant inventories increased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 228.01 tons, a decrease of 1.49 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.53 tons from the same period last year - **Supply side**: Overseas shipments declined last week, but recent concentrated arrivals of iron ore have led to a continuous increase in port inventories. On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived at China Baowu's Majishan Port. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 172.887 million tons, an increase of 2.4426 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 194,000 tons [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, including optimizing loan discount policies for service - sector business entities and personal consumption loans, implementing loan discount policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, establishing a special guarantee plan for private investment, and optimizing the fiscal discount policy for equipment renewal loans - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced that from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a housing in the market within one year after the sale of their current housing will be eligible for a tax refund on the individual income tax paid for the sale of their current housing - The central bank launched a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the re - loan and re - discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, merging the use of re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses with re - discount quotas, increasing the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, setting up a 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises in the total quota, expanding the support scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30%. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year - According to China Baowu, the first shipment of Simandou iron ore arrived at China Baowu's Majishan Port. On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore successfully arrived at a Chinese port [10] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the profitability rate of steel mills across the country, daily average pig iron production, global iron ore shipments, port inventories, and domestic mine iron ore production from 2022 to 2026 [8][11][26]

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors, with a notable increase in the main iron ore futures contract and a corresponding rise in spot prices, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics [7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have slightly decreased but remain at historically high levels, with total shipments down by 4.63 million tons to 32.137 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons [5]. - The shipment volume from Australia to China was 16.153 million tons, down by 2.523 million tons [5]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production is 2.2743 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.085 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate is at 78.94%, up by 0.62%, and the capacity utilization rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability has improved to 38.1%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [4]. Inventory - As of January 2, the inventory at 45 ports is 159.7089 million tons, an increase of 0.41 million tons. Steel mill imported ore inventory rose by 0.086 million tons to 89.4654 million tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a state of supply-demand balance to a scenario of both supply and demand weakness, with high inventory levels exerting downward pressure on prices while low inventory levels at steel mills provide some support [7]. - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with a reference range of 770-840, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, policy expectations, and steel mill replenishment rhythms [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand expectation for iron ore has weakened marginally, leading to a price correction. The iron ore's high valuation is hard to sustain. With recent macro - events settled, the ore price has corrected from its high. However, the excessive decline in coal and coke has triggered the seesaw effect between ore and coke. Coupled with positive policies on the downstream demand side, the depth of the ore price correction is relatively limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply 3.1.1 Overseas Shipment - Global iron ore shipment remains at a relatively high level. The non - mainstream supply mainly has incremental growth from India and Canada. Rumors about the negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP are ongoing, and some ore brands may be affected [5] - In the latest week, global shipment is 3368.6 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 45.4 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 706.1 thousand tons. The cumulative shipment from the beginning of the year to the 49th week in 2025 is 153173.9 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3962 thousand tons [4] 3.1.2 Mainstream Mines - Australia and Brazil's shipment performance is neutral, and freight rates have declined. Rio Tinto has a relatively large incremental increase in shipment to China in the recent week, with a week - on - week increase of 170.5 thousand tons [17][19] 3.1.3 Non - mainstream Mines - India and Canada contribute the main incremental growth in non - mainstream supply [21] 3.1.4 Domestic Mines - The production and operation rate in Southwest China remains relatively low [29] 3.2 Demand 3.2.1 Downstream Demand - Iron - making water production, the production of major steel products, and port ore - handling volume all show signs of weakening. The 247 - enterprise iron - making water production is 2292 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31 thousand tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1 thousand tons [31][4] 3.2.2 Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel - Due to the relatively weak performance of iron ore, coal and coke prices, the cost support for iron - making water has declined, and the scrap - iron price difference has rebounded from a low level [32] 3.3 Inventory - The overall port inventory is rising, but the slope is relatively gentle [36][38] 3.4 Downstream Profits - The decline in coking coal and coke prices helps to repair downstream profits [40] 3.5 Spot Category Price Difference - The inventory contradiction of port iron concentrate has further intensified recently, and the price difference between Tangshan iron concentrate and PB powder has decreased significantly [42] 3.6 Futures Monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 monthly spread has stabilized, and the year - on - year level is lower than that of last year [44] 3.7 Basis Performance - Recently, the spot and futures price trends have been relatively consistent, and the basis performance has also stabilized [48] 3.8 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract has fluctuated weakly, closing at 754.5 yuan/ton. The position is 465,500 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 56,800 lots. The average daily trading volume is 278,900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 156,200 lots [7] 3.9 Spot Price Performance - The spot price has also declined. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) in Qingdao Port has dropped from 870 yuan/ton last week to 865 yuan/ton this week [12]

Report Information - Report Title: Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report - Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Iron Ore Oscillating Downward [1] - Date: 20251109 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Reviewer: Xiao Yonghui [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - events, during the policy vacuum period, iron ore prices returned to the real - world situation, showing an oscillating downward trend last week. Supply is strong with a significant increase in near - end foreign ore arrivals and high historical shipping volumes, while demand is weak as pig iron production continues to decline, steel mill profitability drops sharply, and blast furnace maintenance expands. With supply exceeding demand, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Strategy: Short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference pressure level of 820 - 850 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 174,600 tons week - on - week to 3.2138 million tons. Non - mainstream regions' shipping decreased by 13,600 tons week - on - week to 530,300 tons [4][39]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.8275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 92,000 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 856,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons [4][36]. - **Arrival Volume**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 1.1893 million tons week - on - week to 3.2184 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 490,000 tons [4][48]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 39,880 tons/day, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [61]. 3.2 Demand - **Pig Iron Production and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 234,220 tons, and pig iron production continued to decline [4][64]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: As of November 7, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [4][78]. - **Consumption of Downstream Products**: The report shows historical data trends of consumption and production of products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, but no specific demand - related data summaries are provided [70][74]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 7, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14.89883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356,350 tons. Among them, Australian ore inventory was 6.17069 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,290 tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 5.87431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,440 tons [4][17][21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill imported iron ore inventory was 9.00994 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,080 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 21 days, the same as the previous week [4][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market currently shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a relatively healthy fundamental situation, which provides support for iron ore prices. After the Sino - US Geneva talks, the tariff policy has been eased, and with the revision of downstream demand expectations, the iron ore price is expected to rebound in the near future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On May 12, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upwards, rising 3.16% to close at 718.5 yuan/ton. The prices of other steel futures also showed varying degrees of increase, such as RB2510 rising 1.52%, HC2510 rising 1.51%, and SS2507 rising 1.29% [5][7]. - In terms of positions, the long - short position changes of different contracts varied. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 18,164 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 5,325 hands, with a long - short difference of 12,839 hands and a deviation of 2.84% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - In the spot market on May 12, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by $2.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ and MACD indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed golden crosses [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Brazil decreased, while those from Australia increased slightly. The total shipments from 19 ports decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports also decreased slightly. However, the overall level was still moderately high. The shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.68% compared with the previous four weeks, and it is expected that the arrivals will remain at a moderately high level in the near future, with a loose iron ore supply [10][11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased again, reaching a new high of 2.4564 million tons since late October 2023. Steel mills maintained strong production, providing strong support for the actual demand for iron ore [11]. - **Inventory**: The available days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and the port inventory decreased slightly. As the arrivals remain at a high level, it is expected that the inventory will increase in the near future, but the increase space is limited [11]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [12]. - According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 317,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. The export of new energy vehicles was 200,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 27% and a year - on - year increase of 76%. From January to April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 1.295 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, and the export of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 52.6% [12]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks jointly stated that both sides will take measures to adjust tariffs. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and China will make corresponding adjustments to the tariffs on US goods. Both sides will also cancel some additional tariffs and take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. They will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [12][13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port iron ore trading volume, steel mill inventory available days, port inventory and dredging volume, and various production and consumption data of steel products [20][22][24].