主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉+22至832元/湿吨，巴混+22至867元/湿吨，卡粉+18至919 元/湿吨。 【期货】 截止1月7日收盘，铁矿主力合约+4.09%(+32.5)，收于828元/吨。 【基差】 最优交割品为卡粉。PB粉和卡粉仓单成本分别为891元和890元。主力合约PB粉基差66元/吨。 【需求】 日均铁水产量227.43万吨，环比+0.85万吨；高炉开工率78.94%，环比+0.62%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.26%，环比+0.32个百分点；钢厂盈利率38.1%，环比+0.87个百分点。 【现货】 【供给】 本期全球发运环比小幅回落，但仍处于历史同期高位水平。全球发运-463.4万吨至3213.7万吨。澳洲巴 西铁矿发运总量量2742.7万吨，环比减少316.9万吨。溴洲发运量1939.6万吨，环比减少174.1万吨，其中 澳洲发往中国的量1615.3万吨，环比减少252.3万吨。巴西发运量803.2万吨，环比减少142.7万吨。45港 口到港量2756.4万吨，环比增加155.0万吨。 【库存】 截至1月2日，45港库存15970.89万吨，环比+41万吨；小部分钢厂复 ...

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：需求预期边际转弱，价格回调 | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 | 当周值 | | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | 49W2025 | | 49W2024 | | 累计同比 | | | 累计同比% | | | 全球发货量 | 3368 | 6 . | 45 . | 4 | 706 | 1 . | | 全球发货 | 153173 | 9 . | 149211 | 9 . | 3962 | 0 . | 2 | | | | 澳发货量 | 188 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report - Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Iron Ore Oscillating Downward [1] - Date: 20251109 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Reviewer: Xiao Yonghui [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - events, during the policy vacuum period, iron ore prices returned to the real - world situation, showing an oscillating downward trend last week. Supply is strong with a significant increase in near - end foreign ore arrivals and high historical shipping volumes, while demand is weak as pig iron production continues to decline, steel mill profitability drops sharply, and blast furnace maintenance expands. With supply exceeding demand, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Strategy: Short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference pressure level of 820 - 850 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 174,600 tons week - on - week to 3.2138 million tons. Non - mainstream regions' shipping decreased by 13,600 tons week - on - week to 530,300 tons [4][39]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.8275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 92,000 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 856,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons [4][36]. - **Arrival Volume**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 1.1893 million tons week - on - week to 3.2184 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 490,000 tons [4][48]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 39,880 tons/day, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [61]. 3.2 Demand - **Pig Iron Production and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 234,220 tons, and pig iron production continued to decline [4][64]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: As of November 7, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [4][78]. - **Consumption of Downstream Products**: The report shows historical data trends of consumption and production of products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, but no specific demand - related data summaries are provided [70][74]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 7, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14.89883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356,350 tons. Among them, Australian ore inventory was 6.17069 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,290 tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 5.87431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,440 tons [4][17][21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill imported iron ore inventory was 9.00994 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,080 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 21 days, the same as the previous week [4][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market currently shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a relatively healthy fundamental situation, which provides support for iron ore prices. After the Sino - US Geneva talks, the tariff policy has been eased, and with the revision of downstream demand expectations, the iron ore price is expected to rebound in the near future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On May 12, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upwards, rising 3.16% to close at 718.5 yuan/ton. The prices of other steel futures also showed varying degrees of increase, such as RB2510 rising 1.52%, HC2510 rising 1.51%, and SS2507 rising 1.29% [5][7]. - In terms of positions, the long - short position changes of different contracts varied. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 18,164 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 5,325 hands, with a long - short difference of 12,839 hands and a deviation of 2.84% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - In the spot market on May 12, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by $2.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ and MACD indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed golden crosses [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Brazil decreased, while those from Australia increased slightly. The total shipments from 19 ports decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports also decreased slightly. However, the overall level was still moderately high. The shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.68% compared with the previous four weeks, and it is expected that the arrivals will remain at a moderately high level in the near future, with a loose iron ore supply [10][11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased again, reaching a new high of 2.4564 million tons since late October 2023. Steel mills maintained strong production, providing strong support for the actual demand for iron ore [11]. - **Inventory**: The available days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and the port inventory decreased slightly. As the arrivals remain at a high level, it is expected that the inventory will increase in the near future, but the increase space is limited [11]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [12]. - According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 317,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. The export of new energy vehicles was 200,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 27% and a year - on - year increase of 76%. From January to April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 1.295 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, and the export of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 52.6% [12]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks jointly stated that both sides will take measures to adjust tariffs. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and China will make corresponding adjustments to the tariffs on US goods. Both sides will also cancel some additional tariffs and take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. They will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [12][13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port iron ore trading volume, steel mill inventory available days, port inventory and dredging volume, and various production and consumption data of steel products [20][22][24].