锡产业风险管理日报 2025/09/16 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） source： 南华研究 南华观点： 锡价在近期的走强主要得益于美联储降息预期，推升了整个有色金属板块的估值。短期来看，现在投资者对 于美联储9月的利率决议已经基本保持预期一致，对10月也有较为统一的预期，因此货币政策对于锡价的影响 或降低。基本面供给偏紧的短期格局在9月或难以改变，需求的弱势暂时还无法对价格产生太大的影响。锡价 或继续围绕27.4万元每吨震荡。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 273960 | 245000-263000 | 13.17% | 23.0% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the tin industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The rise in tin prices on Monday was a passive increase, not closely related to its fundamentals. The speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman at the global central bank meeting lifted the valuation of the non - ferrous metal sector, and the over - rise may be corrected within the next trading day. The continuous two - week decline in tin ingot social inventory may provide upward momentum for tin prices. Tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is below 270,000 yuan per ton [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors in the tin market.利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected.利空 factors include the recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [4][5]. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 269,570 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一, and沪锡连三 are 269,570 yuan/ton, 269,890 yuan/ton, and 270,160 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of伦锡3M is 33,845 dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 370 dollars and a daily increase rate of 1.11%. The沪伦比 is 7.86, with a daily decrease of 0.11 and a daily decrease rate of 1.38% [2][6]. Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of沪锡主力期货 contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2511C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate. - For raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of沪锡主力期货 contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2511P260000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Spot Market - In the weekly spot market, the prices of various tin - related products have increased. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is 269,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.09%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 257,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.14% [12]. Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,766.65 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 144.42 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.87%. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [16]. Inventory - In the daily inventory data, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,032 tons, with a daily decrease of 21 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.3%. The LME tin inventory is 1,785 tons, with a daily increase of 45 tons and a daily increase rate of 2.59% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in tin prices was mainly due to the boost to the non - ferrous metals sector from anti - involution, with no significant change in its own fundamentals. Given the oligopoly in the upstream and its suppression of the downstream, the price increase is understandable. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, tin prices may decline slightly. Investors should also note the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on tin prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 266,660 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and 25% of call options (SN2509C275000) when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and 25% of put options (SN2509P245000) when volatility is appropriate [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [4] 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous - first, and continuous - third contracts are 266,660 yuan/ton, 266,660 yuan/ton, and 266,930 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M is at 33,620 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars (-0.15%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.98, up 0.04 (0.5%) [5] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 266,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-0.08%); 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (40%); 40% and 60% tin concentrates are at 254,100 yuan/ton and 258,100 yuan/ton respectively, down 200 yuan (-0.08%); prices of various solder products remain unchanged [9] 3.5 Import and Processing Data - Tin import loss is 17,714.03 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 1,360.71 yuan (-7.13%). The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ores are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,550 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [14] 3.6 Inventory Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory: The total warehouse receipt quantity is 7,529 tons, up 160 tons (2.17%); 4,833 tons in Guangdong, up 62 tons (1.3%); 1,821 tons in Shanghai, up 104 tons (6.06%). LME tin inventory is 1,820 tons, up 80 tons (4.6%) [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin market. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.18%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished - product inventory and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw - material inventory and worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 268,110 yuan/ton, 268,110 yuan/ton, and 267,880 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,565 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars (- 0.72%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.01, up 0.15 (1.91%) [6]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.06%); 1 tin premium is 600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 14.29%); 40% tin concentrate is 255,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.16%); 60% tin concentrate is 259,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.13%); the price of solder bar (60A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 173,750 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.06%); the price of solder bar (63A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 181,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (1.97%); the price of lead - free solder is 273,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan (1.86%) [10][13]. 3.4 Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,212.76 yuan/ton, down 2,572.25 yuan (17.57%); 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: The total tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,750 tons, up 199 tons (3.04%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,214 tons, up 24 tons (0.57%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,611 tons, up 175 tons (12.19%); the total LME tin inventory is 2,175 tons with no change [17].

Core Insights - The May 2023 China Commodity Price Index (CCPI) stands at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [1][3] - The index indicates a stabilization trend in commodity prices, with specific sectors showing varied performance, such as a slight increase in non-ferrous metal prices and a rebound in chemical prices [1][6] Price Index Summary - The non-ferrous price index rose to 127.7 points, up 0.9% month-on-month but down 5.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The agricultural product price index increased to 98.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][4] - The chemical price index rebounded to 102.8 points, up 0.5% month-on-month but down 13.7% year-on-year [3][4] - The black metal price index fell to 78.7 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 11.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The energy price index decreased to 96.3 points, down 2.1% month-on-month and down 14.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The mineral price index dropped to 75.6 points, down 2.2% month-on-month and down 8.3% year-on-year [3][4] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 32 (64%) saw price declines while 17 (34%) experienced price increases [4][6] - The top three commodities with price increases were PTA (up 9.5%), ethylene glycol (up 4.6%), and corn (up 4.3%) [4][6] - The largest price declines were observed in industrial silicon (down 10.2%), lithium carbonate (down 10%), and soybean meal (down 9.9%) [4][6] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the rise in non-ferrous prices to improved demand expectations due to easing US-China tariff policies [5][6] - The agricultural price index's increase is linked to stable downstream consumer demand, with corn prices rising due to increased market demand and short-term supply constraints [6][7] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to persistent external uncertainties and insufficient effective demand in certain sectors [1][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the documents. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, in the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, but in the medium - and short - term, the strong pattern is broken, and the game between bulls and bears intensifies. Investors are advised to be cautious and follow the 60 - day moving average [3]. - For nickel, it is in a neutral position in the short - term and a bearish position in the long - term. Technical support at 123,000 should be noted, but there is a lack of rebound momentum [5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Time - frame Views**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is to wait and see [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: In the context of the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the futures price breaks below the 20 - day moving average, breaking the strong pattern. However, with frequent global geopolitical events, the futures price still has strong support. After approaching the 60 - day moving average last week, it stabilizes and rebounds [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Time - frame Views**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is to wait and see [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The nickel price oscillated and rebounded last night. Since last week, the center of the nickel price has continued to move down, and the amplitude has narrowed. After the short - term macro - benefits are digested by the market, non - ferrous metals have all declined. On the industrial level, the upstream ore end remains strong, giving support to the futures price; nickel sulfate operates stably; the downstream stainless steel rises and then falls, lacking a continuous upward driving force [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market currently shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a relatively healthy fundamental situation, which provides support for iron ore prices. After the Sino - US Geneva talks, the tariff policy has been eased, and with the revision of downstream demand expectations, the iron ore price is expected to rebound in the near future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On May 12, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upwards, rising 3.16% to close at 718.5 yuan/ton. The prices of other steel futures also showed varying degrees of increase, such as RB2510 rising 1.52%, HC2510 rising 1.51%, and SS2507 rising 1.29% [5][7]. - In terms of positions, the long - short position changes of different contracts varied. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 18,164 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 5,325 hands, with a long - short difference of 12,839 hands and a deviation of 2.84% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - In the spot market on May 12, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by $2.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ and MACD indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed golden crosses [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Brazil decreased, while those from Australia increased slightly. The total shipments from 19 ports decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports also decreased slightly. However, the overall level was still moderately high. The shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.68% compared with the previous four weeks, and it is expected that the arrivals will remain at a moderately high level in the near future, with a loose iron ore supply [10][11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased again, reaching a new high of 2.4564 million tons since late October 2023. Steel mills maintained strong production, providing strong support for the actual demand for iron ore [11]. - **Inventory**: The available days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and the port inventory decreased slightly. As the arrivals remain at a high level, it is expected that the inventory will increase in the near future, but the increase space is limited [11]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [12]. - According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 317,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. The export of new energy vehicles was 200,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 27% and a year - on - year increase of 76%. From January to April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 1.295 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, and the export of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 52.6% [12]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks jointly stated that both sides will take measures to adjust tariffs. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and China will make corresponding adjustments to the tariffs on US goods. Both sides will also cancel some additional tariffs and take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. They will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [12][13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port iron ore trading volume, steel mill inventory available days, port inventory and dredging volume, and various production and consumption data of steel products [20][22][24].