Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, meaning it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Coke: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] Report's Core View - The overall market sentiment is cautious, and the supply-demand contradictions in various sectors are not significant. Different products are expected to have different trends, mainly including interval oscillations, weak oscillations, etc., and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends, policy expectations, and cost support [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's market rose first and then fell. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and molten iron production has declined. From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December. The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious. The market is expected to oscillate within an interval in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today's market oscillated weakly. On the supply side, global shipments have seasonally declined month-on-month, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventory continues to show an accumulation trend. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved month-on-month. This week, molten iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, and the fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high-level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventory has slightly increased. The purchasing intention of traders has improved. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total coking coal inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, coke is likely to follow a weak oscillation trend [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 trucks. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the market price, the transaction price has also increased, and the terminal inventory has increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the market's winter storage actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, the price is likely to oscillate weakly [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound in the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore have all increased last week. On the demand side, molten iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the silicon manganese inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [7] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations for a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high-level range. The export demand has decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. Overall, the demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The supply of iron elements is relatively loose, and the decrease in molten iron production by steel mills has alleviated inventory pressure. The apparent demand for five major steel products is higher than production, and inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory of flat - rolled products is relatively high year - on - year, and the pressure for winter stockpiling is greater than last year. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter. The 1 - month contract for rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills has dropped significantly, molten iron production has declined from its peak, and the restocking demand of steel mills is weak. The inventory pressure has increased. The previous macro - positive factors have been digested, and the decline in iron ore prices, molten iron production, and the increase in port inventory still suppress iron ore. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The spot market has a third - round price increase, and there is still an expectation of further increases. On the supply side, the rebound in coking coal prices provides cost support, and the loss of coke production has narrowed after the price increase. On the demand side, environmental restrictions and the decline in molten iron production have suppressed the price increase. The overall inventory is slightly increasing, and the supply is tight. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a divergence between futures and spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. On the supply side, some coal mines are resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase, but the recovery is limited. On the demand side, the restocking demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing, and downstream is actively restocking. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips in the short - term, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3220 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3304 to 3272 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 3305 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, a 1.5% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 10.0 tons to 875.3 tons, a 1.2% increase [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 tons to 1513.7 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 tons to 602.5 tons, a 3.1% decrease [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3 (the value in the report is incomplete), a 5.4% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 tons to 916.4 tons, a 2.7% increase [2]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 835.9 to 829.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 - contract for various powders increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 1189.3 tons to 3218.4 tons, a 58.6% increase. The global shipment volume decreased by 174.6 tons to 3213.8 tons, a 5.2% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 374.7 tons to 6604.6 tons, a 5.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 171.6 tons to 14714.08 tons, a 1.2% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 tons to 8849.9 tons, a 2.5% decrease [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 43 to 1729 yuan/ton, a 2.4% decrease [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 tons to 900.0 tons, a 0.9% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 tons to 59.9 tons, a 2.1% increase [7]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 32 to 1253 yuan/ton, a 2.5% decrease [7]. Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 tons to 851.8 tons, a 0.4% increase. The clean coal production increased by 1.5 tons to 434.9 tons, a 0.3% increase [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 tons to 81.1 tons, a 10.2% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, a 2.2% increase [7].