1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the supply side shows a significant decline in coal mine operating loads, with slight inventory fluctuations and an increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance. The demand side has coking enterprises maintaining the pre - holiday capacity utilization level, a significant decrease in coking coal inventory, and an accumulation of coke inventory, with the profit per ton of coke remaining the same as before the holiday. Overall, with some steel enterprises in North China implementing self - emission reduction, there is an expectation of improvement in the steel market supply - demand situation, leading to a rise in coking coal futures prices. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose, and the Two Sessions will provide short - term support, so it is expected to fluctuate. [2] - For coke, on the supply side, coking enterprises maintain the pre - holiday load level, and due to the impact of Spring Festival logistics and transportation, the on - site inventory has accumulated. On the demand side, the support from molten iron production is limited. Overall, with some steel mills in North China implementing self - emission reduction, there is an expectation of improvement in the steel market fundamentals, leading to a rise in coke futures prices. The supply of coking enterprises remains stable, and the steel market inventory has accumulated, with a loose supply - demand situation. The Two Sessions will provide short - term support, so it is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1126.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 yuan [2] - J main contract closing price: 1674.00 yuan/ton, up 39.50 yuan [2] - JM futures contract open interest: 646763.00 lots, up 28114.00 lots [2] - J futures contract open interest: 41830.00 lots, down 869.00 lots [2] - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 82202.00 lots, down 2065.00 lots [2] - Net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: 478.00 lots, up 422.00 lots [2] - JM 9 - 5 month contract spread: 84.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan [2] - J 9 - 5 month contract spread: 69.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan [2] - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 300.00 sheets, down 100.00 sheets [2] - Coke warehouse receipts: 1420.00 sheets, unchanged [2] - JM main contract basis: 179.00 yuan/ton, down 64.50 yuan [2] - J main contract basis: 46.00 yuan/ton, down 39.50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 1006.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan [2] - Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR): 163.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.50 US dollars [2] - Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal (yard price): 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal (yard price): 1700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi: 1375.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Coking coal ex - factory price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia: 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 24.30 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2] - Fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 309.00 million tons, down 25.50 million tons [2] - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.32%, down 0.03% [2] - Raw coal output: 43703.50 million tons, up 1024.20 million tons [2] - Coal and lignite import volume: 5860.00 million tons, up 1455.00 million tons [2] - Daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 108.60 million tons, down 72.20 million tons [2] - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 496.27 million tons, unchanged [2] - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 893.49 million tons, down 224.60 million tons [2] - Coke inventory at 18 ports: 263.86 million tons, down 6.13 million tons [2] - Coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 55.52 million tons, up 11.77 million tons [2] - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 820.35 million tons, down 17.90 million tons [2] - Coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide: 688.61 million tons, down 9.30 million tons [2] - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 13.06 days, down 0.28 days [2] - Available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 12.46 days, down 0.24 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Coking coal import volume: 1376.98 million tons, up 303.83 million tons [2] - Coke and semi - coke export volume: 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2] - Total coking coal supply: 5478.50 million tons, up 238.93 million tons [2] - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 72.20%, up 0.34% [2] - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: - 8.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan [2] - Coke output: 4274.30 million tons, up 104.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 80.13%, up 0.60% [2] - Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 86.41%, up 0.72% [2] - Crude steel output: 6817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US has officially started imposing a 10% global tariff, and the White House is preparing a formal order to raise the tariff rate to 15%. The US government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security". [2] - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary self - emission reduction during the 2026 National Important Conference, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4th to March 11th, with the blast furnace load self - reducing by no less than 30%. [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, coking coal entered a weak oscillation range with a pattern of both supply and demand reduction. There was unlikely to be a trending market before the festival [1] - As the holiday approached, mines mostly reduced or halted production. The domestic coking coal supply contracted during the holiday, and the news of Indonesia's potential export suspension was uncertain [1] - The downstream demand was in a seasonal off - peak. Steel mills and coking enterprises maintained low - level inventory and replenished stocks on a just - in - time basis. The winter stockpiling was nearly finished [1] - The coking enterprises' price increase was implemented before the festival, and their profits were restored. There was a need to be vigilant about the possibility of price cuts after the festival if the demand recovery fell short of expectations [1] - Currently, coking coal remained in a loose supply - demand situation. The post - festival resumption of production in steel mills and mines might affect the coking coal price. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position due to potential price fluctuations after the holiday [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price of coking coal was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 1,018 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,120 yuan/ton. The basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Supply Data - From February 6th to February 13th, the coking coal开工率 of 523 domestic sample mines was 81.39%, a decrease of 5.28 percentage points compared to the previous period. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 74.26 tons, a decrease of 1.19 tons compared to the previous period [4] 3.3 Demand Data - From January 30th to February 6th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.14 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to the previous period [6] - The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.24 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons compared to the previous period [6] - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons compared to the previous period [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View of the Report - Coking coal opened low and moved high, with a late - session plunge. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal supply enters a significant contraction period, and Mongolian coal customs clearance will also be restricted during the holiday. Some large coal mines continue to ship inventory during the holiday. The downstream is in the final stage of winter stockpiling. The inventory will continue to decline but is approaching the end. The downstream steel trading volume is poor. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal mines tighten, and the downstream also tightens seasonally. After the Spring Festival, with the resumption of production of steel mills, there is an opportunity for the market to brew, and it will oscillate weakly before the festival [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal opened low and moved high, with a late - session plunge. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal supply enters a significant contraction period, and Mongolian coal customs clearance will be restricted during the holiday. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.67%, a decrease of 2.46% compared to the previous period. The daily output of raw coal reaches 192.53 tons. As the holiday approaches, there are more mine safety inspections and shutdowns. The downstream winter stockpiling is coming to an end, and the coking coal inventory of mines is decreasing, with a weekly decrease of 2.53 tons. Last week, coking enterprises increased their inventory by 67.6 tons, and steel mills increased their inventory by 9.84 tons. There are still two weeks of stockpiling time before the Spring Festival, and the inventory will continue to decline, but it is approaching the end. The downstream steel trading volume is poor, and the downstream hot metal production increased by 0.26% compared to the previous period, with a weekly average daily output of 228.58 tons. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal mines tighten, and the downstream also tightens seasonally. After the Spring Festival, with the resumption of production of steel mills, there is an opportunity for the market to brew, and it will oscillate weakly before the festival [1] Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price is quoted at 1,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal is 1,018 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures is 1,123.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 146.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From January 30 to February 6, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 86.67%, a decrease of 2.46 percentage points compared to the previous period; the daily output of refined coking coal was 75.45 tons, a decrease of 1.62 tons compared to the previous period [4] Demand Data - From January 30 to February 6, the daily output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.14 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to the previous period; the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.24 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons compared to the previous period. The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons compared to the previous period [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market is currently showing a strong trend. With the approaching Spring Festival, domestic mines are gradually on holiday, and the inventory of coking coal mines has started to accumulate. The downstream winter - storage replenishment process has accelerated, and the first round of coke price increase has been implemented, with the downstream's acceptance of high - priced products improving and the profit of coking enterprises rising. Some countries have listed coking coal as a key strategic mineral, causing significant fluctuations in market sentiment. The coking coal market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened higher and moved higher during the day, showing an upward trend. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 89.13%, a 0.2% decrease from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal reached 1.9782 million tons. The inventory of coking coal mines has started to accumulate, with a week - on - week decrease of 71,700 tons. Coking enterprises and steel mills have increased their inventories, and the winter - storage replenishment process has accelerated compared to last week. The downstream molten iron output decreased by 0.12% week - on - week, with a daily average output of 227,980 tons. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced products has improved. The profit of coking enterprises has rebounded. The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly. The market is strongly volatile in the short term [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures was 1,155.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 144.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply Data - From January 24th to January 30th, the coking coal production rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 89.13%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period. The daily output of refined coking coal was 77,070 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons from the previous period [5]. 3.3.2 Demand Data - From January 16th to January 23rd, the daily output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 62,840 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47,010 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 227,980 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous period [6].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the coke and coking coal industries are "Oscillating Weakly" under the dual influence of macro and micro factors [1]. Core View - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan/ton (-4.3%); the closing price of J2605 was 1673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan/ton (-2.8%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: JM2605 had a trading volume of 1,088,191 lots, an open interest of 532,732 lots, and an open interest change of 29,998 lots; J2605 had a trading volume of 22,017 lots, an open interest of 38,429 lots, and an open interest change of 792 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan, which decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 1220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2605 in Shanxi increased by 50.5 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton; the basis of J2605 in Shanxi's quasi - first - grade delivered - to - factory price increased by 47.5 yuan/ton to - 141.5 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2605 and JM2609 remained unchanged at - 79.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between J2605 and J2609 increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **CCI Index**: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur primary coking coal (S0.7) was 1608, CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.3) was 1260, and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.6) was 1249 [1]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On January 19, the total online auction listing volume of coking coal was 294,000 tons, with a failure - to - sell rate of 1%, a 5% decrease from last Friday. The average premium was 33.15 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was active, with most prices rising by 8 - 46 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for coke is 0, and for coking coal is also 0 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, meaning it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Coke: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] Report's Core View - The overall market sentiment is cautious, and the supply-demand contradictions in various sectors are not significant. Different products are expected to have different trends, mainly including interval oscillations, weak oscillations, etc., and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends, policy expectations, and cost support [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's market rose first and then fell. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and molten iron production has declined. From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December. The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious. The market is expected to oscillate within an interval in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today's market oscillated weakly. On the supply side, global shipments have seasonally declined month-on-month, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventory continues to show an accumulation trend. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved month-on-month. This week, molten iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, and the fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high-level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventory has slightly increased. The purchasing intention of traders has improved. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total coking coal inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, coke is likely to follow a weak oscillation trend [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 trucks. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the market price, the transaction price has also increased, and the terminal inventory has increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the market's winter storage actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, the price is likely to oscillate weakly [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound in the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore have all increased last week. On the demand side, molten iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the silicon manganese inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [7] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations for a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high-level range. The export demand has decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. Overall, the demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [8]

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.17% to 1173.5 CNY/ton as of January 15 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, the main coking coal futures contract has decreased significantly, indicating a weak market performance [1] - The average daily production of raw coal reached 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons compared to the previous period, while the average daily production of coking coal was 769,000 tons, up by 3.4% [2] - The total inventory of raw coal rose to 5.499 million tons, increasing by 765,000 tons, while the inventory of coking coal decreased to 2.724 million tons, down by 226,000 tons [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is at 88.5%, reflecting a 3.1% increase week-on-week, indicating a recovery in production [2] - Downstream enterprises are showing increased enthusiasm for purchasing and stockpiling, with market confidence recovering and overall procurement willingness improving [4] - Domestic coal mines have ended their year-end production cuts, with production gradually resuming, leading to a marginal increase in coal output [4] Group 3: Export and Auction Insights - According to data from the Gladstone Port Company, coal exports are projected to reach 6.5701 million tons by December 2025, marking an 11.39% increase month-on-month and a 14.8% increase year-on-year [2] - The Mongolian ER Company held an online auction for coking coal, with all 12,800 tons sold at a price of 900 CNY/ton, which is 15 CNY lower than the previous day [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that coking coal futures have surged by 8%, currently priced at 1227 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The significant increase in coking coal futures indicates a strong market demand or potential supply constraints [1] - This price movement may impact related industries, particularly steel production, which relies heavily on coking coal [1] - Investors should monitor the coking coal market for further developments that could influence pricing trends [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that coking coal futures have increased by 2% in a single day, currently priced at 1075.00 yuan [1] Group 2 - The increase in coking coal prices indicates a potential upward trend in the market, which may attract investor interest [1] - The report highlights the significance of coking coal in the industry, particularly in steel production, which could impact related sectors [1] - The price movement may reflect broader economic conditions and demand for steel, suggesting a correlation between coking coal prices and industrial activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coking coal futures have seen a daily increase of 2%, currently priced at 1075.00 yuan [1] Group 1 - Coking coal main contract has experienced a price rise of 2% in a single day [1]