免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1126.00 | +24.50↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1674.00 | +39.50↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 646763.00 | +28114.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 41830.00 | -869.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -82202.00 | -2065.00↓ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | 478.00 | +422.00↑ | | | JM9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 84.00 | +1.0 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤春节假期持仓报告：关注上下游复产进程 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 12 日 【行情分析】 年前焦煤进入弱势震荡区间，基本面呈现供需双减格局，节前难有趋势性 行情，随着假期的临近，矿山多发减产停产，截至目前，矿山开工将至 81.39%，且假期期间，蒙煤通关受限，国内焦煤供应收缩，节前印尼暂停出口 的传闻引爆市场，但目前来看，印尼立即暂停出口的消息存在较大的不确定 性，后续国内供应还需等待节后矿山复产的节奏。下游需求端处于季节性淡 季，钢厂焦企维持低位库存刚需补库的状况维持生产节奏，冬储备货同样接近 尾声，节前焦企提涨一轮已落地，焦企利润修复，警惕节后需求复苏不及预期 后，是否有提降概率，目前焦煤维持宽松格局，节后钢厂的复产节奏及矿山复 产进程或影响焦煤价格走势，假期内外盘消息扰动易造成节后开盘的大幅波 动，建议空仓观望为主。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1270 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1018 元/吨，较上个交易日+8 元/吨。 基差方面：主力合约期货收盘价 1120 元/吨，山西介休基差 150 元/吨，较 上个交易日+3. ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 11 日 【行情分析】 焦煤低开高走，尾盘跳水。春节前焦煤供应进入明显收缩期，且过年期间 蒙煤通关也将受限，部分大型煤矿库存假期内继续发运，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 86.67%，环比减少 2.46%。原煤日均 产量达到 192.53 万吨。假期临近，矿山安全检查及停产增多，下游冬储备货收 尾中，矿山焦煤库存去化，周度环比减少 2.53 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 67.6 万吨，钢厂累库 9.84 万吨，冬储补库依然在继续，距离春节假期依然有两周备 货时间，库存将继续下沉，但目前已接近尾声阶段。下游钢材成交量不佳，下 游铁水产量环比增加 0.26%，周度日均产量 228.58 万吨。春节前焦煤矿山收 紧，下游端同样季节性收紧，春节后随着钢厂的复产。盘面有酝酿行情的机 会，节前偏弱震荡。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1270 元/吨，较上个交易日-10 元/吨，蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1018 元/吨，较上个交易日+8 元/吨。 基差方面：主力合约期货收盘价 1123. ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1020 元/吨，较上个交易日+17 元/吨。 基差方面：主力合约期货收盘价 1155.5 元/吨，山西介休基差 144.5 元/吨， 较上个交易日+9.5 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 介休主焦煤现货价（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 介休基差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 焦煤日报：下游补库力度继续，盘面偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内高开高走，日内上涨。供应端，春节临近，国内矿山逐渐开启假 期，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 89.13%，环 比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。本期焦煤矿山库存转为累库， ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the coke and coking coal industries are "Oscillating Weakly" under the dual influence of macro and micro factors [1]. Core View - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan/ton (-4.3%); the closing price of J2605 was 1673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan/ton (-2.8%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: JM2605 had a trading volume of 1,088,191 lots, an open interest of 532,732 lots, and an open interest change of 29,998 lots; J2605 had a trading volume of 22,017 lots, an open interest of 38,429 lots, and an open interest change of 792 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan, which decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 1220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2605 in Shanxi increased by 50.5 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton; the basis of J2605 in Shanxi's quasi - first - grade delivered - to - factory price increased by 47.5 yuan/ton to - 141.5 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2605 and JM2609 remained unchanged at - 79.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between J2605 and J2609 increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **CCI Index**: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur primary coking coal (S0.7) was 1608, CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.3) was 1260, and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.6) was 1249 [1]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On January 19, the total online auction listing volume of coking coal was 294,000 tons, with a failure - to - sell rate of 1%, a 5% decrease from last Friday. The average premium was 33.15 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was active, with most prices rising by 8 - 46 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for coke is 0, and for coking coal is also 0 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, meaning it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Coke: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] Report's Core View - The overall market sentiment is cautious, and the supply-demand contradictions in various sectors are not significant. Different products are expected to have different trends, mainly including interval oscillations, weak oscillations, etc., and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends, policy expectations, and cost support [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's market rose first and then fell. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and molten iron production has declined. From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December. The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious. The market is expected to oscillate within an interval in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today's market oscillated weakly. On the supply side, global shipments have seasonally declined month-on-month, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventory continues to show an accumulation trend. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved month-on-month. This week, molten iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, and the fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high-level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventory has slightly increased. The purchasing intention of traders has improved. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total coking coal inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, coke is likely to follow a weak oscillation trend [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 trucks. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the market price, the transaction price has also increased, and the terminal inventory has increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the market's winter storage actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, the price is likely to oscillate weakly [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound in the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore have all increased last week. On the demand side, molten iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the silicon manganese inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [7] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations for a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high-level range. The export demand has decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. Overall, the demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [8]

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.17% to 1173.5 CNY/ton as of January 15 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, the main coking coal futures contract has decreased significantly, indicating a weak market performance [1] - The average daily production of raw coal reached 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons compared to the previous period, while the average daily production of coking coal was 769,000 tons, up by 3.4% [2] - The total inventory of raw coal rose to 5.499 million tons, increasing by 765,000 tons, while the inventory of coking coal decreased to 2.724 million tons, down by 226,000 tons [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is at 88.5%, reflecting a 3.1% increase week-on-week, indicating a recovery in production [2] - Downstream enterprises are showing increased enthusiasm for purchasing and stockpiling, with market confidence recovering and overall procurement willingness improving [4] - Domestic coal mines have ended their year-end production cuts, with production gradually resuming, leading to a marginal increase in coal output [4] Group 3: Export and Auction Insights - According to data from the Gladstone Port Company, coal exports are projected to reach 6.5701 million tons by December 2025, marking an 11.39% increase month-on-month and a 14.8% increase year-on-year [2] - The Mongolian ER Company held an online auction for coking coal, with all 12,800 tons sold at a price of 900 CNY/ton, which is 15 CNY lower than the previous day [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that coking coal futures have surged by 8%, currently priced at 1227 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The significant increase in coking coal futures indicates a strong market demand or potential supply constraints [1] - This price movement may impact related industries, particularly steel production, which relies heavily on coking coal [1] - Investors should monitor the coking coal market for further developments that could influence pricing trends [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that coking coal futures have increased by 2% in a single day, currently priced at 1075.00 yuan [1] Group 2 - The increase in coking coal prices indicates a potential upward trend in the market, which may attract investor interest [1] - The report highlights the significance of coking coal in the industry, particularly in steel production, which could impact related sectors [1] - The price movement may reflect broader economic conditions and demand for steel, suggesting a correlation between coking coal prices and industrial activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coking coal futures have seen a daily increase of 2%, currently priced at 1075.00 yuan [1] Group 1 - Coking coal main contract has experienced a price rise of 2% in a single day [1]