Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Hot-rolled coil prices broke through the support level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from August to September. It is recommended to try shorting the October hot-rolled coil contract at 3380 - 3400 [1]. - Currently, steel mill production remains at a high level. Seasonal decline in rebar demand in August has led to an increase in inventory, with production higher than apparent demand. After the previous price increase, funds are betting on a decline in demand in the second half of the year [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to recover [3]. - Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, the molten iron output in August will decline slightly from the high level, with an average expected to be maintained at around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel mill inventory is increasing, and the restocking demand has weakened. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking demand. There is still an expectation of a seventh round of price increase for coke. The futures price of coke is at a premium to the spot price, providing a hedging opportunity. The cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the previous bullish expectations may have been fully overdrawn [5]. - For coking coal, the spot fundamentals have returned to stable operation. The previous futures price increase has already factored in the expectation of coal mine production restrictions. It is recommended to short on rallies for speculation and conduct a reverse spread trade for the 9 - 1 contract [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices generally declined. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar widened to around 290 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of various steelmaking processes decreased, and the profits of different regions and varieties also declined [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, while the rebar output decreased slightly. The output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Transaction and Demand - The transaction volume of building materials and the apparent demand of five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract increased. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and the global weekly shipment volume increased significantly, and the monthly national import volume also increased [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly, while the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased, and the number of available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and declined. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased, while the prices of coke increased after the sixth round of price increase and the seventh round of price increase was initiated [5]. Supply - The coke production increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, and the production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly. The raw coal production decreased slightly, and the clean coal production increased slightly [5]. Demand - The molten iron output increased slightly, and the coke production increased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke remains resilient, but the restocking demand has weakened [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. The coking coal inventory decreased in coking plants and steel mills, increased slightly in ports, and the inventory in coal mines decreased at a slower pace [5].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The short - term steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has a low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer, and the price of the October contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to operate on the long side during the callback, and pay attention to the support levels of 3400 and 3200 yuan for the October contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar respectively. Be cautious about chasing long positions. [1] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures contracts generally declined. The prices of steel billets decreased, while the prices of slab remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profits of rebar in some regions also increased. [1] - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products increased by 0.2%, the rebar output increased by 4.8% (with the electric - furnace output increasing by 15.4% and the converter output increasing by 3.3%), and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.7%, the rebar inventory increased by 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.5%. The increase in social steel inventory in the past two weeks was mainly due to the positive arbitrage of spot - futures traders. [1] - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.2%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.3%. [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile trend. In the future, the iron water output in August will remain high, and the improvement of steel mill profits will support the raw materials. However, due to the weakening of steel apparent demand in the off - season, the previous trading logic has been overdrawn. It is recommended to take profit and wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage operations. [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some iron ore varieties' warehouse receipt costs and spot prices changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.5%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 61.5%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.3%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 5.0%, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 0.5%. The monthly national import volume increased by 8.0%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 6.3%, the monthly national pig iron output decreased by 3.0%, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 3.9%. [4] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8%. [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The coke futures showed a trend of reaching the peak and then falling back, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The sixth round of price increase of coke has been officially implemented, and there may be further price increases in the future. However, due to factors such as over - drawn bullish expectations and exchange intervention, the current long - side logic has changed. It is recommended to take profit and wait and see for both speculative and arbitrage operations. For coking coal, similar to iron ore, it is also recommended to take profit and wait and see for single - side and arbitrage operations. [6] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some coke and coking coal varieties and their spreads changed. The coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased. The overseas coal prices of some varieties also changed. [6] - **Supply**: The weekly coke output of the full - sample coking plants increased slightly by 0.4%, and the weekly coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1.1%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 1.1%. [6] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The demand for coke is related to the pig iron output. [6] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.94%, the coke inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 5.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the port coke inventory increased by 1.4%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 5.7%, the coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the port coking coal inventory decreased by 1.7%. [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that coking coal futures experienced a significant fluctuation, with the main contract initially dropping over 4% before recovering to a 1% increase within the trading day [1] Group 2 - The news highlights the volatility in the coking coal market, indicating potential trading opportunities for investors [1] - The price movement suggests a reaction to market conditions that could be influenced by supply and demand dynamics [1] - The fluctuation in coking coal prices may impact related industries, particularly steel production, which relies heavily on this commodity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is showing strength, with the main contract reaching 808.0 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.15% [1] Supply Side - Safety inspections in the Linfen Guxian area have intensified, leading to the suspension of coal transportation from some mines and washing plants [2] - The Mongolian small TT company's online auction for coking coal saw all 10.24 million tons go unsold, with a starting price of 63.5 USD/ton, down 1.5 USD/ton from the previous auction [2] - The operating rate of 110 washing plants nationwide decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, with a daily average output of 501,500 tons, a reduction of 8,400 tons from the previous period [2] Demand Side - Due to accidents, environmental regulations, and losses, many coal mines have reduced production, leading to a noticeable decrease in supply [3] - Coking enterprises are cautiously increasing their procurement, with improved transaction volumes for coking coal and a decrease in auction failure rates [3] - After four rounds of price reductions, coking enterprises are facing increased losses, leading to expectations of production cuts and cautious raw material procurement [3]

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal has seen a daily decline of 4%, currently priced at 758.5 yuan per ton [1]