随着2025年接近尾声，市场对铁矿石价格走势的关注逐步转向2026年。从澳大利亚政府和主要金融机构 近期发布的报告来看，尽管对具体价格水平存在分歧，但多数分析机构认为，在全球供应持续扩张、需 求增长有限的背景下，澳大利亚铁矿石价格在2026年面临明显下行压力。 以澳大利亚主流粉矿为主要定价样本的62%品位铁矿石现货价格（青岛到岸价）自2025年8月以来稳定 在每吨100美元以上。由于中国铁矿石买家增加库存，铁矿石价格短期内仍保持稳定。 澳国库部与财政部在17日发布2025-2026财年年中经济与财政展望报告中也提到，自4月以来大宗商品价 格出现小幅上涨，其中铁矿石价格上涨是受到中国持续出台的经济增长支持政策的支撑。 不过，澳政府认为澳大利亚铁矿石价格中期回落的趋势已经明确。《资源与能源季报》指出，随着澳大 利亚本土及其他地区新增产能逐步投放，全球铁矿石市场供给将继续增长，而钢铁需求增长相对温和， 澳大利亚铁矿石价格（FOB）预计将从2024年的每吨93美元降至2025年的平均每吨87美元，再降至2026 年的每吨85美元，然后在2027年进一步降至每吨82美元。 国库部和财政部也在展望报告中对铁矿石价格做了技 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has downgraded Rio Tinto's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" due to multiple adverse factors including an upcoming CEO transition, increased U.S. aluminum import tariffs, and expectations of softening iron ore prices [1][2] Group 1: Company-Specific Factors - The downgrade is influenced by concerns over the upcoming CEO change and the impact of U.S. aluminum tariffs on the company's operations [1] - There are worries regarding the capital expenditure required for Rio Tinto's lithium business, which may lead to increased capital intensity and lower returns if the company's expectations for the lithium market are overly optimistic [1] - The anticipated increase in capital spending for the lithium business is expected to pressure Rio Tinto's free cash flow, as it may not yield corresponding revenue increases in the short term [1] Group 2: Market and Industry Outlook - Jefferies analysts do not hold a bearish view on the iron ore outlook but believe that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, a persistently weak real estate market, structural adjustments leading to steel production cuts, and seasonal demand weakness will contribute to a downward trend in iron ore prices [1] - The long-term price forecast for iron ore is set at $90 per ton, with slight downside risks [1] - Jefferies expresses a more favorable investment outlook for Glencore, Anglo American, and Vale compared to Rio Tinto and BHP [2]