Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken as demand resilience fades and supply pressure increases, which will cause the overvalued iron ore price to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market during the peak season [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance and Support Factors - Since August, the iron ore price has been oscillating at a high level with a significantly stronger overall trend compared to other ferrous metal varieties. The support comes from stable steel - mill production and high terminal consumption of ore, as well as the intervention of variety arbitrage funds [2]. Valuation Situation - Iron ore is a relatively over - valued variety in the ferrous metal industry chain. The absolute price of iron ore is close to the annual high, and the basis is at a low level in the same period over the years. The relative valuation shows that the ratios of iron ore to steel and iron ore to coke are approaching historical highs, and steel - mill profits are shrinking [3]. Demand Situation - The terminal consumption of iron ore has been declining, with the daily average hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of 247 sample steel mills showing a downward trend as of the week ending August 29. Although the high - frequency demand indicators are still at a relatively high level and the peak season is approaching, steel - mill profitability is deteriorating, and downstream demand for building materials and exports are weak, so iron ore demand is weakening [4]. Supply Situation - Overseas miners are actively shipping, and the global weekly iron ore shipment has reached a new high this year. The supply increase mainly comes from Brazilian ore and non - mainstream ore. The arrival volume at domestic ports has increased, and there is still room for growth in subsequent arrivals, so the supply pressure of iron ore will continue to increase [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of iron ore is 2, indicating a strong bullish view. The range of trend strength is [-2, 2], where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term valuation of iron ore still has support from macro and micro aspects [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 770.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton or -0.32% from the previous day. The previous day's position was 452,625 hands, with an increase of 1,051 hands [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Imported ore prices generally declined. For example, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped from 881.0 to 877.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) from 769.0 to 767.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba (61%) from 745.0 to 740.0 yuan/ton. The price of Super Special (56.5%) remained unchanged at 650.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ore prices of Youbang (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained at 922.0 and 840.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to 88.3 yuan/ton, while the basis of 12601 against Jinbuba decreased by 2.9 yuan/ton to 50.9 yuan/ton. The spread of 12509 - 12601 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 19.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 12601 - 12605 decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 22.5 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás fines - PB fines decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 110.0 yuan/ton, PB fines - Jinbuba increased by 3.0 yuan/ton to 27.0 yuan/ton, and PB fines - Super Special decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 117.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - All activities at the SimFer mine site are currently suspended due to a fatal incident. Rio Tinto reported an employee of a contracting company died at the SimFer mine in Guinea on August 22 [2] - On August 23, Fed Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting that although inflation remains a concern, rising risks in the job market may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September [2]