Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken as demand resilience fades and supply pressure increases, which will cause the overvalued iron ore price to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market during the peak season [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance and Support Factors - Since August, the iron ore price has been oscillating at a high level with a significantly stronger overall trend compared to other ferrous metal varieties. The support comes from stable steel - mill production and high terminal consumption of ore, as well as the intervention of variety arbitrage funds [2]. Valuation Situation - Iron ore is a relatively over - valued variety in the ferrous metal industry chain. The absolute price of iron ore is close to the annual high, and the basis is at a low level in the same period over the years. The relative valuation shows that the ratios of iron ore to steel and iron ore to coke are approaching historical highs, and steel - mill profits are shrinking [3]. Demand Situation - The terminal consumption of iron ore has been declining, with the daily average hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of 247 sample steel mills showing a downward trend as of the week ending August 29. Although the high - frequency demand indicators are still at a relatively high level and the peak season is approaching, steel - mill profitability is deteriorating, and downstream demand for building materials and exports are weak, so iron ore demand is weakening [4]. Supply Situation - Overseas miners are actively shipping, and the global weekly iron ore shipment has reached a new high this year. The supply increase mainly comes from Brazilian ore and non - mainstream ore. The arrival volume at domestic ports has increased, and there is still room for growth in subsequent arrivals, so the supply pressure of iron ore will continue to increase [5][6].

铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 770. 0 | -2.5 | -0. 32% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 452. 625 | 1.051 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉 (65%) | 877.0 | 881.0 | -4. 0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 767.0 | 769.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 740. 0 | 745. 0 | -5.0 | | | | 超特(56.5%) | 650. 0 | 650. 0 | 0. 0 | | | 国产矿 | 邮邦 (66%) | 922. 0 | 922. 0 | 0. 0 | | | | 莱芜(65%) | 840. 0 | 840. 0 | 0. 0 | | 价差 | | | 昨日(元/吨) | ...