商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12605 | | 813.0 | -15.0 | -1.81% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 636. 674 | -29.907 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉（65%） | 907. 0 | 910. 0 | -3.0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 829.0 | 832. 0 | -3.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 782. 0 | 785. 0 | -3.0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 707. 0 | 710. 0 | -3.0 | | | 国产矿 | 部那 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that iron ore is experiencing repeated fluctuations at high levels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I 2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.58%. The position was 580,731 lots, with an increase of 13,627 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Imported ore prices increased slightly, with the price of Carajás fines (65%) rising to 874.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) rising to 797.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) rising to 750.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton; and Super Special fines (56.5%) rising to 675.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ore prices remained stable [1] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I 2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton to 102.8 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jinbuba fines decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton to 48.7 yuan/ton. The spread between I 2605 and I 2609 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton, and the spread between I 2601 and I 2605 decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 18.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 77.0 yuan/ton, and the price difference between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 122.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, the total profit of state - holding enterprises was 2,008.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; that of joint - stock enterprises was 4,956.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.4%; that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1,635.53 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%; and that of private enterprises was 1,931.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [1]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view of the report: The iron ore market is affected by multiple events and shows a moderately strong and fluctuating trend. The trend strength of iron ore is 1, indicating a moderately positive view [1] Group 3 Summary based on relevant catalogs - **Fundamental tracking**: - **Futures**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 780.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The position was 447,365 lots, a decrease of 26,627 lots [1] - **Spot prices**: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 918 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 779 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 748 yuan/ton, unchanged; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 708 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Langna (66%) was 952 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu (65%) was 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Spreads**: The basis of 12601 against Super Special fines was 141.5 yuan/ton, up 4.6 yuan/ton; against Jinbuba fines was 49.1 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton. The spread between 12509 and 12601 was -40 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; between 12601 and 12605 was 21 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines was 139 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; between PB fines and Jinbuba fines was 31 yuan/ton, unchanged; between PB fines and Super Special fines was 71 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - **Macro and industry news**: Affected by the US government shutdown, the data on the change in non - farm payrolls in the US in September and the US unemployment rate in September, originally scheduled to be announced at 20:30 Beijing time, have not been released [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on iron ore, stating that its expectations are fluctuating and it is in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the 12601 iron ore futures was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan/ton or - 0.76%. The yesterday's position was 473,992 hands, with a decrease of 34,937 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Imported ores like 65% Carajás fines dropped from 920.0 to 915.0 yuan/ton, 61.5% PB fines from 785.0 to 780.0 yuan/ton, 61% Jimbobara from 755.0 to 750.0 yuan/ton, and 56.5% Super Special from 713.0 to 710.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ores such as 66% Youbang and 65% Laiwu remained unchanged at 952.0 and 870.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.7 yuan/ton to 140.2 yuan/ton, while the basis of 12601 against Jimbobara decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 47.7 yuan/ton. The spread of 12509 - 12601 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to - 41.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 12601 - 12605 increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 21.5 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB spread remained at 135.0 yuan/ton, the PB - Jimbobara spread at 30.0 yuan/ton, and the PB - Super Special spread decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 70.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of iron ore is 2, indicating a strong bullish view. The range of trend strength is [-2, 2], where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term valuation of iron ore still has support from macro and micro aspects [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 770.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton or -0.32% from the previous day. The previous day's position was 452,625 hands, with an increase of 1,051 hands [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Imported ore prices generally declined. For example, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped from 881.0 to 877.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) from 769.0 to 767.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba (61%) from 745.0 to 740.0 yuan/ton. The price of Super Special (56.5%) remained unchanged at 650.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ore prices of Youbang (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained at 922.0 and 840.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to 88.3 yuan/ton, while the basis of 12601 against Jinbuba decreased by 2.9 yuan/ton to 50.9 yuan/ton. The spread of 12509 - 12601 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 19.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 12601 - 12605 decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 22.5 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás fines - PB fines decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 110.0 yuan/ton, PB fines - Jinbuba increased by 3.0 yuan/ton to 27.0 yuan/ton, and PB fines - Super Special decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 117.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - All activities at the SimFer mine site are currently suspended due to a fatal incident. Rio Tinto reported an employee of a contracting company died at the SimFer mine in Guinea on August 22 [2] - On August 23, Fed Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting that although inflation remains a concern, rising risks in the job market may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand for iron ore has reached a phased peak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - The trend strength of iron ore is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Key Sections Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 718.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton or -1.24%. The position of I2509 was 750,172 hands, a decrease of 6,175 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: Imported ore prices such as Carajás fines (65%) decreased, while domestic ore prices in some areas remained unchanged. For example, Carajás fines dropped from 850.0 to 845.0 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2505 against Super Special and Jinbuba increased, while some spreads such as Carajás fines - PB decreased slightly [1] Macro and Industry News - On May 20, the 5 - year LPR dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR dropped from 3.1% to 3.0% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that iron ore prices will experience wide - range fluctuations due to the boost of macro - expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 737.0 yuan/ton, with a rise of 22.5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 3.15%. The previous day's position was 744,359 hands, with an increase of 30,334 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices such as Carajas fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jinbuba (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) all increased, while domestic ore prices of Langna (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of 12505 against Super Special changed by 0.1 yuan/ton, and the basis of 12505 against Jinbuba decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton. Various spreads such as 12509 - 12601, 12505 - 12509, Carajas fines - PB fines, PB fines - Jinbuba, and PB fines - Super Special also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - As of the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8% according to central bank data [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].