商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铁矿石：多事件扰动，偏强震荡 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 780. 5 | -3.5 | -0. 45% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 447. 365 | -26.627 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 讲口矿 | 卡粉（65%） | 918. 0 | 917.0 | 1.0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 779.0 | 779.0 | 0. 0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on iron ore, stating that its expectations are fluctuating and it is in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the 12601 iron ore futures was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan/ton or - 0.76%. The yesterday's position was 473,992 hands, with a decrease of 34,937 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Imported ores like 65% Carajás fines dropped from 920.0 to 915.0 yuan/ton, 61.5% PB fines from 785.0 to 780.0 yuan/ton, 61% Jimbobara from 755.0 to 750.0 yuan/ton, and 56.5% Super Special from 713.0 to 710.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ores such as 66% Youbang and 65% Laiwu remained unchanged at 952.0 and 870.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.7 yuan/ton to 140.2 yuan/ton, while the basis of 12601 against Jimbobara decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 47.7 yuan/ton. The spread of 12509 - 12601 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to - 41.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 12601 - 12605 increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 21.5 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB spread remained at 135.0 yuan/ton, the PB - Jimbobara spread at 30.0 yuan/ton, and the PB - Super Special spread decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 70.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [1].

铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 770. 0 | -2.5 | -0. 32% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 452. 625 | 1.051 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉 (65%) | 877.0 | 881.0 | -4. 0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 767.0 | 769.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 740. 0 | 745. 0 | -5.0 | | | | 超特(56.5%) | 650. 0 | 650. 0 | 0. 0 | | | 国产矿 | 邮邦 (66%) | 922. 0 | 922. 0 | 0. 0 | | | | 莱芜(65%) | 840. 0 | 840. 0 | 0. 0 | | 价差 | | | 昨日(元/吨) | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that iron ore prices will experience wide - range fluctuations due to the boost of macro - expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 737.0 yuan/ton, with a rise of 22.5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 3.15%. The previous day's position was 744,359 hands, with an increase of 30,334 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices such as Carajas fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jinbuba (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) all increased, while domestic ore prices of Langna (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of 12505 against Super Special changed by 0.1 yuan/ton, and the basis of 12505 against Jinbuba decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton. Various spreads such as 12509 - 12601, 12505 - 12509, Carajas fines - PB fines, PB fines - Jinbuba, and PB fines - Super Special also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - As of the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8% according to central bank data [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].