1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract weakened with a reduction in positions. The Fed Chair's statement eased market concerns about interest rate hikes, and traders considered the possibility of rate cuts this year. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills continued to rise, port inventories declined, and the expected increase in demand will drive further inventory reduction. However, due to Trump's statement, oil prices fell, leading to a general decline in commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows a downward adjustment of DIFF and DEA. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 808.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the position volume was 353,624 hands, down 17,797 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 784 hands, up 6,329 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 0.00 hands, down 2,700.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.45 US dollars/ton at 15:00, down 0.78 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 828 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 742 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 20 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 108.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.16, down 0.04. The estimated import cost was 863 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 2,472.40 tons, down 671.90 tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,626.70 tons, up 243.60 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,666.83 tons, down 147.35 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,978.56 tons, down 55.50 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 25.00 days, up 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.16 tons, down 0.69 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.62%, down 0.67%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.95 tons, down 1.18 tons. The BDI index was 2,017.00, down 14.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 30.21 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.98 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, up 1.10%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.67%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.93%, down 0.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 19.32%, down 2.63%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.74%, down 2.34% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipments were 2,472.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1,875.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 684.3 tons. Australian shipments were 1,033.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 839.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 tons. Brazilian shipments were 841.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 tons. From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,626.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,426.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,198.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The short - term supply contraction supports the high - level operation of the ore price, but the demand growth space is limited, and the high - valued ore price continues to face pressure [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating and slightly stronger, with a high - level oscillating view. The core logic is the short - term supply contraction and high - level operation of the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mills are actively producing, and the demand for ore is continuously improving, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, and the growth space is limited. The arrival at domestic ports has increased significantly, while the shipments of miners have declined from a high level under the influence of hurricanes, resulting in a short - term contraction of overseas ore supply, and the domestic ore supply is weakly stable. Short - term bullish factors support the high - level operation of the ore price, but the demand growth space is limited, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved substantially, so the high - valued ore price continues to face pressure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas mainstream iron ore mine shipments have significantly declined due to factors such as weather, but the arrival volume has temporarily increased. Iron ore demand shows that hot metal production continues to rise, while the port clearance volume has decreased. Although the supply contraction supports the iron ore price, the high port inventory limits its upward space. [3] - The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, with the overall coking coal mine operating rate rising and high Mongolian coal customs clearance. The demand side shows an increase in both supply and demand, and the downstream coking enterprise profits have shrunk. There is still rigid demand support for coking coal and coke, and the first - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented soon, but the upward momentum is insufficient. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate within a limited range. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the crude oil price has fallen after a sharp rise, weakening the support for coking coal and coke. The futures market faces pressure, but the spot market has a strong willingness to hold prices. The price of prime coking coal has been raised, and iron ore has been oscillating at a high level. [8] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The iron ore price index is 109.8 (down 1.36% month - on - month, up 5.13% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil are 1875.1 tons (down 26.7% month - on - month, down 27.3% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2426.3 tons (up 6.81% month - on - month, up 8.14% year - on - year). [15] Demand - The daily hot metal production is 231.09 tons (up 2.94 tons month - on - month, down 6.19 tons year - on - year). The port clearance volume at 45 ports is 313.17 tons (down 2.43% month - on - month, down 0.01% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises is 31.55 days (down 1.81% month - on - month, up 1.64% year - on - year). [20] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports is 17000.31 tons (down 0.57% month - on - month, up 17.50% year - on - year). The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8978.56 tons (down 0.61% month - on - month, down 1.45% year - on - year). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises is 24.04 days (up 0.67% month - on - month, down 1.15% year - on - year). [25] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The operating rate of coking coal mines is 89.16% (up 0.64% month - on - month, up 2.29% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants is 34.78% (up 5.36% month - on - month, down 0.17% year - on - year). The average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 17.94 tons (up 5.88% month - on - month, up 90.40% year - on - year). [30] Coking Enterprises - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is +21 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 74 yuan/ton year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 74.86% (up 0.74% month - on - month, up 4.12% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke is 86.4% (down 0.07% month - on - month, down 1.44% year - on - year). [37] Coking Coal Inventory - The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 885.12 tons (up 4.47% month - on - month, up 21.26% year - on - year). The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 782.23 tons (up 1.05% month - on - month, up 2.59% year - on - year). The coking coal inventory at ports is 269.44 tons (up 1.69% month - on - month, down 25.70% year - on - year). [43] Coke Inventory - The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 49.78 tons (down 5.09% month - on - month, down 28.57% year - on - year). The coke inventory of steel mills is 691.67 tons (up 0.51% month - on - month, up 3.52% year - on - year). The coke inventory at ports is 216.11 tons (up 8.53% month - on - month, up 0.46% year - on - year). [49] Spot Price - The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1340 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month, up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year). The price of low - sulfur prime coking coal in Shanxi is 1580 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, up 310 yuan/ton year - on - year). [52] 3.4 Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is oscillating at a high level, and the spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 is narrowing. [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated. The macro - situation shows that US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with NATO, and considered whether the US should withdraw from NATO. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. There is a shortage of mainstream high - grade resources at ports, while the tradable resources of other mainstream varieties are relatively sufficient. Most steel mills have gradually resumed production, increasing the demand for iron ore. Recently, the iron ore price has continued to rise due to positive factors, but now the futures price faces resistance around 820. With the high - level correction of international oil prices weakening the support, the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis with the green bar expanding. It is expected that the short - term price may fluctuate between 800 - 820. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 811.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan; the position volume is 455,521 hands, down 6,207 hands. The 5 - 9 contract spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 23,032 hands, up 1,154 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,400.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 107.5 US dollars/ton, down 1.30 US dollars. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 840 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 756 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 29 yuan, up 12 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 110.00 US dollars/ton, up 1.20 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.15, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 872 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,048.80 tons, up 151.00 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,317.00 tons, down 380.50 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,947.32 tons, up 52.49 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,929.10 tons, down 82.47 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 21.00 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.81 tons, up 1.21 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 62.49%, up 1.59%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 47.68 tons, down 2.49 tons. The BDI index is 2,024.00, down 14.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 29.90 US dollars/ton, up 0.10 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 12.725 US dollars/ton, down 0.75 US dollars. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.36%, up 0.67%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 82.90%, down 2.40%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.67%, up 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.18%, up 0.06%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 18.81%, down 1.42%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.97%, down 1.57%. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 9th to March 15th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,048.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 151.0 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,464.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.3 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,875.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.1 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,587.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 121.3 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 589.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons. - From March 9th to March 15th, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,317.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 380.5 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,215.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394.9 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,230.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234.3 tons. [2]

Report Title - Iron Ore Weekly Report [1] Report Date - March 8, 2026 [2] Report Analyst - Li Yafei, Investment Consulting Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core View - The transportation cost has increased, leading to a slight rebound in iron ore prices. The iron ore supply and demand are loose. The previous 05 contract fell to the cost support of around $90/ton, and further decline requires the falsification of steel demand, which has not occurred yet. Due to the conflict between the US and Iran, the energy cost has increased significantly, driving the expected rebound of ore prices [3][5] Summary by Directory Iron Ore Supply - Global shipments reached 33.407 million tons, a 0.6% increase from last week and a 1.6% decrease from the same period last year. Australian shipments were 18.797 million tons, a 4.5% decrease from last week and a 2.9% decrease from the same period last year. Brazilian shipments were 7.377 million tons, a 7.4% increase from last week and a 7.3% decrease from the same period last year [4] - The arrivals at 45 ports were 21.469 million tons, a 0.3% decrease from last week and a 19.1% increase from the same period last year [4] - The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines is at a high level. The four major mines maintain normal shipping levels. Domestic mines have resumed production after the holiday, and the output has increased [15][20][22][33] Iron Ore Demand - The iron water output was 2.2759 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from last week and a 1.3% decrease from the same period last year. Due to northern production restrictions, low steel mill profits, and slow iron water resumption, the demand expectation is poor, and the replenishment demand trading is completed. The demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4][34][38][39] - The high - medium grade price spread and the lump - powder price spread have widened. The cost - performance of scrap steel is lower than that of iron water [44][45] Iron Ore Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports was 171.1786 million tons, a 0.2% increase from last week and a 17.4% increase from the same period last year. In the context of weak demand expectations, steel mills are expected to purchase on demand, and Australian ore inventory has increased significantly [4][47][50] Iron Ore Price Spread - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 764 (+13) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 772 (+22) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 23 (-8) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 25.5 (+6) yuan/ton. The near - month transportation cost has increased, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended [6][10] Iron Ore Cost - Oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in freight costs [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. During the Two Sessions, environmental protection restrictions have tightened, leading to a decline in the terminal consumption of iron ore. The daily average hot metal production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased week - on - week. The profitability of steel mills is poor, and industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, so the demand for iron ore continues to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports is at a low level, while the shipments of miners remain high. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival will increase. Overseas ore supply is rising, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is increasing. In general, the demand for iron ore is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, putting pressure on iron ore prices. The relative positive factor is that the freight cost increase caused by the Middle East conflict supports the iron ore price. Under the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that the iron ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Data Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 17,117.86, with a week - on - week increase of 25.90 and a year - on - year increase of 1,725.33 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,011.57, with a week - on - week decrease of 73.53 and a year - on - year decrease of 131.24 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,146.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.50 and a year - on - year increase of 269.40 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume is 3,340.74, with a week - on - week increase of 19.84 and a year - on - year increase of 1,005.84 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills is 227.59, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.69 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.40 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The 45 - port daily average ore - dispatching volume is 311.08, with a week - on - week increase of 12.60 and a year - on - year increase of 29.59 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 280.85, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.86 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.94 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 83.78, with a week - on - week increase of 26.88 and a year - on - year decrease of 14.67 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply and demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The demand for iron ore is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals of the ore market remain weak. However, the increase in transportation costs due to conflicts provides support for the ore price. The ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillation", and the intraday trend is "oscillation and weakening". It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Environmental protection restrictions have led to a decline in the terminal consumption of ore, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The industrial contradictions in the steel market are also accumulating, resulting in weak ore demand. On the supply side, although the arrival of goods at domestic ports is at a low level, the shipments of miners remain high. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will increase, the overseas ore supply will increase, and domestic ore production is also recovering, so the ore supply will return to a high level. Overall, the ore market fundamentals remain weak, and the ore price is still under pressure. The increase in transportation costs due to conflicts provides support for the ore price. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current iron ore supply and demand are loose, with the global shipment increasing slightly week - on - week and remaining at a high level year - on - year. Australian ore shipments decreased slightly, while Brazilian and non - mainstream ore shipments increased. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and domestic ore production decreased slightly. There is still supply pressure. [5][6] - After the Spring Festival, the hot metal production has rebounded, but steel mills mainly consume existing inventories, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. As the hot metal production gradually recovers in the later stage, it is expected that steel mills' procurement of raw ore will gradually increase. [6] - Port inventories are at an absolute high level, and steel mill inventories have dropped to a low level. Overall, with the recovery of demand in the later stage, there is expected to be certain support at the bottom. The strategy is low - level oscillation. [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price - Spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The 62% Australian powder ore forward spot price, Qingdao Port 62% PB powder price, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate price are involved. [7][12] - The spread between high - and medium - grade ores widened, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores remained stable. The spread between PB powder and Mac powder increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread rebounded slightly at a low level, and the 05 basis decreased slightly. [13][16][21] - As of March 2, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder was 886 (up 27 week - on - week), the converted futures price was 832 (up 29 week - on - week); the spot price of PB powder was 754 (up 10 week - on - week), the converted futures price was 801 (up 11 week - on - week); the spot price of Super Special powder was 645 (up 7 week - on - week), the converted futures price was 844 (up 8 week - on - week). The high - medium grade spread was 132, and the medium - low grade spread was 109. The optimal deliverable product was 61.5% Brazilian coarse ore. [30] - The ratio of steel to ore fluctuated within a narrow range at a low level, and the ratio of ore to coke oscillated at a high level. [31] Supply - From February 23 to March 1, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3407 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,800 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9484 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62,300 tons; Brazilian shipments were 737,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,100 tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 1.2312 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,800 tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2.1469 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,500 tons. [5] - As of February 27, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 43,240 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68%. The mine concentrate inventory was 81,370 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,130 tons. [5] - The shipping price index increased slightly. The arrival volume decreased slightly and remained at a medium level. [54][58] Demand - In the week of February 27, the daily average hot metal production was 233,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,790 tons. After the Spring Festival, the hot metal production stabilized and rebounded, slightly exceeding market expectations, with certain rigid - demand restocking. [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits decreased slightly, blast furnace operation increased slightly, and hot metal production increased slightly. [67][73] Inventory - In this period, the imported ore inventory increased slightly, the number of ships at the port decreased by 8 to 107, the port congestion decreased slightly, the arrival volume was at a medium level, and due to the significant decrease in the port clearance volume, the port inventory increased slightly, which put pressure on the ore price. Steel mill inventories decreased significantly and continued to maintain a low - inventory strategy. [5] - The port clearance volume decreased significantly, and the port inventory increased slightly. Australian ore inventory continued to increase, Brazilian ore inventory decreased slightly, coarse powder inventory remained at a high level, and lump ore inventory increased slightly. After the Spring Festival, steel mill inventories dropped to a low level. [82][86][102]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore 2605 is expected to be volatile in the short - term and medium - term, and slightly weak in the intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The current situation is weak, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The ore price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the博弈 between the positive policy expectations and the poor fundamentals of iron ore [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "slightly weak". The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the current situation is weak and the ore price will continue to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills' production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to rise. However, steel mills' profitability is poor, the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the room for demand growth is limited, so the boosting effect is not strong. The arrival of goods at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipments of miners have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will increase significantly, and domestic ore production will resume, so the ore supply will increase. In conclusion, although the iron ore demand has improved, the room for growth is uncertain, while the supply has returned to a high level, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved, so the ore price is likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong policy expectations. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term under - allocation for iron ore [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term macro - economic outlook is weak, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, supply remains high year - on - year, and iron ore demand is still restricted by industrial chain profits and production restrictions during the conference. It is recommended to focus on short - term under - allocation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The overall overseas ore shipments have emerged from the off - season, with a significant increase in the weekly shipment volume this period. The off - season shipments this year have shown above - seasonal growth, and overseas ore shipments are at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The supply of domestic ore is also expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, the supply side has entered a high - shipment stage, providing a downward driving force [3] Demand - Domestic iron ore demand mainly depends on the profit level of steel mills and the degree of steel inventory reduction. Due to the relatively high temperature this year, construction site starts may be advanced, and the market still has a certain optimistic expectation for demand. In the short term, the probability of super - expected growth in terminal demand is low. Later, attention should be paid to the steel inventory reduction node and the intensity of resumption of work. According to the seasonal law, hot metal has entered a recovery cycle, and later more attention should be paid to the recovery speed and height. From the current profit level of steel mills and demand expectation, the recovery speed remains relatively gentle. Coupled with the impact of production restrictions on steel mills in North China during the Two Sessions, the upward driving force of demand is weak [3] Inventory - Steel mills still have restocking demand after the Spring Festival, but the intensity and sustainability of restocking still depend on the recovery of terminal demand. Judging from the current port clearance level, port inventories will still be in a cumulative state. Coupled with the weakening of spot prices, it is expected that the pressure of short - term port inventory accumulation will remain high. At the same time, attention should be paid to the potential selling risk of restricted - trade inventories. The inventory driving force is downward [3] Price - The expected price range is 93 - 100 US dollars per ton (61% index), corresponding to 710 - 760 yuan per ton for Dalian iron ore futures [3] Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [3]