1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by tariff disturbances, with steel prices experiencing increased volatility. The black - series market had a concentrated release of previous bullish sentiment, facing short - term adjustments due to factors such as post - delivery market arrival pressure and recent tariff impacts, but still having upward drivers in the medium term [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory of different steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coils) and raw materials (such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke) show different trends. For example, rebar has limited demand release in the off - season, while hot - rolled coils have a more optimistic demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of raw materials were under pressure at high levels, and steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, with some rising and some falling. The market sentiment cooled down after the exchange adjusted the coking coal handling fee and imposed position limits. Rebar has been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the inventory increase of hot - rolled coils has slowed down, and the social inventory has decreased. In the short - term, the trend of hot - rolled coils is stronger than that of rebar, and the overall market shows an oscillating adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 220.45 million tons (down 0.33% month - on - month and up 32.51% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 315.59 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted [14][16][27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 189.94 million tons (down 9.89% month - on - month and down 4.72% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.75 million tons (up 2.79% month - on - month and up 9.21% year - on - year). Rebar demand declined significantly, while hot - rolled coil demand showed an increase [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 587.19 million tons (up 5.48% month - on - month and down 14.97% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 357.47 million tons (up 0.24% month - on - month and down 20.66% year - on - year). Rebar inventory accumulation expanded, and hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation slowed down [39][44]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both weakened month - on - month. In the automotive market, in July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45][50]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.81 (down 0.37% month - on - month and up 6.71% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2669.7 million tons (up 9.96% month - on - month and up 3.41% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2476.6 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 5.49% year - on - year) [57]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 240.66 million tons (up 0.34 million tons month - on - month and up 11.89 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron ore ports was 334.67 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 2.43% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.61 days (up 1.26% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [62]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 13819.27 million tons (up 0.78% month - on - month and down 8.07% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9136.4 million tons (up 1.37% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year) [68]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.73% (down 0.19% month - on - month and down 7.14% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.51% (up 0.80% month - on - month and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.51 million tons (up 16.60% month - on - month and up 18.28% year - on - year) [74]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 87.72% (up 9.46% week - on - week and up 27.37% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.08% (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 36.73% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was + 20 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 57 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.34% (up 0.42% month - on - month and up 2.07% year - on - year) [82]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 829.31 million tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 23.53% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 805.60 million tons (down 0.36% month - on - month and up 11.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 255.49 million tons (down 7.88% month - on - month and down 25.59% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 39.31 million tons (down 11.92% month - on - month and down 13.98% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 609.8 million tons (down 1.53% month - on - month and up 14.24% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 215.11 million tons (down 1.39% month - on - month and up 14.29% year - on - year) [88][94]. - **Spot Price**: The sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [95]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between rebar contracts 10 - 1 has continued to shrink. The spread between iron ore contracts 9 - 1 has continued to narrow, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened again [102][108].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供应回升显著，矿价震荡调整 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端均迎来回升，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗再度回升，继续位于年内高位，需求 韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但钢厂利润在收缩，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货迎 来回升，且矿商发运大幅增加并升至年内高位，海外矿石供应回升，而内矿生产同样恢复，矿石供应 在增加。目前来看，铁矿石需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，而矿石供应迎来回升，且需求增量空间有 限，矿石基本面存走弱预期，叠加估值 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals have both decreased. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to mine maintenance, while Brazil's shipments rebounded. The daily average hot metal production increased slightly, mainly due to the improvement in the capacity utilization rate of previously restarted blast furnaces. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mills' imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side is in the traditional off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has begun to decline after raw material prices reached relatively high levels. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited. After the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the short - term iron ore price may experience a slight adjustment. Additionally, the news of the suspension of production of independent rolling enterprises in Tangshan from mid - month to the military parade has a certain but relatively insignificant impact on the raw material price. Attention should be paid to whether blast furnace enterprises will follow suit [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global total iron ore shipments were 30.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.303 million tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons. Australia's shipments were 16.625 million tons, a decrease of 1.177 million tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 14.478 million tons, a decrease of 996,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.678 million tons, an increase of 1.158 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in the country was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.143 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 103,500 tons [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spread: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 127 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.67%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 10.49 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.1927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. The pellet inventory was 324,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,130 tons. The iron concentrate inventory at ports was 1.09524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,180 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.68774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,970 tons. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 61.2753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,570 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 49.4084 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 68,770 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons, an increase of 1.2306 million tons from the previous week [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - The latest shipments from Australia to China via 19 ports were 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.228 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.474 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.047 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.841 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 874,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 270,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 2.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 253,000 tons. The arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.259 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.21%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from the previous period. The daily average production of iron concentrate in domestic mines was 47,790 tons, an increase of 2,020 tons from the previous period [50][53][56][59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3467 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 128,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9852 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 380 tons [70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of August 15, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 61.76 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.37% [78].

Report Overview - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply and demand currently show no significant contradictions. The current shipments and arrivals have both decreased compared to the previous period. Shipments continue to decline due to ongoing maintenance at some Australian mines, and arrivals from Australia and Brazil have decreased while non - mainstream arrivals have increased, keeping the overall supply at a relatively low level. [9] - The previous period's pig iron output was 240,320 tons, a decrease of 390 tons compared to the previous period. It is expected to have a slight rebound this period, remaining at a high - level fluctuation. The expectation of northern production restrictions in the middle and late period affecting demand has led to a continuous weakening of the 9 - 1 spread. After the main contract switch, the 01 basis has been significantly repaired, and it may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Fundamentals and Conclusions 3.1.1 Price and Inventory - Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated slightly. For example, Carajás fines decreased by 5, PB fines by 3, BRBF increased by 13, etc. As of August 8, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.5, a weekly increase of $2.2, equivalent to about 848.5 yuan after currency conversion. [6] - As of August 8, the optimal deliverable was NM fines, with a latest quote of about 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) was about 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore was at par with the spot, and the second - best deliverable was pb fines. [6] - The inventory of 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 142.6727 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 13.43 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 14.13 million tons lower than the same period last year. [6] 3.1.2 Supply - Shipments: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2.4277 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons compared to the previous period. Australian shipments were 1.5803 million tons, a decrease of 140,900 tons compared to the previous period, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.3656 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons compared to the previous period. Brazilian shipments were 847,400 tons, an increase of 104,700 tons compared to the previous period. [7] - Arrivals: From August 4 to August 10, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2.3819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons compared to the previous period; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1.203 million tons, a decrease of 50,100 tons compared to the previous period. [7] 3.1.3 Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills in the current period decreased. The average daily output was 240,320 tons/day, a decrease of 390 tons/day compared to the previous period. There were 4 new blast furnace restart operations and 3 blast furnace maintenance operations. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, the pig iron output may slightly rebound in the next period. [8] - As of August 8, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,114 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 196 yuan. The long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 236 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China (Fubao's calculation) was about 3,369 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,241 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of East China rebar was about - 129 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 1 yuan. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Data Sorting 3.2.1 Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of August 8, the optimal deliverable was NM fines with a warehouse receipt price of about 792 yuan/ton, and the second - best was PB fines with a warehouse receipt price of 801 yuan/ton. [14] - A table provided detailed information on the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties such as PB fines, Newman fines, and Mac fines. [14] 3.2.2 Iron Ore Inter - period - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 16.5 (- 9.5). [17] 3.2.3 Iron Ore Import Profit No specific data or analysis was provided in the report. 3.2.4 High - Low Grade Price Difference No specific data or analysis was provided in the report. 3.2.5 Premium Index - As of August 7, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.185 (+ 0.0025), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore was 16 (+ 0.6). [25] 3.2.6 Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory - The report presented inventory trends of various iron ore brands such as Mac fines, PB fines, and Jinbuba fines in 15 ports from 2021 to 2025, as well as the discount and premium trends of these brands over the years. [28] 3.2.7 Steel Mill Sintered Fines Inventory - As of August 8, the inventory of imported sintered fines decreased by 38,800 tons compared to August 1, a decrease of 2.96%. The inventory of domestic sintered fines increased by 2,100 tons, an increase of 2.35%. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1 day, a decrease of 4.76%. [31] 3.2.8 Port Inventory and Berthing - The report showed the historical trends of total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers at 47 ports, Australian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), Brazilian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), and trade ore inventory at ports (45 ports) from 2021 to 2025. [36] 3.2.9 Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of August 8, compared to August 1, the inventory of imported port lump ore decreased by 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1.59%; the inventory of pellet ore decreased by 43,000 tons, a decrease of 11.40%; the inventory of iron concentrate increased by 47,000 tons, an increase of 4.44%; and the inventory of coarse ore increased by 78,000 tons, an increase of 0.74%. [39] 3.2.10 Ore Removal The report presented the historical ore removal volume data from 2020 to 2025. [42] 3.2.11 Iron Ore In - Transit Volume The report showed the historical trends of iron ore in - transit volume from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China from 2022 to 2025. [45] 3.2.12 Iron Ore Import Volume The report presented the historical import volume data of iron ore in China, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, and other countries from 2020 to 2025. [48][49][50] 3.2.13 Australian Iron Ore Shipments - From August 8 to August 1, Australian shipments to China decreased by 123,000 tons, a decrease of 8.25%. Total Australian shipments decreased by 140,900 tons, a decrease of 8.19%. The proportion of shipments to China decreased by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.07%. [57] 3.2.14 Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments - From August 8 to August 1, Brazilian shipments to the world increased by 105,000 tons, an increase of 14.10%. [62] 3.2.15 Shipments of the Four Major Mines - From August 8 to August 1, Rio Tinto's shipments increased by 57,000 tons, an increase of 10.88%; BHP's shipments decreased by 87,000 tons, a decrease of 17.26%; Vale's shipments decreased by 27,000 tons, a decrease of 4.55%; FMG's shipments decreased by 25,000 tons, a decrease of 8.67%. The total shipments of the four major mines decreased by 82,000 tons, a decrease of 4.29%. [64] 3.2.16 Iron Ore Arrivals - From August 8 to August 1, the arrivals at 45 ports decreased by 126,000 tons, a decrease of 5.0%. The arrivals at northern ports decreased by 50,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. [71] 3.2.17 Freight Rates The report showed the historical trends of iron ore freight rates from Tubarão, Brazil, to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 to 2025. [73] 3.2.18 Domestic Ore Production The report presented the estimated domestic ore production data from 2017 to 2025. [75] 3.2.19 Steel Mill Fines Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of August 8, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared to August 1. The average daily pig iron output was 240,300 tons, a decrease of 390 tons compared to August 1. The daily consumption of imported sintered fines increased by 1,850 tons compared to August 1, an increase of 3.10%. The daily consumption of domestic sintered fines increased by 100 tons compared to August 1, an increase of 1.23%. [77] 3.2.20 Pig Iron Production The report presented the historical daily pig iron production data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 to 2025. [84] 3.2.21 Global Pig Iron Production The report showed the historical pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 to 2025. [87] 3.2.22 Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production The report presented the historical pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 to 2025 and the corresponding year - on - year and month - on - month changes. [92]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the "anti-involution" sentiment drove the overall sentiment of commodities. The supply and demand of iron ore were relatively good, and the price rose under the influence of sentiment. After the sentiment subsided, the price fluctuated. In August, the supply is expected to recover to some extent as July was the traditional off-season for overseas mines' shipments, and the near-term arrivals may increase. The daily average hot metal output is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the weakening demand of the downstream terminal needs attention. The port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Overall, the focus of the black sector remains on coking coal, and the iron ore fundamentals do not show obvious contradictions, with the price expected to fluctuate. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the production restriction expectations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region before the "September 3rd Parade" [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The weekly average of global iron ore shipments in July was 30.73 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5885 million tons. The weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The domestic daily average hot metal output in July was 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of July, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 126 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 104 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 146 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -11 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of July, the pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of July, the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.9029 million tons, a decrease of 0.9653 million tons. The iron concentrate inventory was 10.815 million tons, a decrease of 1.0125 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 16.825 million tons, an increase of 1.7881 million tons. The Australian ore inventory was 61.9325 million tons, an increase of 0.9517 million tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 47.786 million tons, a decrease of 1.442 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In July, the weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.788 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.771 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.4773 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9315 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.1115 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0575 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.5103 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9163 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports in July was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons. In June, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6103 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.51%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 480300 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The domestic hot metal output in July was 74.79 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month. At the end of July, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In July, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 3.0041 million tons, a decrease of 0.0038 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of July 31, the basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 50.07 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.04% [74].

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价高位运行 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续走弱，且降幅有所扩大，但钢厂盈 利状况表现良好，需求韧性尚存，给予矿价支撑。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货大幅回升，而海外矿 商发运则是再度减量，但高矿价下减量持续待跟踪，而内矿生产表现弱稳，矿石供应延续稳中有升态 势。总 ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 情绪极致演绎，注意短期调整 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/07/26 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 | 铁矿石基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 进口利润 | 周发运量 | 高低品价差 | 钢厂盈利率 | 铁水产量 | 47港库存 | | | | | 澳洲发运量1629.4 | PB-超特粉价差126元 | | | | | 数据 | 46.13元/吨 | -4.74元/湿吨 | 万吨，巴西发运量 | /吨 ;卡粉-PB粉价差 | 63.64% | 242.23万吨 | 14395.68万吨 | | | | | 922.6万吨 | 100元/吨 | | | | | 多 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【本周铁矿石价格震荡上行，短期反弹长期供需偏宽松】本周铁矿石价格震荡上行，截至周五收盘，铁 矿石期货主力合约收于785元/吨，较上周上涨21元/吨。Mysteel 62%澳粉远期价格指数为99.75美元/吨， 周环比涨1.25美元/吨；青岛港PB粉价格767元/吨，周环比涨15元/吨。 供应方面，Mysteel统计显示，本 期全球铁矿石发运2987万吨，周环比减少8万吨，澳洲和非主流发运环比回落，巴西发运环比回升。本 期45港铁矿石到港量2662.1万吨，周环比增加178.2万吨。 需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂，高炉开工 率83.46%，周环比增加0.31%，年同比增加0.83%；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.89%，周环比增加0.99%，年 同比增加1.27%；钢厂盈利率60.17%，周环比增加0.43%，年同比增加28.14%；日均铁水产量242.44万 吨，周环比增加2.63万吨，年同比增加2.79万吨。 库存方面，全国45港铁矿石库存总量13785.21万吨， 环比增加19.32万吨；45港日均疏港量322.74万吨，环比增加3.23 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Weak Demand Pressure in the Off - season, Steel Prices Rise and Then Fall - Weekly Report 20250707" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows enhanced expectations of warming policies, leading to a significant rebound in steel futures and spot prices. However, in the industrial aspect, the overall supply - demand structure continues to weaken during the high - temperature and rainy off - season. Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure as the previous macro - positive sentiment fades [3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: In the previous week, due to the improved macro - atmosphere and enhanced expectations of capacity control, commodity prices generally rebounded. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities increased, with rebar in Shanghai rising by 90 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai rising by 60 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures prices also showed significant increases, with the RB01 contract rising by 88 yuan/ton to 3093 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Rebar social inventory slightly increased, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons, while hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 3.77 tons to 344.93 tons [9] 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 221.08 tons (up 1.49% week - on - week, down 11.01% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 328.14 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week, up 0.57% year - on - year). Rebar production increased in both blast furnaces and electric furnaces, with blast furnace output at 195.24 tons (up 1.23% week - on - week, down 7.62% year - on - year) and electric furnace output at 25.84 tons (up 3.44% week - on - week, up 1.69% year - on - year). The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (down 0.43% week - on - week, up 0.42% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.87% (down 4.66% week - on - week, down 4.46% year - on - year) [15][17][22] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 224.87 tons (up 2.26% week - on - week, down 4.42% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 324.37 tons (down 0.58% week - on - week, up 2.10% year - on - year). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 10.68 tons (up 8.23% week - on - week, down 16.56% year - on - year) [36] - **Inventory**: Rebar slightly reduced inventory, with social inventory increasing and factory inventory decreasing. Rebar factory inventory was 180.47 tons (down 2.76% week - on - week, down 6.81% year - on - year), social inventory was 364.74 tons (up 0.37% week - on - week, down 35.63% year - on - year), and total inventory was 545.21 tons (down 0.69% week - on - week, down 30.69% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, with both factory and social inventory slightly rising. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78.32 tons (up 0.13% week - on - week, down 13.31% year - on - year), social inventory was 266.61 tons (up 1.40% week - on - week, down 19.58% year - on - year), and total inventory was 344.93 tons (up 1.11% week - on - week, down 18.14% year - on - year) [40][45] - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 39.03% week - on - week and 2.42% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.28% week - on - week and increased by 8.91% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [48][51] 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased to 2417.8 tons (down 13.25% week - on - week, down 4.15% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2483.9 tons (up 5.12% week - on - week, down 10.89% year - on - year). The iron ore price index was 95.44 (up 3.38% week - on - week, down 13.70% year - on - year) [59] - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 319.29 tons (down 2.04% week - on - week, up 1.87% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.65 days (up 0.95% week - on - week, down 5.63% year - on - year) [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.37% week - on - week to 13878.4 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 8918.57 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises were 22.44 days (up 0.22% week - on - week, up 3.55% year - on - year) [70] 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines increased to 83.82% (up 1.62% week - on - week, down 6.90% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal - washing plants was 59.72% (up 1.05% week - on - week, down 14.48% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 64% week - on - week to 12.56 tons (down 19.13% year - on - year) [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction成交 rate was 79.17% (down 7% week - on - week, down 19.51% year - on - year), and the weekly成交 rate was 86.7% (up 23.31% week - on - week, down 2.87% year - on - year). The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year) [78] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 5.57% week - on - week to 716.49 tons, the port inventory of coking coal increased by 6.54% week - on - week to 304.27 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.03% week - on - week to 789.43 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 16.45% week - on - week to 61.6 tons, the coke port inventory decreased by 4.48% week - on - week to 191.12 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 637.49 tons [91][97] - **Spot Price**: After four rounds of price cuts, coke prices temporarily stabilized. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1180 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 820 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103] 5. Spread Analysis - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of hot - rolled coil significantly contracted, and the spreads between the 10 - 1 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted [105] - **Others**: The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore contracted, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range [111]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 770.0 yuan/ton and a gain of 2.07% [1] - Supply is rebounding while iron and steel production is seasonally weakening, leading to increased inventory at ports, which raises the risk of overvaluation for iron ore [1] - The recent increase in iron ore prices is supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of continued high-level fluctuations in prices [1] Group 2 - Demand for iron ore remains resilient due to profit-driven raw material needs, despite a current decline in iron and steel production [2] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [2] - The short-term macro outlook is strong, with attention on the continued export of steel billets and the positive feedback effect on raw materials [2]