投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月25日08时15分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比上升 ，螺纹产量增加，整体库存继续回落，但热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期 ，库存的压力更大。由 于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格 也出现了走弱迹象，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，期价低位震荡，且震荡区间在收窄，在酝酿突破行情，需密切关注。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待回调后做多，中线交易。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3089 32 1.05% -8 -0.26% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3295 25 0.76% -7 -0.21% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3240 20 0.62% 20 0.62% 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） 元/吨 3290 20 0.61% -20 -0.6 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 供需格局未改善，矿价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，矿石终端消耗有所回升，但钢厂盈利状况不佳，且钢市产业矛盾未解， 增量空间有限。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货持续回落，而海外矿商发运则是大幅增加，按船期推算 后续到货也将回升，海外供应积极，叠加内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应居高不下。目前来看， ...

铁水转增，成本支撑带动钢价低位回升 ——周报20251117 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢高炉周产量200万吨（环比-4.10%，同比-14.51%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量313.66万吨（环比-1.41%，同比+1.67%）。螺纹钢和热卷均呈现减产。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费216.37万吨（环比-0.98%，同比-7.61%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 313.59万吨（环比-0.23%，同比-1.23%）。螺纹钢和热卷表需均呈现小幅下降。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存576.17万吨（环比-2.76%，同比+29.33%），热卷总库存 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 410.52万吨（环比+0.02%，同比+27 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月18日08时15分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷短线快速上涨，上方面临 60 日均线和布林带上轨的压 制，布林带开口收窄，期价有可能企稳，但中线下行趋势仍没有改变。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待回调后做多，中线交易。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3097 | 44 | 1.44% | 53 | 1.74% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 ...

上周澳巴发运小幅回升，到港环比下滑明显，近端供应明显收紧；需求方面，铁水产量止跌回升，但考 虑到利润水平，预计增产空间有限；库存来看，疏港量延续回升，港口库存受前期到货增加影响，仍在 累积，钢厂库存小幅增加，补库效果显现。综合来看，近期铁矿供需边际转好，上周五铁水产量与周四 五大材产量劈叉，需求超预期回升支撑矿价反弹，但考虑到淡季钢材的拖累影响，预计矿价仍有回调空 间。策略方面：激进投资者可关注轻仓做空思路。 机构 核心观点 正信期货 预计矿价仍有回调空间 中财期货 预计铁矿石价格预计震荡运行 东海期货 短期矿石预计以区间震荡思路对待 正信期货：预计矿价仍有回调空间 11月17日盘中，铁矿石期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至789.0元。截止发稿，铁矿石主力合约报 788.5元，涨幅1.81%。 中财期货：预计铁矿石价格预计震荡运行 铁矿石期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 基本面整体供强需弱。供应端，发运到港量均有所回落，但整体仍处于较高位置。预计下期铁矿石发运 将有所回升，按照船期推算，预计下期铁矿石继续下降，铁矿石供给端整体较为宽松。需求端，利润持 续收窄，铁水小幅回升，检修有所增加 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply - demand expectation of iron ore has marginally eased, and the valuation has declined from a high level [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore View - Supply: Overseas mines still have the driving force to boost shipments at the end of the year, and the market still expects more mainstream ore shipment increments in the future [5]. - Demand: The decline of hot metal production has accelerated recently, and the market's expectation of negative feedback from the industrial end has increased [5]. - Macro - level: Recently, the domestic policy has been relatively quiet, and the macro - risk preferences at home and abroad have diverged, which restricts the further upward breakthrough of the valuation of domestic risk assets to some extent [5]. - Logic summary: With the increasing inventory pressure of downstream finished products and the end of the demand peak season, the decline of blast furnace operation rate of downstream steel mills has accelerated. The market's concern about potential negative feedback has also increased. Coupled with the relatively loose supply increment, the inventory accumulation speed of domestic iron ore ports has also accelerated. Considering the demand pressure on raw materials and the relatively tight fundamentals of coking coal and coke, the iron ore valuation has dropped significantly to transfer profits to other varieties in the steel chain [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 760.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 559,000 lots, an increase of 19,100 lots. The average daily trading volume was 331,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,700 lots [7]. 3.3 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices also dropped significantly. For example, the price of Caffey (64.5%) decreased from 913 yuan/ton last week to 878 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore Supply - Side 3.4.1 Mainstream Ore - Overseas shipments decreased month - on - month but were still at a high level year - on - year. Vale showed a trend of increasing shipments recently [15][17]. 3.4.2 Non - mainstream Ore - Canada's recent shipments increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [19]. 3.4.3 Domestic Mines - The operating rate in the southwest region fluctuated again [28]. 3.5 Iron Ore Demand - Side 3.5.1 Downstream - The decline of hot metal production accelerated recently, and the production of five major steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [31]. 3.5.2 Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel - As the iron ore price drove the overall decline of raw material costs, the scrap - hot metal price difference rebounded after reaching a phased bottom [34]. 3.6 Iron Ore Inventory - Side - The inventory accumulation at domestic ports accelerated [38][39]. 3.7 Downstream Profit - The disk profit of steel products rebounded after reaching a bottom [41]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The price of PB powder has been relatively strong recently, and the price differences such as Caffey - PB, PB - Super Special, and PB lump - powder have shown a certain regression trend [43]. 3.9 Disk Monthly Spread - The decline of near - month contracts was relatively large, and the monthly spreads of 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 narrowed slightly [45]. 3.10 Basis Performance - The futures price corrected significantly this week, and the basis increased month - on - month [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Looking ahead to November, on the supply side, overseas shipments in October continued to be strong, with a significant increase in arrivals. Shipments are expected to decline month-on-month in November. On the demand side, since late October, affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and a sharp decline in steel mill profits, the daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.4 million tons. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the terminal data is weak. It is expected that the pig iron output in November will continue to decline compared to October, and the supply and demand of iron ore are expected to weaken. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of port inventory has intensified, and inventory pressure is still expected in November. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session was held in late October, and progress was made in the China-US economic and trade consultations at the end of the month, with a meeting between the two heads of state, giving certain positive signals. During this period, the iron ore price rebounded periodically. After the macro enters a short-term vacuum period, it is expected that the futures market logic will return to the industrial reality, and the iron ore price will face downward pressure [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In October, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8444 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,700 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic pig iron output in October was 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: At the end of October, the price difference between PB and Super Special powder was 93 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 22 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and PB powder was 110 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and Jinbuba powder was 169 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 and PB powder was 8.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of October, the pelletizing feed ratio was 14.92%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.3%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, with no change from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of October, the profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 2.8692 million tons, an increase of 82,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 11.5383 million tons, an increase of 707,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory was 18.623 million tons, an increase of 1.4017 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Australian ore port inventory was 60.174 million tons, a change of 1.0121 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 57.4387 million tons, an increase of 3.8935 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 88.4986 million tons, a decrease of 8.8653 million tons from the end of the previous month [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In October, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 6.8054 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58,400 tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.6104 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,600 tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.2686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 870,100 tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8316 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 306,900 tons [50][53][56]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In October, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons. In September, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 18.5836 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6846 million tons [59]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of October, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 476,400 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the end of the previous month [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization**: The estimated domestic pig iron output in October was 74.3668 million tons, with a daily average of 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month. At the end of October, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the end of the previous month [67]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In October, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [70]. 3.6 Basis As of October 31, the estimated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 67.35 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 7.83% [75].

Group 1: Report Summary - The current global iron ore shipment volume decreased month-on-month, with both Australian and Brazilian ores showing a slight decline. Meanwhile, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the domestic iron ore production fluctuated slightly. Overall, the supply is relatively loose. On the demand side, affected by environmental protection and profit decline, the molten iron production decreased significantly. As the terminal demand gradually weakens, the future demand will continue to decline. In general, the current iron ore supply and demand are gradually weakening, and the peak season is coming to an end. Coupled with the implementation of macro policies, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of terminal demand. The strategy is to expect range-bound fluctuations [4][5]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price rebounded with fluctuations [6]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded from a low level, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder also rebounded from a low level [12][16]. - The 1-5 spread rebounded slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract fluctuated at a low level [20]. - The screw-ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore-coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [27]. Group 3: Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly, and the shipment volume of non-mainstream ores fluctuated slightly [33]. - The shipment volume of Australian ore to China and Brazilian ore both decreased slightly [37]. - The shipment volume of FMG to China decreased, while that of BHP increased slightly [42]. - The shipment volume of RT and VALE both increased slightly [46]. - The shipping freight index fluctuated slightly [50]. - The arrival volume increased significantly [54]. - The production of domestic iron ore concentrate changed little [57]. Group 4: Demand - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces continued to weaken [63]. - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the molten iron production decreased significantly [69]. Group 5: Inventory - The port clearance volume increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [78]. - The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore fluctuated at a high level [82]. - The inventory of coarse powder fluctuated at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore decreased slightly [88]. - The consumption of steel mills decreased from a high level, and the inventory of imported ore decreased from a low level [96].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply and Demand Slightly Weaken, Futures Market Ranges" - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20251027 [2] - Analyst: Zhou Guisheng [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The current iron ore supply and demand situation is slightly weak, and it will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term. The report suggests a range - bound trading strategy and advises to pay attention to changes in macro sentiment [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Trading Logic - **Supply**: From October 20th - 26th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3388.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.8 million tons. Australian shipments were 1984.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million tons, while Brazilian shipments were 941.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2029.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 490.2 million tons. As of October 24th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 47.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07%. Mine concentrate inventory was 91.62 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72 million tons [5] - **Demand**: In the week of October 24th, the daily average pig iron output was 239.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 million tons. The profitability rate dropped significantly this period, and pig iron output continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. There was some rigid demand for restocking support, but the steel mills' profitability continued to shrink, and market expectations weakened [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of imported ore increased this period, and the number of ships at the port decreased by 17 to 107. The congestion situation decreased significantly, and the inventory transferred to the port, increasing the port inventory pressure. Steel mills' inventory remained at a low level [5] - **Basis**: The basis of contracts 01 and 05 fluctuated slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills declined, and the price of imported ore fluctuated in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [5] 3.2 Price and Spread - **Price**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [7] - **Ore Powder Spread**: The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, were both in low - level oscillations [13][17] - **Contract Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread did not fluctuate much, and the basis of contract 01 oscillated at a low level [21] - **Relative Valuation**: The rebar - ore ratio oscillated at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio oscillated downward [28] 3.3 Supply Details - Global shipments increased slightly, and non - mainstream ore shipments also increased slightly [34] - Australian ore shipments to China decreased slightly, while Brazilian ore shipments continued to increase [38] - FMG shipments to China decreased, while BHP shipments increased slightly [42] - RT and VALE shipments both increased slightly [46] - The freight rate index fluctuated slightly [50] - The arrival volume continued to decline [54] - The output of domestic iron concentrate changed little [57] 3.4 Demand Details - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces rebounded at a low level [63] - The profitability rate of steel mills decreased, and pig iron output decreased [69] 3.5 Inventory Details - The port's ore handling volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to increase [78] - The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore continued to increase [82] - The coarse powder inventory oscillated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory continued to increase [89] - Steel mills' consumption decreased slowly at a high level, and the inventory of imported ore remained at a low level [97]