Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The expected supply - demand contradiction of lead supports its price. The lead - zinc industry is expected to achieve a mild recovery as the lead - zinc industry monthly prosperity index in June continued to operate in the "normal" range [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,960 yuan/ton, up 0.83%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,011.5 dollars/ton, up 1.72%. The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 44,659 lots, an increase of 12,371 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 9,912 lots, an increase of 1,265 lots [1] - **Position and Premium**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 44,870 lots, a decrease of 5,711 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,203 lots, an increase of 105 lots. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 23.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory and Profit**: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 60,059 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,925 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 725.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 134.8 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was - 543.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.62 yuan/ton [1] News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the Fed's policy needs to be re - examined, and trade negotiations will prioritize quality rather than rush for a deadline [1] - The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, and the EU is considering a "nuclear option" for countermeasures. The US has proposed stricter trade conditions, including raising tariffs to 15% or higher, maintaining the current 25% auto tariff, and possibly imposing a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals [1] - The monitoring model results of the monthly prosperity index of China's lead - zinc industry showed that the lead - zinc industry prosperity index in June continued to operate in the "normal" range, and the industry is expected to achieve a mild recovery [1] Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [1]

Core Insights - The monthly prosperity index for China's lead-zinc industry in May is reported at 35.4, an increase of 4.4 points from April, indicating a stabilization and recovery trend within the "normal" range [1][3] - The leading index reached 76.7, up 3.3 points from April, marking a new high for 2024, suggesting a stable development foundation for the lead-zinc industry [1][7] Industry Performance Indicators - The lead-zinc market price index decreased by 8.8 points in May compared to April, influenced by international market speculation and slow consumer recovery, although terminal replenishment demand is gradually starting [8] - The M2 money supply index increased to 55.2, up 2.7 points from April, indicating stable growth without significant fluctuations, supporting the lead-zinc industry's development [8] - The production index for lead-acid batteries rose significantly by 23.6 points in May, driven by increased demand in electric vehicles and backup power sectors as the traditional consumption peak season approaches [8] - The galvanized sheet production index remained stable, reflecting consistent demand from downstream industries, with infrastructure projects boosting zinc usage despite the sluggish real estate sector [8] - The lead-zinc ore import index rose to 139.1, up 28.6 points year-on-year, as domestic smelters increased overseas procurement to address raw material shortages [8] - Fixed asset investment index increased by 12.3 points in May, ending a two-month decline, as companies ramped up investments in environmental management and smart upgrades [9] - The production index slightly declined by 18.1 points, attributed to seasonal maintenance in some lead-zinc mines, but smelting remained stable, meeting domestic consumption needs [9] - The main business revenue index increased by 16.7 points, indicating significant improvement in the overall revenue situation of the lead-zinc industry, while the profit total index rose by 1.4 points, reflecting effective cost control and product structure optimization [9] Future Outlook - With ongoing national economic growth policies, the lead-zinc industry prosperity index is expected to continue operating within the "normal" range in Q2 2025, indicating a potential mild recovery [10]