研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 目 录 第一部分：核心观点 据ILZSG,2025年7月全球锌精矿产量为107.62万吨，同比增加10.28%。 2025年锌矿国际长协TC价确定为80美元/吨，创历史最低，同比上一年腰斩，海外高成本炼厂可能会面临运营压力。尽管如 此，但应注意2024年的长单tc是被严重高估的，从现货tc的变化来看，锌矿供给边际宽松的趋势没有改变。 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 核心观点 宏观：10月9日讯，美联储一些高级官员上月更倾向于维持利率不变，这凸显了决策者们的担忧：高企的通胀仍对美国经济构成威胁。尽管 美联储9月降息25个基点，但美联储会议纪要显示，"少数"FOMC成员本来会支持维持利率不变，因为通胀有可能持续高于目标。会议纪要 指出，今年通胀率的上升使得实现2%目标的进展"陷入停滞"，并补充称，少数成员"担心如果通胀不能及时回到目标水平，长期通胀预期 可能会上升"。 基本面：在伦锌带动下，沪锌近期小幅上涨，宏观情绪乐观及海外持续去库是主要驱动。短期基本面层面，国产矿冶炼利润优于 ...

指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货21880，基差+80；中性。 9月30日国内主要现货市场行情 3、库存：10月8日LME锌库存较上日增加50吨至38250吨，9月30日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少2043吨至57221吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下 ...

Global Steel Production Overview - In 2024, global crude steel production is projected to reach 1.839 billion tons, a slight decrease of 0.9% compared to the previous year, with varying performances among countries [2] - China remains the largest producer with a steel output of 1.005 billion tons, despite a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, accounting for nearly half of the global total [27][39] - The United States' steel production is expected to be 79.5 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year, reflecting a significant decline from its historical dominance [5][39] - India is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected steel output of 149.6 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [13][39] United States Steel Industry Challenges - The U.S. steel industry has faced structural issues leading to a significant decline in production, with historical output once accounting for two-thirds of global production [5][11] - The reliance on electric arc furnaces, which constitute over 60% of production, has made the industry vulnerable to fluctuations in scrap steel prices and limited domestic iron ore supply [8][9] - Despite protective tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, the industry has not recovered sufficiently, resulting in job losses exceeding 140,000 [8][20] India's Steel Industry Growth - India's steel production has been on a robust upward trajectory, supported by government initiatives such as the National Steel Policy aimed at increasing production capacity to 300 million tons by 2030 [15][18] - However, India faces challenges in high-end steel production, heavily relying on imports for specialized products, which limits its growth potential [17][22] - The government is investing in infrastructure to boost steel demand, but domestic production capabilities in high-end segments remain inadequate [20][24] China's Steel Industry Transformation - China's steel industry is undergoing a transformation, shifting focus from quantity to quality, with manufacturing now accounting for 50% of steel usage [27][29] - The industry is optimizing product structures, increasing the production of high-end steel products, and enhancing research and development efforts [29][31] - Despite facing challenges from global trade protectionism, China is actively seeking new markets and enhancing international cooperation to maintain its competitive edge [32][34] Future Trends in the Global Steel Industry - The global steel industry is expected to prioritize quality over quantity, with low-carbon, high-end, and intelligent production becoming key trends [37] - China is positioned to lead in green steel and material solutions, while India has the potential for growth if it can overcome technological and managerial challenges [37] - Open cooperation and healthy competition among countries are essential for the sustainable development of the steel industry, emphasizing the importance of collaboration in low-carbon technologies [37]

指标体系 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21670，基差-130；偏空。 3、库存：9月29日LME锌库存较上日减少825吨至41950吨，9月29日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加1691吨至59264吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,2 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年9月28日 | 数据 | | --- | Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供应端压力不减，去库拐点有待进一步确认 强弱分析：中性偏弱 本周锌锭出现去库 镀锌开工小幅回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端压力不减。当下进口锌精矿亏损不断扩大，对国产矿采购需求进一步提升， 国产矿TC承压；本周河南、广西地区企业恢复生产，10月江西、河南两家冶炼厂月中 存检修计划，但从最新排产数据来看，预计10月国内锌锭供应或继续增加，供应端压 力不减。 ◆ 消费端小幅改善，但相对有限。临近国庆假期，下游存在节前备库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货21910，基差+135；偏空。 3、库存：9月25日LME锌库存较上日减少600吨至43800吨，9月25日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少774吨至56583吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线之下,20 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].

沪锌期货早报-2025年9月25日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21860，基差+0；中性。 3、库存：9月24日LME锌库存较上日减少1375吨至44400吨，9月24日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加744吨至57357吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc fluctuating and falling, closing with a negative line and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with more short - position increases. The market may fluctuate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing its support. Short - term indicators suggest a weak trend, and the bearish force is dominant. The recommendation is that Shanghai zinc ZN2511 will fluctuate and weaken [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The spot price of zinc was 21,920, with a basis of +75, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On September 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,559 tons to 56,613 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc fluctuated and fell, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The main net position was long, and long positions increased, showing a bullish sign [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on September 23 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2510 had a settlement price of 21,995, opening at 22,095, and closing at 21,840, with a decline of 155. The trading volume of all contracts totaled 203,496 lots, and the trading value was 2.23400645 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market on September 23 - The prices of various zinc - related products decreased. Zinc concentrate in Lin had a price of 16,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; zinc ingots in Shanghai were 21,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; galvanized sheets in China were 4,042 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; galvanized pipes in China were 4,444 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,150 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin remained unchanged at 7,875 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (September 11 - 22, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets on September 22 was 1.446 million tons. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 50,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 37,000 tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on September 23 - The total zinc warrants in the futures exchange on September 23 were 56,613 tons, an increase of 1,559 tons. In Guangdong, warrants increased by 496 tons, and in Tianjin, they increased by 1,063 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on September 23 - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons. In Singapore, inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,625 tons [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on September 23 - Zinc concentrate prices in major cities decreased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, the price was 16,680 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it was also 16,680 yuan/ton [8]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on September 23 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters decreased by 70 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,150 yuan/ton; from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,480 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned refined zinc production was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on September 23 - The processing fees for 50% zinc concentrate in different regions varied. For example, in Hohhot, the average processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton; in Huizhou, it was 4,000 yuan/metal ton. The average import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 23 - In the trading volume ranking of zinc contracts zn2511, CITIC Futures had the highest trading volume of 40,422 lots, a decrease of 4,691 lots compared with the previous trading day. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 10,220 lots, an increase of 1,842 lots. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 18,617 lots, an increase of 356 lots [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21990，基差-100；中性。 3、库存：9月22日LME锌库存较上日减少1000吨至46825吨，9月22日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加2523吨至55054吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡反弹走势，收20日均线之下, ...