锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：关注价格上方压力 强弱分析：中性 国内库存继续去化 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 镀锌开工回升 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端逐渐复产。当下国产矿加工费集中在1200-1600/金属吨，下方调整空间 相对有限。同时进口窗口已经打开，近期Antamina锌精矿有20美元附近成交，普通 锌精矿报盘40-50美元/干吨，进口矿加工费仍有进一步下滑可能；临近年底，前期检 修的冶炼厂将陆续复产，预计1月锌锭供应量环比将出现增长； ◆ 需求季节性回落。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金订单持续低迷， ...

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23255 | 85 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -30 | 15 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3086.5 | -10 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 197429 | -2988 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1795 | 2441 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 72963 | -3054 LME库存(日,吨) | 106875 | 7900 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23440 | 240 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23490 | 260 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 185 | 155 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -28.26 | 0.88 | | | 昆明 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：短期价格纠结盘整 强弱分析：中性 国内库存继续去化 镀锌开工回升 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端逐渐复产。当下国产矿加工费集中在1200-1600/金属吨，下方调整空间 相对有限。同时进口窗口已经打开，近期Antamina锌精矿有20美元附近成交，普通 锌精矿报盘40-50美元/干吨，进口矿加工费仍有进一步下滑可能；临近年底，前期检 修的冶炼厂将陆续复产，预计1月锌锭供应量环比将出现增长； ◆ 需求季节性回落。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金订单持续低迷， ...

滨州日报/滨州网讯 "十四五"时期，博兴县锚定高质量发展航向，自觉扛牢"走在前、挑大梁"的使命担 当，统筹推动稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险等各项工作，综合实力稳步提升、产业结构持 续优化、民生福祉不断增进、开放活力充分迸发，"强富优美"现代化博兴建设蹄疾步稳。 产业体系提质增效，多元驱动强根基 服务业实现质效齐升。2024年，博兴县规上服务业经济总量达51.1亿元，较2020年增长18.3个百分点， 年均增长8.1％，信息传输、教育等新兴服务门类不断完善，产业结构持续优化。 经济总量稳步攀升，发展质效双提升 "十四五"期间，博兴县经济运行保持稳中有进、稳中提质的良好态势。全县地区生产总值从2020年的 379.77亿元增至2024年的510.74亿元，按不变价格计算，年均增长6.1％；2025年前三季度达380.06亿 元，同比增长6.0％，增长韧性持续显现。人均地区生产总值同步提升，从2020年的74810元增至2024年 的101027元，按不变价格计算，年均增长6.2％，快于同期经济增速0.1个百分点，发展质量和效率显著 提高。 财政金融支撑持续增强。博兴县一般公共预算收入从2020年的31. ...

国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：23000一线相对均衡，等待新驱动 强弱分析：中性 锌产业链周度报告 | 数据 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 上周收盘价 | | 周涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 沪锌主力 | 23065 | | -2.29% | 23070 | 0.02% | | | | | | LmeS-锌3 | 3078 | | -1.94% | - | - | | | | | | 【期货成交及持仓变动】 ...

| 投资者关系活动 | 特定对象调研 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 路演活动 | | | 现场参观 其他 | | 参与单位名称及 | 鞍钢股份：高红宇 | | 人员姓名 | 鞍钢资本控股：张雷 | | | 嘉实基金：唐棠 | | 时间 | 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | | 地点 | 鞍山 | | 形式 | 实地调研 | | | 1、公司下一步发展规划 | | | 答：公司未来会坚持高端化、智能化、绿色化的发展方向，聚焦 | | | 国家发展战略，紧跟市场实际需求，大力打造高科技含量、高附 | | | 加值、高性能指标的高端产品。将新一代信息技术与生产经营深 | | | 度融合，加快形成面向生产全流程、管理全方位、产品全生命周 | | | 期的智能制造新模式。坚持生态优先、绿色发展，在源头减碳、 | | | 过程降碳、节能减排、资源循环等方面发力攻坚，推进绿色制造， | | 交流内容及具体 | 实现经济效益与环境效益协同发展。 | | 问答记录 | 2、公司产品竞争力情况 | | | 答：公司拥有热轧卷板、中厚板、冷轧板、镀锌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel's January 2026 futures guidance price has increased by 100 yuan per ton, signaling a positive outlook for the steel market recovery [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The short-term galvanized market is facing challenges such as weakened demand and low stocking enthusiasm [1] - The policy stance has shifted to "proactive and effective," with both fiscal and monetary easing measures in place to stabilize growth [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is high, but adverse weather conditions may further weaken demand [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - Raw material production cuts may support price stability [1] - The short-term galvanized market is in a bottoming phase, with potential for a rebound due to positive signals [1]

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：突破23000后上行动力不足，关注供应端扰动 强弱分析：中性偏强 国内库存继续去化 第 2 页 镀锌开工回升 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端减量。当下进口锌精矿亏损仍然较大，叠加年底北方矿山停产，后续国产 矿供应形势偏紧，国产矿TC预计进一步下调。原料库存有限下，已经有炼厂规划减产 来缓解压力，其中减量贡献较大为云南、广西、广东、内蒙古、陕西、湖南等省份， 供应环比减量或在3-4万吨。 ◆ 消费端延续淡季。需求呈现季节性回落，下游开工率有所下滑，叠加锌价高位震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the zinc industry [2] Report's Core Viewpoint - Zinc supply is decreasing while consumption remains stable, and there is still support below the price [2] - Domestic inventory is continuing to decline, and the operating rate of galvanizing has dropped [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,425, with a weekly increase of 0.13%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,470, with a night - session increase of 0.20%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,051, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [6] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison Inventory - Zinc ore, smelter finished products have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [9] Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [11] Operating Rate - The smelting operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is at a historically low - to - medium level [13] 3. Trading Aspect Spot - The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the Singapore premium remaining stable and LME CASH - 3M strengthening significantly [17][18] Spread - SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far - end [20] Inventory - This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the position - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventory, a large decrease in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [24][30][32] Futures - The domestic long - position volume is at a historical median level for the same period [33] 4. Supply Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has increased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has been significantly reduced. The arrival volume of ore at the port is at a high level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has decreased [36][37] Refined Zinc - Smelting output has declined and is at a historically high level for the same period. The smelter's finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historically high level for the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [44] 5. Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly downstream operating rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level for the same period. The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [49][52][68] 6. Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France are presented in the report, along with the profit and loss of zinc smelters in these countries [70][71][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures first declined and then rebounded. The Fed is divided on a December rate cut, increasing the market's risk aversion. Fundamentals are relatively balanced, with reduced concerns about LME squeezes. Domestic smelters are planning more production cuts due to falling processing fees, but new projects in Xinjiang are ramping up. Demand is in the off - season, with slow destocking in China. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely at low levels, and in the long - term, zinc ingot surpluses may increase, keeping prices under pressure [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From November 14th to 21st, SHFE zinc decreased from 22,425 yuan/ton to 22,395 yuan/ton, a drop of 30 yuan/ton; LME zinc decreased from 3014.5 dollars/ton to 2992 dollars/ton, a drop of 22.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 7.44 to 7.48. SHFE inventory decreased by 545 tons to 100347 tons, LME inventory increased by 8350 tons to 47,325 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.52 million tons to 15.27 million tons. The spot premium increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc switched to ZN2601, with prices first falling and then rebounding. As the Fed's December rate - cut expectation declined, the US dollar held above 100, pressuring risk assets. With the slow increase in LME inventory, concerns about squeezes eased. After the price decline, downstream point - pricing increased, and the price found support near the 40 - day moving average and rebounded weakly, closing at 22390 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.16%. LME zinc stabilized after a high - level decline, with the 60 - day moving average providing support, closing at 2992 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.75% [5]. - In the spot market, at the beginning of the week, the market supply was tight, and traders raised prices, with the spot premium rising. As pre - sold goods and factory shipments arrived, the market supply increased, and the spot premium declined. As of November 21st, LME zinc inventory was 47,325 tons, a weekly increase of 8350 tons; SHFE inventory was 100347 tons, a decrease of 545 tons from the previous week. As of November 20th, social inventory was 15.27 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from Monday and 0.52 million tons from last Thursday. Shanghai's inventory increased slightly due to some smelters resuming production, while Guangdong and Tianjin's inventories decreased due to downstream restocking after the price decline [6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of November 21st, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 250 yuan/metal ton to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 10.45 dollars/dry ton to 73.05 dollars/dry ton [11]. - In October, zinc ore imports were 34.09 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. Refined zinc imports were 1.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. Refined zinc exports were 8519 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6041 tons. Galvanized sheet exports were 129.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.97%. Die - cast zinc alloy exports were 268.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.67% [11]. - As of the end of October, the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine's mining and beneficiation project had completed an investment of 555 million yuan in 2025, with smooth infrastructure progress. The beneficiation plant is expected to complete a trial run by the end of December, and the tailings pond will start trial operation. The underground equipment is expected to start a trial run in June 2026 [11]. - Xinjiang Baochen Supply Chain Co., Ltd. is selling zinc ingots on behalf of Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. through online reverse bidding, including 3000 tons of 1 zinc ingots and 7000 tons of 0 zinc ingots [12].