华创证券指出，尽管美联储"鹰派"降息导致铝价短暂走弱，但全球铝库存仍维持120-125万吨的低位， 安全库存处于较低水平。海外项目因电力问题减产及印尼增量释放缓慢，未来2-3年全球铝供需或维持 紧平衡，库存可能持续低位，对铝价形成支撑。从金融属性看，铜铝比创年内新高，历史铜铝比多在 3.3-3.7之间，意味着铝仍有补涨空间。若美国因缺电导致减产，铝价上涨弹性可能更强。电解铝行业平 均利润约5500元/吨，伴随氧化铝价格下行，行业利润有望维持高位。电解铝企业现金流持续修复，盈 利稳定性提升，且未来资本开支强度较低，红利资产属性逐步凸显。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及有色金属开采、冶炼 及加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。指数 成分股具有显著的周期性特征，其表现易受全球经济形势、供需关系变化以及金属价格波动的影响。行 业配置主要覆盖铜、铝、铅锌及稀有金属等子领域，集中体现了资源类股票的市场特性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metals sector has performed exceptionally well this year, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 75.82%, ranking among the top in the Shenwan first-level industry growth list [1] - Subcategories such as copper, gold, and lead-zinc have seen significant increases, with industrial metals being the main driving force behind the sector's growth [1] - Analysts believe that under the backdrop of global macro liquidity easing, non-ferrous metals exhibit strong medium to long-term investment value due to their rigid supply and demand, safe-haven attributes, and the demand for green transformation [1] Group 2 - There is a particular focus on copper, aluminum, and gold as the "three safe-haven swords," with a recommendation to prioritize investments in leading companies that possess core mining rights [1] - Attention is also directed towards companies with deep processing capabilities within the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 75.82%, driven primarily by industrial metals like copper, gold, and lead-zinc [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index has increased by 75.82% year-to-date, ranking it among the top sectors in the Shenwan industry index [2]. - Within the sector, industrial metals have led the gains, with the Shenwan Copper Index up by 100.57%, Shenwan Gold Index up by 79.17%, Shenwan Lead-Zinc Index up by 75.06%, and Shenwan Aluminum Index up by 51.75% [2]. - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points on December 11, related ETFs have seen significant net inflows, with the Southern Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF receiving a net inflow of 468 million yuan in the week leading up to December 15 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by loose liquidity and geopolitical tensions, has positively impacted non-ferrous metal prices [3]. - Industrial metal inventories are at historical lows, with global refined copper stocks at 1,451 thousand tons as of November 30, the lowest in nearly 35 years [3]. - The aluminum production capacity utilization is nearing its maximum, with mainstream electrolytic aluminum inventories at 584 thousand tons, also at historically low levels [3]. Group 3: Future Demand Trends - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to grow significantly due to the green transition, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and AI infrastructure [4]. - By the third quarter of 2025, copper demand from electric vehicles and charging stations is projected to increase, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in apparent copper consumption in China [4]. - The trend of "using aluminum instead of copper" is accelerating, with ongoing demand in air conditioning heat exchangers and battery trays for electric vehicles [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite a recent decline of 2.63% in the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for the sector under the premise of macroeconomic easing [5]. - The focus is on the "three safe-haven metals": copper, aluminum, and gold, with copper expected to face supply-demand tightness by 2026 due to reduced production forecasts from leading copper mining companies [6]. - Investment strategies suggest prioritizing leading companies with core mining rights and those with deep processing capabilities, emphasizing the dual themes of supply rigidity and green premium [6].

● 本报记者 葛瑶 今年以来，有色金属板块表现亮眼，中证申万有色金属指数累计上涨75.82%，位居申万一级行业涨幅 榜前列。其中，铜、黄金、铅锌等细分品种涨幅居前，工业金属成为板块上涨主要驱动力。 机构人士认为，在全球宏观流动性宽松的背景下，有色金属凭借供需刚性、避险属性及绿色转型需求， 中长期配置价值凸显，尤其看好铜、铝、黄金"避险三剑客"，优先布局拥有核心矿权的龙头企业，重点 关注具备深加工能力的标的。 有色金属板块领跑A股 Wind数据显示，截至12月16日，中证申万有色金属指数今年以来累计上涨75.82%，位居申万一级行业 涨幅榜前列。 细分来看，有色金属板块内部呈现结构性行情，工业金属品种领涨，成为板块上涨的主要驱动力。申万 铜指数今年以来累计涨幅达100.57%，位居板块内首位；申万黄金指数累计涨幅为79.17%；申万铅锌指 数累计涨幅为75.06%；申万铝指数累计涨幅为51.75%。 资金面上，市场情绪持续高涨。12月11日美联储如期降息25个基点后，有色金属相关ETF连续多日迎来 资金净流入。截至12月15日，南方中证申万有色金属ETF近一周获净流入4.68亿元，万家中证工业有色 金属主题ET ...

Emerging Fields - The release of five national standards related to cybersecurity aims to strengthen national cybersecurity defenses and promote healthy development of the digital economy [1] - Seven national standards in information technology will ensure interoperability and security of information systems through unified technical application specifications [1] - Three national standards for artificial intelligence social experiments support the healthy and orderly development of intelligent societies [1] - Seven national standards for nanotechnology will assist in unifying relevant technical characterization and testing specifications [1] Transportation and Environmental Protection - A total of 44 national standards covering automotive steering systems, vehicle brake fluids, railway construction machinery, rail transit vehicles, shore power for ships, containers, and aerospace components will aid in building a strong transportation nation [1] - Ten energy-saving and environmental protection standards related to industrial boiler economic operation, meat processing, food processing, alcoholic beverages, and lead-zinc will contribute to pollution prevention efforts [1] Safety Production - National standards for assessing combustible dust explosion risks and guidelines for gas protection station construction in chemical parks will enhance safety management in hazardous chemical production [2] - Five emergency management national standards, including guidelines for emergency drills and scenario construction methods, will improve emergency response capabilities [2] - Eleven mandatory national standards for fire trucks will ensure technological advancement in fire truck products and enhance the operational capabilities of firefighting teams [2] Public Services - Three national standards for educational service management and seven guidelines for standardized education course construction in logistics, elderly care, automation, and the Internet of Things will lay the foundation for cultivating versatile talents and promoting education integration [2] - Guidelines for the usability of home health care products and services will support the development of an age-friendly society [2] - Four national standards related to digital asset management, including digital maturity and cultural digital asset valuation, will enhance the digitalization level of asset management and improve transparency and security in digital asset transactions [2] Daily Life - National standards for smart textiles will guide the standardized development of smart textile products [3] - The introduction of national standards for biodegradable plastic shopping bags will promote resource recycling [3] - Two national standards for testing methods related to formaldehyde content in leather and short-chain chlorinated paraffins will improve detection of harmful substance limits [3] - Eight national standards for surgical implants and sterilization of medical products will enhance the quality and safety of medical devices [3] - Additional national standards were released for rice, navel oranges, rural toilets, and oil drilling equipment [3]

Group 1: Emerging Fields - The release of 5 national standards related to cybersecurity technology aims to strengthen national cybersecurity defenses and promote healthy development of the digital economy [1] - 7 national standards in information technology will ensure interoperability and security of information systems through unified technical application specifications [1] - 3 national standards for artificial intelligence social experiments support the healthy and orderly development of intelligent society [1] - 7 national standards for nanotechnology will assist in unifying relevant technical characterization and testing specifications [1] Group 2: Transportation and Environmental Protection - 44 national standards covering automotive steering systems, vehicle brake fluids, railway construction machinery, rail transit vehicles, shore power for ships, containers, and aerospace components contribute to the construction of a strong transportation nation [2] - 10 energy-saving and environmental protection standards in industrial boilers, meat processing, food processing, alcoholic beverages, and lead-zinc industries support the fight against pollution [2] Group 3: Safety Production - National standards for assessing combustible dust explosion risks and guidelines for gas protection station construction in chemical parks aim to enhance safety levels in chemical production [2] - 5 emergency management national standards, including guidelines for emergency drills and scenario construction methods, are designed to improve emergency response capabilities [2] - 11 mandatory national standards for fire trucks ensure technological advancement in fire truck products and enhance the operational capabilities of fire rescue teams [2] Group 4: Public Services - 3 national standards for educational organization management certification requirements and 7 guidelines for standardized education course construction in logistics, elderly care, automation, and IoT lay the foundation for cultivating versatile talents and promoting education integration [2] - Guidelines for the usability of home health care products and services support the construction of an age-friendly society [2] - 4 national standards related to asset management digital maturity and cultural digital asset valuation aim to improve the digital level of asset management and enhance transparency and security in digital asset transactions [2] Group 5: Daily Life - National standards for smart textiles guide the standardized development of smart textile products [3] - The introduction of national standards for biodegradable plastic shopping bags promotes resource recycling [3] - National standards for testing methods related to formaldehyde content in leather and fur, as well as short-chain chlorinated paraffins, enhance detection capabilities for harmful substances [3] - 8 national standards for surgical implants and sterilization of medical products aim to improve the quality and safety of medical devices [3] - Additional national standards were released for rice, navel oranges, rural toilets, and oil drilling equipment [3]

Core Insights - The mining ETF (561330) has increased by over 1% as of November 19, indicating a positive trend in the mining sector [1] - Citic Securities highlights that ore prices are steadily rising, and capital expenditure in mining continues to increase, suggesting a stable growth in mining demand in the future [1] Industry Summary - Current prices for major minerals such as copper and aluminum are stable or rising, while gold and silver prices are on an upward trend, indicating a favorable market environment for mining companies [1] - Long-term capital expenditure for mining companies is expected to remain relatively high, supported by both maintenance and new capital expenditures, particularly in a stable production environment [1] ETF and Index Overview - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals mining index (931892), which includes publicly traded companies involved in the development of metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, effectively reflecting the market trends of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that Zhuhai Group's profitability has significantly improved in Q3 2025, driven by a substantial increase in gold prices [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 329 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.44%, accelerating from a growth rate of 70.9% in Q2 2025 by 1.54 percentage points [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 12.62%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from 12.31% in Q2 2025 [1] - The net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items was 6.24% in Q3 2025, up by 0.69 percentage points from 5.55% in Q2 2025 [1] Strategic Development - The company continues to implement a dual-driven development strategy focusing on lead-zinc and precious metals, which is expected to enhance profitability as precious metal prices rise further [1] - With the restructuring of equity relationships, the process of asset injection may accelerate, further boosting the company's internal growth momentum [1] Market Outlook - Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to multiple favorable factors, including declining fiat currency credibility and rising inflation expectations, which will likely benefit the company's performance [1] - Based on the 2025 price-to-earnings ratio valuation of comparable companies, a target price of 20.4 yuan is set for the company, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Nonferrous Metal Industry's Group, is focusing on expanding its mining operations primarily in lead and zinc while also exploring opportunities in other metal varieties to increase its reserves of nonferrous metals [1] Group 1 - The company currently prioritizes lead and zinc in its mining operations [1] - The company aims to leverage its existing base in lead and zinc to explore and develop other metal varieties [1] - The strategy includes a continuous increase in the reserves of nonferrous metal resources [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE of 30/21/16X for the years 2025-2027 respectively [6][9]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 750 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 37% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 34.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 116.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 308.6% [3][6]. - The rise in metal prices, particularly silver, has significantly improved the company's profitability. The average price of silver in the first three quarters of 2025 was 8566 yuan/kg, up 23% year-on-year, while the Q3 average price was 9413 yuan/kg, up 26% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company is progressing well with its existing mining projects, with the Caiyuanzi gold mine entering trial production and expected to reach an annual gold output of approximately 1.2 tons once fully operational [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.5% [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 55.9%, up 12.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 23.8%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Profit Breakdown - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 136 million yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by a gross profit increase of 218 million yuan. Other income sources contributed positively, while expenses and taxes had a negative impact [5][6]. Project Developments - The company has successfully completed technical upgrades at the Jingshan Mining project to enhance silver and gold recovery rates and reduce processing costs. The Dongsheng Mining project is expected to commence production in 2026, with a processing capacity of 250,000 tons per year [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 519 million yuan, 735 million yuan, and 995 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 21, and 16 [6][8].