1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper show a mixed picture: smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, the July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the basis shows a premium of the spot over the futures; the inventory situation is complex with a decrease in some and an increase in others; the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average moving downward; the main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing. The expected copper price will experience a shock adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. - The logical factors affecting copper include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79050 with a basis of 160, showing a premium of the spot over the futures, considered neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 19, copper inventory decreased by 450 to 155150 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, considered bearish [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main net positions are long but the long positions are decreasing, considered bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The copper price will experience a shock adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: The logical factors affecting copper include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, the production was 12060000 tons, the import was 3730000 tons, the export was 460000 tons, the apparent consumption was 15340000 tons, the actual consumption was 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance was a surplus of 110000 tons [21].

Report's Core View - The copper market's fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened, and the July manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. Inventory conditions are neutral. The price is above the 20-day moving average with the average trending upwards, and the main positions are net long but decreasing, both being bullish. Given the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - The logical factors affecting the copper market include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table presents production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with smelting production cuts, scrap copper policy changes, and a decline in July's manufacturing PMI [2]. - Basis: Bullish, with a spot price of 79465 and a basis of 515, showing a premium over futures [2]. - Inventory: Neutral, with copper inventory decreasing by 25 to 155850 tons on August 14 and SHFE copper inventory increasing by 9390 tons to 81933 tons from the previous week [2]. - Disk: Bullish, with the closing price above the 20 - day moving average and the average trending upwards [2]. - Main positions: Bullish, with the main net positions being long but decreasing [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as slow Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logical factors are domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of bullish and bearish factors are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - 2024 has a slight surplus, and 2025 is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 shows detailed data on production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [20][22]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [14][16].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 2、基差：现货79120，基差100，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：8月12日铜库存减700至155000吨，上期所铜库存较上周增9390吨至81933吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增 ...