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供给短缺是利好铜价的中期逻辑,积极锚定资源增储或成行业趋势
Orient Securities· 2025-11-09 05:27
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The supply shortage is a favorable mid-term logic for copper prices, and actively anchoring resource reserves may become a trend in the industry [2] - The copper supply chain is experiencing frequent disruptions, leading to a significant reduction in expected increments, with a projected copper concentrate output of approximately 22.92 million tons in 2025, which is flat or slightly down from 2024 [7] - The demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to emerging fields such as renewable energy and AI data centers, with the International Energy Agency predicting a demand of over 12 million tons by 2040 [7] - Companies in the copper sector are actively seeking to increase their resource reserves, which is expected to enhance their profitability [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - It is recommended to focus on companies with substantial resource reserves and expected mid-term copper production increases, such as Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [7] - Other notable companies include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [7] - For copper smelting, companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Not Rated) and Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) are highlighted [7]