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矿紧局面延续 沪铜窄幅震荡【11月26日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 10:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices are supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and tight supply conditions, but high previous prices have suppressed demand, leading to a lack of upward momentum [1][2] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, with market focus shifting towards the long-term contract negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners as the year-end approaches [1] - Recent data shows a decline in domestic refined copper production over the past two months, suggesting that the tight supply situation may start to impact the smelting sector [1] Group 2 - There is an optimistic outlook for copper prices from New Lake Futures, citing that the production cuts from the Freeport Indonesia mine accident have exceeded market expectations, and demand in new consumption areas remains resilient [2] - The global copper supply and demand is expected to enter a substantial shortage by 2026, with copper prices likely to continue rising, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [2] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming release of the U.S. PCE data, which may influence market sentiment [2]