Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper futures in Shanghai experienced significant strength, rising by 3.08% to reach 103,370.00 yuan/ton as of January 12 [1] - The average price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai increased by 2,895 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with a range of 102,850-103,600 yuan/ton [2] - Major copper smelting companies in China decided not to set a unified processing/refining fee (TC/RC) guidance price for imported copper concentrate for the first quarter of 2026 [2] Group 2 - A report from Yide Futures highlights global copper supply tightness and insufficient elasticity, with new consumption from green energy and computing driving copper prices upward [4] - Dongwu Futures notes that the recent ADP employment data from the U.S. fell short of market expectations, indicating a still-weak labor market, while the initial jobless claims showed some resilience [4] - The high copper prices are suppressing domestic demand, leading to low spot transaction volumes and a continued accumulation of inventory, with the pace of accumulation faster than in previous years [4]

展望下半年，预计铜消费需求将延续稳中向好态势。其中，电力行业将成为核心增长动力。 电力领域用铜主要体现在两大投资指标：电网工程投资与电源工程投资。电网用铜涵盖高压输电线路、 变电站设备及配电系统等。2025年，国家电网全年投资有望首次突破6500亿元，同比增长约8%。若考 虑年中可能出台的逆周期调节政策，投资预期仍有上调空间。按每亿元电网投资带动800吨~1000吨铜 消费估算，2025年，电网工程耗铜量预计可达585万吨。 据国际能源署(IEA)《世界能源投资报告》，2025年，全球发电投资预计达1.01万亿美元，储能投资约 660亿美元。其中，中国能源投资占比超过25%。据此推算，2025年，中国电源工程投资额约为1.93万 亿元。若按每亿元电源投资带动200吨铜消费计算，电源工程耗铜量预计达386万吨，成为铜消费增长的 重要支柱。 今年上半年，沪铜价格整体呈现"成本推动+宏观扰动"驱动下的"阶梯式"上涨格局。尽管需求存在一定 隐忧，但矿石供需矛盾突出及区域性供应紧张，成为支撑铜价韧性的主导因素。 铜矿供应紧张难解国产废铜进入季节性淡季 2025年，国内冶炼厂与海外矿商已敲定下一年度铜精矿长单加工费为每吨 ...