Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff negotiations have achieved initial results, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad tends to decline. However, as the traditional off-season of consumption approaches, copper prices may be strong first and then weak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,450 yuan, up 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 111,450 lots, down 5,268 lots; the open interest was 181,319 lots, up 1,627 lots; the inventory was 19,165 tons, down 375 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,205 yuan, down 230 yuan. The Shanghai copper basis and various spot premiums and discounts, as well as the spreads between near - and far - month contracts, showed different degrees of change [2]. - **London Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures settlement price (electronic trading) was 9,445.5 US dollars, up 14 US dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased, and the spreads of different LME copper futures contracts also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.654 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars, and the total inventory was 160,250 tons, up 3,627 tons [2]. Company News - **Jinchengxin**: It plans to acquire a 50% stake in Colombia's OM Company for 100 million US dollars and gain control. It will invest 230 million US dollars in the construction of the Alacran copper - gold - silver mine project, with an estimated investment of 420.4 million US dollars, a construction period of 2 years, and an expected mine life of 12 years. The company will contribute about 202.22 million US dollars according to the equity ratio and lead the subsequent development and construction of the mine, with an average annual ore mining volume of about 6.1 million tons, equivalent to 25,000 tons of copper, 1.4 tons of gold, and 16 tons of silver [2]. - **Codelco and Escondida Mine**: In March, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons, and the Escondida mine under BHP Billiton's smelting had a 18.9% year - on - year increase in copper production to 120,600 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economic**: The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, an increase in the debt ceiling of 5 trillion US dollars, and a reduction in government spending of 4 billion US dollars. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars in 2026. The US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April were not bad, delaying the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Some copper mines in Peru, Poland, Kazakhstan, etc. have production changes such as resumption or suspension. Some copper smelters at home and abroad have production adjustments due to various reasons, such as accidents, overhauls, and new capacity launches. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume, electrolytic copper production (import) volume, and waste copper production (import) volume may change in May. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area, social inventory, and LME inventory decreased, while the COMEX inventory increased [2]. - **Downstream**: The new orders and long - order executions of refined copper rod enterprises decreased significantly, resulting in a decline in the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and an increase in that of recycled copper rods. The capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper product enterprises may decline in May, with different performances in different sub - industries [2]. 4. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets: 70,000/73,000 - 75,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 8,700 - 8,900 US dollars for London copper, 4.3 - 4.58 US dollars for COMEX copper on the support side, and 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, 4.85/5.0 - 5.2 US dollars for COMEX copper on the resistance side [3].