Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In June, the supply and demand of alumina will both increase, with the overall复产 volume being higher, reversing the de - stocking trend. The overall fluctuation center will decline as costs decrease, and there are many uncertainties in the ore end, leading to a wider fluctuation range. The supply increase of electrolytic aluminum is limited, with both off - season demand pressure and structural resilience coexisting, and the sector differentiation is more obvious. New energy vehicles, UHV cables, and export windows are the main highlights. At the beginning of the month, the low - level de - stocking provides support for the market, but after a marginal surplus appears, it may enter a stocking phase, and the overall operating center will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and stocking performance, and be vigilant against the risk of excessive decline [3] Summary by Directory Price - In May, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 2,962 yuan/ton on the 30th, a monthly increase of 8.5%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,070 yuan/ton on the 30th, a monthly increase of 0.8% [5] Spread - In May, the alumina spread widened from a premium of 171 yuan/ton to a premium of 315 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum spread changed from a discount of 20 yuan/ton to a premium of 110 yuan/ton [5] Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in May will increase to 86.96 million tons, with a production of 7.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in May remained stable at 43.91 million tons, with a production of 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] Demand - The late - stage strength of cables combined with concentrated export rush led to a narrowing decline in the off - season start - up rate. In May, the average start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 61.6%, a 0.6% decline compared to April. Among them, the start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 0.65% to 67.4%, the start - up rate of aluminum foils decreased by 1.66% to 70.99%, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 2.13% to 56.75%, and the start - up rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.85% to 65.1% [3][5] Inventory - In terms of exchange inventories, in May, the alumina inventory decreased by 101,800 tons to 135,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 37,300 tons to 141,300 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 42,500 tons to 375,000 tons. In terms of social inventories, the alumina inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 25,000 tons, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 132,000 tons to 511,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 22,700 tons to 128,300 tons [3][5]