| | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | 现场会议：中信证券股份有限公司、云南能投资本投资有限公司、 | | | 西藏合众易晟投资管理有限责任公司等投资机构、行业分析师 4 人。 | | 时 间 | 2025 年 6 月 12 日上午 10:00-11:30 | | 地 点 | 现场会议地址：云南铝业股份有限公司一楼会议室。 | | 上市公司接待 人员姓名 | 证券事务代表：王冀奭先生 | | | 投资者提出的主要问题及公司回复情况如下： | | | 1.公司现金流、资产负债率等关键指标持续向好，会考虑提高 分红比例吗？ | | | 回复：云铝股份一直高度重视和维护投资者利益，近年来公司 | | | 年公司累计分红金额约 亿元，占 的现金分红稳步提升，2024 14.22 | | | 公司 2024 年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例为 32.23%。未来， | | 投资者关系活 | 公司将坚 ...

Group 1 - The core CPI in the US for May increased by only 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%, while the annual CPI recorded 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5% [1] - The lower-than-expected inflation data has boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a short-term spike in gold prices, which broke above 3360 [1] - The COMEX gold price rose by 127.8 USD to 3376.10 USD per ounce since early May, supported by increased demand from central banks and investors [1] Group 2 - The aluminum industry faces limited supply elasticity due to a production cap of 45 million tons and policy constraints, while demand is driven by the new energy and home appliance sectors [1] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a recovery in demand due to policy adjustments and new application scenarios, such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy, leveraging China's global advantages in production and technology [1]

铝策略月报 2025 年 6 月 1 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据SMM，预计5月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能增至8696万吨，产量735万吨，环比增长3.5%，同比增长5.2%；广西地区企 | | | 业检修结束、恢复生产，其他多地持稳，开工延续回升；5月国内电解铝运行产能持稳在4391万吨，产量373万吨，环比增长3.4%， | | | 同比增长2.7%，铝水比小幅回落至74%。云南前期置换产能实现产出，水电表现暂不乐观，复产低预期。 | | | 2.需求：线缆滞后发力叠加集中抢出口，淡季开工下调幅度收敛。5月铝下游加工企业平均开工率61.6%，环比4月下滑0.6%。其中 | | | 铝板带开工率下滑0.65%至67.4%，铝箔开工率下滑1.66%至70.99%，铝型材开工率下滑2.13%至56.75%，铝线缆开工率上涨1.85%至 | | | 65.1%。铝棒加工费涨跌不一，其中河南持稳，新疆临沂上调20-50元/吨，包头无锡下调20-90元/吨；铝杆加工费全线下调100- | | | 150元/吨。 | | | 3.库存：交易所库存方面，5月氧化铝去库10.18万吨至1 ...

Core Insights - Yunnan Province's Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture is focusing on industrial economic growth by promoting green aluminum and biopharmaceutical industries, achieving a 11.2% year-on-year increase in industrial added value in Q1 [1] - The green aluminum industry is becoming a significant driver of industrial economic growth, with production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showing substantial year-on-year increases [1][2] Group 1: Green Aluminum Industry - Wenshan's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached 3.43 million tons, with a comprehensive output value exceeding 80 billion yuan last year [1] - In Q1, the production of alumina was 380,600 tons (up 5.1%), electrolytic aluminum was 722,000 tons (up 21.2%), and aluminum alloy was 467,600 tons (up 34.8%), generating a value of 22.485 billion yuan (up 34.8%) [1] - The region is developing a complete industrial chain for green aluminum, including processes from electrolytic aluminum to deep processing and recycling [2] Group 2: Industrial Development Initiatives - The establishment of the Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park is facilitating the production of aluminum alloy rods and other products, enhancing local industrial capabilities [2] - Wenshan is implementing a "chain master" enterprise model to promote local processing and manufacturing, with 21 aluminum-related projects introduced in the region [2] - The local government is committed to creating a "China Green Aluminum Valley" and integrating green electricity with advanced manufacturing [2][3] Group 3: New Energy Equipment Manufacturing - A recent agreement for an intelligent photovoltaic component manufacturing project marks a significant step in building the new energy equipment manufacturing industry chain in Wenshan [3] - The local government is enhancing the industrial economic environment by providing support and services to enterprises, focusing on key industries such as green aluminum and biopharmaceuticals [3][4] Group 4: Economic Support Measures - Wenshan is aiming for a target of 100 billion yuan in green aluminum output value for the year, with ongoing projects like the Funing Jinzhou New Materials project [4] - The government is implementing measures to improve service efficiency for enterprises, including regular consultations and support for project construction [4]

氧化铝&电解铝5月报 供应宽松，氧化铝震荡偏弱；库存支撑较强，电解铝震荡偏强 2025年4月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 盘面表现回顾 铝产业链供应情况 04 铝产业下游与终端表现情况 05 铝产业库存 01 观点与策略 观点策略 | | 观点 | 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供应端，随着澳大利亚雨季结束，铝土矿发运量回升，海外矿石供应持续走强； | | | | 晋豫地区矿山逐步复产，后续国内铝土矿供应偏紧局面或逐渐缓解，我国铝土矿 | | | | 供应整体继续往宽松状态转变，海内外铝土矿价格将延续回落态势。需求端，西 | | | | 南地区水力发电量较高，水量充足，五月下旬或逐步复产，但目前电解铝产能利 | | 氧化铝 | 震荡偏弱 | 用率已超96%，增长空间不大，氧化铝需求增量有限。国内氧化铝行业库存处于 | | | | 近四年同期最低位，低价格底部有一定支撑。综合来看，我国铝土矿整体供应逐 | | | | 步走向宽松，将持续对价格施压；海内外铝土矿价格延续回落态势，氧化铝成本 | | | | 持续下跌，生产利润维持小幅亏损状态。预计氧化 ...

铝策略月报 2025 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 氧化铝&电解铝：宏微转弱，稍有承压 p 4 1.1期货价格：4月氧化铝期货震荡走弱，月度跌幅3.1%；沪铝震荡偏弱，月度跌幅2.2% 资料来源：iFind，Wind，光大期货研究所 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据SMM，预计4月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能降至8288万吨，产量717万吨，环比下滑5%，同比增长7.4%；山东、山西、河南检 | | | 修规模扩大，广西贵州维持边际放产，基数效应下开工延续下滑；4月国内电解铝运行产能增至4390万吨，产量357万吨，环比下滑3.2%， | | | 同比增长1.6%，铝水比小幅回落至73%。四川、广西、青海等地复产开启。 | | | 2.需求：旺季临近尾声，线缆滞后发力而其他板块逐渐走弱。4月铝下游加工企业平均开工率62.4%，环比3月增长0.25%。其中铝板带开工 | | | 率下滑1.85%至68.65%，铝箔开工率下滑2.14%至73.43%，铝型材开工率上涨0.75% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE of 11/10/8X for the years 2025-2027 respectively [3][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 80.942 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.010 billion yuan, up 5.48% year-on-year [1]. - The product structure continues to optimize, leading to improved profitability, with significant increases in aluminum rod and cable production by 48.38% year-on-year [2]. - The company holds a significant market share in various segments, including 18.6% in aluminum wire domestically and 16.0% globally, ranking first in both categories [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 21.406 billion yuan, a 10.51% increase year-on-year, while the net profit decreased by 8.26% to 220 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 19.164 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.79% year-on-year growth, but the net profit fell by 26.55% to 207 million yuan [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 3.39%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 1.24%, a slight decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. Production and Pricing Metrics - In 2024, the production of aluminum rods was 327.97 million tons, down 3.80% year-on-year, while aluminum rod and cable processing fees averaged 499 and 732 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - The average price of aluminum ingots in 2024 was 19,921 yuan per ton, up 6.53% year-on-year [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.455 billion yuan in 2025, 1.622 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.850 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 8 [3][4].

Group 1 - Yunnan Province is enhancing its agricultural export capabilities by focusing on highland特色农业 and leveraging its resource advantages to develop unique agricultural products for international markets [1][2] - The province's trade with ASEAN has shown significant growth, with a projected trade volume of 109.32 billion yuan in 2024, marking ASEAN as Yunnan's largest trading partner for 20 consecutive years [2] - In the first quarter of this year, Yunnan's imports from ASEAN reached 3.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, while exports to ASEAN amounted to 2.98 billion yuan, growing by 23.1% [2] Group 2 - The opening of the China-Laos Railway has significantly improved cargo transportation efficiency, with cross-border cargo volume exceeding 1.5 million tons in the first quarter, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [2] - Yunnan's exports of agricultural products to Vietnam reached 1.55 billion yuan in the first quarter, showing a remarkable growth of 90.1% [3] - The Kunming Customs has implemented 22 measures to optimize the port business environment, facilitating smoother customs processes for Yunnan's export-oriented industries [4] Group 3 - The province is actively promoting cross-border e-commerce and supporting enterprises in expanding their markets, aiming to enhance the overall trade volume [4] - Yunnan's exports of fruits and nuts to ASEAN have surged, with a year-on-year increase of 132.6% in the first quarter [2] - The establishment of logistics hubs and overseas warehouses is part of Yunnan's strategy to strengthen its supply chain and enhance trade facilitation [4]