Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Weakening in a fluctuating manner [1] - Alumina: Trading in a range [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - It also provides the trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, with aluminum and aluminum alloy at 0 (neutral), and alumina at -1 (weakly bearish) [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - Shanghai Aluminum main contract: The closing price was 23,955, down 1685 from T - 5; trading volume was 451,208, down 485,903 from T - 5; open interest was 224,756, down 138,077 from T - 5 [1]. - LME Aluminum 3M: The closing price was 3059, down 205 from T - 5; trading volume was 24,872, down 22,559 from T - 5; LME注销仓单占比 was 11.01%, up 5.90% from T - 5 [1]. Alumina - Shanghai Alumina main contract: The closing price was 2824, up 13 from T - 5; trading volume was 420,118, down 453,523 from T - 5; open interest was 375,698, down 91,018 from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy main contract: The closing price was 22,595, down 1190 from T - 5; trading volume was 8206, down 15,184 from T - 5; open interest was 4530, down 4315 from T - 5 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 82.90 million tons, up 3.30 million tons from T - 5; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 15.03 million tons, up 0.75 million tons from T - 5; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.52 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from T - 5 [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 7524.75, up 470.00 from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The domestic average alumina price was 2646, down 2 from T - 5; the alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 theoretical profit was 380, down 60 from T - 1; the Baotai ADC12 price was 23,200, up 200 from T - 1 [1]. Others - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2275, down 50 from T - 1 [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from low-cost green electricity in Inner Mongolia, with significant growth potential from overseas projects, particularly in Saudi Arabia [2][33]. - The company has established a competitive advantage through its geographical location, which allows for lower transportation costs of bauxite and electricity generation from low-cost brown coal [19][22]. - The integration of renewable energy sources is expected to further reduce operational costs, enhancing profitability [30][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from electrolytic aluminum [11]. - Established in 2012, the company has developed substantial production capacity, including 300,000 tons of alumina and 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [11]. Business Analysis - The alumina production facility is strategically located near major ports, resulting in lower transportation costs for imported bauxite, providing a cost advantage of over 200 RMB per ton compared to inland competitors [19]. - The electrolytic aluminum production benefits from low electricity costs due to the use of local brown coal, with self-generated electricity costs at approximately 0.3 RMB per kWh [22][23]. - The company plans to develop a 1,750 MW wind and solar project, which will significantly reduce electricity costs and enhance its green energy profile [30][31]. Financial Analysis - The company forecasts substantial growth in net profit, with projections of 3.1 billion, 5.0 billion, and 6.7 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting annual growth rates of 51%, 63%, and 34% [3][56]. - The earnings per share are expected to increase from 1.49 RMB in 2025 to 3.25 RMB in 2027 [3][56]. - The company maintains a strong EBIT margin and return on equity, indicating robust profitability compared to industry peers [47][49]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company between 32.5 and 40.7 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of 24% to 55% compared to its current market value [2][64]. - The valuation is supported by the company's expected high growth over the next five years, with a projected PE ratio of 12-15 times for 2026 [2][64].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has issued a disqualification order against former executive director of National United Resources Holdings Limited, Lo Ka Wai, preventing him from serving as a director or manager of any listed or unlisted corporation in Hong Kong for three years [1] - The SFC found that in 2015, subsidiaries of National United Resources entered into two back-to-back fuel supply and sale transactions that were deemed fictitious due to the lack of genuine documentation and the involvement of parties closely related to the company [1] - Lo admitted to facilitating these transactions and approved payments totaling HKD 302 million for fictitious supply transactions, violating his duties and showing negligence [1] Group 2 - Legal proceedings against other former directors and senior personnel of National United Resources by the SFC are ongoing [2] - National United Resources has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since November 16, 1972, under stock code 00254, and operates in three main business segments: trading of coking coal, aluminum rods, and fuel; online platform business; and media and advertising [2] - Lo served as an executive director from October 17, 2013, to May 19, 2017 [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has issued a disqualification order against former executive director Lo Ka-wai of National United Resources Holdings Limited, prohibiting him from serving as a director or manager of any listed or non-listed corporation in Hong Kong for three years [1] - The SFC found that in 2015, subsidiaries of National United Resources entered into two back-to-back fuel supply and sale transactions that were deemed fictitious due to the involvement of related parties and the use of false documents [1] - Lo admitted to facilitating these transactions and approved payments totaling HKD 302 million for fictitious supply transactions, violating his duties and showing negligence [1] Group 2 - Legal proceedings against other former directors and senior personnel of National United Resources are still ongoing [2] - National United Resources has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since November 16, 1972, and operates primarily in three business segments: trading of coking coal, aluminum rods, and fuel; online platform business; and media and advertising [2] - Lo served as an executive director from October 17, 2013, to May 19, 2017 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to show a trending pattern, while alumina is on a long - term downward path. The financial attribute of aluminum will continue to strongly drive the price in 2026, and the global supply - demand shortage of aluminum will support the price. Alumina will maintain a cost - based pricing logic due to an oversupply situation [6][86]. - The consumption of aluminum will grow at a low rate but still have bright spots, such as in energy transformation, lightweight applications, and the export of aluminum - processed products. However, traditional industries like real estate and home appliances may still perform weakly [34][54]. - The supply of recycled cast aluminum alloy will be affected by raw material shortages and policy uncertainties, and its price will generally follow the trend of the aluminum price [89]. Summary by Directory Part One: Preface Summary 1. Market Review - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas tariffs, monetary policies, and the "de - dollarization" trend have affected the aluminum price. The supply - demand contradiction and low inventory have supported the price, and the cost has decreased while the profit has increased [5]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy futures were successfully launched this year. The price of aluminum alloy is highly correlated with the aluminum price, but the spot price of casting aluminum alloy has difficulty following the increase in the aluminum price [5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand situation at home and abroad has turned to oversupply, and the price has declined. The industry is shifting profits to the ore end, and there are basis trading opportunities [5]. 2. Market Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The financial attribute will continue to strongly drive the aluminum price. The supply - demand shortage and low inventory will give the price greater elasticity [6]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand pattern will remain slightly oversupplied, and the price will generally follow the metal sector and the aluminum price. There are risks in basis and cross - variety spreads [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation will continue, and the price will maintain a downward - selling strategy. There are policy risks, and basis trading opportunities still exist [6]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral**: Be bullish on the aluminum price on dips; the absolute price of casting aluminum alloy will follow the aluminum price, and pay attention to basis and variety spread opportunities before the expiration of warehouse receipts; maintain a downward - selling strategy for alumina, and pay attention to price elasticity risks driven by policy expectations [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the expansion of the monthly spread of aluminum at low inventory levels, the convergence of the basis at the end of the off - season, and the repeated arbitrage opportunities in the internal - external price difference; for aluminum alloy, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities in the range of a discount of 100 - 1400 yuan to the aluminum price and the spot - futures arbitrage opportunities; there are basis trading opportunities for alumina when the warehouse receipts are low and before expiration [7]. Part Two: Supply Rigidity and Global Shortage, Aluminum Price in a Trending Pattern 1. 2025 Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price showed a volatile upward pattern in 2025, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract price ranging from a minimum of 19,000 yuan to a maximum of 22,980 yuan, an annual increase of 13.8% [11]. - The price increase in the first and fourth quarters was mainly driven by LME aluminum, while in the second and third quarters, the price rebounded steadily after a decline [12][13]. 2. 2026 - 2030 Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Outlook - **Domestic**: The supply - side constraints on domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity still exist. The capacity will reach the theoretical ceiling in 2026, and the supply elasticity will decrease significantly. The production in 2026 and 2027 will have limited growth [20][21][22]. - **Overseas**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to increase by 820,000 tons in 2026 and 1.65 million tons in 2027. The new - investment capacity is mainly concentrated in Indonesia [24][25]. - **Imports**: China will still rely on imported aluminum ingots in 2026, and the net import volume is expected to increase to 2.5 million tons [33]. 3. Aluminum Consumption with Low Growth but Bright Spots - **Export of Aluminum - processed Products**: The export volume of aluminum - processed products in 2025 is expected to be about 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. It is expected to turn positive in 2026, with an increase of about 400,000 tons [34]. - **Domestic Aluminum Demand**: The proportion of domestic aluminum demand in the total apparent demand increased in 2025. The growth of domestic demand was mainly in the first half of the year, and the demand in the energy transformation and lightweight application fields will be a stable growth source [41][54]. - **Difference between Apparent Demand and Actual Output**: The apparent demand of aluminum is significantly higher than the actual output of aluminum - processed materials, mainly due to the inventory in the intermediate links of the industry [45]. - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry will still be weak, and the home appliance industry is expected to have a mild growth in air - conditioner production. The "aluminum - for - copper" substitution is ongoing [59][65]. 4. Certainties and Uncertainties of Aluminum - The global aluminum supply - demand gap may continue in the next five years, which will increase the price elasticity of aluminum. Tariffs and trade barriers mainly affect the price difference between regions, and the EU's CBAM policy may increase the trading cost [69][70]. - The aluminum market has a weak tolerance for supply - side uncertainties. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants face risks such as accidents, carbon tariffs, and energy supply, and the climate phenomenon may also affect production and demand [71]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Expectations - **Balance Sheet**: The global economic growth is expected to be slow from 2025 to 2030. The domestic aluminum demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 2.54%. The global aluminum supply - demand gap is expected to be 570,000 tons in 2026 and 330,000 tons in 2027 [72]. - **Inventory**: Overseas, the LME aluminum spot basis has been in a premium state, and the new regulatory rules may make the price increase more stable. Domestically, the overall inventory is expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly spread and basis during peak seasons [79][84]. 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors Affecting Aluminum Price The price of aluminum is affected by both financial and commodity attributes. In 2026, the resonance of these two attributes may push the aluminum price to break through previous highs, and the smelting profit is expected to be considerable [86]. Part Three: Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy Expected to Follow the Aluminum Price 1. Supply - Demand of Recycled Aluminum Alloy - **Supply**: In 2025, the total built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy reached 18.67 million tons, with a low production rate due to raw material shortages, price inversion, and policy disturbances. In 2026, about 1 million tons of new capacity are expected to be put into operation, but the supply growth is still restricted [89]. - **Demand**: The demand for recycled aluminum alloy is mainly from the transportation industry, especially in the automotive sector. The demand growth rate is expected to slow down in 2026 [94][95]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The industry is expected to face a shortage in 2025 and 2026. The futures market may drive demand, but the expiration of warehouse receipts may widen the basis [102]. 2. Scrap Aluminum Raw Materials - The global scrap aluminum trade has been growing steadily. China's scrap aluminum is in short supply and relies on imports. The application of scrap aluminum in non - alloy products is increasing, which will keep the scrap aluminum in short supply and narrow the refined - scrap price difference [105][108]. 3. Price and Spread of Recycled Aluminum Alloy The price of recycled aluminum alloy is highly correlated with the aluminum price. In 2026, it is expected to follow the aluminum price, but the seasonal performance of the spread may be weaker than in previous years [113][114]. Part Four: Alumina in an Oversupply Situation with a Long - term Downward Path 1. 2025 Alumina Market Review The alumina price showed a downward trend in 2025, mainly due to the improvement of the supply - demand situation. The price rebounded in May and July but then continued to decline. The domestic production capacity and output increased significantly [120][121][124]. 2. Alumina Supply Outlook - **Domestic**: The domestic alumina production capacity is expected to increase in 2026, with a theoretical maximum output of 103.68 - 104.68 million tons. After considering dynamic balance, the output is expected to be about 99.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [127][128]. - **Overseas**: The overseas alumina production is expected to increase by about 7% to 61.73 million tons in 2026 [133]. 3. Alumina Supply - Demand Balance Expectation The growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production is not significant, and there will be an oversupply of about 4 million tons at home and abroad in 2026. The alumina price will mainly follow the cost - based pricing logic, but the price may rebound if the supply - demand surplus narrows [141]. 4. Bauxite with Significant Increment and Expected Price Decline In 2025, the domestic bauxite production increased slightly, and the import volume increased significantly. The supply of bauxite is expected to be in surplus in 2026, and the price is expected to continue to decline, which will drive the alumina price down [145][153][154].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：承压运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 期货研究 | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22275 | -70 | | 410 | 1030 | 1505 | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22120 | - | | l | - | । | | | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2887 | | -14 | -2 | 17 | 284 | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices both at home and abroad rose and then fell. Economic data strengthened the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global visible inventories are in a state of accumulation and close to recent high levels, which may restrict future copper prices. Without unexpected events, copper prices will show a high - level oscillation, with low volatility. Attention should be paid to the performance of overseas financial markets and internal and external inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased and short - term support for aluminum prices exists, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious. Considering the cost support, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for favorable factors, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US economic data shows mild inflation and a possible worsening employment situation, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and BC copper decreased. The downstream acceptance of high - priced copper has improved, and overall demand is slowly recovering. However, high inventories may restrict copper prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures prices all declined. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot of aluminum ingots was at par or at a discount. The processing fees of some aluminum products were stable or decreased. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The benchmark price of nickel ore slightly declined, and the raw material support for the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain weakened. The inventory of stainless steel increased. Although the raw material end of the new energy industry chain is tight, the ternary precursor in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is large, and one can consider bottom - fishing based on cost support [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 375 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2851 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 5905 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts of SHFE lead decreased by 902 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3869 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.6 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 843 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 778 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 12 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons, and the registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 822 tons, while those of LME increased by 600 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.7%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 29 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 209 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are given [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and is a senior precious metals researcher. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won many awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: He has a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: She has a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the impact of the rainy season on bauxite mines will gradually fade, and the long - term agreement price may be slightly lowered. The loose pattern of alumina will continue, and the margin is expected to gradually converge. It is recommended to continue the strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long - term, while being vigilant against policy tightening at the Guinean mine end and irregular production cuts caused by environmental protection during the heating season or losses, which may lead to a phased oversold rebound. - In the fourth quarter, with the continuous implementation of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the price of electrolytic aluminum above the 20,000 - yuan mark will continue to be more likely to rise than to fall. It is advisable to mainly go long on dips. Whether the demand can be substantially improved after the Double Festival may determine the final high of the aluminum price this year. Attention should be paid to the demand fulfillment and the remaining two interest - rate cut dynamics of the Federal Reserve this year. - In the fourth quarter, with the cancellation of waste - aluminum tax rebates and the recovery of peak - season demand in November, aluminum alloys will strengthen relative to electrolytic aluminum, presenting an AD - AL arbitrage opportunity. Attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt registration and subsequent delivery [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price - In the third quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of September 25, the main contract closed at 2,942 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.4%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,765 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.9%. The aluminum alloy futures, which were listed in June, fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,385 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3% [6][8]. Supply - Alumina: From January to September, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 66.606 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The operating capacity rose to 91.35 million tons, and the operating rate rose to 82.8%. The domestic alumina supply has increased slightly, with new domestic and overseas alumina production capacities being put into operation at an excessive speed, and the pace of release slowing down after a significant narrowing of profits. - Electrolytic aluminum: From January to September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 32.757 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The operating capacity rose to 44 million tons, the operating rate rose to 96.3%, and the molten - aluminum ratio rose to 76%. The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, with technological transformation projects in Guangxi and early replacement projects in Guizhou and Yunnan gradually starting production [4][6]. Demand - The peak - season effect and the high - price suppression of inventory replenishment coexist. The average operating rate in the third quarter was 60.1%, a year - on - year decline of 2.51%. From June to August, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the average processing PMI at 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and cables declined significantly year - on - year, while aluminum profiles showed relative resilience [4][6]. Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 96,000 tons to 114,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 33,400 tons to 128,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 172,000 tons to 517,000 tons. - Social inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons; the aluminum - ingot inventory increased by 139,000 tons to 617,000 tons; the aluminum - rod inventory decreased by 36,500 tons to 123,000 tons [4][7]. Aluminum Ore - Production: Mines in Shanxi and Henan first resumed production and then were restricted by environmental protection. Domestic ore production first increased and then declined. - Import: In the third quarter, affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the proportion of ore imports gradually decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume was 1.82898 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [32][34]. Downstream - Operating rate: The operating rates of multiple downstream sectors declined year - on - year. The declines in the plate, strip, foil, and cable sectors were significant, at 6%, 5%, and 6% respectively. - Orders: From June to August, the average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI was 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth [56][62]. Capacity - Domestic alumina: The new incremental level is large, and the over - supply pressure will further increase. The total planned new capacity is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [71]. - Overseas alumina: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned new capacity is 14.4 million tons [72][73]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new capacity is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [74]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: There are regional differences and a lag in rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into operation in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [75]. Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina continues to be in surplus. From January to August, the overseas alumina and primary - aluminum production was 39.86 million tons and 19.66 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a decline of 0.1% [91]. Supply - Demand Balance - Alumina: It is expected to turn to a state where the surplus margin narrows in the fourth quarter. - Electrolytic aluminum: The demand will turn to a tight state in the fourth quarter [93][94]. Options - The report also analyzed the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes of alumina options and Shanghai aluminum options [96][103][107].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum processing industry, particularly the downstream sectors and their performance amid current market conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Aluminum processing fees have continued to decline, with July seeing a drop of over 30% in East and South China, leading to a capacity utilization rate of 43.75% [1][2]. - Despite the low demand season, August orders stabilized, and inventory levels decreased, leading to optimistic expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a slight increase in capacity utilization expected in September [1][3]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The total production capacity of aluminum profile enterprises exceeds 10 million tons, with an operational rate around 50% [1][3]. - The construction profile segment has been significantly impacted by the sluggish real estate market, with its share dropping from over 70% in 2019 to 45.7% in 2024 [1][3]. Real Estate Market Impact - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, with new construction area down by 19.4% and completion area down by 16.5%, resulting in a reduction of aluminum consumption in the real estate sector by 353,000 tons [1][3]. Export Opportunities - To cope with domestic market challenges, some aluminum profile enterprises are actively expanding exports, with coastal factories reporting an export proportion of over 50% [1][3]. - However, international trade frictions and policies regarding green aluminum pose challenges to this strategy [1][4]. Demand from New Energy Sectors - Demand for aluminum in the new energy sector is growing significantly, particularly in photovoltaic and new energy vehicle (NEV) fields, with a year-on-year increase of over 99% in new photovoltaic installations and over 38% in NEV production and sales from January to July [1][6]. Challenges in New Energy Market - Aluminum processing enterprises face challenges such as the cancellation of photovoltaic subsidies, rapid domestic capacity expansion, and high collaboration thresholds with major automotive companies [1][7]. Specific Market Segments - The aluminum plate and foil market is experiencing pressure due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and international trade frictions, with a cumulative export volume decrease of 9.5% from January to July [1][8][9]. - The aluminum rod market is expected to see demand driven by electric grid investments, with positive expectations for the third and fourth quarters [1][12][13]. Future Outlook - The overall demand growth for the aluminum industry is expected to remain steady but varies significantly across different segments, with construction profiles likely to see negative growth while new energy sectors may maintain double-digit growth [1][21][22]. - The aluminum processing sector is anticipated to face ongoing challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition, which may hinder profit recovery [1][24]. Additional Important Insights - The aluminum processing industry is characterized by a trend of larger enterprises increasing their melting capacity and sourcing recycled aluminum, while smaller enterprises focus on optimizing equipment and utilizing clean energy [1][5]. - The market for recycled aluminum ingots is expected to see a gradual price increase due to tight supply and supportive policies, with a projected price of around 20,000 yuan per ton [1][19]. - The overall sentiment among processing enterprises remains cautious, with many adopting a price-for-volume strategy to navigate the oversupply situation [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the aluminum industry.