期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：承压运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 期货研究 | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22275 | -70 | | 410 | 1030 | 1505 | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22120 | - | | l | - | । | | | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2887 | | -14 | -2 | 17 | 284 | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices both at home and abroad rose and then fell. Economic data strengthened the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global visible inventories are in a state of accumulation and close to recent high levels, which may restrict future copper prices. Without unexpected events, copper prices will show a high - level oscillation, with low volatility. Attention should be paid to the performance of overseas financial markets and internal and external inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased and short - term support for aluminum prices exists, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious. Considering the cost support, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for favorable factors, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US economic data shows mild inflation and a possible worsening employment situation, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and BC copper decreased. The downstream acceptance of high - priced copper has improved, and overall demand is slowly recovering. However, high inventories may restrict copper prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures prices all declined. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot of aluminum ingots was at par or at a discount. The processing fees of some aluminum products were stable or decreased. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The benchmark price of nickel ore slightly declined, and the raw material support for the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain weakened. The inventory of stainless steel increased. Although the raw material end of the new energy industry chain is tight, the ternary precursor in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is large, and one can consider bottom - fishing based on cost support [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 375 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2851 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 5905 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts of SHFE lead decreased by 902 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3869 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.6 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 843 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 778 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 12 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons, and the registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 822 tons, while those of LME increased by 600 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.7%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 29 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 209 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are given [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and is a senior precious metals researcher. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won many awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: He has a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: She has a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the impact of the rainy season on bauxite mines will gradually fade, and the long - term agreement price may be slightly lowered. The loose pattern of alumina will continue, and the margin is expected to gradually converge. It is recommended to continue the strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long - term, while being vigilant against policy tightening at the Guinean mine end and irregular production cuts caused by environmental protection during the heating season or losses, which may lead to a phased oversold rebound. - In the fourth quarter, with the continuous implementation of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the price of electrolytic aluminum above the 20,000 - yuan mark will continue to be more likely to rise than to fall. It is advisable to mainly go long on dips. Whether the demand can be substantially improved after the Double Festival may determine the final high of the aluminum price this year. Attention should be paid to the demand fulfillment and the remaining two interest - rate cut dynamics of the Federal Reserve this year. - In the fourth quarter, with the cancellation of waste - aluminum tax rebates and the recovery of peak - season demand in November, aluminum alloys will strengthen relative to electrolytic aluminum, presenting an AD - AL arbitrage opportunity. Attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt registration and subsequent delivery [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price - In the third quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of September 25, the main contract closed at 2,942 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.4%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,765 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.9%. The aluminum alloy futures, which were listed in June, fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,385 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3% [6][8]. Supply - Alumina: From January to September, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 66.606 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The operating capacity rose to 91.35 million tons, and the operating rate rose to 82.8%. The domestic alumina supply has increased slightly, with new domestic and overseas alumina production capacities being put into operation at an excessive speed, and the pace of release slowing down after a significant narrowing of profits. - Electrolytic aluminum: From January to September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 32.757 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The operating capacity rose to 44 million tons, the operating rate rose to 96.3%, and the molten - aluminum ratio rose to 76%. The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, with technological transformation projects in Guangxi and early replacement projects in Guizhou and Yunnan gradually starting production [4][6]. Demand - The peak - season effect and the high - price suppression of inventory replenishment coexist. The average operating rate in the third quarter was 60.1%, a year - on - year decline of 2.51%. From June to August, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the average processing PMI at 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and cables declined significantly year - on - year, while aluminum profiles showed relative resilience [4][6]. Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 96,000 tons to 114,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 33,400 tons to 128,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 172,000 tons to 517,000 tons. - Social inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons; the aluminum - ingot inventory increased by 139,000 tons to 617,000 tons; the aluminum - rod inventory decreased by 36,500 tons to 123,000 tons [4][7]. Aluminum Ore - Production: Mines in Shanxi and Henan first resumed production and then were restricted by environmental protection. Domestic ore production first increased and then declined. - Import: In the third quarter, affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the proportion of ore imports gradually decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume was 1.82898 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [32][34]. Downstream - Operating rate: The operating rates of multiple downstream sectors declined year - on - year. The declines in the plate, strip, foil, and cable sectors were significant, at 6%, 5%, and 6% respectively. - Orders: From June to August, the average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI was 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth [56][62]. Capacity - Domestic alumina: The new incremental level is large, and the over - supply pressure will further increase. The total planned new capacity is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [71]. - Overseas alumina: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned new capacity is 14.4 million tons [72][73]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new capacity is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [74]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: There are regional differences and a lag in rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into operation in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [75]. Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina continues to be in surplus. From January to August, the overseas alumina and primary - aluminum production was 39.86 million tons and 19.66 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a decline of 0.1% [91]. Supply - Demand Balance - Alumina: It is expected to turn to a state where the surplus margin narrows in the fourth quarter. - Electrolytic aluminum: The demand will turn to a tight state in the fourth quarter [93][94]. Options - The report also analyzed the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes of alumina options and Shanghai aluminum options [96][103][107].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum processing industry, particularly the downstream sectors and their performance amid current market conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Aluminum processing fees have continued to decline, with July seeing a drop of over 30% in East and South China, leading to a capacity utilization rate of 43.75% [1][2]. - Despite the low demand season, August orders stabilized, and inventory levels decreased, leading to optimistic expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a slight increase in capacity utilization expected in September [1][3]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The total production capacity of aluminum profile enterprises exceeds 10 million tons, with an operational rate around 50% [1][3]. - The construction profile segment has been significantly impacted by the sluggish real estate market, with its share dropping from over 70% in 2019 to 45.7% in 2024 [1][3]. Real Estate Market Impact - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, with new construction area down by 19.4% and completion area down by 16.5%, resulting in a reduction of aluminum consumption in the real estate sector by 353,000 tons [1][3]. Export Opportunities - To cope with domestic market challenges, some aluminum profile enterprises are actively expanding exports, with coastal factories reporting an export proportion of over 50% [1][3]. - However, international trade frictions and policies regarding green aluminum pose challenges to this strategy [1][4]. Demand from New Energy Sectors - Demand for aluminum in the new energy sector is growing significantly, particularly in photovoltaic and new energy vehicle (NEV) fields, with a year-on-year increase of over 99% in new photovoltaic installations and over 38% in NEV production and sales from January to July [1][6]. Challenges in New Energy Market - Aluminum processing enterprises face challenges such as the cancellation of photovoltaic subsidies, rapid domestic capacity expansion, and high collaboration thresholds with major automotive companies [1][7]. Specific Market Segments - The aluminum plate and foil market is experiencing pressure due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and international trade frictions, with a cumulative export volume decrease of 9.5% from January to July [1][8][9]. - The aluminum rod market is expected to see demand driven by electric grid investments, with positive expectations for the third and fourth quarters [1][12][13]. Future Outlook - The overall demand growth for the aluminum industry is expected to remain steady but varies significantly across different segments, with construction profiles likely to see negative growth while new energy sectors may maintain double-digit growth [1][21][22]. - The aluminum processing sector is anticipated to face ongoing challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition, which may hinder profit recovery [1][24]. Additional Important Insights - The aluminum processing industry is characterized by a trend of larger enterprises increasing their melting capacity and sourcing recycled aluminum, while smaller enterprises focus on optimizing equipment and utilizing clean energy [1][5]. - The market for recycled aluminum ingots is expected to see a gradual price increase due to tight supply and supportive policies, with a projected price of around 20,000 yuan per ton [1][19]. - The overall sentiment among processing enterprises remains cautious, with many adopting a price-for-volume strategy to navigate the oversupply situation [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the aluminum industry.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that aluminum prices are currently in a range-bound state, influenced by macroeconomic factors and domestic production dynamics [1] - As of this week, the total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in the country is 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, reflecting a weekly increase in the operating rate by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% due to the end of maintenance and profit-driven production increases [1] - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum processing enterprises has slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%, while the operating rate for aluminum wire and cable remains stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the total production of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with an operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% due to inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices [1] - Since late July, aluminum prices have retreated, and expectations for terminal deliveries have increased for August and September, suggesting that downstream consumption may recover from the off-season, although current inventory levels at aluminum rod manufacturers still need to be addressed [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas is 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Thursday, indicating a short-term support for aluminum prices from macroeconomic easing expectations [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum prices exhibited a range-bound movement, influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - As of Thursday, the total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in the country reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, resulting in a utilization rate of 83.20% [1] - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased to 58.7%, while the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the national aluminum rod production was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with a manufacturer operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% [1] - Factors such as inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices have led aluminum rod manufacturers to reduce production and conduct maintenance [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 588,000 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous Monday and the Thursday of the previous week [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic expectation of interest rate cuts is supporting aluminum prices, while short-term news from the mining sector is providing a boost to prices [1] - It is anticipated that aluminum prices will remain high in the short term, with a focus on inventory trends and macroeconomic sentiment [1] - Future considerations include macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical factors, mining sector recovery, and consumer demand release [1]

Report Overview 1) Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move down with a weak trend, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level. The finished products are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to have short - term range fluctuations [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down. Winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3]. - The view is that the finished products will run in a state of shock and consolidation, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Macro - level: The US data on Thursday triggered market concerns about the inflation and the interest - rate cut process. Traders tend to expect a 25 - basis - point cut next month and another 25 - basis - point cut in October [2]. - Fundamentals: As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20%. The domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%. The total output of aluminum rods in July was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate of aluminum rod manufacturers was only 53.2%, a decrease of 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year [3]. - Inventory: On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [3]. - Outlook: The macro - level interest - rate cut expectation supports the price. The short - term aluminum price is boosted by mine - end news. It is expected to run at a high level in the near future. The 8 - month aluminum rod supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, etc. [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner with a downward shift in the price center and weak performance, and the focus should be on macro policies and downstream demand [2][4]. - The aluminum ingot market is in a off - season with a slight accumulation of inventory. The price is expected to be in a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production impact of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will also shut down, affecting daily production by about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [4]. Aluminum and Related Products - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral transfers, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The impact on domestic bauxite supply from non - resumption of domestic mines is currently minimal, and the development of the news should be continuously monitored [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, and it is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [4]. - In July, the total output of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate was 53.2%, a 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year decrease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August [4]. - On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price center of aluminum is moving downward, alumina is experiencing continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy prices are following those of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,510, down 250 from a week ago and up 155 from a month ago. The trading volume was 127,617, a decrease of 17,683 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,572, down 60 from a week ago [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,162, down 60 from the previous day and 266 from a week ago. The trading volume was 275,347, a decrease of 105,822 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,920, down 30 from the previous day and 215 from a week ago. The trading volume was 2,098, an increase of 19 from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from a week ago. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,790.34, a decrease of 39.92 from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,274, unchanged from the previous day and up 19 from a week ago. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 294, a decrease of 38 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -249, unchanged from the previous day and up 59 from a week ago. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 19,500, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from a week ago [1]. Other Information - In June, China's imports and exports, exports, and imports all achieved positive year - on - year growth. The import increased by 1.1% and the export increased by 5.8% in US dollars. The export of industrial robots increased by 61.5% in the first half of this year [3].