Summary of the Conference Call on the Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum processing industry, particularly the downstream sectors and their performance amid current market conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Aluminum processing fees have continued to decline, with July seeing a drop of over 30% in East and South China, leading to a capacity utilization rate of 43.75% [1][2]. - Despite the low demand season, August orders stabilized, and inventory levels decreased, leading to optimistic expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a slight increase in capacity utilization expected in September [1][3]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The total production capacity of aluminum profile enterprises exceeds 10 million tons, with an operational rate around 50% [1][3]. - The construction profile segment has been significantly impacted by the sluggish real estate market, with its share dropping from over 70% in 2019 to 45.7% in 2024 [1][3]. Real Estate Market Impact - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, with new construction area down by 19.4% and completion area down by 16.5%, resulting in a reduction of aluminum consumption in the real estate sector by 353,000 tons [1][3]. Export Opportunities - To cope with domestic market challenges, some aluminum profile enterprises are actively expanding exports, with coastal factories reporting an export proportion of over 50% [1][3]. - However, international trade frictions and policies regarding green aluminum pose challenges to this strategy [1][4]. Demand from New Energy Sectors - Demand for aluminum in the new energy sector is growing significantly, particularly in photovoltaic and new energy vehicle (NEV) fields, with a year-on-year increase of over 99% in new photovoltaic installations and over 38% in NEV production and sales from January to July [1][6]. Challenges in New Energy Market - Aluminum processing enterprises face challenges such as the cancellation of photovoltaic subsidies, rapid domestic capacity expansion, and high collaboration thresholds with major automotive companies [1][7]. Specific Market Segments - The aluminum plate and foil market is experiencing pressure due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and international trade frictions, with a cumulative export volume decrease of 9.5% from January to July [1][8][9]. - The aluminum rod market is expected to see demand driven by electric grid investments, with positive expectations for the third and fourth quarters [1][12][13]. Future Outlook - The overall demand growth for the aluminum industry is expected to remain steady but varies significantly across different segments, with construction profiles likely to see negative growth while new energy sectors may maintain double-digit growth [1][21][22]. - The aluminum processing sector is anticipated to face ongoing challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition, which may hinder profit recovery [1][24]. Additional Important Insights - The aluminum processing industry is characterized by a trend of larger enterprises increasing their melting capacity and sourcing recycled aluminum, while smaller enterprises focus on optimizing equipment and utilizing clean energy [1][5]. - The market for recycled aluminum ingots is expected to see a gradual price increase due to tight supply and supportive policies, with a projected price of around 20,000 yuan per ton [1][19]. - The overall sentiment among processing enterprises remains cautious, with many adopting a price-for-volume strategy to navigate the oversupply situation [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the aluminum industry.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that aluminum prices are currently in a range-bound state, influenced by macroeconomic factors and domestic production dynamics [1] - As of this week, the total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in the country is 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, reflecting a weekly increase in the operating rate by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% due to the end of maintenance and profit-driven production increases [1] - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum processing enterprises has slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%, while the operating rate for aluminum wire and cable remains stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the total production of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with an operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% due to inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices [1] - Since late July, aluminum prices have retreated, and expectations for terminal deliveries have increased for August and September, suggesting that downstream consumption may recover from the off-season, although current inventory levels at aluminum rod manufacturers still need to be addressed [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas is 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Thursday, indicating a short-term support for aluminum prices from macroeconomic easing expectations [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum prices exhibited a range-bound movement, influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - As of Thursday, the total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in the country reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, resulting in a utilization rate of 83.20% [1] - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased to 58.7%, while the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the national aluminum rod production was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with a manufacturer operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% [1] - Factors such as inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices have led aluminum rod manufacturers to reduce production and conduct maintenance [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 588,000 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous Monday and the Thursday of the previous week [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic expectation of interest rate cuts is supporting aluminum prices, while short-term news from the mining sector is providing a boost to prices [1] - It is anticipated that aluminum prices will remain high in the short term, with a focus on inventory trends and macroeconomic sentiment [1] - Future considerations include macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical factors, mining sector recovery, and consumer demand release [1]

Report Overview 1) Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move down with a weak trend, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level. The finished products are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to have short - term range fluctuations [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down. Winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3]. - The view is that the finished products will run in a state of shock and consolidation, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Macro - level: The US data on Thursday triggered market concerns about the inflation and the interest - rate cut process. Traders tend to expect a 25 - basis - point cut next month and another 25 - basis - point cut in October [2]. - Fundamentals: As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20%. The domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%. The total output of aluminum rods in July was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate of aluminum rod manufacturers was only 53.2%, a decrease of 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year [3]. - Inventory: On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [3]. - Outlook: The macro - level interest - rate cut expectation supports the price. The short - term aluminum price is boosted by mine - end news. It is expected to run at a high level in the near future. The 8 - month aluminum rod supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, etc. [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner with a downward shift in the price center and weak performance, and the focus should be on macro policies and downstream demand [2][4]. - The aluminum ingot market is in a off - season with a slight accumulation of inventory. The price is expected to be in a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production impact of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will also shut down, affecting daily production by about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [4]. Aluminum and Related Products - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral transfers, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The impact on domestic bauxite supply from non - resumption of domestic mines is currently minimal, and the development of the news should be continuously monitored [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, and it is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [4]. - In July, the total output of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate was 53.2%, a 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year decrease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August [4]. - On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price center of aluminum is moving downward, alumina is experiencing continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy prices are following those of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,510, down 250 from a week ago and up 155 from a month ago. The trading volume was 127,617, a decrease of 17,683 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,572, down 60 from a week ago [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,162, down 60 from the previous day and 266 from a week ago. The trading volume was 275,347, a decrease of 105,822 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,920, down 30 from the previous day and 215 from a week ago. The trading volume was 2,098, an increase of 19 from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from a week ago. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,790.34, a decrease of 39.92 from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,274, unchanged from the previous day and up 19 from a week ago. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 294, a decrease of 38 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -249, unchanged from the previous day and up 59 from a week ago. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 19,500, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from a week ago [1]. Other Information - In June, China's imports and exports, exports, and imports all achieved positive year - on - year growth. The import increased by 1.1% and the export increased by 5.8% in US dollars. The export of industrial robots increased by 61.5% in the first half of this year [3].

Group 1 - The core CPI in the US for May increased by only 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%, while the annual CPI recorded 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5% [1] - The lower-than-expected inflation data has boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a short-term spike in gold prices, which broke above 3360 [1] - The COMEX gold price rose by 127.8 USD to 3376.10 USD per ounce since early May, supported by increased demand from central banks and investors [1] Group 2 - The aluminum industry faces limited supply elasticity due to a production cap of 45 million tons and policy constraints, while demand is driven by the new energy and home appliance sectors [1] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a recovery in demand due to policy adjustments and new application scenarios, such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy, leveraging China's global advantages in production and technology [1]

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In June, the supply and demand of alumina will both increase, with the overall复产 volume being higher, reversing the de - stocking trend. The overall fluctuation center will decline as costs decrease, and there are many uncertainties in the ore end, leading to a wider fluctuation range. The supply increase of electrolytic aluminum is limited, with both off - season demand pressure and structural resilience coexisting, and the sector differentiation is more obvious. New energy vehicles, UHV cables, and export windows are the main highlights. At the beginning of the month, the low - level de - stocking provides support for the market, but after a marginal surplus appears, it may enter a stocking phase, and the overall operating center will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and stocking performance, and be vigilant against the risk of excessive decline [3] Summary by Directory Price - In May, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 2,962 yuan/ton on the 30th, a monthly increase of 8.5%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,070 yuan/ton on the 30th, a monthly increase of 0.8% [5] Spread - In May, the alumina spread widened from a premium of 171 yuan/ton to a premium of 315 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum spread changed from a discount of 20 yuan/ton to a premium of 110 yuan/ton [5] Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in May will increase to 86.96 million tons, with a production of 7.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in May remained stable at 43.91 million tons, with a production of 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] Demand - The late - stage strength of cables combined with concentrated export rush led to a narrowing decline in the off - season start - up rate. In May, the average start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 61.6%, a 0.6% decline compared to April. Among them, the start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 0.65% to 67.4%, the start - up rate of aluminum foils decreased by 1.66% to 70.99%, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 2.13% to 56.75%, and the start - up rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.85% to 65.1% [3][5] Inventory - In terms of exchange inventories, in May, the alumina inventory decreased by 101,800 tons to 135,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 37,300 tons to 141,300 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 42,500 tons to 375,000 tons. In terms of social inventories, the alumina inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 25,000 tons, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 132,000 tons to 511,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 22,700 tons to 128,300 tons [3][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain weakly volatile in May, with limited upside potential, and the operating range is [2600 - 3000]. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to be strongly volatile in May, and the reference operating range is [19500 - 21000] [8] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is getting looser, demand growth is limited, and costs are falling. It is recommended to short on rallies [8] - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile. Supply remains strong, demand is slowly recovering, and low inventories support prices [8] 3.2 Review of Market Performance - As of April 25, LME aluminum first fell and then rose, down 2.52% month-on-month compared to March. SHFE aluminum mainly fluctuated after a decline, down 2.98% month-on-month compared to March. Alumina maintained a weakly volatile trend, down 2.4% month-on-month compared to March [11][15] 3.3 Supply Situation of the Aluminum Industry Chain - Domestic bauxite production has limited growth and supply is tight. In March, the output was 575,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27,000 tons [19][20] - Overseas bauxite shipments have declined overall. In March, shipments from Guinea decreased by 428,000 tons month-on-month, while those from Australia increased by 164,000 tons month-on-month [24][25] - Imports have increased significantly, alleviating the tight supply situation. In March, imports were 1.64657 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 205,090 tons [28][29] - Alumina production is at a high level, and the supply side is strong. In March, production increased to 744,900 tons month-on-month [32][33] - The import window remains closed, and net imports are at a very low level. In March, the net import volume was -285,600 tons [36][37] - Raw material prices have fallen, and the costs of both alumina and electrolytic aluminum continue to decline. As of April 25, the alumina production cost dropped to 2946.3 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum production cost in March was 15,235 yuan/ton [39][40] - Electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization remains high. In March, it rose slightly to 96.23%, and the output was 372,880 tons [44][45] - The aluminum rod operating rate continues to operate at a high level. In March, it was 58.48%, and the output was 149,600 tons [49][50] - The net export pattern of aluminum ingots continues. In March, the net import volume was -261,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.84% [54] 3.4 Downstream and Terminal Performance of the Aluminum Industry - The operating rates of downstream sectors of electrolytic aluminum have increased. Aluminum profiles rose to 45.49%, aluminum rods to 60.6%, and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils to 74.4% [59] - Aluminum product exports have slowed down due to domestic and overseas policies. From January to March, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 196,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum cables was 61,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.02% [62][63] - Real estate indicators have shown narrowing declines. From January to March, the cumulative real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, the new construction area decreased by 24.4%, and the completed area decreased by 14.3% [72][73] - The automobile production - sales ratio has declined significantly. In March, the production was 3.0058 million vehicles, the sales were 2.9155 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio was 0.9699 [76][77] - Refrigerator growth has slowed down significantly, while washing machines and air conditioners have maintained growth. From January to March, refrigerator production increased by 3.7% year-on-year, washing machine production increased by 13.9%, and air conditioner production increased by 9.7% [80][81] 3.5 Aluminum Industry Inventory - Bauxite supply is gradually easing, but port inventories remain at a very low level. As of April 25, the port inventory was 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 222,000 tons [84][85] - Alumina inventories continue to accumulate, and supply is gradually loosening. As of April 25, the inventory was 399,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.91% [88][89] - Aluminum ingot inventories continue to decline, and support continues to strengthen. As of April 28, the social inventory was 66,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 149,000 tons [92][93] - Both SHFE and LME inventories are in a state of decline. As of April 25, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 71,293 tons month-on-month, and LME inventory decreased by 40,875 tons month-on-month [97][98]

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, May 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Based on the logic of marginal oversupply and a downward - moving cost center, it is advisable to short at high prices and consider bottom - fishing in stages. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption rhythm in the southwest on alumina inventory dynamics. The macro - risk pricing ratio remains relatively high due to the vacillating US attitude towards tariffs on China and the possible shift in Fed policies. Aluminum demand lacks resilience after a slow decline, and inventory may reach an inflection point for accumulation. Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with the spread between June and September having room to converge. Attention should be paid to the effects of domestic stimulus policies, tariff dynamics, and the resumption progress in Yunnan [3]. Summary by Directory Price - In April, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 2,846 yuan/ton on the 25th, a monthly decline of 3.1%. Shanghai aluminum also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20,030 yuan/ton on the 25th, a monthly decline of 2.2% [5]. Spread - In April, the alumina shifted from a premium of 146 yuan/ton to a premium of 26 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum shifted from par to a discount of 10 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that in April, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina decreased to 8,288 tons, with a production of 7.17 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased to 4,390 tons, with a production of 3.57 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The molten aluminum ratio slightly dropped to 73% [3][5]. Demand - As the peak season is approaching its end, the cable sector is showing a late - stage boost while other sectors are gradually weakening. In April, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25% compared to March. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 1.85% to 68.65%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 2.14% to 73.43%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.75% to 58.88%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 5.7% to 62.2%. The processing fees of aluminum rods increased across the board by 100 - 250 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of aluminum bars were stable with some increases, with Wuxi remaining stable and other regions increasing by 20 - 160 yuan/ton [3][5]. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory, in April, alumina inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 236,900 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 42,800 tons to 190,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 53,000 tons to 423,600 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 55,000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 169,000 tons to 658,000 tons; aluminum bar inventory decreased by 94,200 tons to 177,800 tons [3][5].