Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a slight increase in prices and a reduction in inventory levels, with expectations for continued demand despite potential short-term fluctuations due to seasonal factors [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 19, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 22,185 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest by 290 contracts [1] - During the week of December 15-19, the aluminum futures opened at 22,085 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 22,240 CNY/ton and a low of 21,610 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.11% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October 2025, global primary aluminum production was reported at 6.0154 million tons, while consumption was 6.1241 million tons, leading to a supply shortage of 108,700 tons [2] - From January to October 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 61.2165 million tons, with consumption at 62.1720 million tons, resulting in a cumulative supply shortage of 955,500 tons [2] - Nimba Mining plans to restart mining operations with a target of exporting 10 million tons by 2026, having already exported 680,000 tons of bauxite [2] Group 3: Inventory Levels - As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 578,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas was 119,500 tons, down by 7,000 tons [2] Group 4: Institutional Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, the Federal Reserve has room for a 50 to 100 basis point rate cut, but no immediate action is necessary given the current economic outlook [4] - The short-term supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with limited production growth expected in December, while demand remains acceptable despite a slight decline in downstream operating rates [4] - Nanhua Futures notes that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, which may increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, while the aluminum market is expected to maintain a strong outlook in the medium term [5]