机构观点汇总： 本周(12月15日-12月19日)市场上看，沪铝期货周内开盘报22085元/吨，最高触及22240元/吨，最低下探至21610元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.11%。 消息面回顾： 据外媒报道，世界金属统计局(WBMS)公布的最新报告显示，2025年10月，全球原铝产量为601.54万吨，消费量为612.41万吨，供应短缺10.87万 吨。2025年1—10月，全球原铝产量为6121.65万吨，消费量为6217.20万吨，供应短缺95.55万吨。 据外媒报道，近日几内亚国有矿业公司Nimba Mining总经理Patrice L'Huillier向媒体表示，该公司计划本月重启采矿作业，目标2026年出口1000万 吨，并逐步将产量提升至1400万吨。10月底，Nimba Mining已经开始出口GAC被撤销许可证前库存的150万吨铝土矿，截至目前，已运出68万 吨。 12月18日，电解铝锭库存57.8万吨，减少1.8万吨；国内主流消费地铝棒库存11.95万吨，环比减少0.7万吨。 截至2025年12月19日当周，沪铝期货主力合约收于22185元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持290手。 申银万国期 ...

Core Insights - Aluminum is gaining market attention, with prices nearing $2,900 per ton, marking a three-year high and within the top 5% of the price range from 1990 to 2025, indicating a potential structural shortage in the coming years [1][3] - The global aluminum supply surplus is expected to narrow by 2026, leading to a projected supply deficit of approximately 1.4 million tons by 2027, driven by increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][6] - China, as the largest producer and consumer of aluminum, is approaching its production capacity limit of 45 million tons, which could impact global supply dynamics [3][5] Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by electric vehicles, which use about 150 pounds more aluminum than internal combustion engine vehicles, and by the solar power sector, where aluminum is the second-largest metal input after steel [4] - Global aluminum production is facing challenges, particularly in Europe, where smelters are closing due to the expiration of long-term cheap electricity contracts, contributing to a tightening supply situation [6] - Indonesia is emerging as a key player in the aluminum market, with potential plans for new smelting facilities that could increase its production fivefold by 2030, positioning it as the fourth-largest producer globally [7][8] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a dual outcome for the aluminum market: either prices will rise significantly, impacting the global economy, or the supply chain will become increasingly reliant on Chinese companies operating overseas [3][9] - The most likely scenario is a moderate price increase alongside a gradual rise in overseas production from countries like Indonesia, leading to a market adjustment to higher prices and deeper reliance on Chinese supply chains [9]