1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina are improving marginally, but a significant breakthrough still requires a driving force. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range oscillation. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's bauxite policies, and the Iran geopolitical conflict [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Futures price: As of March 6, the alumina index had risen 3.04% to 2,845 yuan/ton compared to the price on January 30. The overall commodity market sentiment was bullish, the alumina supply tightened marginally, and the Iran geopolitical conflict increased concerns about Middle - East alumina supply, leading to an upward oscillation in futures prices. For a sustained rebound, strong supply - side contraction policies, Guinea's bauxite price - support policies, and full digestion of warehouse receipts are needed. As of March 6, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 222 yuan/ton to the AO2605 contract price, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts was - 34 yuan/ton [11][21]. - Spot price: Due to increased capacity maintenance in February, the alumina supply tightened marginally, causing the spot price to rebound. As of March 6, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2,695 yuan/ton, 2,750 yuan/ton, 2,665 yuan/ton, 2,610 yuan/ton, 2,655 yuan/ton, and 2,950 yuan/ton respectively, up 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton from early February [11][18]. - Inventory: As of March 6, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 15.7 tons to 572.2 tons compared to early February. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit, and at ports increased by 3.6 tons, decreased by 5 tons, increased by 7.6 tons, and increased by 9.5 tons respectively [11][64]. 3.2 Supply - Side - Production: In January 2026, the alumina production was 7.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. Due to shrinking profits, more alumina capacity was under maintenance and new production was delayed, leading to a marginal tightening of supply [12][41]. - New production capacity: The planned new domestic alumina production capacity in 2026 is 13.4 million tons, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q4 [43][44]. - Profit: The alumina spot price rebounded, and the profit of alumina plants improved. On March 6, the production profit in Guangxi was 105 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian and Guinean ore was 190 yuan/ton each. In Shanxi and Henan, using Guinean ore would result in a loss of 50 yuan/ton and a profit of 40 yuan/ton respectively [46]. 3.3 Raw Material - Side - Bauxite price: As of March 6, the domestic bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged, and the CIF price of Guinean bauxite was flat, while the Australian CIF price dropped by 5 US dollars/ton to 55 US dollars/ton. The bauxite price reversal depends on large - scale overseas supply contraction, and the import cost of Guinean bauxite is a key price support, with 60 US dollars/ton approaching the cost line of some small and medium - sized mines [25]. - Bauxite production: In February 2026, China's bauxite production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.92%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16% [27]. - Bauxite import: In December 2025, China's bauxite import was 14.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The total import for the 12 months in 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48% [29]. - Guinea bauxite import: In December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%. The cumulative import in 2025 was 149.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.32% [32]. - Bauxite port inventory: As of February 27, 2026, the global bauxite shipments remained high, and China's bauxite port inventory was 26.14 million tons, indicating sufficient ore reserves [35]. - Bauxite inventory: In February 2026, China's bauxite inventory increased by 0.96 million tons to 58.86 million tons, reaching a five - year high. The inventory in Shanxi and Henan increased by 0.07 million tons each, and the inventory increase mainly came from Shandong and Guangxi [38]. 3.4 Import and Export - Alumina import and export data: In December 2025, the net alumina import was 21,900 tons. The import volume decreased from 232,000 tons to 228,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 168,000 tons to 210,000 tons. The total net export for the 12 months in 2025 was 1.35 million tons [49]. - Import window: As of March 6, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 1 US dollar/ton to 303 US dollars/ton compared to early February, and the import profit and loss was 1 yuan/ton. With the rebound of the domestic spot price, the import window was approaching [52]. 3.5 Demand - Side - Electrolytic aluminum production: In January 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.19% and a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [56]. - Electrolytic aluminum operation: In January 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.78 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.19% to 96.95% [59]. 3.6 Inventory - Social inventory: As of March 6, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 157,000 tons to 5.722 million tons compared to early February [64]. - Futures warehouse receipt and delivery inventory: As of March 6, 2026, the alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased significantly by 1.66 million tons to 3.37 million tons compared to early February, and the delivery inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had increased by 1.38 million tons to 4.028 million tons [67].