Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The price of bauxite will face short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the support of import costs. The current oversupply pattern in the smelting end continues, and there are still many new production capacities to be put into operation next year, so the bauxite price at the cost end becomes the core factor determining the bottom of alumina. Since this year, with the continuous reaching of production of bauxite projects in Guinea and non - mainstream countries, China's imports of overseas bauxite have increased significantly. The price reversal of bauxite depends on a large - scale contraction of overseas supply, and the import cost of Guinea bauxite is the key price support level [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. China's Bauxite Import Analysis - The alumina futures price has been continuously oscillating downward recently. Since November, the alumina weighted index has fallen by 3.7% to 2,710 yuan/ton. As of October this year, China has cumulatively imported 17,140 tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 30.11%. The main incremental countries include Guinea, Guyana, Malaysia, and Brazil, while Australia has a slight decline [5]. - In Guinea, China imported 12,743 tons of bauxite in the first ten months, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. After entering the rainy season, Guinea's shipments were blocked, resulting in a continuous three - month decline in imports, and it is expected to gradually recover in November [5]. - In Australia, China imported 3,160 tons of bauxite in the first ten months, a year - on - year decline of 4.23%, mainly because the local alumina restart has increased the local consumption of bauxite [5]. - From other non - mainstream source countries, China imported 1,237 tons of bauxite in the first ten months, a year - on - year increase of 85.98% [5]. 2. Has the Bauxite Price Reached the Bottom? - After the large - scale expansion of bauxite production capacity, the supply has gradually become oversupplied. Coupled with the continuous contraction of the profits of alumina smelters, the smelters' willingness to lower prices has increased. The price of Guinea bauxite has dropped from over $120/ton at the beginning of the year to $71/ton. Although there was a phased rebound due to the rainy season, the price has started to oscillate downward recently [21]. - As of November 28, the floating inventory of bauxite has increased from the previous 1.192 million tons to 1.38 million tons. Although the arrival volume decreased from August to October, the port inventory of bauxite remained at a high level, which will further increase the pressure on the bauxite price after the rainy season. The bauxite price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [21]. - The price reversal of bauxite depends on a large - scale contraction of overseas supply. The import cost of Guinea bauxite is the key price support level. The FOB cost of Guinea bauxite is in the range of $20 - $50/ton, and the cost of $40 is a relatively concentrated price. The sea freight from Guinea to China is currently fluctuating in the range of $20 - $25/ton. After the commissioning of Simandou iron ore, the sea freight may strengthen. Overall, $60 - $65 is expected to be a relatively strong support for the CIF price of Guinea bauxite, corresponding to an alumina price cost support of 2,450 - 2,550 yuan/ton. If the ore price falls below this range, it is expected to drive mining enterprises to contract supply [21].