1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term due to new production pressure, despite the rebound driven by supply disruptions in Guinea and the overseas price increase. The spot price has stopped falling in the short - term but is unlikely to rebound significantly. The supply of bauxite is becoming more abundant, and its price may continue to face downward pressure. The alumina supply is in a long - term surplus, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum remains stable. The export window remains closed, and short - term trading is recommended to be on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2505 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - As of 3 p.m. on April 18, the alumina index oscillated narrowly, falling 0.92% to 2800 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 21,000 lots to 410,000 lots. The basis widened, with the Shandong spot price at a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the main contract. Most regional spot prices stopped falling, except for slight drops in Guizhou and Shandong. The social inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 400.1 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4 tons to 28.77 tons. The bauxite supply is loosening, and its price may decline. The alumina production decreased by 3.7 tons to 164.4 tons this week due to smelter maintenance. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and operating rate increased in March [10][11]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices 3.2.1 Spot Price - Most regional alumina spot prices stopped falling this week, with Guizhou and Shandong prices dropping 15 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. Short - term stability is due to smelter maintenance and overseas price rebound, but significant rebounds are unlikely [19]. 3.2.2 Futures Price and Basis - As of April 18, the alumina index oscillated narrowly, falling 0.92% to 2800 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 21,000 lots. The Shandong spot price had a 66 - yuan/ton premium over the main contract, and the basis widened. The month - spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was - 28 yuan/ton and remained oscillating [22]. 3.2.3 Bauxite Price - This week, Guizhou bauxite prices dropped from 600 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, and Shanxi prices from 580 yuan/ton to 530 yuan/ton. Guinea CIF decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 88 dollars/ton, while Australia CIF remained at 86 dollars/ton. The bauxite supply is becoming more abundant [25]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Bauxite Production and Import - In March 2025, China's bauxite production was 523 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.62%. In February 2025, imports were 1441 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.15%. From Guinea, imports in February were 1073 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.05%. From Australia, imports in February were 236 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.52% [28][30][33]. 3.3.2 Bauxite Port and Inventory Data - The global bauxite floating inventory decreased by 164 tons to 1481 tons this week, while China's port inventory increased by 153 tons to 2211 tons. In March, the total bauxite inventory increased by 4 tons to 4111 tons, with Shanxi's inventory decreasing by 19 tons and Henan's increasing by 27 tons [38][41]. 3.3.3 Alumina Production and Import - Export - In March 2025, China's alumina production was 744.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. The operating capacity in March was 8860 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.99%. This week's production was 164.4 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons from last week. In February 2025, the net alumina export was 16.56 tons. As of April 18, the Australian FOB price rebounded by 19 dollars/ton to 348 dollars/ton, and the export loss was - 421 yuan/ton. In March 2025, overseas alumina production was 524.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [43][46][48]. 3.4 Demand Side - In March 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 373 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The operating capacity was 4379 tons, an increase of 13 tons from last month, and the operating rate increased by 0.27% to 96.23% [56][59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina supply in 2025 shows an increasing trend in production and capacity utilization. The demand from electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the total demand also shows a slow upward trend. The supply - demand gap is widening, with a surplus of 17 tons in January, 166 tons in February, 259 tons in March, and 364 tons in April [61]. 3.6 Inventory - The alumina social inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 400.1 tons this week, with decreases in electrolytic aluminum plants and in - transit inventory, no change in alumina plants, and an increase in port inventory. The SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4 tons to 28.77 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 31.0 tons [66][68].