周度报告—氧化铝 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格下跌，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 698 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 620 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 590 元/吨。氧化铝价格下行压力开始传导至国 产矿，下个月矿价预计继续下调。进口方面，期内受海运费回落 及未来供应增量预期影响价格出现小幅回落，几内亚主流报于 CIF 70.5-71 美元/吨。低品位现货矿价格约为 68-69 美元/干吨。 一季度长单定价预期 CIF 69-70 美元/吨。前期几内亚 AXIS 矿区 停产的矿山陆续恢复生产，顺达矿业预计 30 天左右矿山可恢复 至正常生产状态。中水电方面也已恢复生产，但目前新货产量较 为有限。高顶方面尚未恢复生产。红色矿业现已开始集港工作， 计划 12 月下旬开始装货。期内新到矿石 425.1 万吨，其中新到 几内亚资源 269.9 万吨，澳大利亚资源 149.1 万吨。几内亚至中 国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 25 美元/吨。 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方综合 价格在 2700-2750 元/吨，较上周跌 40 元/吨；国产加权 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价持稳， 氧化铝供应继续修复 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格小幅下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方 综合价格在 2800-2850 元/吨，较上周持平；国产加权指数 2831.9 元/吨，较上周下跌 2 元/吨。进口氧化铝港口报价在 2820-2880 元/吨，较上周持平。铝厂库存高位、长单执行充足，现货成交 有限。进口方面，东澳成交 3 万吨氧化铝 FOB 311.50 美元/吨， 折合人民币 2760 元/吨左右，进口窗口打开。截止当周，国内氧 化铝完全成本为 2817 元/吨，实时利润为 45 元/吨。供应方面， 运行产能前期因检修、环保和串线等因素下降，近两周在检修结 束后，开始再度回升。全国氧化铝建成产能 11462 万吨，运行 9670 万吨，较上周增 60 万吨，开工率 84.4%。 ★风险提示 几内亚矿石供给出现扰动。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | 孙伟东 | 首席分析师(有色金属) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 11 月 30 日 | 从业资格号： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the rainy season, shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to decline oscillating. The overcapacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthening. The cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on November 28, the alumina index rose 0.07% to 2739 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 35,000 lots to 608,000 lots. The alumina futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation this week. The Shandong spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the December contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 112 yuan/ton, and the weakness of the spot led to the relative weakness of the near - month contracts [11][24] - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [11][21] - **Inventory**: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 59,000 tons to 4.942 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 59,000 tons, 52,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 26,000 tons, and increased by 1,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 7,500 tons to 258,400 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 260,900 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from last week. The market of tradable spot was loose, and the registration volume of warehouse receipts further rebounded [11][70][72] - **Summary**: After the rainy season, shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to decline oscillating. The overcapacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthening. The cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [14] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [21] - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on November 28, the alumina index rose 0.07% to 2739 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 35,000 lots to 608,000 lots. The alumina futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation this week. The Shandong spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the December contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 112 yuan/ton, and the weakness of the spot led to the relative weakness of the near - month contracts [24] - **Bauxite Price**: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ores, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 71 dollars/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at 68 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume increased. The profit contraction led to an increase in the price - pressing意愿 of alumina enterprises. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline oscillating [27] 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The total production in the first ten months of 2025 was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production decreased month by month [31] - **Bauxite Import**: In October 2025, bauxite imports were 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The total imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [33] - **Bauxite Import by Country**: In October 2025, China imported 900,000 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, the imports declined, and it is expected to gradually recover. In October 2025, China imported 3.82 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 31.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [35][37] - **Bauxite Inventory**: In October, China's bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons, with a total inventory of 52.5 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 280,000 tons in October, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 360,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40] - **Alumina Production**: In October 2025, alumina production was 7.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The cumulative production in the first ten months of 2025 was 74.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03%. As of November 28, 2025, the weekly alumina production was 1.858 million tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons from last week [42][45] - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina factories was under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on November 28, Guangxi, with its relatively low local domestic ore price, had a current production profit of up to 150 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong were 10 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The cost of transporting imported ores from ports for inland alumina factories was about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the use of overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan had turned slightly loss - making [48] - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, the net import of alumina was 13,600 tons. The opening of the import window earlier drove the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 60,000 tons last month to 189,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 246,400 tons to 175,700 tons. The total net export in the first ten months of 2025 was 1.4375 million tons. As of November 28, the weekly FOB price in Australia decreased by 7 dollars/ton to 312 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 26 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price further declined, and the import window opened slightly [50][52] - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In October 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.84% and a month - on - month increase of 3.36%. The cumulative production in the first ten months of 2025 was 51.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.24% [54] 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. The total production in the first ten months of 2025 was 36.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [62] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated for November and December), showing data on alumina supply, demand, and net exports for each month [65] 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 59,000 tons to 4.942 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 59,000 tons, 52,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 26,000 tons, and increased by 1,000 tons respectively [70] - **SHFE Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 7,500 tons to 258,400 tons during the week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 260,900 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from last week. The market of tradable spot was loose, and the registration volume of warehouse receipts further rebounded [72]

氧化铝周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 供应端过剩未改 氧化铝延续弱势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，海关数据显示10月单月铝土矿进口回落至 1377万吨，为2025年单月最低，主要是几内亚雨季 影响，目前雨季影响过去，进口矿新产能存释放预 期，后续进口预计供应充足。供应端前期检修的广 西氧化铝厂复产，山东有一台氧化铝焙烧产能检 修，整体氧化铝开工产能基本大稳小动，上周开工 产能持平于9590万吨。消费端电解铝行业刚需招 标采购，消费稳定。仓单库存周内减少2744吨，至 25万吨，厂库0吨，持平。 ⚫ 整体，氧化铝供应 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply has little change after NIMBA Mining initiated the ship transfer procedure. The alumina price has a theoretical downward space, but over - speculation is not advisable. The industry is in an over - supply stage, and a bearish approach can be taken if there is a price rebound [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines are resuming production, but environmental controls in the north will reduce output. The supply of domestic ore is hard to improve in the short term. Guinea ore is priced at 71 - 72 dollars/dry ton, while downstream enterprises' purchase intention is at 69 - 70 dollars/ton. NIMBA Mining has initiated a 200,000 - ton ore ship transfer, and about 1.5 million tons of port inventory is to be exported. Some inland mines in Guinea will increase shipments in November. Newly - arrived ore was 3.845 million tons, including 2.793 million tons from Guinea and 1.052 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China is 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2837.5 yuan/ton, down 33.7 yuan/ton. The import port price was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged. Electrolytic aluminum plants are starting winter storage, and alumina enterprises are mainly fulfilling long - term contracts. The Australian alumina is priced at about 320 dollars/ton, and the cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2828 yuan/ton, with the northern theoretical import profit dropping to about - 26 yuan/ton. The domestic full - cost of alumina is 2819 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit is 89 yuan/ton. Some enterprises' roasting was suspended due to pollution warnings, while some increased production slightly. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with 96.85 million tons in operation, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate is 84.5% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianlong Mining stopped 27 electrolytic cells due to pollution warnings, affecting about 20,000 tons of production capacity. Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum plans to start 60 electrolytic cells on November 21, 2025, with a production capacity of about 66,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.233 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the operating capacity at 29.551 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the national alumina inventory was 4.218 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, the bagged inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the northern port inventory increased temporarily, and the inventory in other places also increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 253,654 tons, an increase of 16,487 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event Summaries in the Industry Chain - **Rise in Australian FOB Price and Decrease in Import Profit**: As of November 7, the Australian alumina price was about 320 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from October 31. The cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton. The domestic market declined slightly, and the northern theoretical import profit dropped to about - 26 yuan/ton. Due to overseas production cuts and upcoming Indonesian capacity, there is still pressure on overseas alumina prices [16] - **Profit and Loss of Alumina Enterprises and Production Expectations**: The alumina spot price has been falling for three months. Based on the October average price, about 28.95 million tons of the total 98.25 million tons of operating capacity of 39 alumina enterprises are in full - cost loss, accounting for 29.47%. The cash - cost loss capacity is 3.45 million tons, accounting for 3.51%. Losses are mainly in enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Guizhou [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by environmental controls, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to stop 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8. It had stopped 2 furnaces in late October due to pollution warnings and resumed on October 31 [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][23] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][38][41] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, total social inventory, port inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions are presented [44][47][49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are under pressure due to supply - demand surplus, with potential production cuts in November. If production cuts occur, prices may rebound; otherwise, they will remain under pressure. Overall, the price trend is to sell on rebounds next year [3][99] - The shortage of global electrolytic aluminum is more prominent overseas. Macro - and micro - factors will drive the upward trend of aluminum prices to continue. In November, domestic demand may support prices, and the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow [4][103] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Due to supply - demand surplus, prices are falling. The November spot long - term settlement price may approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity, leading to potential production cuts. If production cuts reduce the surplus, prices may rebound to around 3000 yuan/ton; otherwise, they will be under pressure. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global shortage is mainly overseas. With overseas production cuts and improving domestic demand, aluminum prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (alumina oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan, aluminum oscillating strongly between 21000 - 21800 yuan), arbitrage (long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum), and option trading (wait - and - see) [4] 2. Alumina Low - price Pressure on Cash Cost and November Supply - side Production Cut Expectations - **Raw Material End**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with stable prices but few transactions. Imported bauxite prices are theoretically under pressure, but spot transactions are scarce. The price of Guinea bauxite is around 72 - 73 dollars/dry ton. In September 2025, China imported 1588 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.5% [7][10][11] - **Alumina Price and Production**: As of late October, the national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, and the operating capacity was 9765 million tons. In October, the domestic alumina supply - demand surplus was 33 million tons (considering downstream inventory) or 17 million tons (based on social inventory). The average full cost of alumina in September was 2863 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 179 yuan/ton. In November, pay attention to production cuts due to high - cost capacity approaching cash cost and the impact of heavy - pollution weather [22][23][36] - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, China exported 24.6 million tons of alumina (a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 82.3%) and imported 6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 61.7%). The net export was 18.6 million tons [31] 3. Macro - and Micro - Factors Driving the Rise of Aluminum Prices - **Macro Factors**: In October, the overseas macro - market sentiment was first depressed and then improved. The expected further reaching of tariff agreements between the US and other countries and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation will support LME aluminum prices, but the US government shutdown may bring uncertainty [41][46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Changes**: - **Overseas**: There are both increases and decreases in overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some projects are in the process of being put into production, while some factories have reduced production due to accidents or power - supply issues. For example, the Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant reduced production by about 21 million tons, and the Mozambique plant may reduce production by 37 million tons in March 2026 [51][52] - **Domestic**: As of late October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4523.2 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4441.4 million tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is ongoing. In September, the average full cost of electrolytic aluminum was 15977 yuan/ton. In September, the import of aluminum ingots was 24.68 million tons, and the export was 2.9 million tons [61][62][63] - **Inventory and Consumption**: - **Domestic**: At the end of October, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was 91.13 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will decline in November - December, and low inventory will support prices. The export profit of aluminum products is increasing, and consumption is expected to be resilient [66] - **Overseas**: The LME inventory is stable, and the spot is mostly at a premium. The global shortage of aluminum is more prominent overseas, and low inventory supports LME aluminum prices [69] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption**: - **New Energy Demand**: The production of photovoltaic modules is still relatively low year - on - year, with limited impact on aluminum demand. The use of aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year - on - year, and the use of aluminum in the power sector is also growing. The State Grid's investment in 2025 will exceed 650 billion yuan, and the sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods has increased [73][76][79] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real - estate industry is still weak, and the production of household appliances in November is expected to decline year - on - year. In September, the export of aluminum products was 87.01 million tons, and the impact of tariffs on international trade is gradually weakening [81][91][94] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: Low prices are pressuring high - cost capacity. In November, there are expectations of production cuts. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. The cost in November can refer to that in September - October [99] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macro - and micro - factors will drive the rise of aluminum prices. Overseas supply shortages will support prices, and domestic demand is resilient. In November, the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow, and the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [103]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic ore supply has tightened, and the spot price of alumina has risen slightly. The alumina market is currently in a state of slight oversupply, and short - term price trends are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [1][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, Shandong, and Guizhou, the prices of different - grade bauxite were stable. In Shanxi, inspections continued, and in Henan, rainfall limited mining, leading to supply shortages and firm prices. In Guangxi, illegal mining inspections were strengthened. Imported bauxite long - term agreement prices were between $74 - 75 per dry ton, and shipments might decrease in the second half of the third quarter. Newly - arrived ore was 4.436 million tons, with 3.555 million tons from Guinea and 0.594 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $18.5 per ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose slightly last week. In the domestic market, the ALD northern comprehensive price and the domestic weighted index increased. The import port price remained flat. Market transactions were average. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia. The domestic alumina production capacity increased slightly, with a construction capacity of 112.92 million tons, an operating capacity of 93.55 million tons (up 400,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 82.9% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Guizhou Huangguoshu Aluminum increased production by 20,000 tons to 100,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.103 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with an electrolytic aluminum operating capacity of 29.571 million tons [13] - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises' alumina inventory increased, with different inventory trends among various entities. Alumina enterprises' inventory was at a low level, port inventory fluctuated significantly, and delivery inventory decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: There were 21,314 tons of registered alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, a decrease of 9,005 tons from last week. The domestic futures price oscillated last week. The bauxite price in Guinea was stable in the third quarter, and the domestic alumina supply was slightly in surplus, suppressing the price. It is recommended to view alumina from an oscillatory perspective in the short term [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain during the Week - On July 5, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at a FOB price of $363 per ton from Gladstone Port for shipping in early August [16] - On July 4, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guangxi at an ex - factory price of 3,250 yuan per ton. Supply in the local market was tight due to production cuts and maintenance [16] - On July 2, 300 tons of alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan per ton, purchased by a trader for delivery to a northwest aluminum plant [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data for the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: This section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [31][33][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina in storage/on the platform/in transit, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [41][44][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows some resilience with the May unemployment rate in line with expectations and non - farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations, leading to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts and a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The ongoing US - Japan trade negotiations have no results, and internal US uncertainties are increasing, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy [6]. - Overseas tariff policies and US internal instability factors are increasing, which will likely affect global assets. In the short term, the market will return to fundamentals. Domestically, demand is entering the off - season, putting upward pressure on prices in the medium term. However, the social inventory is decreasing and at a low level, and spot merchants are eager to support prices, with high premiums providing strong support for the market. It is expected that the main 07 contract will fluctuate within the range of 19,600 - 20,200 yuan/ton, with a higher probability of short - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 20,000, and industrial players are advised to purchase as needed [8]. Alumina - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May, the in - production capacity increased by 2.1 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly. The domestic arrival volume of ore remained normal, and the departure volume from Guinea was also normal [9]. - In April 2025, China's alumina net exports were 249,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 13 consecutive months of net exports. Import shifted to a small profit [9]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Profit - The current smelting cost of alumina is 3,046 yuan per ton, with a profit of 269 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The latest price of caustic soda is 3,730 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton [9]. Suggestion - The impact of Guinea's ore - end policy on sentiment has eased, and the market has fallen after a surge. It is recommended to take a long - position in the 09 contract on dips and a short - position in the 07 contract on rallies. The position volume of the variety is 450,000 lots, with 320,000 lots in the 09 contract. Although the funds have flowed out compared to the previous week, the volume is still relatively high, and large fluctuations are expected [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% and a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.22%, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In April, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import in April was 236,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,600 tons and a month - on - month increase of 23,700 tons [54][56]. - In April, China's scrap aluminum imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The cumulative scrap aluminum imports from January to April were 697,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [63]. Demand - In April 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The cumulative output this year was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [65]. - In April 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The cumulative output this year was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [68]. Cost - The domestic alumina spot price declined slightly from the high level and remained volatile at a high level, while the overseas spot price was stable in the short term [71]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,675 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton, about 0.26% [74]. - The price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,710 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 230 yuan/ton, about 2.3%. The price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton, about 3.15% [77]. Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is 17,021 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The overall profit is 3,279 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/ton [80]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum is 1,132 yuan/ton, a weekly slight narrowing of 5 yuan/ton [83]. Inventory - As of June 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 503,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 6,000 tons and a decrease of 17,000 tons within the week. The inventory is at a historically low level, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [86]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China is in the range of 20,100 - 20,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and as downstream demand enters the off - season, the upward pressure on prices increases, and the spot premium decreases slightly. However, due to the low social inventory, spot merchants still have the will to support prices [92].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing mixed trends, with aluminum oxide futures showing a notable increase while black building materials continue to decline. The recent three consecutive days of gains in aluminum oxide futures have drawn significant attention, reflecting market concerns over production cuts and future ore supply [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After the May Day holiday, many aluminum oxide-related enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to production disruptions. For instance, a 1 million ton capacity line in Shanxi has halted due to ore supply issues, and another 800,000 ton capacity line in Guangxi will be under maintenance for 15 days [2]. - The aluminum oxide futures market is transitioning to the 2509 contract, with traders focusing on the anticipated production cuts during the rainy season in Guinea [2]. - Despite the rise in futures prices, domestic aluminum oxide spot prices have remained relatively stable, with an average price of 2895.86 yuan/ton as of May 8, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The aluminum oxide industry has seen its production capacity increase from 82.45 million tons at the beginning of the year to over 90 million tons, outpacing demand growth and contributing to price declines [3]. - Social inventory of aluminum oxide has increased from 3.7 million tons at the start of the year to 4 million tons by late April, but has recently decreased to 3.946 million tons due to production cuts [5]. - The dependency on imported bauxite is high, with approximately 75% of China's bauxite sourced from abroad, primarily Guinea [6]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The price of aluminum oxide is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with a significant surplus expected in the market due to rapid capacity expansion [9]. - The cash cost of aluminum oxide production is a critical indicator, with current costs around 2669 yuan/ton, which may serve as a short-term price support level [11]. - Future price movements are anticipated to face resistance around the 3000-3100 yuan mark, with potential downward pressure if bauxite prices continue to decline [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term due to new production pressure, despite the rebound driven by supply disruptions in Guinea and the overseas price increase. The spot price has stopped falling in the short - term but is unlikely to rebound significantly. The supply of bauxite is becoming more abundant, and its price may continue to face downward pressure. The alumina supply is in a long - term surplus, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum remains stable. The export window remains closed, and short - term trading is recommended to be on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2505 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - As of 3 p.m. on April 18, the alumina index oscillated narrowly, falling 0.92% to 2800 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 21,000 lots to 410,000 lots. The basis widened, with the Shandong spot price at a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the main contract. Most regional spot prices stopped falling, except for slight drops in Guizhou and Shandong. The social inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 400.1 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4 tons to 28.77 tons. The bauxite supply is loosening, and its price may decline. The alumina production decreased by 3.7 tons to 164.4 tons this week due to smelter maintenance. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and operating rate increased in March [10][11]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices 3.2.1 Spot Price - Most regional alumina spot prices stopped falling this week, with Guizhou and Shandong prices dropping 15 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. Short - term stability is due to smelter maintenance and overseas price rebound, but significant rebounds are unlikely [19]. 3.2.2 Futures Price and Basis - As of April 18, the alumina index oscillated narrowly, falling 0.92% to 2800 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 21,000 lots. The Shandong spot price had a 66 - yuan/ton premium over the main contract, and the basis widened. The month - spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was - 28 yuan/ton and remained oscillating [22]. 3.2.3 Bauxite Price - This week, Guizhou bauxite prices dropped from 600 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, and Shanxi prices from 580 yuan/ton to 530 yuan/ton. Guinea CIF decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 88 dollars/ton, while Australia CIF remained at 86 dollars/ton. The bauxite supply is becoming more abundant [25]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Bauxite Production and Import - In March 2025, China's bauxite production was 523 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.62%. In February 2025, imports were 1441 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.15%. From Guinea, imports in February were 1073 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.05%. From Australia, imports in February were 236 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.52% [28][30][33]. 3.3.2 Bauxite Port and Inventory Data - The global bauxite floating inventory decreased by 164 tons to 1481 tons this week, while China's port inventory increased by 153 tons to 2211 tons. In March, the total bauxite inventory increased by 4 tons to 4111 tons, with Shanxi's inventory decreasing by 19 tons and Henan's increasing by 27 tons [38][41]. 3.3.3 Alumina Production and Import - Export - In March 2025, China's alumina production was 744.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. The operating capacity in March was 8860 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.99%. This week's production was 164.4 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons from last week. In February 2025, the net alumina export was 16.56 tons. As of April 18, the Australian FOB price rebounded by 19 dollars/ton to 348 dollars/ton, and the export loss was - 421 yuan/ton. In March 2025, overseas alumina production was 524.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [43][46][48]. 3.4 Demand Side - In March 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 373 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The operating capacity was 4379 tons, an increase of 13 tons from last month, and the operating rate increased by 0.27% to 96.23% [56][59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina supply in 2025 shows an increasing trend in production and capacity utilization. The demand from electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the total demand also shows a slow upward trend. The supply - demand gap is widening, with a surplus of 17 tons in January, 166 tons in February, 259 tons in March, and 364 tons in April [61]. 3.6 Inventory - The alumina social inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 400.1 tons this week, with decreases in electrolytic aluminum plants and in - transit inventory, no change in alumina plants, and an increase in port inventory. The SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4 tons to 28.77 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 31.0 tons [66][68].