1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand of the alumina market is in a delicate balance, with the AO/AL capacity ratio falling to the 2.0 range. In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, but the market is highly focused on a large northern factory, and the futures price will be disturbed by non - standard news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider lightly laying out long positions at low levels as a band strategy, paying attention to taking profits in time. - Under the assumption of no large - scale concentrated resumption of production in the industry in March, the spot price is expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly. However, the long - term oversupply situation in the alumina industry remains unchanged. The short - term price may be supported by the tightening of spot liquidity, but the space to boost prices through large - scale production cuts is increasingly limited. The long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies, while short - term opportunities to lay out long positions at low prices can be noted [4][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The first batch of industry production cuts started from integrated factories. The inventory of a large northern factory is sufficient, and pre - holiday trader pick - up is normal, but the resumption time of specific production lines is yet to be determined. Some alumina plant startups have been postponed, with the earliest expected start from late February to early March [4]. - In the long - term, all new startups in Guangxi in the first quarter have been postponed. For example, Fangchenggang Zhongsilu is expected to start production at the end of February and the beginning of March, and Long'an Hetai New Materials' startup has been postponed. In the short - term, enterprises are gradually resuming maintenance, and there is still an expectation of capacity recovery [4][6]. - As of last Friday, the weekly alumina output was 1.814 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons or 0.87%. The operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons mainly due to the maintenance of a large factory [12][13]. Demand Side - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, Liaoning Xiangyu Aluminum Industry (formerly Zhongwang) is expected to resume about 300,000 tons of idle capacity in mid - March and has started purchasing alumina raw materials. In the non - aluminum sector, due to environmental protection and other reasons for seasonal production cuts, alumina procurement has basically been completed [4]. Import and Export - Due to the stalemate in domestic spot prices, it is expected that China's alumina will remain in a net - import state in January. Since October, the domestic alumina market has returned to a net - import situation. The current import profit and loss is negative, at - 55.56 yuan/ton [4][41]. Inventory - As of last Thursday, the total alumina inventory (the sum of in - factory, in - transit, raw material, and port inventories) was 5.193 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79,000 tons. Alumina in - factory inventory increased by 23,000 tons week - on - week, accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks, and electrolytic aluminum plant raw material inventory increased by 13,000 tons week - on - week, accumulating for 23 consecutive weeks. All three types of inventories are at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [35]. Spot - Recently, spot prices have been firm and even increased slightly. The reasons are that as the Spring Festival approaches, traders have gradually taken holidays, reducing the number of participants in market tenders, and freight rates have risen. Although the spot is still in a surplus state, short - term liquidity tightening has led to a stalemate in prices [4]. Monthly Balance Sheet - **Scenario 1**: If new capacities are put into production as planned in March, industry production cuts are not restored until April, and a northern factory shuts down one production line, the fundamentals in March are relatively strong. - **Scenario 2**: If new capacities are put into production as planned in March, industry production cuts are not restored until April, and a northern factory resumes capacity operation, industry production cuts may still expand. Overall, under the assumption of no large - scale concentrated resumption of production in March, the spot price is expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly [15][16]. Domestic and Overseas Spot - Domestic alumina spot transactions have stabilized before the Spring Festival due to the decreased participation of traders. The firm domestic price has attracted overseas spot for delivery. For example, some overseas alumina has been shipped to China for delivery [19][20]. Ore Price and Cost - As of this Monday, the average CIF price of Guinea bauxite was $60.5/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.5/ton, and the average CIF price of Australian imported ore was $59.5/ton, also a week - on - week decrease of $0.5/ton. Currently, the price negotiation of Guinea bauxite has dropped below $62/ton, and there is still room for the price to fall in the short term [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [1][5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's ore situation continues to improve, and there is no significant reduction in alumina supply for the time being. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, with prices under downward pressure, but the determination of alumina enterprises to cut production is not strong. Considering the current supply - demand situation, there is theoretical downward space for alumina prices, but excessive speculation is not advisable. Short positions can be moderately closed for profit, and it is not yet time to enter long positions [14][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices fell last week. The tax - included prices of 58/5 bauxite in Shanxi and Henan were 698 yuan/ton and 620 yuan/ton respectively, while the tax - included arrival price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou remained at 590 yuan/ton. Next month, domestic ore prices are expected to continue to decline. Imported ore prices dropped slightly due to the decline in freight and expected supply increase. The mainstream price of Guinea ore was CIF 70.5 - 71 US dollars/ton. Mines in Guinea's AXIS mining area are gradually resuming production. Newly arrived ore during the period was 425.1 million tons, including 269.9 million tons from Guinea and 149.1 million tons from Australia [2][12] - **Alumina**: Last week, the spot price of alumina decreased. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2700 - 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The import window was closed. The operating capacity of alumina was basically stable, with no active and long - term production cuts. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.6% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum's new capacity started power - on in November, and the Inner Mongolia Tongliao project is planned to be put into production on December 20. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 40,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, the Indonesian electrolytic aluminum plant increased its operating capacity, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 65,000 tons week - on - week [14] - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the national alumina inventory was 4.68 million tons, an increase of 95,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in social inventory was mainly at the electrolytic aluminum end, and port inventory was at a high level [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 179,799 tons, a decrease of 75,088 tons from the previous week [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - In November 2025, China imported 232,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 22.7% and a year - on - year increase of 134%. Exports were 168,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. The net import was 64,000 tons, compared with a net export of 92,000 tons in the same period last year [16] - The theoretical import window for new alumina orders was closed. The Australian alumina quotation was about 309 US dollars/ton, and the cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2748 yuan/ton [16] - On December 17, some expired alumina warehouse receipts were passively cancelled, and some low - price Xinjiang warehouse receipts were actively cancelled. Due to snowfall in the northwest, some aluminum plants started to pick up goods from the delivery warehouse, and further cancellations are expected [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost**: This part includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventory, shipping volume, and prices of raw materials such as caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of alumina [33][37][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This section presents data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, and the total social inventory, as well as warehouse receipts and positions on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [44][48][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's bauxite prices remain stable, and alumina supply continues to recover. The alumina market is in an oversupply stage. Although there is theoretical downward space for prices, excessive speculation is not advisable. A bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [1][4][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi's 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan's at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou's 60/6 bauxite at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines resumed production, but the increase was limited. During the heating season, production and environmental supervision in northern mines tightened, with few mines over - producing. Domestic ore supply is difficult to improve in the short term, and the actual market circulation of ore is extremely limited. Guinea's bauxite is priced at 70 - 71 dollars/dry ton. After the rainy season, its shipping volume is recovering. 398.7 million tons of new ore arrived, including 301.2 million tons from Guinea and 97.5 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China is 24.5 dollars/ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: Last week, alumina spot prices declined slightly. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2831.9 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from last week. Imported alumina port quotes were 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Aluminum plants have high inventories and sufficient long - term orders, resulting in limited spot transactions. In terms of imports, 30,000 tons of alumina from East Australia were sold at FOB 311.50 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 2760 yuan/ton, and the import window opened. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2817 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 45 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the operating capacity, which had decreased due to maintenance, environmental protection, and other factors, began to rise again after the end of maintenance. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.7 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 84.4% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum's new production capacity started power - on on November 21. The first stage plans to put into operation 60 electrolytic cells, equivalent to about 66,000 tons of production capacity, and 100,000 tons are planned to be launched this year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.243 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, Indonesia's KAI electrolytic aluminum plant was officially put into production in late November, planning to start 2 electrolytic cells per day, with an annualized operating capacity of about 8000 tons. India's Vedanta's Balco electrolytic aluminum plant expansion project is slowly being put into production, with an operating capacity of about 610,000 tons and an additional 50,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 29.596 million tons, an increase of 38,000 tons week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (November 27), the national alumina inventory was 4.415 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from last week. Remote electrolytic aluminum enterprises continue to absorb the current oversupply pressure by slightly increasing alumina inventories. In the Xinjiang region, some industrial chain groups' alumina inventories are increasing steadily. In the western region, some industrial chain and single - entity electrolytic aluminum enterprises are still in the process of increasing inventories through hedging and tax - included purchases. Although the winter storage actions of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are relatively small, the intention for winter storage is concentrated in the industry, especially in remote aluminum plants. Quantitatively, the inventories of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are steadily increasing. Alumina enterprises' inventories are relatively low, while port inventories of imported alumina are relatively high [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 258,413 tons, an increase of 7,503 tons from last week. Last week, the alumina futures price continued to be weak. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan are in a loss situation, but their determination to cut production is still weak, and the industry remains oversupplied, with inventories continuing to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, there is theoretical downward space for alumina prices, but excessive speculation is not advisable. Since the industry is still in an oversupply stage, a bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina**: As of Friday (November 28), the Australian alumina quotation was about 313.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton from November 21. According to real - time data, the cost of reaching northern Chinese ports is about 2796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan. Affected by the decline in the Australian FOB price, the northern theoretical import profit rose to 52 yuan/ton [16] - **End of 9 - Month Net Export of Chinese Alumina**: In October 2025, China's alumina imports were 189,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 215% and a year - on - year surge of 2923%; alumina exports were 176,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The net import of alumina in October was 13,000 tons, ending the 9 - month continuous net export pattern in 2025 [16] - **Alumina Enterprises in Dilemma**: ALD believes that after mid - December, the market supply pressure is expected to be more intense. Although strong price fluctuations are not expected for the time being, the inventory changes of alumina enterprises and electrolytic aluminum enterprises will be the main dynamic reference variables for later judgment [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report provides charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventories, port shipping volumes of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventories of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][25][27][29] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes charts on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][34][35][40] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents charts on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventories, alumina plants' alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventories, alumina port inventories, domestic total social alumina inventories, the amount and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of alumina holding volume to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the rainy season, shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to decline oscillating. The overcapacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthening. The cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on November 28, the alumina index rose 0.07% to 2739 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 35,000 lots to 608,000 lots. The alumina futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation this week. The Shandong spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the December contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 112 yuan/ton, and the weakness of the spot led to the relative weakness of the near - month contracts [11][24] - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [11][21] - **Inventory**: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 59,000 tons to 4.942 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 59,000 tons, 52,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 26,000 tons, and increased by 1,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 7,500 tons to 258,400 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 260,900 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from last week. The market of tradable spot was loose, and the registration volume of warehouse receipts further rebounded [11][70][72] - **Summary**: After the rainy season, shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to decline oscillating. The overcapacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthening. The cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [14] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [21] - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on November 28, the alumina index rose 0.07% to 2739 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 35,000 lots to 608,000 lots. The alumina futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation this week. The Shandong spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the December contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 112 yuan/ton, and the weakness of the spot led to the relative weakness of the near - month contracts [24] - **Bauxite Price**: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ores, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 71 dollars/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at 68 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume increased. The profit contraction led to an increase in the price - pressing意愿 of alumina enterprises. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline oscillating [27] 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The total production in the first ten months of 2025 was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production decreased month by month [31] - **Bauxite Import**: In October 2025, bauxite imports were 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The total imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [33] - **Bauxite Import by Country**: In October 2025, China imported 900,000 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, the imports declined, and it is expected to gradually recover. In October 2025, China imported 3.82 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 31.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [35][37] - **Bauxite Inventory**: In October, China's bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons, with a total inventory of 52.5 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 280,000 tons in October, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 360,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40] - **Alumina Production**: In October 2025, alumina production was 7.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The cumulative production in the first ten months of 2025 was 74.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03%. As of November 28, 2025, the weekly alumina production was 1.858 million tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons from last week [42][45] - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina factories was under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on November 28, Guangxi, with its relatively low local domestic ore price, had a current production profit of up to 150 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong were 10 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The cost of transporting imported ores from ports for inland alumina factories was about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the use of overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan had turned slightly loss - making [48] - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, the net import of alumina was 13,600 tons. The opening of the import window earlier drove the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 60,000 tons last month to 189,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 246,400 tons to 175,700 tons. The total net export in the first ten months of 2025 was 1.4375 million tons. As of November 28, the weekly FOB price in Australia decreased by 7 dollars/ton to 312 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 26 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price further declined, and the import window opened slightly [50][52] - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In October 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.84% and a month - on - month increase of 3.36%. The cumulative production in the first ten months of 2025 was 51.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.24% [54] 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. The total production in the first ten months of 2025 was 36.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [62] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated for November and December), showing data on alumina supply, demand, and net exports for each month [65] 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 59,000 tons to 4.942 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 59,000 tons, 52,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 26,000 tons, and increased by 1,000 tons respectively [70] - **SHFE Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 7,500 tons to 258,400 tons during the week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 260,900 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from last week. The market of tradable spot was loose, and the registration volume of warehouse receipts further rebounded [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina supply - side remains in a state of sporadic and normal short - term maintenance, and the large - scale production cuts that the market is concerned about have not been achieved. The Xinjiang region has new electrolytic aluminum production capacity about to be put into operation, but the increase in demand is limited in scale. The overall market supply and demand are still in excess, there is also downward pressure on the cost side of ore, and the fundamentals' negative factors remain unchanged, so alumina continues to be weak [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/21, the alumina futures (active) dropped from 2822 yuan/ton to 2713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price dropped from 2868 yuan/ton to 2858 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased from 78 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton, an increase of 86 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB remained at 320 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss changed from 16.21 yuan/ton to - 6.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.1 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 2744 tons, from 253654 tons to 250910 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in various regions and the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 3.84% last week, closing at 2713 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price in the spot market was reported at 2858 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. Affected by multiple factors such as supply restrictions of domestic bauxite and price - pressure transmission from downstream alumina enterprises, the price remained stagnant. There is an expected release of new production capacity for imported bauxite from Guinea, and the current port inventory in China is over 30 million tons, so there is some pressure on the imported ore price. On the supply side, the maintenance enterprises in Guangxi have resumed normal production this week, one roasting furnace in a Shandong factory is under maintenance, and one roasting furnace in a Hebei factory is still under maintenance. Overall, this week's alumina supply has increased slightly. As of November 20, China's alumina built - in production capacity was 114.80 million tons, the operating production capacity was 95.90 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54%. On the consumption side, the operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable. This week, electrolytic aluminum plants' purchases were still mainly for rigid demand and mostly in the form of bidding, the market activity was still low, and the change in alumina demand was limited. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2744 tons last Friday to 250,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [4] Market Outlook - Customs data shows that the single - month bauxite imports in October dropped to 13.77 million tons, the lowest in 2025, mainly affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Now that the rainy - season impact is over, there is an expected release of new production capacity for imported ore, and the subsequent imports are expected to be in sufficient supply. On the supply side, the previously - maintained alumina plants in Guangxi have resumed production, one alumina roasting production capacity in Shandong is under maintenance, and the overall alumina operating production capacity has basically remained stable with minor fluctuations. Last week, the operating production capacity remained at 95.90 million tons. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum industry conducts rigid - demand bidding purchases, and consumption is stable. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2744 tons during the week to 250,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the alumina supply - side remains in a state of sporadic and normal short - term maintenance, and the large - scale production cuts that the market is concerned about have not been achieved. The Xinjiang region has new electrolytic aluminum production capacity about to be put into operation, but the increase in demand is limited in scale. The overall market supply and demand are still in excess, there is also downward pressure on the cost side of ore, and the fundamentals' negative factors remain unchanged, so alumina continues to be weak [2][6] Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in October 2025, China imported 13.7661 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 13.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.02%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11%. In October 2025, China's alumina import and export situation showed significant changes: the import volume was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64%; the export volume reached 175,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.71%. Indonesia's mining holding company MIND ID reaffirmed its commitment to the integration of bauxite downstream and energy transition through its second - phase project of the smelter - grade alumina refinery (SGAR). The facility, owned by the state - owned aluminum company INALUM, will use domestic bauxite reserves to double the existing annual alumina production capacity from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [7] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the alumina futures price trend, alumina spot price, alumina spot premium, alumina cost - profit, domestic bauxite price, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, and alumina exchange inventory [9][14][15][16][18][21][23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply has little change after NIMBA Mining initiated the ship transfer procedure. The alumina price has a theoretical downward space, but over - speculation is not advisable. The industry is in an over - supply stage, and a bearish approach can be taken if there is a price rebound [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines are resuming production, but environmental controls in the north will reduce output. The supply of domestic ore is hard to improve in the short term. Guinea ore is priced at 71 - 72 dollars/dry ton, while downstream enterprises' purchase intention is at 69 - 70 dollars/ton. NIMBA Mining has initiated a 200,000 - ton ore ship transfer, and about 1.5 million tons of port inventory is to be exported. Some inland mines in Guinea will increase shipments in November. Newly - arrived ore was 3.845 million tons, including 2.793 million tons from Guinea and 1.052 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China is 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2837.5 yuan/ton, down 33.7 yuan/ton. The import port price was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged. Electrolytic aluminum plants are starting winter storage, and alumina enterprises are mainly fulfilling long - term contracts. The Australian alumina is priced at about 320 dollars/ton, and the cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2828 yuan/ton, with the northern theoretical import profit dropping to about - 26 yuan/ton. The domestic full - cost of alumina is 2819 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit is 89 yuan/ton. Some enterprises' roasting was suspended due to pollution warnings, while some increased production slightly. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with 96.85 million tons in operation, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate is 84.5% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianlong Mining stopped 27 electrolytic cells due to pollution warnings, affecting about 20,000 tons of production capacity. Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum plans to start 60 electrolytic cells on November 21, 2025, with a production capacity of about 66,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.233 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the operating capacity at 29.551 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the national alumina inventory was 4.218 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, the bagged inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the northern port inventory increased temporarily, and the inventory in other places also increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 253,654 tons, an increase of 16,487 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event Summaries in the Industry Chain - **Rise in Australian FOB Price and Decrease in Import Profit**: As of November 7, the Australian alumina price was about 320 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from October 31. The cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton. The domestic market declined slightly, and the northern theoretical import profit dropped to about - 26 yuan/ton. Due to overseas production cuts and upcoming Indonesian capacity, there is still pressure on overseas alumina prices [16] - **Profit and Loss of Alumina Enterprises and Production Expectations**: The alumina spot price has been falling for three months. Based on the October average price, about 28.95 million tons of the total 98.25 million tons of operating capacity of 39 alumina enterprises are in full - cost loss, accounting for 29.47%. The cash - cost loss capacity is 3.45 million tons, accounting for 3.51%. Losses are mainly in enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Guizhou [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by environmental controls, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to stop 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8. It had stopped 2 furnaces in late October due to pollution warnings and resumed on October 31 [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][23] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][38][41] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, total social inventory, port inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions are presented [44][47][49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are under pressure due to supply - demand surplus, with potential production cuts in November. If production cuts occur, prices may rebound; otherwise, they will remain under pressure. Overall, the price trend is to sell on rebounds next year [3][99] - The shortage of global electrolytic aluminum is more prominent overseas. Macro - and micro - factors will drive the upward trend of aluminum prices to continue. In November, domestic demand may support prices, and the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow [4][103] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Due to supply - demand surplus, prices are falling. The November spot long - term settlement price may approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity, leading to potential production cuts. If production cuts reduce the surplus, prices may rebound to around 3000 yuan/ton; otherwise, they will be under pressure. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global shortage is mainly overseas. With overseas production cuts and improving domestic demand, aluminum prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (alumina oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan, aluminum oscillating strongly between 21000 - 21800 yuan), arbitrage (long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum), and option trading (wait - and - see) [4] 2. Alumina Low - price Pressure on Cash Cost and November Supply - side Production Cut Expectations - **Raw Material End**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with stable prices but few transactions. Imported bauxite prices are theoretically under pressure, but spot transactions are scarce. The price of Guinea bauxite is around 72 - 73 dollars/dry ton. In September 2025, China imported 1588 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.5% [7][10][11] - **Alumina Price and Production**: As of late October, the national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, and the operating capacity was 9765 million tons. In October, the domestic alumina supply - demand surplus was 33 million tons (considering downstream inventory) or 17 million tons (based on social inventory). The average full cost of alumina in September was 2863 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 179 yuan/ton. In November, pay attention to production cuts due to high - cost capacity approaching cash cost and the impact of heavy - pollution weather [22][23][36] - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, China exported 24.6 million tons of alumina (a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 82.3%) and imported 6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 61.7%). The net export was 18.6 million tons [31] 3. Macro - and Micro - Factors Driving the Rise of Aluminum Prices - **Macro Factors**: In October, the overseas macro - market sentiment was first depressed and then improved. The expected further reaching of tariff agreements between the US and other countries and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation will support LME aluminum prices, but the US government shutdown may bring uncertainty [41][46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Changes**: - **Overseas**: There are both increases and decreases in overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some projects are in the process of being put into production, while some factories have reduced production due to accidents or power - supply issues. For example, the Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant reduced production by about 21 million tons, and the Mozambique plant may reduce production by 37 million tons in March 2026 [51][52] - **Domestic**: As of late October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4523.2 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4441.4 million tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is ongoing. In September, the average full cost of electrolytic aluminum was 15977 yuan/ton. In September, the import of aluminum ingots was 24.68 million tons, and the export was 2.9 million tons [61][62][63] - **Inventory and Consumption**: - **Domestic**: At the end of October, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was 91.13 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will decline in November - December, and low inventory will support prices. The export profit of aluminum products is increasing, and consumption is expected to be resilient [66] - **Overseas**: The LME inventory is stable, and the spot is mostly at a premium. The global shortage of aluminum is more prominent overseas, and low inventory supports LME aluminum prices [69] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption**: - **New Energy Demand**: The production of photovoltaic modules is still relatively low year - on - year, with limited impact on aluminum demand. The use of aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year - on - year, and the use of aluminum in the power sector is also growing. The State Grid's investment in 2025 will exceed 650 billion yuan, and the sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods has increased [73][76][79] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real - estate industry is still weak, and the production of household appliances in November is expected to decline year - on - year. In September, the export of aluminum products was 87.01 million tons, and the impact of tariffs on international trade is gradually weakening [81][91][94] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: Low prices are pressuring high - cost capacity. In November, there are expectations of production cuts. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. The cost in November can refer to that in September - October [99] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macro - and micro - factors will drive the rise of aluminum prices. Overseas supply shortages will support prices, and domestic demand is resilient. In November, the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow, and the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [103]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic ore supply has tightened, and the spot price of alumina has risen slightly. The alumina market is currently in a state of slight oversupply, and short - term price trends are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [1][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, Shandong, and Guizhou, the prices of different - grade bauxite were stable. In Shanxi, inspections continued, and in Henan, rainfall limited mining, leading to supply shortages and firm prices. In Guangxi, illegal mining inspections were strengthened. Imported bauxite long - term agreement prices were between $74 - 75 per dry ton, and shipments might decrease in the second half of the third quarter. Newly - arrived ore was 4.436 million tons, with 3.555 million tons from Guinea and 0.594 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $18.5 per ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose slightly last week. In the domestic market, the ALD northern comprehensive price and the domestic weighted index increased. The import port price remained flat. Market transactions were average. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia. The domestic alumina production capacity increased slightly, with a construction capacity of 112.92 million tons, an operating capacity of 93.55 million tons (up 400,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 82.9% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Guizhou Huangguoshu Aluminum increased production by 20,000 tons to 100,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.103 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with an electrolytic aluminum operating capacity of 29.571 million tons [13] - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises' alumina inventory increased, with different inventory trends among various entities. Alumina enterprises' inventory was at a low level, port inventory fluctuated significantly, and delivery inventory decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: There were 21,314 tons of registered alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, a decrease of 9,005 tons from last week. The domestic futures price oscillated last week. The bauxite price in Guinea was stable in the third quarter, and the domestic alumina supply was slightly in surplus, suppressing the price. It is recommended to view alumina from an oscillatory perspective in the short term [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain during the Week - On July 5, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at a FOB price of $363 per ton from Gladstone Port for shipping in early August [16] - On July 4, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guangxi at an ex - factory price of 3,250 yuan per ton. Supply in the local market was tight due to production cuts and maintenance [16] - On July 2, 300 tons of alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan per ton, purchased by a trader for delivery to a northwest aluminum plant [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data for the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: This section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [31][33][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina in storage/on the platform/in transit, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [41][44][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows some resilience with the May unemployment rate in line with expectations and non - farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations, leading to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts and a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The ongoing US - Japan trade negotiations have no results, and internal US uncertainties are increasing, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy [6]. - Overseas tariff policies and US internal instability factors are increasing, which will likely affect global assets. In the short term, the market will return to fundamentals. Domestically, demand is entering the off - season, putting upward pressure on prices in the medium term. However, the social inventory is decreasing and at a low level, and spot merchants are eager to support prices, with high premiums providing strong support for the market. It is expected that the main 07 contract will fluctuate within the range of 19,600 - 20,200 yuan/ton, with a higher probability of short - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 20,000, and industrial players are advised to purchase as needed [8]. Alumina - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May, the in - production capacity increased by 2.1 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly. The domestic arrival volume of ore remained normal, and the departure volume from Guinea was also normal [9]. - In April 2025, China's alumina net exports were 249,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 13 consecutive months of net exports. Import shifted to a small profit [9]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Profit - The current smelting cost of alumina is 3,046 yuan per ton, with a profit of 269 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The latest price of caustic soda is 3,730 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton [9]. Suggestion - The impact of Guinea's ore - end policy on sentiment has eased, and the market has fallen after a surge. It is recommended to take a long - position in the 09 contract on dips and a short - position in the 07 contract on rallies. The position volume of the variety is 450,000 lots, with 320,000 lots in the 09 contract. Although the funds have flowed out compared to the previous week, the volume is still relatively high, and large fluctuations are expected [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% and a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.22%, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In April, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import in April was 236,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,600 tons and a month - on - month increase of 23,700 tons [54][56]. - In April, China's scrap aluminum imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The cumulative scrap aluminum imports from January to April were 697,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [63]. Demand - In April 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The cumulative output this year was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [65]. - In April 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The cumulative output this year was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [68]. Cost - The domestic alumina spot price declined slightly from the high level and remained volatile at a high level, while the overseas spot price was stable in the short term [71]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,675 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton, about 0.26% [74]. - The price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,710 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 230 yuan/ton, about 2.3%. The price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton, about 3.15% [77]. Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is 17,021 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The overall profit is 3,279 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/ton [80]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum is 1,132 yuan/ton, a weekly slight narrowing of 5 yuan/ton [83]. Inventory - As of June 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 503,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 6,000 tons and a decrease of 17,000 tons within the week. The inventory is at a historically low level, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [86]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China is in the range of 20,100 - 20,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and as downstream demand enters the off - season, the upward pressure on prices increases, and the spot premium decreases slightly. However, due to the low social inventory, spot merchants still have the will to support prices [92].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing mixed trends, with aluminum oxide futures showing a notable increase while black building materials continue to decline. The recent three consecutive days of gains in aluminum oxide futures have drawn significant attention, reflecting market concerns over production cuts and future ore supply [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After the May Day holiday, many aluminum oxide-related enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to production disruptions. For instance, a 1 million ton capacity line in Shanxi has halted due to ore supply issues, and another 800,000 ton capacity line in Guangxi will be under maintenance for 15 days [2]. - The aluminum oxide futures market is transitioning to the 2509 contract, with traders focusing on the anticipated production cuts during the rainy season in Guinea [2]. - Despite the rise in futures prices, domestic aluminum oxide spot prices have remained relatively stable, with an average price of 2895.86 yuan/ton as of May 8, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The aluminum oxide industry has seen its production capacity increase from 82.45 million tons at the beginning of the year to over 90 million tons, outpacing demand growth and contributing to price declines [3]. - Social inventory of aluminum oxide has increased from 3.7 million tons at the start of the year to 4 million tons by late April, but has recently decreased to 3.946 million tons due to production cuts [5]. - The dependency on imported bauxite is high, with approximately 75% of China's bauxite sourced from abroad, primarily Guinea [6]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The price of aluminum oxide is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with a significant surplus expected in the market due to rapid capacity expansion [9]. - The cash cost of aluminum oxide production is a critical indicator, with current costs around 2669 yuan/ton, which may serve as a short-term price support level [11]. - Future price movements are anticipated to face resistance around the 3000-3100 yuan mark, with potential downward pressure if bauxite prices continue to decline [12].