Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign bauxite ores are expected to support the ore price, but the over - capacity situation of alumina remains difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Guinea's ore policies [12]. - Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on August 16, the alumina index rose 0.41% to 3195 yuan/ton this week, with open interest increasing by 18,000 lots to 389,000 lots. Affected by news of domestic bauxite in Shanxi and Guinea's bauxite, the price soared at the beginning of the week but then gradually declined due to the over - supply fundamentals. The Shandong spot price was 3205 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 7 yuan/ton [11][25]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions changed little. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 55,000 tons to 4.199 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 47,000 tons, 20,000 tons, decreased by 16,000 tons, and increased by 4,000 tons respectively. The warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 39,600 tons to 65,800 tons, and the inventory in delivery warehouses was 88,400 tons, an increase of 290 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly this week as the supply of spot goods became looser [11][70][72]. - **Others**: Domestic bauxite production has declined recently due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain firm. The shipment of Guinea's bauxite has declined due to the rainy season and previous bans, which is expected to lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ores. The port inventory will experience phased destocking, and the ore price still has short - term support. This week, the domestic alumina production was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week but still at a high level. The FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 7 US dollars/ton to 367 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 25 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching to open. In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.193 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions changed little this week. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on August 16, the alumina index rose 0.41% to 3195 yuan/ton this week, with open interest increasing by 18,000 lots to 389,000 lots. Affected by news of domestic bauxite in Shanxi and Guinea's bauxite, the price soared at the beginning of the week but then gradually declined due to the over - supply fundamentals. The Shandong spot price was 3205 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 7 yuan/ton [25]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea's bauxite remained at 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 US dollars/ton. The shipment of Guinea's bauxite has declined recently, which is expected to lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ores, and the port inventory is expected to experience phased destocking. The ore price still has medium - term support [28]. 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In July 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.64%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.75% [32]. - **Bauxite Import**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The total import in the first six months of 2025 was 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68%. Among them, in June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative import in the first six months of 2025 was 79.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recently, the shipment volume from Guinea has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline gradually after June due to mining restrictions in the AXIS mining area and the rainy season, but the annual ore supply still remains in surplus. In June 2025, China imported 3.02 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 1.48% and a month - on - month increase of 1.92%. The cumulative import in the first six months of 2025 was 16.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [34][36][38]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In July 2025, China's bauxite inventory increased by 7.98 million tons to 53.46 million tons. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 1.03 million tons, and that in Henan increased by 420,000 tons [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In July 2025, China's alumina production was 7.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.43%. The cumulative production in the first seven months of 2025 was 51.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.99%. In July 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 93.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. This week, the domestic alumina production was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week but still at a high level [43][44][45]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and the profit of alumina factories has improved. According to the spot price of alumina on August 15, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. The profits of using Australian and Guinea's ores in Shandong are 377 yuan/ton and 425 yuan/ton respectively. The profits of using Guinea's ores in Shanxi and Henan are 174 yuan/ton and 227 yuan/ton respectively [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In June 2025, the net export of alumina was 69,700 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 67,500 tons last month to 101,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 207,800 tons to 171,000 tons. The total net export in the first six months of 2025 was 1.075 million tons. The import window opened slightly in June, and the increase in import volume decreased. It is expected that a small - scale net export will become the norm. As of August 15, the weekly FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 7 US dollars/ton to 367 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 25 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching to open [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In July 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.46% and a month - on - month increase of 4.56%. The cumulative production in the first seven months of 2025 was 35.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.05% [54]. 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 25.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.193 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated for some months), showing the alumina supply - demand difference, total demand, total supply, net export, export volume, import volume, consumption of alumina by electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity for each month [65]. 6. Inventory - The total social inventory of alumina increased by 55,000 tons to 4.199 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 47,000 tons, 20,000 tons, decreased by 16,000 tons, and increased by 4,000 tons respectively [70]. - The alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 39,600 tons to 65,800 tons this week, and the inventory in delivery warehouses was 88,400 tons, an increase of 290 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly this week as the supply of spot goods became looser [72].