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氧化铝周报:矿价短期支撑较强,高库存限制上方空间-20250816
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-16 15:02
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign bauxite ores are expected to support the ore price, but the over - capacity situation of alumina remains difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Guinea's ore policies [12]. - Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on August 16, the alumina index rose 0.41% to 3195 yuan/ton this week, with open interest increasing by 18,000 lots to 389,000 lots. Affected by news of domestic bauxite in Shanxi and Guinea's bauxite, the price soared at the beginning of the week but then gradually declined due to the over - supply fundamentals. The Shandong spot price was 3205 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 7 yuan/ton [11][25]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions changed little. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 55,000 tons to 4.199 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 47,000 tons, 20,000 tons, decreased by 16,000 tons, and increased by 4,000 tons respectively. The warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 39,600 tons to 65,800 tons, and the inventory in delivery warehouses was 88,400 tons, an increase of 290 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly this week as the supply of spot goods became looser [11][70][72]. - **Others**: Domestic bauxite production has declined recently due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain firm. The shipment of Guinea's bauxite has declined due to the rainy season and previous bans, which is expected to lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ores. The port inventory will experience phased destocking, and the ore price still has short - term support. This week, the domestic alumina production was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week but still at a high level. The FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 7 US dollars/ton to 367 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 25 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching to open. In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.193 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions changed little this week. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on August 16, the alumina index rose 0.41% to 3195 yuan/ton this week, with open interest increasing by 18,000 lots to 389,000 lots. Affected by news of domestic bauxite in Shanxi and Guinea's bauxite, the price soared at the beginning of the week but then gradually declined due to the over - supply fundamentals. The Shandong spot price was 3205 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 7 yuan/ton [25]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea's bauxite remained at 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 US dollars/ton. The shipment of Guinea's bauxite has declined recently, which is expected to lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ores, and the port inventory is expected to experience phased destocking. The ore price still has medium - term support [28]. 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In July 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.64%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.75% [32]. - **Bauxite Import**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The total import in the first six months of 2025 was 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68%. Among them, in June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative import in the first six months of 2025 was 79.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recently, the shipment volume from Guinea has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline gradually after June due to mining restrictions in the AXIS mining area and the rainy season, but the annual ore supply still remains in surplus. In June 2025, China imported 3.02 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 1.48% and a month - on - month increase of 1.92%. The cumulative import in the first six months of 2025 was 16.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [34][36][38]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In July 2025, China's bauxite inventory increased by 7.98 million tons to 53.46 million tons. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 1.03 million tons, and that in Henan increased by 420,000 tons [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In July 2025, China's alumina production was 7.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.43%. The cumulative production in the first seven months of 2025 was 51.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.99%. In July 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 93.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. This week, the domestic alumina production was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week but still at a high level [43][44][45]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and the profit of alumina factories has improved. According to the spot price of alumina on August 15, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. The profits of using Australian and Guinea's ores in Shandong are 377 yuan/ton and 425 yuan/ton respectively. The profits of using Guinea's ores in Shanxi and Henan are 174 yuan/ton and 227 yuan/ton respectively [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In June 2025, the net export of alumina was 69,700 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 67,500 tons last month to 101,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 207,800 tons to 171,000 tons. The total net export in the first six months of 2025 was 1.075 million tons. The import window opened slightly in June, and the increase in import volume decreased. It is expected that a small - scale net export will become the norm. As of August 15, the weekly FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 7 US dollars/ton to 367 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 25 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching to open [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In July 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.46% and a month - on - month increase of 4.56%. The cumulative production in the first seven months of 2025 was 35.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.05% [54]. 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 25.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.193 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated for some months), showing the alumina supply - demand difference, total demand, total supply, net export, export volume, import volume, consumption of alumina by electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity for each month [65]. 6. Inventory - The total social inventory of alumina increased by 55,000 tons to 4.199 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 47,000 tons, 20,000 tons, decreased by 16,000 tons, and increased by 4,000 tons respectively [70]. - The alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 39,600 tons to 65,800 tons this week, and the inventory in delivery warehouses was 88,400 tons, an increase of 290 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly this week as the supply of spot goods became looser [72].
情绪退潮叠加基本面压力,氧化铝期价冲高回落
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-15 02:53
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in alumina futures prices was driven by news from Shanxi Province regarding adjustments in mining rights, but the market has since cooled down, leading to a decline in prices as speculative sentiment wanes [1][2]. Supply Side - Shanxi's decision aims to enhance the protection of strategic mineral resources, including bauxite, by centralizing mining rights management [1]. - China's bauxite supply has been decreasing annually due to reduced mineral resources and stricter mining controls, leading to increased imports by local alumina companies to maintain production [1][2]. - Recent elections in Guinea have led to a relaxation of aluminum ore export policies, which is expected to increase overseas ore supply [2]. - Domestic alumina production capacity is growing, but there is a regional imbalance in output, with higher production in the north compared to the south [2][3]. - As of August 7, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.4 million tons, resulting in an operating rate of 82.23% [2]. Demand Side - The demand for alumina is expected to weaken as the replenishment of raw materials and inventory reduction slows down, coupled with limited growth in demand for casting aluminum alloys [2][3]. - Inventory levels for alumina are rising, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina delivery warehouse inventory increasing from under 5,000 tons to around 40,000 tons recently [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the fundamentals for alumina are under pressure, leading to weak price performance [3]. - The increase in registered warehouse receipts for alumina in August may alleviate previous tightness in the market, but bearish sentiment persists due to expectations of weak future prices [3][4]. - Despite the bearish outlook, factors such as the Shanxi mining rights news and stable overseas ore prices may limit the downside for alumina futures in the short term [3][4]. - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, fluctuating around cost levels, influenced by seasonal demand and potential supply adjustments [4].
情绪退潮叠加基本面压力 氧化铝期价冲高回落
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-15 00:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent fluctuations in alumina futures prices are primarily driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental supply and demand changes, following regulatory adjustments in Shanxi province [2][4] - Shanxi province has tightened the management of certain mineral resources, including bauxite, which may impact domestic supply, but analysts believe the actual effect on alumina production will be limited as companies can increase imports to meet demand [2][3] - The alumina market is experiencing regional supply-demand mismatches, with production capacity increasing in some areas while others face shortages, leading to a complex market dynamic [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the recent increase in alumina production capacity in China has not translated into a proportional rise in output, with inventory levels rising significantly, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [3][5] - The outlook for alumina futures is cautious, with expectations of price corrections due to weakening fundamental support, although short-term factors may limit downside risks [4][5] - Long-term projections suggest that alumina capacity may face excess pressure, shifting the supply-demand balance towards a more relaxed state, which could suppress price increases [5]
累库趋势难改,期价维持弱势震荡
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 14:13
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of supply - side contraction policies for alumina still needs observation. Given the low proportion of backward capacity and new production coming online this year, the over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. With the ebb of short - term commodity buying sentiment and the alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to warrant registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of August 8, the alumina index had risen 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. In mid - and early July, the expectation of supply - side contraction policies, a strong commodity buying atmosphere, and low warrant registration volumes drove the futures price up. As sentiment faded and the spot market loosened, the price dropped due to the oversupply situation [12][23]. - **Spot Price**: In July, the "anti - involution" policy expectation led to a sharp increase in alumina spot prices. As of August 8, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 3325 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, 3225 yuan/ton, 3215 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton, and 3520 yuan/ton respectively, up 155 yuan/ton, 145 yuan/ton, 135 yuan/ton, 125 yuan/ton, 165 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton from early July [12][20]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory had increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [12][75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply - side contraction policy implementation needs further observation. The over - capacity pattern of alumina may persist. With the ebb of short - term buying sentiment and the alleviation of spot shortages, short positions on rallies are recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Futures and Spot End - **Futures Price**: As of August 8, the alumina index rose 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. The early - July price increase was driven by policy expectations and low warrant registration, while the subsequent decline was due to the return to the fundamental logic of oversupply [23]. - **Basis**: The basis decreased significantly this month and then gradually recovered. As of August 8, the Shandong spot price was at a premium of 45 yuan/ton over the alumina main contract price [23]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts first rose and then fell. As of August 8, it was - 12 yuan/ton [23]. 3. Raw Material End - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite prices remained flat this month. As of August 8, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian bauxite was 69 US dollars/ton. Due to the impact of the rainy season and previous bans on Guinea's shipments, the arrival volume of imported ores is expected to decline, and ore prices are expected to be supported in the short term [29]. - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 519 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 3039 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. In June, bauxite imports were 1812 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 10340 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68% [31][33]. - **Guinea Bauxite Import**: In June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 7967 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recent low shipments from Guinea may lead to a decline in imports after June, but the annual supply remains in surplus [36]. - **Bauxite Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on shipping schedules and seasonal shipments from Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to tighten in July and experience significant inventory reduction in September and October. If the AXIS mining area does not resume production this year, China's bauxite import growth is expected to decline from 4000 tons to 2000 tons. However, due to the large surplus in the first five months and sufficient inventories in most alumina plants, the basic production of alumina enterprises is not expected to be significantly affected [37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory reached a new low of 1455 tons. China's bauxite port inventory was 2819 tons, and the inventory accumulation trend slowed down. With the expected decline in ore arrivals, port inventories are expected to decrease [40]. 4. Supply End - **Alumina Production**: In June 2025, alumina production was 733 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34% and a month - on - month increase of 3.14%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 4349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.01% [47]. - **Operating Capacity**: In June 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 9000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.36% and a month - on - month increase of 6.38%. The recovery of smelting profits led to the resumption of previously shut - down capacity [50]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, the total new alumina production capacity is expected to be 1430 tons. Some projects have been put into production and are gradually releasing output, while the fourth - quarter new production has uncertainties [51][52]. - **Smelting Profit**: Based on the August 8 spot price, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian and Guinea ores is 395 yuan/ton and 440 yuan/ton respectively. The profit in Shanxi and Henan using Guinea ore is 185 yuan/ton and 235 yuan/ton respectively [54]. 5. Import and Export - **Alumina Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, alumina had a net export of 6.97 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 6.75 tons in the previous month to 10.13 tons, and the export volume decreased from 20.78 tons to 17.1 tons. The cumulative net export in the first six months was 107.5 tons. A small net export is expected to become the norm [58]. - **Import Window**: As of August 8, the FOB price of Australian alumina rose 13 US dollars/ton to 374 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 72 yuan/ton. The import window remained closed [61]. 6. Demand End - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 377.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 2560 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [66]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Utilization Rate**: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4419 tons, an increase of 16 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.55% month - on - month to 97.24% [69]. 7. Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [75]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41 tons to 2.62 tons compared to early July, and the delivery inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.98 tons to 8.5 tons. As the spot market loosens, the registration volume of warehouse receipts is expected to increase [77].
氧化铝月报:矿端扰动持续,期价维持宽幅震荡-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 13:20
矿端扰动持续, 期价维持宽幅震荡 氧化铝月报 2025/07/04 王梓铧(联系人) 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号:Z0015924 从业资格号:F03130785 吴坤金(有色金属组) 从业资格号:F3036210 目录 01 月度评估 04 供给端 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 月度评估 月度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格:截止7月4日,月内氧化铝指数较6月3日价格累计上涨1.02%至3011元/吨。因几内亚"禁采风波"没有进一步发酵,氧化铝期价逐步回落。进入下旬,随着宏观情绪改 善,商品整体走强,带动氧化铝期价企稳回升。7月2日,几内亚政府宣布创立铝土矿指数以增加国家税收,或将带动矿价重心上移,驱动氧化铝期价进一步上行。但中期氧化铝 供需过剩格局仍难改,预计反弹空间有限。基差方面,本月基差逐步回落,截止7月4日,山东现货价格较氧化铝主力合约价格升水66元/吨。月差方面,连一和连三月差维持震荡, 截止7月4日,连一和连三月差录得59元/吨。。 ◆ 现货价格:随着利润回升,前期检修产能逐步回归,氧化铝供应重回宽松,驱动6月氧化铝现货价格 ...
突传利好氧化铝大涨 强势状态能持续多久?
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 14:25
Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in alumina prices is primarily driven by disruptions in Guinea's mining policies, particularly the revocation of mining licenses, which has notably impacted supply dynamics [2][10]. Group 1: Supply Disruptions - Guinea's mining authority issued a work stoppage order for the Axis mining area, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, with a 2024 production estimate of 23 million tons [3]. - The revocation of mining licenses for 46 companies in Guinea has escalated supply concerns, leading to a sharp increase in alumina futures prices [3][4]. - Guinea is the largest bauxite producer globally, with its output accounting for 69.4% of China's alumina imports, making it a critical supplier [4]. Group 2: Domestic Production and Capacity - As of May 15, the total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in China is 10,922 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 8,412 million tons per year, reflecting a decrease in the operating rate to 77.02% [6]. - The decline in domestic alumina production is attributed to significant profit drops, with average operating rates falling from 86.1% in March to 84.6% in April [6][7]. - The industry is currently experiencing low operating rates, with planned maintenance and project delays contributing to reduced supply pressure [7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Short-term alumina prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and a tightening market, although medium-term oversupply risks persist [8][10]. - The anticipated addition of 1.14 million tons of new alumina capacity in China by 2025, along with 400,000 tons from overseas, may outpace demand growth, leading to potential price pressures [8]. - Key factors to monitor include the ongoing developments in Guinea's mining policies, domestic production capacity changes, and the operating rates of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants [9][10].
供应端扰动支撑盘面上涨,氧化铝要开启逆袭之路?
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 12:45
Core Viewpoint - The recent supply-side adjustments and maintenance in the alumina industry have provided a boost to the market, leading to a rebound in alumina prices, with the main contract surpassing the 3000 yuan mark, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high [2][4]. Supply-Side Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan for high-quality development in the aluminum industry, which includes no new capacity for electrolytic aluminum and alumina in key pollution prevention areas. However, some companies are reportedly circumventing these regulations by launching alumina projects under the guise of "hydroxide alumina" [4]. - Several alumina companies have begun maintenance and production cuts due to increasing losses, leading to a temporary decline in alumina output and supporting price rebounds. Notable production cuts include a major alumina plant in Shanxi and several plants in Shandong and Guizhou, collectively affecting around 300,000 tons of capacity [5][6]. Inventory and Cost Trends - Recent fluctuations in production have led to a decrease in alumina inventory, with total inventory reported at 3.891 million tons, down 55,000 tons from May 1 [7]. - The cost of alumina production is expected to decline due to falling prices of imported bauxite and caustic soda. The weighted average cost of alumina production in China was reported at 3033.4 yuan per ton, down approximately 125 yuan from the previous month [9][11]. Long-Term Outlook - Despite short-term price support from production cuts, the long-term outlook suggests that alumina supply may remain in surplus due to the potential recovery of previously cut capacities and new capacity releases. The industry is projected to add 2.6 million tons of new capacity in May alone [6][11]. - The demand for alumina may face limitations due to a hard cap on electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which is set at 45.5 million tons, restricting significant increases in alumina demand [6]. Market Sentiment - The alumina market is currently experiencing a rebound due to supply-side disruptions and maintenance, but the overall supply-demand balance remains precarious, with potential for continued oversupply in the future. Market participants are advised to monitor capacity release schedules, bauxite price changes, and demand performance closely [11][12].